December 28, 2007
Why We Fight
Before the Christmas break, we wrote that Americans' dwindling interest in the Iraq war might be perilous to the national interest, as Alasdair Roberts recently contended in Foreign Policy. Now the war on terrorism -- which even critics of President Bush must admit now includes Iraq -- is back in the headlines, thanks to yesterday's tragic events.
The view from Washington is that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a serious kneecap blow to U.S. foreign policy. To quickly review: President Pervez Musharraf, an ally by necessity, is increasingly unpopular at home and for good reason. (People who live under military dictatorships generally do not enjoy the experience.) Meanwhile, there's a virulent strain of anti-Western, Islamic fanaticism seeping through Pakistan at the moment, which means this White House's usually cherished principles of liberty and democracy do not apply.
The Bhutto-Musharraf power-sharing compromise was seen as the most feasible shot at calming Pakistan's restive populace. In Bhutto, Washington saw a more reliable and transparent ally in the war against extremism, in part because of her shady ethical past. She had something to prove.
Now that she's gone, we're back to where we were, and less than two weeks before Pakistan's elections no less. No doubt there is panic in the Beltway today, if only for the dearth of available options now.
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Bhutto Assassination: The Morning After
A roundup of how editorial boards and pundits reacted to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto:
"Bhutto was a flawed and undeniably courageous leader. Her return to Pakistan two months ago raised hopes that her country might find its way toward democracy and stability. Her assassination on Thursday is yet one more horrifying reminder of how far Pakistan is from both -- and how close it is to the brink." -- New York Times
"Ms. Bhutto was the most powerful advocate of secular democracy in her country; she had the courage to confront both Islamic militants and the autocratic government of President Pervez Musharraf.... Her tragic death may open the way to violence and political chaos that could be exploited by al-Qaeda and the Taliban, unless Mr. Musharraf and the country's surviving moderate forces act quickly and wisely." -- Washington Post
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December 27, 2007
Bhutto Assassination: U.S. Policy Unchanged... But For How Long?
UPDATED.
Officials in the Bush administration said that current White House policy toward Pakistan hadn't immediately changed in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination, despite questions about whether President Pervez Musharraf had a role in today's attack.
"U.S. policy has always been based on promoting a... peaceful, moderate country" in Pakistan, said State Department spokesman Tom Casey. "Our efforts have not been focused on any individuals, but on achieving that goal."
President Bush and Musharraf are to speak by phone today. Administration officials are being careful not to go beyond expressing condolences and general condemnations of terrorism as they monitor the delicate political crisis in Pakistan. Fires broke out as Bhutto supporters rioted in the streets. Islamabad declared a "red alert," meaning police were on guard against violent outbreaks related to her death, but stopped short of imposing martial law.
(For our report on Bhutto's assassination and the initial reaction, click here.)
Administration officials said they would offer whatever help Pakistan needed but that they had not been asked to assist in a pending investigation into the attack. If the White House is questioning whether Musharraf could have provided greater security for Bhutto, as it requested, officials aren't saying. Pakistan's military and intelligence services are riddled with Islamic extremists. Whether that is a result of Musharraf's ineptitude or relish for political expediency is another question observers are asking, but that the White House is not -- out loud, anyway.
"We are going to continue working with President Musharraf," Casey said. "We are going to continue working with the PPP [Bhutto's opposition Pakistan People's Party] and other moderate democratic elements in Pakistan to try to bring us all together to achieve those goals."
Casey continued, "We intend to move forward with current policy."
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Breaking: Benazir Bhutto Killed In Attack
UPDATED.
Outraged supporters of Benazir Bhutto have taken to the streets following confirmation that the Pakistani opposition leader was assassinated today, with at least one province placed on emergency alert.
