May 02, 2007
Après Veto, Le Deluge
Barring catastrophe, today's news cycle will be all about Iraq.
First, let's take a look at what's happening on the ground there. AP reports that the cavalry has arrived in Baghdad, in the form of 4,000 U.S. troops. That leaves one brigade and five months to go before Gen. David Petraeus assesses the efficacy of the Baghdad Security Plan.
More boots on the ground has had a quelling effect on sectarian violence, but not on mass-casualty bombings. Attacks using improvised explosive devices -- the booby traps of the current conflict -- are up fourfold from 2003, and in the past year have killed 425-plus American soldiers, according to Army Times. That figure does not include IED-related fatalities in the other military branches.
Suicide bombings, most of which are carried out by foreign fighters and al-Qaida-linked groups, continue to bedevil Pentagon strategists. Moreover, the bombings no longer seem directed at U.S. troops, making it uncertain that they will cease if or when coalition forces withdraw. Petraeus has been frank in addressing the dilemma, and when he says that a political solution is also required in Iraq, he likely has this in mind.
But Iran has a solution for the attacks on U.S. troops: Get out.
At the regional conference on Iraq that begins this week, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is expected to firmly tell Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that America will never be able to stabilize the situation there, and that the effort is best left to neighboring Arab countries that already are on good terms with the Iraqi government. In the highest-level talks between Iranian and U.S. representatives since the war began, the two will also broach the disputed subect of Tehran's aid to Iraqi insurgents.
Leaders from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Syria will meet with Rice and Mottaki in safety at the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh. Other State Department officials could use some time there as well, USA Today reports: The State Department says employees are returning from Iraq with similiar mental health problems as soldiers. State is planning to survey the 1,400 employees who have served there in an effort to address the problem.
Meanwhile, Iraqi officials are trying to confirm the death of al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Ayyub al-Masri. Though both Baghdad and Washington would likely claim al-Masri's death as a victory, it's unclear that his absence would have any noticeable effect on his organization's efforts to wreak havoc in that country. The death of his predecessor in June, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had no real impact on the situation there.
And back in Washington, President Bush will sit down with Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid this afternoon to discuss how to get a funding disbursement for the war after yesterday's veto of a bill that included a nonbinding timeline for troop withdrawal. (UPDATE, 2:38: The House vote to override the veto failed.) As The Gate reported yesterday, both sides are doing their level best not to crack on their respective positions, but one or both will have to eventually give up something in order to replenish funding for troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. It's not a question of if but when and how, and Americans may get some answers after both parties talk to the press following the 2:25 p.m. meeting. The Gate will be following developments all day.
Posted at 11:45 AM
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Congress, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush
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