June 06, 2007
GOP Debate: Who's Afraid Of Fred Thompson?
Most everyone tuning in to last night's CNN-sponsored Republican forum in New Hampshire already had him on their minds, so former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson did us all a favor by calling out the ghost at the very beginning: "My name is Thompson, Tommy. I’m the candidate, not the actor."
The actor Thompson being, of course, Fred Thompson -- star of "In The Line Of Fire," "Law and Order," and lately, the fevered dreams of many a GOP primary voter. Unfortunately for Tommy Thompson, that joke may have backfired, as National Review's Katherine Jean Lopez points out. By the time the next Republican debate arrives in August, it's a safe bet more than one of the third tier -- Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul -- will have dropped out.
Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, by contrast, have a better chance of hanging in as the two candidates who represent the hard right on immigration reform. Both have passionate followings, and the latest skirmish in the Senate over a compromise overhaul is only angering their supporters.
Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney may be the only sure bets to last through the summer. But purity is still an issue for this party, more so, arguably, than for the Democrats, and none of these men should count on an easy ride to the primaries.
McCain is the most obvious example of this -- he was hit hard and repeatedly on illegal immigration, and while he handled himself confidently, he did not satisfy conservatives who view the compromise bill as amnesty.
McCain's defense of the immigration bill -- "We need to act, and if someone else has a better idea, I’d love to have them give it to us" -- seemed more targeted to a general election audience than to Republicans. McCain and his colleagues who back the proposal are telling constituents that a bill that pleases everyone -- border fence enthusiasts, corporations, immigrant communities -- simply isn't possible.
Later on in the two-hour debate, McCain nearly hit a third rail on the issue by all but accusing those who oppose the bill of being racists. "My friends, we know what we’re talking about is the latest wave of migrants into this country," he said, addressing his attackers on stage. "Hispanics is what we’re talking about, a different culture, a different language."
But he was saved, unexpectedly, by Tancredo, who seemed to reinforce McCain's allegation by speaking the most forcefully about making English the nation's official language and then calling for an end to all legal immigration while the government begins "the process of assimilating people who have come in this great wave of immigration."
Giuliani is also performing as if he's in the general already, and so far, it's working out for him. But to hammer on a well-worn point, watching his candidacy from the perspective of the New York press, which has a starkly different view of him than those who merely know him as The 9/11 Mayor, is like watching two trains move toward each other in slow motion. It's only a matter of time before reviews such as Matt Taibbi's in Rolling Stone last week seep their way into the national televised media.
Romney is still focusing on Republican base voters by dint of necessity. He will have to persuade them to give a one-time liberal who hasn't any real military or national security experience a shot at the Democrats' nominee next year, and it isn't at all clear this is the cycle in which they will do so. NRO's Rich Lowry remains unmoved by the former Massachusetts governor, as do American Spectator and Power Line.
As for Thompson -- Fred Thompson -- candidates articulated a truth some voters don't want to hear, which is that the one-full-term Tennessee senator's views aren't very well known. The Ronald Reagan comparisons, as Richard Cohen pointed out yesterday, have mostly to do with both men having been actors. His new Web site, Imwithfred.com, contains no information on his policy positions. On "Hannity and Colmes" following the debate, Thompson said he never had any desire to run for president, implying he is positioning himself to take on a reluctant savior role when he announces his candidacy (probably) on July 4.
American Spectator was disappointed in Thompson's "Hannity and Colmes" performance. One particular moment in the interview may portend some of the same problems for Thompson that his maybe-future rivals are experiencing: when asked to explain why he once said he supported legalized abortion on a candidates questionnaire, Thompson said he didn't remember filling it out. "I would not be and never have been for a law that says, on the state level, if I were back in Tennessee voting on this, for example, that if they chose to criminalize a young woman, and --"
And Sean Hannity cut him off. Was it an intentional interruption, or was the interviewer only trying to move the conversation forward? You decide.
Graphics: Reuben Dalke
Posted at 12:53 PM
Posted to:
Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Jim Gilmore, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, WH 2008
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