Bhutto had just spoken at a campaign rally in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad, and had gotten into a car when a gunman opened fire. The apparent assassin then blew himself up. There are conflicting reports on how she was killed. Some witnesses said she had been shot in the neck and chest, while a doctor at the hospital that treated her told the New York Times she had shrapnel wounds but would not confirm she had been directly shot.
At least 15 other people were also killed in the attack, according to various news reports. "Police in Sindh have been put on red alert," a police official told Reuters, referring to Bhutto's home province. "We have increased deployment and are patrolling in all the towns and cities, as there is trouble almost everywhere."
Television footage is showing mobs of people setting fires and destroying property in the streets.
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December 21, 2007
...But That Won't Mitigate A Really Bad Decade In Iraq
In his year-end press conference, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced that the Pentagon would not be issuing furlough notices "at this time." The branches of the military have had to lay off employees and cut corners while Congress and the White House tussle over continued war funding. The result has been piecemeal funding for the military, as anti-war lawmakers continue to pressure President Bush to accept a withdrawal deadline.
A June Center for Strategic and International Studies report [PDF] advised the Pentagon to stop requesting funding through war supplementals, which aren't included in the defense budget in order to make actual spending appear smaller than it really is. Total U.S. defense spending is only about 4 percent of GDP -- a very low war-time figure. The constantly cash-strapped military need not be so, the authors conclude, and the Pentagon should be asking for much more money with which to fight the Iraq war, the most pressing security problem facing the country.
Gates seemed to dispute the criticism that his department was lowballing Congress in order to provide political cover for the president. "I actually think we had a very thoughtful conversation with the House Armed Services Committee earlier in the year over what percent of GDP devoted to defense and securing the nation should be. I got the impression from both sides of the aisle that it ought to be about 4 percent," Gates said.
"I will be putting out a letter later this afternoon that basically acknowledges that we have to do some planning because we didn't get all the money" requested from Congress, he added.
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DOD: It Was A Pretty Good Year...
UPDATED
Thanks to the military's performance in Iraq, officials in the Department of Defense have genuine reason to clink glasses as the year winds down, though they know better than to go overboard in their celebrations.
In his year-end press briefing, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that the drawdown of five brigade combat teams (BCTs) by July 2008 was going as planned and should allow for yet more troop reductions. The first of the BCTs returned from Iraq earlier this month.
"My hope is the circumstances on the ground will continue to improve in a way that, when Gen. [David] Petraeus and the Joint Chiefs and Central Command do their analysis in March, will allow a continuation of the drawdown at roughly the same pace as the first half of the year," Gates said in the Pentagon briefing room.
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WTO Issues Decision On Internet Gambling Case
The World Trade Organization issued a decision [PDF] today regarding Antigua and Barbuda's request to impose $3.4 billion in retaliatory measures against the United States for allegedly violating its WTO commitments. The WTO said Antigua can use annual trade sanctions against the U.S. retroactive to April 2006 for the amount of $21 million until the U.S. reaches compliance with the WTO. The WTO also ruled that Antigua's sanctions may target U.S. intellectual property.
"Considering that Antigua and Barbuda were asking for over $3 billion in compensation, and they were only awarded a token $21 million, this decision is a partial victory for the U.S.," said Rep. Bob Goodlatte, R-Va. "However, I remain concerned about how these countries could extract these sanctions from unrelated U.S. companies, like those in the intellectual property and banking industries."
"I will continue to closely monitor this situation and work with other U.S. policymakers and businesses to mitigate the decision's impact on U.S. industries," continued Goodlatte, who sponsored legislation banning online gambling last year.
Greg Frazier, executive vice president of worldwide government policy for the Motion Picture Association of America, warned of possible repercussions from the ruling. "We have made clear from the outset of the case that if Antigua were to suspend its intellectual property rights obligations in retaliation, we believe such a move -- which would be virtually unprecedented in WTO disputes -- would put Antigua at odds with some of its other international obligations as well as raise questions about its eligibility for certain U.S. trade preference programs," he said.
