August 09, 2007
Pakistan: An Inconvenient Autocracy
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's intervention this morning may have averted a worsening of the political crisis in Pakistan, but that nation's troubles, which in many ways are linked to the U.S.'s, are far from over.
According to Financial Times sources, it's likely Rice "underlined the negative impact of declaring an emergency and how this would affect Gen. [Pervez] Musharraf's image in the US Congress." Impatience with Pakistan's ineffectiveness at quelling the Taliban and al-Qaida insurgencies along its border is palpable in Congress, and taking a star turn in the presidential campaigns as well.
The death knell for Musharraf's rule is only getting louder, and serves as a useful reminder of President Bush's conveniently flexible definitions of freedom and democracy, two of the mainstays of his presidency.
In 1999, Musharraf led the military coup that knocked then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from power. The reason? Sharif, with Washington's backing, had embarked on a make-nice program with India after a rivalry over Kashmir began dangerously ratcheting up. Musharraf had been ready to take on Indian troops and seize control of the disputed region once and for all. Instead, he was ordered to pull out.
After the bloodless coup was completed, Musharraf installed himself as Pakistan's president while remaining head of the country's military. Calls to restore civilian rule from the Clinton administration, Britain, Japan and the EU went unheeded. Yet another Pakistani military dictatorship was born.
Following the 9/11 attacks, Musharraf opted to pledge his allegiance to the U.S.-led war on terror, committing his troops to root out terrorists in the mountainous shared border with Afghanistan. Since then, Washington has doled out about $1 billion a year to his military, the New York Times reported in the spring. The results have not been impressive.
Politically, Musharraf is a secular moderate, which Washington would clearly prefer over an Islamist. The bulk of the Pakistani electorate agrees, except they want Musharraf out too, after several broken pledges to disentangle himself from the military and a rather desperate plan to keep himself in power for another term.
On the other side of the embattled general are the Islamists who want Pakistan to be run according to Sharia law. The last few months have been bloody, as the president-general fends off attacks from all sides.
The White House is largely powerless to step in. Musharraf is the devil they know, and while officials opposed the constitutional crackdown he was mulling earlier, they also may not want to see a new election, after getting burned by the Palestinian elections last year.
Improbable as it may seem, Pakistan's best shot at moving closer to democracy may be a government run jointly by Musharraf and exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The two reportedly met in Abu Dhabi last month to discuss a power-sharing deal -- a concession from Musharraf that his grip on authority is waning.
Otherwise, Musharraf faces a constitutional battle over whether he can even run for re-election, made worse for him by the fact that a supremely ticked off chief justice, whom the president attempted to depose earlier this year, will be presiding over the matter.
Posted at 4:42 PM
Posted to:
Afghanistan, Al-Qaida, Asia, Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Pakistan, Terrorism
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