January 28, 2008

Congress: WH Race Threatens To Hamstring Dem Majority

With Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois likely fighting for the Democratic presidential nomination well into February, and one of them virtually assured of being the nominee, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid might be doomed to spend 2008 much the same way he spent 2007 -- hamstrung by a slim majority.

With lawmakers eager to sidestep controversial votes and spend as much time as possible campaigning for their own re-elections, the track record for legislative accomplishments is already unremarkable.

This year, with Democrats holding a razor-thin majority and three senators still in the thick of the presidential race -- Clinton, Obama and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. -- some aides foresee an even lighter-than-usual workload.

While Democratic Sens. Joseph Biden of Delaware and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut dropped out of the race this month after poor showings in Iowa, Obama and Clinton are in it for the long haul and might be invisible for much of the spring. Whichever of them wins the nomination -- and barring a comeback of epic proportions by former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, one of them will -- is likely to be missing in action throughout the fall.

The numbers are telling. Democrats hold a 51-49 edge, counting one independent who caucuses with them, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and it takes 60 votes to pass most major bills in Senate. But with Clinton, Obama and McCain on the presidential trail pretty much full time for at least the next month, the edge drops to 49-48, 11 short of 60.

The climb would get even steeper on a war-related issue, since Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., votes with Republicans on most national security issues.

The situation will improve slightly if one of the Democrats wraps up the nomination, but only if the loser doesn't sign on as the ticket's running mate. In that case, with or without McCain on the GOP ticket, Reid and other Democratic leaders could be in for a long, frustrating year.

Democrats had that situation in 2004, when Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts and Edwards teamed up to run against President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney.

Of the 216 roll call votes held in the Senate in 2004, Kerry voted only 22 times. All of those votes were recorded before June 22. Edwards voted more often earlier in the year -- Kerry won the nomination handily and quickly -- but did not cast a single vote after June 24.

But in another sense, the numbers game might bite Republicans as well: Of the 34 Senate seats up for election in November, 22 are held by Republicans.

Since Democrats control the calendar, one Republican aide said Reid and his colleagues might be in position to schedule important votes requiring those lawmakers to return to the Capitol from the campaign trail.

A Democratic aide scoffed at the notion that the majority would play such games but acknowledged it was possible. "Crazier things have happened," the aide said.

The GOP aide agreed that mutual respect between the party leaders would probably curb such maneuvering -- at least for a while. "There may be a closed-door truce. Though at some point, that will probably break down," the aide said with a snicker.

See today's outlook story from CongressDaily for more on Congress' agenda in the coming weeks and the likely impact of Bush's State of the Union address tonight.

-Ben Schneider, CongressDaily

Photos of Obama and Clinton by Daniella Zalcman.

Posted at 10:30 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, Congress, Democrats, Senate, WH 2008
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