October 15, 2007

Putin Delays Iran Visit After All

UPDATED.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will be delaying his trip to Tehran amid concerns of an assassination plot, a news agency reported hours after Putin insisted he would arrive there tonight as scheduled.

According to AP, Iran's official news agency is reporting that "Putin will arrive in Tehran at the head of a delegation tomorrow morning." Neither government offered a detailed explanation.

Earlier today, Putin defiantly insisted that he would press on with the visit, despite intelligence that suicide bombers were targeting him in Tehran. "Of course I am going to Iran," Putin said after talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany. "If I always listened to all the various threats and the recommendations of the special services I would never leave home."

Russia's Interfax news agency had reported that security sources were picking up intelligence on a potential terrorist plot against Putin during his visit. An Iranian official dismissed the report as "part of a psychological war waged by enemies to disrupt relations between Iran and Russia."

Putin is scheduled to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a move akin to -- intentionally or not -- poking Washington in the eye.

There's been a lot of eye-poking from the Kremlin as of late. Putin announced last week that there was no evidence Iran was trying to build a nuclear weapon, and that Russia will "operate on the principle that Iran does not have those plans." On this score, Russia and China are both pitted against the other permanent voting Security Council members plus Germany on the issue of Iran's nuclear program.

Washington, convinced Tehran is surreptitiously working to establish itself as the nuclear power in the Middle East, continues to push for tougher sanctions on Iran. A photo-op of Putin and Ahmadinejad in a warm embrace today is sure to encourage administration officials who've already given up on swaying Russia and China to place more energy on unilateral means of stymieing Iran.

Under Putin, Russia can no longer be counted as a steadfast U.S. ally, especially as the former sets out to prove it does not need the latter. Putin's popularity ratings continue to wow, all but assuring he will be allowed to remain in power even after his term as president is up next year, and that Russia's transformation into an autocracy will continue virtually unchecked. As the Iraq war continues to tarnish America's popularity around the globe, a distancing between the U.S. and Russia actually places them on unequal footing -- advantage Moscow.

The ripple effects of this shift in balance are plain. Tehran's news agencies are heralding Putin as "the first Russian president [to visit Tehran] after the glorious victory of the Islamic Revolution of Iran," and reprinting remarks Putin made in Germany that appeared to criticize the U.S.

"To intimidate someone or to create fear within Iran's leadership and the Iranian nation is absolutely futile. Believe me, they have no fear," Putin said in remarks widely reported by Iranian news services and nowhere else.

Despite this renewed chumminess, Russia is still viewed as the dominating bully in its neck of the woods. Tensions are expected to rise at the summit of Caspian Sea nations that begins tomorrow. Azerbaijan in particular is being wooed by the West to build pipelines that bypass Iran and Russia. Meanwhile, Russia and Iran are competing for claims to the Caspian.

Putin is motivated less by animosity toward the West than by a drive to re-establish Russia as a major world power -- even if it does alienate Western allies in the process. Vladimir Yakunin, head of Russia's railways and member of Putin's inner circle, delivered a warning via Der Spiegel last week that criticisms of Moscow's ways would only backfire.

"America and Europe make a big mistake when they interpret Russia's strength as aggression," said Yakunin, whose name is being floated as Putin's successor. "Our people sense the injustice of this criticism, and it leads to a collective rejection of the West."

-JANE ROH

Photos: Cherie A. Thurlby (Putin), Daniella Zalcman (Ahmadinejad)

Posted at 5:24 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Russia, Vladimir Putin
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