October 23, 2007
Values Voters: Better Luck Next Cycle
We're just getting around to this now, but others have made the case already. Ignore those Romney press releases: Mike Huckabee trounced the Republican field at the Values Voters Summit last weekend.
Huckabee came out with 51.3 percent of on-site straw poll voters, followed by Mitt Romney at 10.4 percent and everyone else in the single digits. Romney's camp declared him the big winner based on online voting by Family Research Council members in a poll that's been open since August. Even there, he and Huckabee came out virtually dead even, 27.6 percent to 27.2 percent.
Only FRC members were permitted to vote, and an FRC spokesman said that duplicate votes in the online and on-site polling were eliminated. According to The Caucus, a minimum donation of $1 is required for FRC membership.
Long story short, it's clear by those numbers that the guy with almost no money, organization or national name recognition was the real winner.
"If the Christian majority actually got behind Huckabee, and if they used all the organization that Christians already have, he could do really well," complained Daniel Briggs, a volunteer with Americans United for Life.*
That's a question we've been asking all cycle: Why isn't the evangelical right amassing its forces behind Huckabee, the religious conservative's religious conservative?
Resignation, it seems. Conservatives know which way the wind is blowing, and recent history advises them not to seek out a third-party contender or sit out Election Day. Maybe the primaries used to be about party purity, but that seems no longer the case.
"I was more impressed with the second tier of candidates than I was with the top tier," said Margy Raube of Centreville, Va., for whom the summit was her first significant foray into the campaign. She was joined by most of the attendees in casting a vote for Huckabee, the former Baptist preacher and Arkansas governor.
Three years after the 2004 election, karma, or whatever force it is that acts as an equalizer among foes, has come back to bite the GOP. Some Values Voters attendees said they were surprised to hear that polls show their fellow Republicans aren't happy with their choices. The field is pretty good, they said. It's just that the wrong candidates are getting all the money and support.
Still, even though history tells them it's a losing proposition, some evangelicals are threatening to put up a third-party candidate anyway, particularly if Rudy Giuliani wins the nod. "If we call ourselves Christian, we should vote according to conscience and let the chips fall where they may," said Briggs, who felt strongly negative toward Giuliani and Romney. "If America doesn't want principled leadership, if they want political expediency, that's their decision. But I want to vote for principle, even if that means my candidate won't get elected."
An endorsement from Tony Perkins or James Dobson could finally give Huckabee the pedestal he needs, yet it's unlikely. For establishment evangelicals, Romney has become the Splenda candidate: He doesn't share their faith, but their positions are about the same. Some attendees were more comfortable with this than others.
"I don't have a problem with his values," said Raube, who did not consider Romney, a Mormon, to be a fellow Christian. Others, less so: "When they die they believe they'll inherit their own planet," said Mark Bennett of Arnold, Md.
Both said they would be willing to support Romney only if he won the nomination, with Bennett warning fellow evangelicals off the third-party course. He argued that Giuliani, whose personal life and social positions are anathema to values voters, would make a more suitable candidate for Christians than Romney.
"I was watching the Giuliani speech and there was definitely a little resentment in the crowd. It seems to me that they were bearing resentment toward a person who doesn't necessarily share their abortion stance, but then they come up with a person who doesn't believe at all what Christians believe, and has a completely different perspective on the Bible, and they put him in the top tier," he said.
If evangelicals are betting that once installed in the White House, Romney will feel he owes them for their support, they might be mistaken, several attendees warned.
"I don't think he can speak on his feet without a teleprompter," said Rick Winningham, of Hickory, S.C., voicing a frequent complaint that the former Massachusetts governor lacks authenticity.
"If I trusted him at an issue level I might be able to, for the greater good, get over the faith issue," said Briggs. "But I feel he's flipped on every major issue just before declaring his candidacy. I don't trust him."
It's becoming increasingly clear to religious conservatives that 2008 might simply not be their cycle. It's most likely that the U.S. will retain a significance presence in Iraq beyond this decade, and no one will be surprised if the major health care issues facing the country aren't fully resolved by 2012. With growing economic and security threats from Iran, China and Russia to sort out, it's hard to see how evangelicals' bread-and-butter issues become part of the national political debate again in the foreseeable future.
Even if Huckabee woke up tomorrow with $30 million cash on hand, it's still not clear he could win the GOP nod because of yet another constituency that eclipses social conservatives. "Huckananny" is highly unpopular among pro-business fiscal conservatives because of his record as governor. Small-government conservatives aren't fans of his, either.
On some domestic issues, as we've pointed out, Huckabee's compassionate conservatism makes him sound dangerously similar to some Democrats. Huckabee might be able to prick up evangelicals again, but he could lose immigration and law-and-order conservatives in the process.
RedState's Perico has details of Huckabee's fiscal record.
Photo taken outside Values Voters Summit.
*(Briggs e-mailed on 10/24: "I am a full-time law student at Syracuse University College of Law (Syracuse, NY), and I am only a volunteer intern for Americans United for Life. It is important to note that Americans United for Life is a non-profit; as such, it never comments on political candidates. And, of course, it never endorses any candidates. I apologize for not clarifying this earlier.")
Posted at 1:45 PM
Posted to:
Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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