November 05, 2007
Pakistan: When The Devil You Know Loses His Marbles
UPDATED.
For reasons we've outlined before, what's happening now in Pakistan is both extraordinary and utterly unsurprising. In the unlikely event you missed it, President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has suspended the constitution, declared emergency rule, canned most of the Supreme Court's judges, blacked out independent media and ordered troops to round up dissenters right and left.
Quite the busy weekend for the autocrat Washington warily calls friend and ally.
As many as 3,500 people have been arrested since Saturday, AP reports. Among them is Asma Jahangir of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, who has been placed under house arrest after years of railing against Musharraf's regime and escaping a couple of apparent government-sponsored assassination attempts. Writing in an e-mail to the Economist, Jahangir lamented that Musharraf had finally "lost his marbles."
In a week of putting out fires, the crisis in Pakistan presents an enormously difficult challenge to President Bush and his team. Because of its interest in not only stamping out al-Qaida but keeping it away from Pakistan's nukes, the United States does not have the luxury of completely cutting off financial aid to Musharraf, as the Dutch have already done.
In his first public statement on Musharraf since the crisis erupted, President Bush said, "I asked [Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice] to call him to convey this message: that we expect there to be elections as soon as possible, and that the president should remove his military uniform. Previous to his decision we made it clear that these emergency measures would undermine democracy. Having said that, I did remind [Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan] that President Musharraf has been a strong fighter against extremists and radicals."
Bush addressed reporters alongside Erdogan, who was visiting the White House to discuss the brewing crisis along its border with Iraq.
Rice, meanwhile, addressed reporters on the matter from the West Bank, where she was attempting to broker a long-awaited peace agreement. "We believe that the best path for Pakistan is to quickly return to a constitutional path and then to hold elections," she said. "President Musharraf has said that he will take off his uniform. That would be an important step."
And from China, during a visit to pressure Beijing on Iran's nuclear program, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, "We urge President Musharraf to return his country to law-based, constitutional and democratic rule as soon as possible. We are reviewing all of our assistance programs, although we are mindful not to do anything that would undermine on-going counterterrorism efforts."
Just as they did back in August, both Rice and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband implored Musharraf not to declare a state of emergency and to hold elections as scheduled in January. According to the London Guardian, Musharraf gave them assurances before abruptly reneging, and reportedly did not take their phone calls in the immediate wake of his clampdown.
In closing his announcement of emergency rule [video] on Saturday, Musharraf indicated he was in no mood to take advice from the international community, which overwhelmingly has condemned his actions. "To the critics and idealists against this action, I would like to say please do not expect or demand your level of democracy, which you learned over a number of centuries," he said. "We are also trying to learn, and we are doing well."
That, of course, is clearly not the case. Washington's entreaties for Musharraf to drop his military post have gone unheeded since the Clinton years. Wearing both hats is a violation of Pakistan's constitution, and in September Musharraf said he would finally step down as head of the military, no matter the election outcome. The imposition of emergency rule throws plenty of doubt on that promise, as well as on the power-sharing deal that brought former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto back to her home country for the first time in eight years.
If anything, Musharraf's actions have made him more unpopular than ever, as indicated by Pakistani newspaper headlines referring to this weekend as his "second coup." Though today he promised again to step out of his leadership role in the military after the mid-January election, it's unclear how he would even win election without some serious rigging, as in years past.
If Musharraf's actions are that of a leader desperately clinging to power, the thousands of Pakistani lawyers rallying in the face of club-wielding police is a clear sign that the fallout will not easily be papered over. For now, and for lack of better options, U.S. aid will continue to flow to Pakistan. If Musharraf continues to beat down the pro-democracy activists who want him out of office, the Bush administration will have yet another major diplomatic crisis on its hands.
At this point, President Bush and his administration can do little more than monitor the situation and hope for the best. To risk the understatement of the year, the options are few and unsavory if the situation gets much worse.
Deutsche Welle has a roundup of European press coverage. The Pakistani crisis puts talk of war with Iran into perspective, Time's Joe Klein writes. The National Review has advice for the president on how to wrangle "our S.O.B." And analysts tell Bloomberg News why the extraconstitutional state of emergency is counterproductive to the terrorism fight.
Posted at 4:35 PM
Posted to:
Asia, Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Pakistan, President Bush, Robert Gates
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