June 27, 2007
Iran On Road To Democracy? Thank Ahmadinejad.
Regime change is Washington's policy on Iran, and thanks to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the White House may just get its wish.
The oil-rich nation enacted fuel rationing this morning, sparking attacks on gas stations and further widening a growing rift between Iranians and Ahmadinejad's regime. The belligerent yet strangely charismatic leader is now deeply unpopular in his country, where a burgeoning pro-democracy movement appeared to be taking hold just before Ahmadinejad was elected two years ago on an anti-poverty, anti-corruption platform.
Instead of delivering sorely needed economic reforms -- Iran is on the precipice of a financial crisis, which the fuel rationing is meant to curtail -- Ahmadinejad landed his countrymen in the cross hairs of the United States. Never mind that Defense Secretary Robert Gates has sternly denied plans to invade Iran. Iranians fear becoming the next Iraq, and for propaganda purposes, Ahmadinejad has done little to persuade them otherwise.
The heavy hand of Iran's military and security forces means a "soft revolution" of the kind envisioned by the Bush administration remains a distant possibility, despite widespread discontent with Ahmadinejad and the arguably more powerful mullahs. The New York Times reported on Sunday that Tehran was engaged in an unusually fierce crackdown on suspected dissidents, with 150,000 reportedly rounded up in a sweep against un-Islamic clothing.
But despite its anti-Israel, anti-U.S. bluster, Tehran seems to be bending to some political realities. Iran has invited a team of inspectors from the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency in an effort to head off a collision with the world body, which is threatening an economic freeze. The country continues to assert its right to enrich uranium for fuel -- it is unable to refine the bulk of its oil -- but P-5 nations such as China and Russia, which were late to the table on sanctions, would likely accept an enrichment program closely monitored by IAEA inspectors.
In addition, Ahmadinejad surprised his critics earlier this week by agreeing to meet with more than 50 economists who warned in an open letter that his policies would lead to Iran's financial ruin. The country's president is under enormous domestic pressure to alleviate unemployment and rising costs, and has reportedly been ordered by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to back off on his nuclear threats.
None of this means Iran will soon see a second Tehran Spring. But it appears that fear of isolation and fiscal crises may do more to open up Iran's government than Iranians' love of freedom, as the White House frequently puts it. In other words -- and this lesson is playing out in the Palestinian territories as well -- money talks.
Posted at 1:36 PM
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Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
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