"Also, as a practical matter we have serious questions about how such a decision could be effectively managed to avoid damage beyond the amount of compensation in the WTO decision," Frazier added.
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Mosque Bombing Kills At Least 50 In Pakistan
UPDATED.
At least 50 people were killed in Pakistan today when a bomb exploded inside a mosque during the celebration of Eid al-Adha, a Muslim holiday marking the end of the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.
Worshippers inside the Islamabad mosque were observing the holiday with Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, Pakistan's former interior minister, whose political party has been targeted before. Sherpao and his family were not injured in today's bombing, but he was also targeted in an April suicide attack near Islamabad that killed nearly 30 people.
"It was a massacre," Sherpao told the New York Times. "I can tell you that." Sherpao is running in the parliamentary elections set for mid-January, which will likely change the balance of power in Pakistan. (BBC News has a profile of Sherpao.)
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Earlybird Roundup: Administration Goes To Court Over CIA Tapes
Washington. Despite objections from the Justice Department, the Bush administration will go to court today to discuss the destruction of CIA interrogation tapes.
Congress. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has scheduled pro forma sessions for the Senate over the holidays, keeping it open and thereby preventing recess appointments.
Environment. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said yesterday that he intends to sue the federal government over its refusal to allow states to set their own emissions rules.
Nation. Despite forceful protests from many New Orleans residents, city officials are moving ahead with a plan to demolish four housing developments.
Afghanistan. President Bush and Condoleezza Rice separately expressed concern yesterday about NATO's declining commitment to Afghanistan.
See Earlybird (subscription) for more of this morning's headlines.
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December 20, 2007
Tancredo Drops Out: The Exit Interview
UPDATED.
Neither FOX nor MSNBC bothered to cover Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo's announcement earlier today that he was dropping out of the race for the White House. CNN went to it at first, then cut away so the anchor could discuss the pronunciation of the congressman's surname. This, despite the pivotal role he has played in this cycle's Republican nomination battle.
Reached by phone at his Des Moines hotel room, Tancredo sounded relaxed and content with his decision to close shop. His candidacy, after all, was from the beginning about holding the big-name guys to account on illegal immigration.
"I have dedicated 10 years of my public life to warning the nation of the perilous consequences of massive, uncontrolled illegal immigration," Tancredo told supporters at a press conference this afternoon. "This message unfortunately has fallen on deaf ears in the highest office in the land. Without a president who is committed to securing the nation, we will always remain in jeopardy."
Tancredo's announcement had been expected since yesterday. He said the urgency he felt on illegal immigration compelled him to launch his bid despite what "we knew at the time were incredibly long odds." A nationally obscure figure best known among anti-immigration hardliners, Tancredo said in April that he was entering the race because of "the field, the field."
More on what he told us about Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson after the jump.
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Barton Evaluating Google Merger Implications
A spokeswoman for the House Energy and Commerce Committee told National Journal today that the committee expects a formal response from Google to a recent letter [PDF] from top Republican Joe Barton of Texas concerning Google's proposed $3.1 billion acquisition of Internet advertising server DoubleClick on Friday.
Barton had addressed 24 questions concerning privacy and consumer protection aspects of the deal to Eric Schmidt, chairman and CEO of Google.
"The two staff attorneys who deal with these matters visited Google headquarters earlier this week and have returned to Washington," said Lisa Miller, Republican communications director for the House Energy and Commerce Committee. "They collected substantial information which now requires analysis. Additionally, we expect Google's formal response to written questions tomorrow. That, too, likely will require a careful reading before we can reach any conclusions."
Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch told National Journal that he still has a number of concerns about this transaction, "especially as it relates to competition and privacy."
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President Bush's Passive-Aggressive Holiday Greeting
Speaking at his final White House press conference of the year, President Bush congratulated Congress on its 11th-hour legislative achievements while making sure to backhand lawmakers for taking so long to get there.
