August 10, 2007
Amesin' For A Win
This weekend, political junkies and the GOP faithful will have their eyes glued on a small, quaint city smack in the middle of Iowa. Ames, population 52,000, is home to Iowa State University, soybean fields and Skunk River. In politics, however, it's known primarily for its influential* GOP presidential straw poll.
The relevance of Ames gets an asterisk this year, in part because two of the Republican Party's top contenders -- former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain -- have opted not to participate in the contest. Another cloud overshadowing Iowa's prominence in the 2008 election is the rush of other states to move their primary dates up to January and early February.
Despite Giuliani's and McCain's decisions to skip the Ames contest, the rest of the field is soldiering on with Iowa-focused campaigns, and most of the momentum is resting with Mitt Romney.
The latest polls from ABC News/Washington Post [PDF], American Research Group, Research 2000 [PDF] and the University of Iowa [PDF] show the former Massachusetts governor in the lead among Iowa GOP caucus-goers. Part of Romney's appeal may be the huge amounts of time and resources he has poured into the state as part of his early campaign strategy. He's run countless ads, spent ample time hobnobbing with the locals and even brought his family along to tour the state, Griswold-style in a Winnebago.
Those efforts will probably pay off. Iowa voters in the ABC/Post poll deemed Romney the most likable of the GOP field and the hardest-working campaigner in their state. NationalJournal.com's Poll Track has more analysis of those numbers.
But the Ames contest is not a poll in the traditional sense, and what will probably work most in Romney's favor is not his likability among voters, but the sheer amount of money he has to spend luring them to Ames this weekend.
The straw poll is actually a fundraising event for the Iowa Republican Party. To participate, voters must pay a $35 fee and find some way to get to the city. Lucky for them, most of the campaigns offer to cover the entrance fee and, particularly in Romney's case, give them a free ride to the event. Thus, the Ames contest is less a poll than a show of might for the campaigns. He who can spend the most tends to win the most (and every straw poll since it began in 1979 has predicted the eventual GOP caucus winner). With Romney leading the entire GOP field in dollars (and second-place Giuliani out of the running), it stands to reason that he will come out on top.
Still, there are 10 other GOP candidates on the ballot in Ames, and they aren't simply giving in to the field's Goliath.
Sam Brownback, for example, may not have the money, but he apparently has God on his side. The Kansas senator has his very own (unofficial) "Prayer Coordinator," who is tasked with rounding up otherworldly support (namely, prayers) for Brownback's prospects in the Ames contest.
Another Republican candidate with holy ties, Baptist minister and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, is taking a different approach. Last month, he issued what sounded like a dire warning to Iowans who fear the Feb. 5 "national primary" will diminish their standing in presidential politics. At a campaign stop outside of Iowa City, he told Hawkeye voters that if they simply follow the national polls -- which show Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Romney at the top -- "those candidates will say, 'We'll just stay on the coasts.'"
If money, prayers and thinly veiled threats don't do the trick, there's always unbridled optimism. Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, who is putting nearly all of his eggs in the Ames basket, recently told NBC News that he'd be "shocked" if he lost the straw poll. (Hopefully he's got some smelling salts on hand for this weekend.)
Indeed, the Des Moines Register's David Yepsen, in an impassioned defense of the straw poll Sunday, predicted that "the big battle is for the second- and third-place finishes." He surmised that Brownback's steady attacks on Romney and appeals to social conservatives would beat out Tommy Thompson's ambitious, 99-county tour of the state. But Huckabee's also going into the race confident, boasting to the Washington Times yesterday: "I think there's a good chance I'll be fighting for the top slot" by the time of the state caucus.
In addition to pointing out who's hot, the poll will also draw national attention to who's not -- and that could mean a welcome whittling down of the field. Some of the smaller players will use the opportunity to reassess their chances and bow out if they don't feel they can compete. However, some of the little guys who are there to raise awareness of certain issues or shake up the establishment aren't likely to leave. For example, libertarian-leaning GOP candidate Ron Paul, who launched his debut round of ads in the Hawkeye state this week, is probably in for the long haul regardless of where he fares after Saturday.
The Washington Post and ABC News have handy overviews of how the straw poll works and why it's so highly regarded. The Des Moines Register reports on how the votes will be counted this weekend.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and Bloomberg News have previews of the straw poll, while Capitol News Service offers a local view. Even absentee Giuliani is weighing in on how the contest will end.
Posted at 1:06 PM
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Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson
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