January 06, 2008
Liveblogging the FOX Republican Roundtable -- Minus Ron Paul
9:37. It's over. If anyone's feelings were hurt tonight, like Hillary Rodham Clinton's were yesterday, it's Mitt Romney. He seemed to be running an impeccable campaign, and that's part of the problem. Schadenfreude is a female dog, as he is learning all too well.
As we said before, the GOP primary is shaping to be a real knife-fight between Romney and McCain. Will Huckabee deliver another surprise? The ground seems to be shifting yet again in the Republican nomination battle, but with the primaries so front-loaded voters have little time to carefully weigh their options. If there is buyer's remorse come spring, we'll hear a lot of calls for shaking up the primary calendar for 2012.
Check back tomorrow for a roundup of reaction to tonight's forum and the ones ABC held last night. Good night.
9:30. Why are you best qualified to go to the general?
Giuliani: I'm not perfect, but I can solve problems.
Thompson: I've never lost an election. OK, so I haven't run in many elections...
Huckabee: I can relate to ordinary, hardworking Americans.
Romney: "Chris, I got in this race because my family told me I ought to." [ed: Really??]
McCain: I can re-energize the Republican base. And I love New Hampshire!
9:27. We should mention that while Romney has gone the most blatantly negative on air, he's been fending off attacks as well. When the topic turned to attack ads, FOX aired a Romney spot hitting Huckabee. Is FOX participating in the Mitt pile-on as well?
9:23. Huckabee's at bat next, but first there's some congenial joking about Chuck Norris, a Huck backer, and John Wayne (courtesy of Thompson). If youth is a deciding factor, this is not the field for you.
9:21. On to negative ads, aka Let's Get Mitt Time.
"My message has been very positive," Romney protests. "Of course I've focused on places where there are differences, but issues are important." In other words: Nothing personal, guys!
9:16. It's so cliche to say of McCain that he's hitting his stride, but he really truly is. He seemed more at ease and comfortable and naturally funny than anyone else in the ABC forum, and that appears to be the case tonight. FOX's talking heads were questioning the wisdom of him predicting he'd take New Hampshire on Tuesday. His confidence is really showing, and more importantly, he's reminding moderates and independents why they flocked to him in 2000.
9:14. A friend who is watching with me just pointed out that Huckabee is not wearing a red or blue tie -- his is green. Wonder if this makes the cycle tomorrow?
9:09. By the way, unless it happened when I blinked, FOX hasn't plastered the screen with anyone else's past statements. Romney must be special.
9:06. A really testy exchange between Huckabee and Romney in which the former points out to an interrupting Romney that Wallace, not he, is the moderator. George Stephanopoulos noted this morning that the GOP candidates' apparent personal distaste for Romney seemed to be on full display last night. This is really turning into a schoolyard pile-on.
9:01. We're on to immigration now, and it's largely a repeat of yesterday's debate with one significant exception. McCain, countering an assault from Romney, reminds everyone that Romney had previously said of comprehensive immigration reform that "it was reasonable and, quote, not amnesty."
A split second later, literally, FOX switches over from the debate to a screen showing that Romney quote in big, bold letters. What? How? What?
8:58. Huckabee just said that he's been to Guantanamo, and that "the conditions there were amazingly hospitable" -- even too hospitable. Wow. Expect to see/hear more about that in tomorrow's news cycle.
McCain reminds everyone that he was a POW in Vietnam, and that he was tortured.
8:54. There's Huckabee's Foreign Affairs column again, courtesy of Thompson.
8:47. Everyone except McCain lacks military or substantive foreign policy experience and is on defense here. Huckabee echoes Romney's sentiment re: leadership experience, and ticks off the many countries (Syria, Egypt) that he's visited. It's more than Bush visited before he won election in 2000.
8:40. Does foreign policy experience matter?
Romney says: not so much. "The people of America have made the choice to select a leader who is a person with executive leadership experience... who brings the qualities of leadership that are so essential in such a troubled time." Think about it: He's right. A friend pointed out to me the other day that the presidency hasn't historically been a resume job. Foreign policy-wise, the Democratic race hasn't been a resume contest; otherwise, Joseph Biden would still be in it. For the Republicans, do the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and now maybe Pakistan change that trend? We'll soon see.
8:36. McCain is asked to respond to Romney's charge that the longtime senator is too Establishment Washington to effect real change.
"I have been an agent of change in Washington. I know how the system works. I know how to bring about change," McCain responds. We have seen the GOP field bandy about the C-word, which is dominating the Democratic race, so this is an interesting twist to the Republican debate. Most especially because the C-word has mainly been code for "nothing that in any way resembles President Bush."
Is Romney also trying to remind voters of McCain's age, here? Hmm. Anyway, the former Massachusetts governor evokes his "turnaround" of corporations as a management consultant and of the Salt Lake City Olympics, and replies, "Washington needs fundamental, top-to-bottom change."