"I thank the members of both parties for their hard work," Bush said, cheering the passage this week of the alternative minimum tax (AMT) patch, a lending crisis fix, an energy efficiency package and new defense spending. "I am pleased we are able to end this year on a high note."
Returning later to the AMT bill, the president added, "Unfortunately, Congress passed this legislation after a lengthy delay. It is going to add to the time it takes to process tens of billions in refunds. We will work hard to minimize the impact of congressional delay."
And after thanking Congress for sending him new spending for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan before the New Year, Bush noted that it was "approved at the last minute, nearly three months after the end of the fiscal year." He continued, "When Congress wastes so much time and leaves its work until the final days before Christmas, it is not a responsible way to run the government."
The president later denied that his relationship with the Democratic-led Congress was truly "antagonistic," but his annual pre-holiday address to the press corps encapsulated the testy and wearying push-pull the two branches have been engaged in all year.
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FTC Clears Google Acquisition Of DoubleClick
The Federal Trade Commission said today it will not block Google's proposed $3.1 billion acquisition of Internet advertising server DoubleClick.
In a 4-1 vote, the commission wrote that "after carefully reviewing the evidence, we have concluded that Google's proposed acquisition of DoubleClick is unlikely to substantially lessen competition."
"The FTC's strong support sends a clear message: this acquisition poses no risk to competition and will benefit consumers," Eric Schmidt, chairman and CEO of Google, said in a statement.
During its nearly eight-month review of the proposed transaction, the commission found the consumer privacy issues that had been raised are "not unique to Google and DoubleClick," and "extend to the entire online advertising marketplace." An FTC official clarified the decision: Unless the privacy interests raised in a proposed merger are connected to competition, the commission found that it lacks legal authority to block a transaction on these grounds.
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Earlybird Roundup: CIA Tapes, AMT Patch, EPA Ruling
Washington. CIA Director Michael Hayden told the Senate intelligence committee last week that three White House lawyers were briefed in 2004 about the destruction of CIA interrogation videotapes. Under a subpoena threat, the CIA agreed to give House investigators documents related to the tapes.
Congress. On the final day of the 2007 session, the House approved an AMT patch and a gun bill inspired by the Virginia Tech shootings.
Iraq. More women employed by private contractor KBR have come forward to report sexual harassment and assault while working in Iraq.
Turkey. The Turkish ambassador said the U.S. supplied intelligence to help his country attack PKK targets in northern Iraq.
Economy. The Bush administration declined to charge China with manipulating its currency yesterday, amid pressure from lawmakers to impose penalties on the country.
Nation. Citing new provisions in the recently passed energy bill, the Environmental Protection Agency denied a request from 17 states to be allowed to set their own emissions rules.
See Earlybird (subscription) for more of this morning's headlines.
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Tancredo To Drop Out Of Presidential Race
UPDATED.
Long-shot Republican presidential candidate Tom Tancredo will make a "major announcement" from Iowa today, his campaign said yesterday, inviting speculation that the Colorado congressman will drop out of the race. AP reports this morning that "a person close to Tancredo" has confirmed that he will abandon his bid for the GOP nomination.
A campaign spokesman said he could not provide details.
Tancredo is perhaps too much of a niche (and not well-enough known) candidate for this race, but he may take credit for ensuring that his battle cry, illegal immigration, is a decisive issue in the GOP nomination fight. His is perhaps the most hard-line position of the GOP contenders -- he has called for an end to legal immigration as well -- and that has forced many of the front-runners to sharpen their own more moderate positions to avoid appearing weak by comparison. In the CNN/YouTube debate last month, he accused his aping rivals of trying to "out-Tancredo Tancredo."
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December 19, 2007
Bush Greenlights Energy Bill
With congressional leaders in attendance, President Bush this morning signed the recently passed energy bill that he said would address the need to reduce U.S. dependence on oil.
