September 04, 2007
GAO Iraq Report More Positive Than Expected, But Still Grim
According to the new Government Accountability Office report [PDF] on progress in Iraq, 11 of the 18 political and security benchmarks set by Congress have not been met. That's a welcome development, considering an earlier draft indicated efforts on 15 fronts were failing.
According to the report, analysts revised their draft assessments after some back-and-forth with the State Department and DOD. For instance, GAO had initially characterized goals for the training and readiness of Iraqi brigades in Baghdad as "not met." But after "the U.S. commander embedded with the units attested to their fighting capabilities," and with the help of additional data, GAO upgraded its rating to "partially met."
An AP report earlier said GAO revised its ratings after "substantial pushback" from the White House. A GAO spokeswoman denied that was the case, and pointed to the report's explanation that the ratings were changed based on new or overlooked information. AP has since swapped the "pushback" characterization to "substantial resistance."
While recent developments such as the tentative power-sharing compromise did help shape the final product, the overall picture remains predictably grim.
The White House largely dismissed the report as irrelevant. "It will be more useful to look forward to the testimony of Ambassador [Ryan] Crocker and General [David] Petraeus next week, as well as the president's report, for a more thorough picture of the current status in Iraq and recommendations for the future," spokesman Tony Fratto said.
According to the GAO report, the Pentagon seems to have tried to persuade the congressional watchdog that sectarian violence is decreasing. But the evidence that those clashes are diminishing in such a way that they would continue to drop off beyond a withdrawal of U.S. forces is practically nonexistent. GAO concludes that "trends in sectarian violence are unclear" because "the perpetrator's intent is not always clearly known." Apparently, the dead bodies found every day in the streets almost never come with a note attached explaining why they were killed. GAO also predicts that "levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high over the next six to twelve months."
As we noted earlier today, a drawdown on top of the necessary and expected one next spring, when the "surge" troops start rotating out, is unlikely so long as President Bush conditions it on stability in the country. Bush's surprise visit to Anbar province was meant to highlight the very real gains in security there, while paying little mind to the bloodshed and chaos in the rest of the country. General Petraeus acknowledged as much in a conversation with Katie Couric relayed to Howard Kurtz of the Washington Post.
Bush is determined not to allow a withdrawal that's followed by all-out civil war to happen on his watch. There are questions as to whether he can physically keep the war going for the duration of 2008. The GAO gives the New Way Forward worse than a failing grade, with success on just three of the benchmarks (protection for minority parties, infrastructure for the Baghdad Security Plan as well as 32 of 34 of the Joint Security Stations there) and mixed results for four (formation of regions, readying brigades for Baghdad operations, keeping insurgent elements out of forces in Baghdad, and allocating and spending revenues on reconstruction efforts). Efforts to combat sectarianism and political power-grabbing may not be working, but Bush's reaction to that might be to double down, not fold.
It's likely the White House is already familiar with Petraeus' and Crocker's findings, which they are expected to deliver a week from now. Judging by the way Bush is hanging his hat on their assessments, we can expect a slightly sunnier report on progress in Iraq next week that trumpets the developments in Anbar but provides no clear path to replicating that success in the mixed or Shiite-dominated regions.
The GAO report presents other obstacles for the White House. One is that the Iraqi army units ready to fight without U.S. assistance actually decreased from March to July. The White House will have to reconcile that with its claim that security is improving across the board. In addition, Iraqis still lack reliable access to water and electricity, which even the administration concedes is unacceptable four and a half years into the war. GAO found that Iraq's central ministries spent just $1.5 billion of the $6.5 billion allocated to them for rebuilding and other infrastructure needs. Analysts doubted the remainder could be spent by the end of the fiscal year, Dec. 31.
Maybe the key to solving the Iraq puzzle lies outside of Washington -- say, in Belfast. In a rather mysterious development, representatives from Iraq's warring factions, including, reportedly, anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, hammered out a reconciliation with the aid of people who'd know. Representatives from the peace efforts in Northern Ireland and South Africa advised the Iraqis in a secret, four-day summit in Finland. Dubbed "The Helsinki Agreement" [PDF], the negotiators committed to an independent and apolitical criminal justice system and "the full participation" of all Iraqi factions and parties.
It's not clear whether the agreement is binding or how it would be implemented. A query to the Helsinki-based Crisis Management Initiative, which hosted the conference, was not immediately returned.
For now and the foreseeable future, prospects for Iraq are grim. It will be hard, though, to ignore the findings of Petraeus and Crocker if they are more upbeat. Other commanders on the ground say that a withdrawal in the near future will obliterate the gains made this summer. Sen. John Warner, who made a full conversion to the lost-cause crowd a little more than a week ago, may inspire more Republicans to do the same. Likewise, some Democrats may feel less pressured to stay with their get-out-now base thanks to Rep. Brian Baird.
Posted at 6:06 PM
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Bush Administration, Congress, Iraq, Middle East
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