August 13, 2007
A Few Reasons To Heart Huckabee
We've never understood why Mike Huckabee hasn't fared better in the GOP primary contest. From his resume (Arkansas governor, rocker) to his bio (Baptist preacher, lost 110 pounds) to his age (52), the witty and likeable Huckabee seems to have all the goods for a presidential run.
Which is why the Other Man From Hope's surprise second-place finish at the Iowa Republican Straw Poll could potentially shake up the race. In political circles, the nonbinding vote is said to be the best money can buy. Unlike much of his competition, Huckabee didn't have the cash to bus in supporters. His tent wasn't air-conditioned. The Club for Growth was running a TV ad in the Ames/Des Moines market accusing Huckabee of raising taxes on nursing home beds. And still, Huckabee persuaded 737 people to vote for him gratis (the campaign was able to pay for 1,850 supporters' tickets).
That Huckabee, who still doesn't have national name recognition, was able to pull it off is a testament to his attractiveness as a candidate. Now he will have to leverage that success to turn his bid for the GOP nod into an insurgent campaign that catches fire -- and campaign donations.
Huckabee can count on an assist from Sam Brownback, who finished third with 15 percent of the 14,000 votes cast. Both have been going after straw poll winner Mitt Romney's record of shifting positions on abortion and homosexuality. It seems to be working; as the Los Angeles Times pointed out this morning, Brownback's and Huckabee's votes combined exceeded those won by Romney.
Observers warn there are a number of reasons not to place bets based on the straw poll. The turnout was lower than in years past, Republicans there are unhappy with the GOP field and it's pretty clear Iowans punished national polling front-runners Rudy Giuliani and John McCain for turning down an opportunity to kiss their rings. But those factors mainly sully Romney's win, not Huckabee's showing.
The former Massachusetts governor's victory was a foregone conclusion; he's placing most of his chips on the early primary states because his national polling numbers lag Giuliani's by double digits. Huckabee hasn't had much press or cash and still he beat out his ideological twin Brownback, who had been robocalling Iowans with an attack on Romney and offered the only air-conditioned tent on Saturday.
Huckabee may also be benefiting from disillusionment with Fred Thompson. Republicans who eagerly anticipated his entrée into the race are now tapping their heels as they wait for the actor-statesman to get in, already. In a new National Journal poll of political insiders, 58 percent of Republicans anointed Thompson the most overhyped candidate. The "most underestimated" honors went to -- you guessed it -- Huckabee.
That Huckabee and Brownback placed so well indicates cultural issues like abortion are very much on the table, even in a race dominated by the Iraq war and economic concerns like health care. The two candidates run on their faith more than anyone in the GOP field, but where they depart is key. Brownback takes the more intellectually consistent but politically suicidal position of opposing both abortion and capital punishment. Huckabee is joined by nearly all the GOP and Democratic candidates in favoring the death penalty.
Huckabee has an easygoing manner, and as the New York Times notes today, is effortlessly funny. He's shown an ability to work with Democrats on issues where there's bipartisan support. With the GOP electorate so dispirited, charm and likeability can only help.
The top tier's lead over Huckabee in national polls does appear insurmountable, but with the field already shifting (Tommy Thompson dropped out last night) he may have a shot at vaulting into that elite circle, with some help from the media.
See NationalJournal.com's series on the candidates' autobiographies for more on Huckabee and the rest of the field.
Photo Illustration: Reuben Dalke
Posted at 1:40 PM
Posted to:
Campaigns, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, WH 2008
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