August 22, 2007
Bush Backs Al-Maliki, Hints War Will Continue Past Petraeus Report
UPDATED.
In a speech before a room of supportive U.S. veterans, President Bush today issued a stinging rebuke to critics of political progress in Iraq.
"Maliki is a good man with a difficult job and I support him. It is not up to the leaders in Washington, D.C., to determine whether he will remain in his position. That is up to the Iraqi people who live in a democracy and not a dictatorship," the president said to thunderous applause.
Bush was referring to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has been accused of favoring the Shiite bloc in Parliament as well as turning a blind eye to the carnage Shiite militias like that run by Muqtada al-Sadr have been inflicting on Iraqi Sunnis. War critics and supporters alike have questioned al-Maliki's ability to govern, and recent news reports portrayed the president as backing away from the embattled Iraqi leader. But Bush seemed to put to bed speculation that he would accede to an attempt to have al-Maliki replaced.
The president was speaking at the Veterans of Foreign Wars national convention in Kansas City. A few politicians seeking to succeed him in 2008 -- Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama -- addressed the VFW earlier this week with criticisms of the way the war has been conducted. Bush is already being dismissed as a highly unpopular lame duck because of Iraq, but none of that was apparent today, as Bush delivered a fiery and impassioned argument for seeing the war through.
The president pointed to conflicts that were more than familiar to nearly every veteran in attendance. Ordinary Americans, their leaders and those who fought in World War II, the Korean War and the Vietnam War could see no end in sight at some point in those struggles, Bush said.
"On the outset of World War II there were only two democracies in the Far East: Australia and New Zealand. Today, most are free," the president said. Noting that the forms of government and religions of the people vary among those countries, Bush continued, "Yet for all their differences, the free nations of Asia all share one thing in common: Their governments derive their authority from the consent of the governed."
Bush has drawn parallels to WWII in defending the Iraq war on previous occasions, and has mostly been greeted with skepticism. He sought today to cast the Iraq war against much bloodier wars -- WWII and the Korean war -- that eventually produced democratic allies for the U.S. The Vietnam War is often invoked by critics of the engagement in Iraq, but Bush sought to use the U.S. withdrawal from that conflict as an instructive warning.
"Then as now, people argued the real problem was America's presence and that if we would just withdraw, the killing would end," Bush said. Referring in part to the genocide that followed in Cambodia after the U.S. drawdown, the president told the roomful of veterans, "The world would learn just how costly these misimpressions would be."
Foreign policy experts critical of Bush's administration of the war took umbrage with the comparison.
"The president made a big deal about the genocidal violence that swept through Southeast Asia in the wake of the American withdrawal. The fact is these things happened because the United States left too late, not too early," said Steven Simon, a counterintelligence director in the Clinton administration.
Simon was among those speaking in a conference call with reporters organized by the National Security Network, which is critical of Bush's foreign policies and the war in Iraq.
Simon argued that America's prolonged stay in Vietnam permitted the expansion of the conflict into Laos and Cambodia, which in turn created the conditions for the Khmer Rouge's campaign of starvation and executions.
Said Rand Beers, a counterterrorism adviser to the Bush White House who quit in protest days before the invasion of Iraq, "The longer we keep up this dependency we have created in Iraq, the more difficult it will be for the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own future." Also likening the situation to the Vietnam War, he added, "We have an opportunity to create the basis for a strategic withdrawal that tries at the same time to create" conditions that "lead to stability. The longer we wait, the more difficult it will be for us to be able to withdraw in a planned, deliberate fashion."
Bush and his critics are trying to convince Americans that their side is right as the clock winds down on a comprehensive report on security and political progress in Iraq. Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker will deliver the assessment to Congress on Sept. 11 or 12, the White House says. The two are expected to find some significant gains in the counterinsurgency effort, but disarray on the political front.
However, a recent op-ed by seven active-duty soldiers who've served in Iraq has cast doubt on some positive reports on military progress.
"In terms of military manpower, the president hasn't made the commitment to the war in light of the cataclysmic consequences he keeps referring to," said Lawrence Korb, an assistant secretary of defense in Ronald Reagan's administration. "If you believe that military involvement is required, then why was the surge as limited as it was?"
In 2005, about 120,000 American troops were serving in Iraq. Last June, when the "surge" was fully implemented, troop levels were up to around 160,000. More than 3,700 U.S. service members have died in Iraq. By contrast, more than 54,000 of the 1.7 million U.S. troops who served in the Korean War, also known as "The Forgotten War," were killed.
Earlier this summer, Bush began placing a heavier emphasis on al-Qaida-affiliated fighters' growing presence in Iraq. But critics contend that al-Qaida is only there because of the mismanaged war. The argument Bush gave today stressed the bloody civil war and/or genocide many believe will follow a withdrawal of U.S. troops without a political reconciliation in Iraq. The speech also indicated that the administration has no intentions of drawing down forces, no matter what the Petraeus report says or how Congress reacts.
"We are still in the early hours of the current ideological struggle," the president said, "but we know how the others ended, and that knowledge helps guide our efforts today."
The NSN group argued that full-on genocide would be preventable if the Bush administration would realize that political stability isn't possible without the aid of Iraq's neighbors, namely Syria and Iran.
"One would think" a functional government "would be among this administration's chief priorities," Korb said. "The problem has been that the United States can't convince these two countries to help America stabilize Iraq as America seeks to destabilize them."
There are signs al-Maliki, who is attending a conference in Syria, is willing to strike out and forge those alliances on his own. In response to signals that Washington is backing away from his premiership, al-Maliki said, "Those who make such statements are bothered by our visit to Syria. We will pay no attention. We care for our people and our constitution and can find friends elsewhere."
But questions surrounding al-Maliki's leadership may just be incidental. "Maliki represents the basic thrust of Shia politics. It's the Shia who run the country. For them, national reconciliation as we define it is not in the cards, because national reconciliation for them not surprisingly requires justice," Steven said. "I don't see the basic dynamics of Iraqi politics as opening the door to the national reconciliation we need.
"It's going to be ugly," he concluded, "but that's just how it's going to be."
Posted at 3:00 PM
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Bush Administration, David Petraeus, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush
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