October 03, 2007

Is Kim Jong Il Coming In From The Cold?

It's a banner week for Korean diplomacy. The yearslong six-party negotiations have at last resulted in a promise by North Korea to disable all of its nuclear facilities by the end of the year. And in separate talks, the two Koreas agreed to stop pointing weapons at each other (figuratively, though, not literally).

One can't blame the Wall Street Journal for optimistically comparing this week's events (subscription) to the thaw between the West and Libya, which voluntarily gave up its nukes and made sufficient amends to be taken off Washington's list of state sponsors of terrorism. As the Journal notes, the world needs a bit of this kind of good news, considering the gathering storm over Iran.

But there may be a cynical devil lurking over many a Korea-watcher's shoulder. And his name is former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton.

In February, when the first tentative accord was reached between the six parties, Bolton led the neoconservative charge in assailing the Bush administration for betraying its own principles. Negotiators were essentially taking Pyongyang at its word, critics said, when history suggested they had not one reason to do so.

Christopher Hill, the State Department's chief nuclear negotiator with North Korea, emphasized today that U.S. officials would be on the ground as the North Koreans shutter their nuclear capacity. According to the agreement, Americans will take the lead in overseeing Pyongyang's progress. Said Hill, "What's very important for people to understand is that we're not in this for partial success. We have to achieve full denuclearization."

It will take time to convince skeptics. The agreement includes a security guarantee -- something Washington previously ruled out in keeping with its "everything on the table" approach toward enemy nations. Critics may say that Kim's regime is successfully blackmailing the world into helping it emerge from economic ruin without giving up very much in return.

Mike Green, who previously handled North Korea for the Bush White House, told Reuters, "It's unlikely they will do one, large disablement step. It's more likely that they will salami slice it but the process could be well under way." In other words, they may drag out the disarmament process in order to keep the carrots coming. And negotiators have yet to broach the 10 or so nuclear weapons North Korea already possesses.

Then again, critics may do well to remember the mantra regarding the Korean nuclear crisis is there are no good options, only less-bad ones. It's safe to say that regime change, the initial goal of the Bush administration, is out, given the Iraq war and the looming threat on Iran. That's not to say an administration can't hope -- how else to explain the endless health fixation on that other communist holdout, Fidel Castro? In recent years, intelligence analysts have speculated on the Dear Leader's well-being as well, with off-shore diagnoses ranging from heart disease to diabetes to senility.

I'm fit! Kim declared today, trying to put to rest renewed speculation following his sallow appearance with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun yesterday. As America may have learned from Cuba, it's best not to hold one's breath here.

The Economist sees one upside to the tentative breakthroughs -- help for the millions of starving North Koreans. As with China, economic growth is seen as the way to bring the Hermit Kingdom out into daylight: the Korea Times agrees, while the Korea Herald urges Roh to maintain caution. The Herald also has a rundown of who's who in North Korea's power elite. Still not convinced Kim Jong Il is coming around? Have some fun with the North Korean Random Insult Generator.

-JANE ROH

Posted at 4:12 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, South Korea, Terrorism
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