Interesting, for the most vocal and enthusiastic Bush supporter in this field. Plus, more interesting: Romney says the fact that he and Huckabee, both former governors, are leading a field of current and past congressmen is evidence of voters' hunger for change. A rare positive mention of Huckabee from him.
McCain counters with this expeditious dig: He also has leadership experience, but "for patriotism, and not for profit."
8:24. Some prognosticators are already writing the obit for Giuliani's campaign, but the economy is a good topic for him because he gets to remind everyone of his successful New York City turnaround as mayor. He's doing so now.
8:22. Huckabee is for swapping all income and corporate taxes for a consumer tax, which is viewed as a problematic plan to implement from both the right and left. Here's our post on why.
8:16. Thompson points out that his is the only Republican campaign to have released a comprehensive Social Security plan. He backs individual retirement accounts that the federal government would contribute to, and proposes indexing benefits to future inflation and not wages. Some economists think that actually amounts to a cut.
8:10. Wallace to Huckabee: What's with those tax hikes you OK'd as Arkansas governor? Huckabee reminds Wallace that he cut plenty of taxes too, and turned a state deficit into a surplus. "It's not about the politics of saying I never raised a tax. It's about I made government work," Huckabee says.
Then some back-and-forth between Huckabee and Romney on their respective records. "Mike, you make up facts faster than you talk," Romney says.
8:04. First question from moderator Chris Wallace is on taxes.
Not even a minute in and we get our first Ronald Reagan name-drop, courtesy of Romney. We also get our first attack, also courtesy Romney, subject: McCain. Romney proposes a tax savings plan that would make the first $200,000 of earnings tax-free.
McCain sees Romney's anti-tax Reagan, and raises him anti-spending Reagan. New Hampshirites are about as anti-deficit as they are anti-tax. A good issue for McCain to kick off with, even accounting for his past opposition to President Bush's tax cuts.
7:56. Take the next four minutes to read Mike Memoli's post on all those up-for-grabs Granite State voters. Also, I should have mentioned that Duncan Hunter, tied at 1 percent with Fred Thompson in the CNN/WMUR poll, didn't make the grade either. He won't be at St. Anselm tonight.
7:30. Hi everyone, and welcome to The Gate's liveblog coverage of FOX News' Republican presidential candidates roundtable. Participating in tonight's forum at St. Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., in order of the results of the latest CNN/WMUR poll [PDF] are: John McCain (33 percent), Mitt Romney (27 percent), Mike Huckabee (14 percent), Rudy Giuliani (11 percent) and Fred Thompson (1 percent).
The poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points, so McCain and Romney are effectively in a dead heat for first, but that's still pretty bad news for Romney, who once again stands to be defeated by a less well-financed rival who just last fall was seen as having almost no shot at winning the nomination. Factoring in Huckabee's surprisingly decisive win in Thursday's Iowa caucuses, a McCain victory in Tuesday's New Hampshire primaries means we are looking at a very different nomination contest than we saw two months ago.
It's far too early to say that Romney's strategy of betting large and early has backfired. We've seen some nyah-nyah-nyahing from his outspent rivals, but critics ought to keep in mind that this strategy was borne of necessity. The GOP base craves purity, and it's a perhaps unfortunate truth that changing one's mind about an issue is a luxury presidential candidates simply aren't afforded. Romney faced some big hurdles in persuading evangelicals and social conservatives that his platform conversions were genuine, and he almost appeared to have done so before the Huckabee media surge set in.
McCain's prospects have improved for different reasons. The military component of the Iraq surge strategy appears to be working, so independents and moderate Republicans who turned on him last earlier this year [forgot it was 2008] appear to be giving the Arizona senator another look. Immigration, which was almost (and still may be) the final nail in McCain's candidacy, is topping Granite State Republicans' concerns, but as Giuliani pointed out in yesterday's ABC News/Facebook event, none of the GOP front-runners pass the base's purity test on this issue.
Romney's flush campaign coffers allowed him to blanket the Iowa and New Hampshire airwaves with ads attacking those who posed the greatest threats to him. Iowans may have punished him for that on Thursday, and no one will be greatly surprised if Granite Staters do the same. McCain and Huckabee both needled Romney on spending so much to go negative yesterday, with a certain amount of relish. Don't be surprised, though, if FOX's moderators ask Huckabee much more pointed questions important to the GOP base.
The Democrats also participated in yesterday's forum, but they won't get a turn tonight. Blame them; they are boycotting FOX-sponsored debates. As for Ron Paul's absence, blame FOX for that: He didn't make their grade as a viable candidate -- even though he finished comfortably ahead of Thompson at 9 percent in the CNN/WMUR survey.
Showtime's at 8 p.m. EST. Keep refreshing for updates.
Posted at 9:37 PM
Posted to:
Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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