January 29, 2008
McCain Edges Romney In Florida; Giuliani Bowing Out
UPDATED.
John McCain edged out rival Mitt Romney to win the Republican primary in Florida, sealing his comeback status as the front-runner in this race.
"Our victory might not have reached landslide proportions, but it is sweet nonetheless," McCain said, as supporters cheered an increasingly familiar refrain, "Mac is back! Mac is back!"
"To everyone who in good times and bad devoted much time and energy and hope to keeping our candidacy competitive: Thank you from the bottom of my heart," McCain said, in reference to his astonishing revival after being left for dead last summer when his campaign operation imploded.
These numbers will be confirmed tomorrow, but McCain bested Romney by about 36 percent to 31 percent. Rudy Giuliani won 15 percent of the registered-Republicans-only vote, followed by Mike Huckabee 2 points behind. The exit polling data show some surprising alliances. Latinos overwhelmingly went to McCain, even though Romney was up with Spanish-language ads in Florida nearly a year ago. McCain also bested Romney among voters middle-aged and older. The two fared about equally among middle-income voters, with Romney gaining an edge in the $100,000-$199,990 bracket. But McCain won over Republicans earning $200,000 or more, 44 percent to 30 percent.
With Super Tuesday just a week away, McCain heads into that 24-state competition the delegate-count winner, with Romney his chief rival and Huckabee the wild card.
Meanwhile, without actually saying he was dropping out, Giuliani all but drew his campaign to a close in his concession speech tonight. He said he was "proud" of his campaign for keeping things positive -- he never really went after anyone except Romney and Ron Paul -- and nodded to his improbable candidacy and improbable strategy.
"We are the party of freedom. We are the party of the people. And we're a big party, and we're getting bigger. I'm even in this party! This is a big party!" Giuliani said, addressing his supporters.
Giuliani is expected to drop out and endorse McCain as early as tomorrow, Mark Halperin is reporting. The two are good friends, and have complimented the other frequently throughout the GOP primary race.
During his victory speech, McCain thanked his "dear friend... who invested his heart and soul in this primary and who conducted himself with all the qualities of the exceptional American leader he truly is. Thank you, Rudy, for all you have added to this race and being an inspiration to me and to millions of Americans."
Giuliani's expected endorsement will cement McCain's status as the homeland security/foreign policy candidate. Giuliani remained a reliable draw on the trail, even as his prospects sank. Expect well-attended rallies featuring him in McCain's future.
McCain, never shy when it comes to expletives, delivered a symbolic one to Romney tonight. On top of thanking Giuliani, he singled out Huckabee for "always" bringing "to this campaign conviction and passion, and something we don't always have enough of in these contests: good humor and grace."
McCain and Huckabee have been chummy throughout this contest, and both have been on the receiving end of Romney's attacks. McCain has also jabbed at Romney and can hardly protest that he's always run a positive campaign. But the self-funded Romney has been the most overtly negative in this field by far and is disliked by all of the front-runners as a result.
Confronted late in the game by McCain's sudden ascendancy, Romney has had to recalibrate his message, putting greater emphasis on his role as the "change" candidate of his field, a Washington outsider who has worked in "the real economy."
In his concession speech tonight, Romney lambasted Washington for failing to maintain high ethical standards, deliver Social Security reform, control pork-barrel spending and balance the federal budget. "We're not going to change Washington by sending the same people back just to sit in different chairs," he said, in a clear jab at McCain. "I think it's time for the politicians to leave Washington and for the citizens to take over."
Romney's problem here is that McCain isn't just any Washington politician. He earned the reputation of a maverick because of the relish with which he challenges the establishment and his own party. And the populist edge to this new talking point for Romney could be somewhat problematic because of his privileged background and the fact that his "real economy" experience was as a management consultant and venture capitalist. Huckabee's presence in this contest further complicates Romney's argument.
According to the exit polls, McCain soundly beat Romney among Republicans who said the economy was the most important problem facing the nation.
While Giuliani's flameout might come as a surprise to some, it shouldn't. Plenty of New Yorkers, who were skeptical about his candidacy from the beginning, will be mouthing these words: told you so. You'll hear lots of talk about Giuliani's decision to ignore Iowa, halfheartedly campaign in New Hampshire and put all his chips on Northeastern retirees residing in Florida. It was an untested strategy, to be sure. But Giuliani was a highly unusual candidate for the Republican nomination to begin with.
He entered the race with a pile of negatives -- mayor of liberal New York City, three marriages, adulterous affair, pro-choice, gay-friendly, pro-gun control -- and one big positive: He was mayor of NYC on 9/11. His name was associated with strength and resolve in the face of the worst terrorist attacks on U.S. soil, but as the polling trends bear out, his numbers tanked as Americans became more engaged with the 2008 election. It might be simplistic to say that the more GOP voters got to know him, the more likely they were to look elsewhere. But it's probably not wrong.
Giuliani did win support among defense hawks who did not share the rigidity of social conservatives like President Bush. He strongly hinted that despite all the doubts about his conservatism, his brand of politics has a place in the GOP, and that the American public hasn't seen the last of him.
"We must be a 50-state party. We must compete in all 50 states," Giuliani told supporters tonight. Intentional or not, he just evoked Howard Dean circa 2004. It's doubtful that Republicans are ready to make Giuliani chairman of the Republican National Committee, but don't be surprised if he becomes a significant party player moving forward.
Huckabee, who's spent a fraction of the time and money Giuliani has in Florida, pronounced his finish tonight a victory. The former Arkansas governor nearly corners the market on working-class Republicans concerned about health care and wages and evangelicals who look at Romney and McCain and say, "No thanks."
Addressing supporters in Missouri this evening, Huckabee said, "Let me just remind you that going into tonight, we were second in the delegate count. And more importantly, we are playing all nine innings in this ballgame. Even the Cardinals occasionally have a rough inning, but they know how to win championships." The Cardinals are the baseball team in St. Louis, and they won the World Series in 2006. (Had to look that up.)
Huckabee, McCain and Romney are flying to California for the Los Angeles Times/Politico/Reagan Library GOP candidates debate tomorrow night. Giuliani is also expected to fly out as planned and announce his endorsement of McCain there.
McCain's win earns him front-runner status on the strength of his early-state wins and the threat he would pose to the Democratic nominee in the general. Some GOP voters will never forgive him for McCain-Feingold, comprehensive immigration reform, initially voting against President Bush's tax cuts, or any one of the multitude of sins he's committed against the Republican establishment. The question for them is: Do you want to hand Democrats the White House or fight for it?
While McCain's fundraising apparatus picked up after his New Hampshire win, some donors were waiting to see how he'd fare tonight before writing him a check. He will need their money ASAP, as Romney still remains formidable on the cash-on-hand front.
Oh yeah, the Democrats had a primary in Florida, too. It doesn't count toward the delegates race, though, thanks to Florida's early-vote maneuvering. The candidates agreed per Democratic National Committee rules not to campaign here. Hillary Rodham Clinton has trounced the competition, 49 percent to Barack Obama's 30 percent and John Edwards' 15 percent. No surprise that Clinton was on hand to give a victory speech following her humiliation in South Carolina three days ago. It's not an insignificant win, but because it doesn't actually count, Obama still has the mojo going into next Tuesday.
Well, it might count. While the RNC punished Florida Republicans by denying them 57 of the 114 delegates in this winner-take-all state, the DNC denied all the Democratic delegates. Clinton -- surprise, surprise -- is appealing to the DNC to seat at least some of the Democratic delegates, and it is possible the DNC will change its mind.
Posted at 11:17 PM
Posted to:
Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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