August 17, 2007
Iraq: Depends On Your Definition Of 'Progress'
In less than a month now, Gen. David Petraeus is scheduled to appear before Congress and deliver his much-anticipated progress report on Iraq. So far, there have been mixed signals coming from the experts and generals on the ground in the run-up to Petraeus' Sept. 15 deadline.
On one hand, a growing number of skeptics appear to be coming around to the troop surge implemented this year, citing several indications that the military buildup has helped lower casualties, thwart attacks and convince locals to join the fight against al-Qaida. Many generals, however, have approached these gains with cautious optimism, warning that the surge still needs more time and that September may be too soon to tell whether it's working or not.
Just this week, the deadly bombings in northern Iraq dealt a major blow to the security effort. And recent reports that U.S. troop deaths declined last month were coupled with other reports saying civilian casualties were on the rise.
Then there's the political situation, which is perhaps the biggest hurdle facing President Bush and his allies on the Hill.
After the Iraqi parliament adjourned for a monthlong recess at the beginning of August, a seemingly endless string of bad news began to flow out of Baghdad. Lawmakers had left without completing a number of key bills. The largest Sunni voting bloc was breaking away for good. About half of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Cabinet members were abandoning him, too.
This morning there was one glimmer of hope emerging from Baghdad: the announcement of a new Shiite-Kurdish alliance aimed at reconciling two of Iraq's largest factions amid the deepening political crisis. But the Sunni bloc is still refusing to take part. "We have lost hope, frankly, that this coalition will be the ideal solution to the strangling political crisis that the country is going through," Sunni lawmaker Abdul Kareem Samarrae told al-Hurra television, according to the Washington Post.
Meanwhile, American skeptics aren't counting on a breakthrough any time soon. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll [PDF] released yesterday indicates that, while Americans might be seeing evidence of military progress on the ground, that hasn't changed their negative views toward the war in general.
Indeed, it seems there may be little Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker can say next month that will change the public's mind about withdrawal. Nearly half told pollsters they believe the U.S. military is making progress in bringing security to Iraq, but 64 percent said they are still opposed to the war -- and about half said they can't be swayed from their disapproval. Why? A lack of faith in the Iraqi government may have something to do with it. About seven in 10 said they don't think leaders are holding up their end of the bargain.
Perhaps most worrisome of all for Petraeus, whose favorability ratings are higher than those of Bush or Congress, is the fact that 72 percent of respondents said their views of the war wouldn't change if he delivers a sunny report next month, and another 53 percent said they didn't trust the general to give an accurate assessment without inflating the results.
See today's Poll Track (subscription) for more analysis of that poll.
(Defense Department photo by Staff Sgt. D. Myles Cullen, U.S. Air Force)
Posted at 12:25 PM
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David Petraeus, Iraq
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