"The legislation I am signing today will address our vulnerabilities and our dependence in two important ways," Bush said, first by increasing the supply of alternative fuels and then by raising Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for automobiles to 35 miles per gallon by 2020.
"The bill also includes provisions to improve energy efficiency in lighting and appliances," he added. "It adopts elements of the executive order I signed requiring federal agencies to lead by example on efficiency and renewable energy use."
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Jeff Bingaman and ranking member Pete Domenici and House Energy and Commerce Chairman John Dingell were among those at the ceremony. Democrats have vowed to try next year to pass tax provisions and renewable electricity mandates that were dropped from the final version of the bill.
-CongressDaily
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Time Gets It Right With Person Of The Year
After being mocked and ridiculed for its gimmicky 2006 pick, Time magazine reverted to heft with this year's choice: Russian President (for Life) Vladimir Putin.
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Global Health Survey Finds Regional Differences
Health care has been a prominent issue on the campaign trail in the U.S. this year, with presidential candidates, particularly on the Democratic side, vowing to expand access to health care coverage for the over 40 million Americans without insurance. According to a new study, these concerns about the quality and availability of health care are also shared worldwide, albeit in different ways.
The global survey [PDF] from the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Pew Global Attitudes Project shows that while health care ranks high among citizens' political priorities around the world, attitudes toward the issue vary widely according to where people live, their economic status and their experiences with particular diseases.
Overall, the survey of over 45,000 people in 46 countries finds that health is a "local phenomenon." Not surprisingly, respondents in areas hardest hit by disease and malnutrition, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, were more likely to rank health as the top problem for their countries. In other regions, including Latin America, Asia and Europe, crime, terrorism, drugs and pollution were perceived as greater threats than the spread of infectious diseases.
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Earlybird Roundup: Energy Bill, South Korea Election
Iraq. U.S. military officials say commanders were not aware of Turkey's plans to bomb northern Iraq earlier this week.
South Korea. Former business executive Lee Myung-bak of the conservative opposition Grand National Party was elected president of South Korea today.
Energy. President Bush will sign a bipartisan energy bill today managing tougher fuel efficiency standards in the U.S.
Middle East. The White House announced that President Bush will travel to the Middle East next month to solidify relationships with Arab states involved in the peace process and the effort to pressure Iran on its nuclear program.
Immigration. A federal judge is set to rule by the end of week on an effort to block one of the nation's toughest immigration laws in Arizona.
See Earlybird (subscription) for more of this morning's headlines.
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WH Lawyers May Have Encouraged Destruction Of CIA Tapes
One day after a federal judge ignored the Justice Department's objections and ordered a hearing into the destruction of CIA interrogation tapes, the New York Times is reporting that at least four high-ranking White House lawyers may have had a role in the decision to destroy the video evidence.
Citing "current and former administration and intelligence officials," the Times names four White House officials -- former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, Vice President Dick Cheney's Chief of Staff David Addington, former senior National Security Council lawyer John Bellinger and former White House counsel Harriet Miers -- who "took part in discussions with the Central Intelligence Agency between 2003 and 2005 about whether to destroy videotapes showing the secret interrogations of two operatives" from al-Qaida.
The Times' sources reportedly gave "conflicting accounts as to whether anyone at the White House expressed support for the idea that the tapes should be destroyed."
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Senate OKs Unfettered Iraq War Funds
The Senate approved $70 billion more for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan yesterday, paving the way for President Bush's signature on a roughly $560 billion omnibus spending package.
The omnibus measure was headed for final passage in the Senate and will make a final stop in the House today before going to Bush's desk. The president's aides say Bush will sign the bill, as the addition of Iraq war funds without conditions was the final hurdle.
The war-funding amendment by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., passed 70-25. It adds roughly $39 billion to the House-approved package, which contained $31 billion only for Afghanistan operations, with some funding for protective equipment.
Based on a spending rate of about $6.6 billion per month, the cash infusion would appear to give the Army breathing room until around June before another supplemental is needed.
