September 06, 2007
The FOX Republican Debate; Thompson's Tease On Leno
Last night, the GOP candidates for president once again gathered before the podiums -- this time in New Hampshire -- to talk Iraq, immigration, the economy and more. As always, The Gate was watching.
Score a few for McCain. It's hard to envision the Arizona senator getting much further in this race after the losses he's suffered this summer, and yet it's equally hard to accept that John McCain's candidacy might be over so soon. He has the most storied military and foreign policy experience out of everyone on that stage, and all the change vs. experience talk this cycle has obscured the fact that this election is really about both.
Experience is the change. The Iraq war was planned and managed by civilians with no substantive military experience who ignored the advice of the Colin Powells and Brent Scowcrofts of the nation. Yes, McCain supported the invasion, but he was among the first to spot flaws in the postwar planning, and he says he's committed to leaving Iraq better than it was, which means he's both critical and supportive of ongoing operations there.
Whereas his earlier platform on Iraq too closely echoed the perceived blindness from the White House, costing him independent voters, McCain seems to have found a more credible argument for the war. "The people in New Hampshire are sad and angry over our failures in Iraq," McCain said last night. "I want our troops home. But I want them home with honor, otherwise we will face genocide and catastrophe in the region." The first point is clearly true, and voters may be coming around to the second point. Just ask the Democrats, who've been forced to temper their get-out-now calls.
After President Bush's military and diplomatic advisers deliver their comprehensive report on the surge next week, the White House is going to argue that U.S. troops need to continue security operations to give Iraq's fractured political blocs one more go at reconciliation. If Americans can be persuaded of that, will McCain also be able to persuade them that he's the best candidate to assume control over the war in 2009?
'Bout time you got here. About 10 minutes before the debate started, Fred Thompson said a semi-official hello to the audience with a 30-second spot on FNC to announce that he plans to announce he is formally entering the race. Earlier in the day, Thompson was in Los Angeles taping yet another announcement on the "Tonight Show," to the chagrin of some voters who wanted to see him at the New Hampshire debate. Jim Geraghty had the transcript just before 11 p.m., but we stuck around to see it for ourselves.
It's not clear if Thompson's camp intended for his appearance to remind voters of Arnold Schwarzenegger's "Tonight Show" announcement, but the excitement factor this time around was pretty low. "The Terminator" star's decision to run for California governor was a genuine surprise; Thompson's announcement suffers from voters wondering why he put off the inevitable for so long.
Thompson was serious -- very, very serious. There was little effort to charm or rally, which begs the question of why he chose that venue in the first place. And he said a few things that might give already-concerned Fred Heads some pause. Among them:
"We've done it a few months, where a lot of people have been working on it since they were in the choir in high school."
He's said this before, and it comes off sounding like he's running for president as an afterthought and adds fuel to those questions about his seriousness and work ethic.
"The media and a lot of people make their living off of politics nowadays, and that's fine. But if I can get out with the folks...."
That's sort of been the pundits' point all along. But never mind -- he's right. The only way to tell whether he can reshape this race is to get all in, which he does today in Iowa.
On Iraq: "Saddam would still be there.... His two sons would still have been doing what they were doing...."
Saddam and his sons, really? The political debate on the war surpassed that point ages ago, it seems. He goes on to say that failure is not an option in Iraq. Now all he has to do is explain how exactly to avoid that scenario.
Quick-draw Mitt. By 9:32, the Romney camp had released two lengthy oppo sheets on Rudy Giuliani's immigration platform. Only voters who live in early primary states have reason to pay the campaigns any mind at this point in the game, rendering national polling fairly useless. Mitt Romney believes his real competition is Giuliani. Giuliani believes his true rival is Hillary Rodham Clinton. Any chance that could come back to haunt the former New York City mayor?
When did the Pillsbury Doughboy get into this race? We're pretty sure that adorable giggling belonged to Tom Tancredo, mostly because it followed every immigration-related quip. Was someone down in that podium tickling his tummy? Better not be an illegal.
Huckabee breaks out. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee needed to deliver on the promise of his second-place finish in the Iowa Republican Straw Poll, and thanks in part to Ron Paul, deliver he did. Paul is the Ross Perot of this field, but his rivals ought to appreciate the batting practice they're getting with this anti-war libertarian. Paul and Huckabee offered up a concentrated version of the overall Iraq debate, which we will abridge as follows:
Paul: The war was illegal.
Huckabee: We broke Iraq. It's our responsibility to fix it.
Paul: The neoconservatives broke it. They ought to fix it.
(The Gate: Does he mean let's give Paul Wolfowitz a helmet and an AK-47 and drop him over Baghdad?)
Huckabee: You mean we have to fix it. We're one country.
Paul: How long are we going to be there? How long do we pay to save face?
Without declaring either the winner of this argument, Huckabee appeared confident and in command here, and we'll soon find out if voters start to see the potential in him that conservative pundits now see.
Mixed bag for Romney. Campaign watchers still have trouble taking Romney's gains in Iowa and New Hampshire seriously because of all the money he's been throwing around in those states and his poor finish in national polls. He showed early on in the evening that his dogged campaigning is paying off, scoring with the audience on immigration. Either his delivery is improving or we're just now getting used to his throwback style of square-jawed pol after more than a decade of scruffy charmers in the White House.
Later on in the evening, though, he reminded us of why he needs improvement in the first place: An emotional father of an Iraq veteran tells him that his goofy comparison of his sons' work on the campaign trail to that of troops overseas was wrong, and Romney seems momentarily stunned. There is just no good explanation, and sometimes "I'm sorry" isn't enough.
Also, did anyone else catch the daggers McCain was throwing at Romney? Don't see future running mates there.
New York, New York, it's a wonderful town. After the debate, GOP consultant Frank Luntz quizzed a group of Granite Staters for FOX News, and they all expressed disappointment in Giuliani. His two-pronged bio of 9/11 Mayor and Turnaround Mayor appears to be wearing thin. Don't be surprised if you see a clip of this quote played a lot: "The reality is, I'm not running on what I did on 9/11." Beg pardon? We get why he's stepping away from his 9/11 profile after he incited the anger of Ground Zero workers, but that was probably a step too far.
There's one notably clever thing Giuliani is doing, though. Realizing that the rest of the country thinks New York City is from outer space, he's using that perception to his advantage. On his prior platforms on immigration and the like, Giuliani's argument is that the Big Apple is like no place else in the country and special governing rules apply. Since few can argue with the end result -- a prosperous and humming metropolis -- that's a pretty smart tack to adopt.
Brownback's X-ray vision. What's with the squinting? Does Sam Brownback need glasses? Rich Lowry said a while ago the Kansas senator should drop out; maybe the squinting meant Brownback was looking for a reason to stay.
Final thoughts. Where is Romney's plan for Iraq? He wobbled on that front. Lowry thinks he needs more schooling on the subject (at this late date? Yikes.), and The Caucus didn't see anything concrete there, either.
Those New Hampshire voters queried by Luntz were surprised by McCain's performance and gave him the night. They are not alone. Is there enough oxygen left for him to resurge? The smart money probably says no.
Photo Illustrations: Reuben Dalke
Posted at 10:38 AM
Posted to:
Campaigns, Fred Thompson, Iraq, John McCain, Middle East, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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