December 05, 2007
WH '08: Why The Immigration Debate Matters
When asked what issues matter most to them, Americans usually name the Iraq war, the economy and health care by a mile [PDF]. Yet immigration has been dominating the debates in both parties. What gives?
See GOP candidate Tom Tancredo's new campaign ad above. It is the most gruesomely graphic scare spot we've seen yet this cycle, and as much as you might want to turn away -- don't. This ad may well indicate that illegal immigration will be 2008's flag-burning/gay marriage, which in previous cycles had a very real effect on election outcomes despite Americans' protest that those concerns weren't part of their Election Day calculus.
Tancredo's premise, tying illegal immigration to violent crime, isn't backed up by the numbers, but it does and will drive votes. The problem here is there's no good counter for arguments like his. Rape and murder are already unacceptable, but rape and murder of Americans by foreigners who are living here illegally appear to be unacceptable to the point of outrage. Those stories don't play on just FOX News anymore; they can also be seen on CNN and MSNBC these days. And they may explain why immigration is increasingly important in non-border state Iowa.
One-issue candidates like Tancredo usually engender a lot of eye-rolling because of the single-minded obsessiveness of their platforms, but this no-shot candidate is clearly shaping the 2008 election in a way that, say, Dennis Kucinich on the Democratic side is not. Unfortunately for the candidates who'd rather talk about something else, and unfortunately for Americans who want to hear about something else, illegal immigration stands to be the single most divisive issue of next year's election.
All the major candidates are for tougher border enforcement. The knife-fights break out when they start talking about what to do beyond that. Arizona Sen. John McCain is being punished by GOP voters because he spearheaded a moderate solution on illegal immigration -- enforcement plus path to citizenship. Most Americans approve of that compromise, which is rooted in the fact that rounding up and deporting the 12 million or so illegals in this country is simply not feasible. (NPR reports that there are just 6,000 officers in the "chronically underfunded and understaffed" Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.)
Tancredo and his ilk believe that this nation is approaching a seismic cultural shift. Data showing that Hispanics, the fastest-growing ethnic group in this nation, will outnumber white Americans in less than a generation scares these conservatives. Is that racism? McCain thinks so. But Tancredo and others would counter that because this trend is being driven by illegal immigration -- which is also a national security issue -- it isn't natural, it's actually potentially harmful, and it should be stopped.
In yesterday's NPR debate, Democrat Barack Obama accused President Bush of failing to show leadership on this issue. That isn't quite true: Bush stuck his neck out on illegal immigration and was shouted down by the Tancredos in his own party. If Bush couldn't get immigration reform past that bloc, it seems even more dubious that a Democratic president would fare any better.
DNC, take note: The ground no doubt favors your party, but illegal immigration could be the issue that does your candidate in next year. Just ask McCain.
See today's Ad Spotlight (subscription) for more background on Tancredo's ad.
[UPDATE 1:50] Forgot to tease our liveblog coverage of this Sunday's Spanish-language Univision debate in Miami. Tancredo won't be there, not surprisingly, but all the top tier will be. Will the candidates be asked about Tancredo's ad? Show starts at 7.
Posted at 1:05 PM
Posted to:
Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Immigration, John McCain, President Bush, Republicans, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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