See CongressDaily (subscription) for the full story.
Posted at 7:42 AM
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December 18, 2007
DOD Nominee Gives Maliki Government An 'F'
The Bush administration's nominee to be assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs today gave the Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki an "F" for failing to meet key legislative benchmarks.
"At this time, I would give the Maliki government an 'F'," Mary Beth Long told the Senate Armed Services Committee during her confirmation hearing today. The nascent government has not performed in an "exemplary manner" to pass needed legislation, Long said. If confirmed, Long, who has served as the principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for international security for the last two years, would become a top Pentagon adviser on the Middle East, Africa and NATO. She acknowledged the Iraqi government has not yet succeeded in passing de-Baathification legislation or approving hydrocarbon laws including an oil revenue sharing agreement, among other legislative goals.
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Standoff Over AMT Ends; Omnibus Sent To Senate
A temporary standoff on the omnibus spending bill was resolved today after the Senate agreed to vote on an alternative minimum tax patch with offsets, lawmakers and aides said.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, addressing concerns of the moderate-to-conservative Blue Dog Coalition of House Democrats, had threatened not to send the spending bill to the Senate until Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid agreed to bring up a fully offset AMT bill. Reid agreed to the change this afternoon, and Pelosi sent over the omnibus bill. "We're going to try to do a vote" on a fully offset AMT bill, Reid said, acknowledging that getting the new version through the Senate would be "a little harder."
President Bush is prepared to sign the omnibus package approved yesterday by the House, so long as Congress approves money he is seeking for the Iraq war. The administration today embraced an amendment by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, saying in a new Statement of Administration Policy [PDF] that unless the McConnell provision is adopted, Bush will veto the bill.
White House press secretary Dana Perino cautioned that aides continue to comb through the legislation. But barring any particularly unwelcome discoveries, Bush will accept the measure, she said.
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Fed Proposes New Rules For Lenders To Ease Mortgage Crisis
After months of urging from lawmakers, market-watchers and consumer advocates concerned about the impact of risky subprime loans on the slumping housing market, the Federal Reserve unanimously agreed to propose tighter restrictions on lenders this morning.
The proposal includes "a ban on low-documentation loans and limits on penalties for borrowers who prepay their debts," Bloomberg News reports. According to MarketWatch, the proposed rules would not apply to current borrowers but would instead aim to avoid future lending crises "like the one that has crippled the subprime mortgage industry."
"Our goal is to promote responsible mortgage lending, for the benefit of individual consumers and the economy," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a statement. "We want consumers to make decisions about home mortgage options confidently, with assurance that unscrupulous home mortgage practices will not be tolerated."
CNNMoney.com and the Wall Street Journal (subscription) have more on the proposal, and the Fed's Web site has highlights. In related news today, the Economist named the subprime mortgage crisis the "biggest mess" in the business world this year.
Posted at 1:52 PM
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Study: Trouble Ahead For Aging Public Employees
According to a new study billed as the first of its kind, states are about $731 billion short of what they need to cover pensions, health care and other long-term obligations for retiring public workers.
The Pew Charitable Trusts report [PDF] covers all 50 states, and examines what states already have in the bank vs. what they will eventually need. Pew estimates that, all told, states will be on the hook for $2.73 trillion over the next three decades. Researchers describe that figure as conservative.
Some states are squirreling away more efficiently than others. Only Arizona, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Utah and Wisconsin were ready to fully fund nonpensions benefits for the next 30 years by FY 2006, the report found. None of the five largest states had saved money for nonpensions benefits.
Several states are taking measures to correct the problem, including raising the retirement age and setting up trusts to pay for r
The 110th Congress, led by Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, swooped into power in January with ambitious plans for change. But to paraphrase an old saying, the best-laid plans of the legislative branch often go awry... especially when there's a vocal and sizable minority standing in the way at nearly every turn.