January 09, 2008
Clinton Takes New Hampshire In Stunner; McCain (& Huckabee) Also Triumph
UPDATED WITH FINAL RESULTS.
Hillary Rodham Clinton has pulled out an upset in New Hampshire, where a surprisingly tight battle with Barack Obama upended early predictions that a misguided strategy might doom her bid for the Democratic nomination. The upside for those embarrassed by their premature crystal ball-gazing is that voters across the country have a real menu of options in both parties.
"I come tonight with a very, very full heart," Clinton said to tremendous cheering and applause from supporters. "I want to especially thank New Hampshire. Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice."
The crowd roared in response. More than anyone else on the 2008 slate of presidential candidates, the question of "how human" she seems dogs the former first lady. When Clinton appeared to be the inevitable nominee just months ago, it was because she had defied expectations in her strong debate performances and favorable responses from voters on the trail. In what was probably a moment of simple, human fatigue (although longtime Clinton-haters will say otherwise), she appeared to choke up during an exchange in a diner yesterday. A media frenzy ensued, and pundits were wondering out loud whether Clinton was too soft to endure the knocks of a presidential campaign.
By a hair (39 percent to 36 percent), Granite State voters voiced their preference for Clinton today, putting on pause the post-Iowa surge Obama appeared to be riding. If you aren't already convinced, Clinton's squeaker may be yet more proof that cable news is often best watched on mute.
So Camp Clinton was sweating bullets as the precinct results crawled in. Clinton's win means she's in a real battle for the nomination, something the campaign hasn't (but probably should have) seemed prepared for. No one will be surprised if we still see staff/adviser shake-ups in the coming days or weeks.
"Together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me," Clinton said, rallying the crowd. "For all the ups and downs of this campaign, you helped remind everyone that politics isn’t a game. This campaign is about people. It’s about making a difference in your lives. It's about making sure that everyone in this country has the opportunity to live up to his or her God-given potential. That has been the work of my life."
Without missing a beat, Clinton kept speaking, but the crowd quickly interrupted her with whoops and cheers. Camp Clinton has, to its frustration, tried frantically to remind Democratic voters of the New York senator's pre-White House advocacy work, only to find the topic return again and again to her failure on health care reform, her vote authorizing force in Iraq, her "likeability" or her divisiveness.
Undoubtedly invigorated by tonight's win, Clinton seemed to address naysayers when she declared, "We’re going to carry on and make our case. We are in it for the long run, and that is because we are in it for the American people."
Moments earlier, Obama conceded his loss to Clinton. There's disappointment in his campaign, to be sure, but Obama is doing far better in this race than most political prognosticators ever imagined he might.
"Nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change," Obama told a boisterous crowd of supporters. "We have been told we cannot do this by a chorus of cynics. They will only grow louder and more dissonant in the weeks and months to come," the upstart from Illinois shouted. The crowd shouted back, "Yes we can! Yes we can!"
"We've been warned against offering the people of this nation false hope," Obama said, slapping at a favorite Clinton criticism. "But in the unlikely story of America, there has never been anything false about hope."
The overall picture was much gloomier for North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who earlier conceded defeat after it became clear that he would place well behind the two front-runners.
"I am in this race until we have actually restored the American dream and strengthened and restored the middle class of America," Edwards told cheering supporters in a Manchester mill. Edwards urged "the 99 percent of voices that have not been heard in this democracy to join us in this grassroots campaign to create the America that all of us can believe in."
Edwards' disappointing 17-percent finish in New Hampshire comes days after a disappointing second-place finish in Iowa. Both contests were seen as critical to building momentum for Edwards' outspent and outblitzed campaign. The next major primary, in South Carolina, will be on Edwards' home turf. Polling indicates he'll likely have to settle for third there, too, and it's difficult to see how he can go on much longer beyond a defeat in the first-in-the-South primary.
Meanwhile, for the Republicans, the New Hampshire primary picture was clear much earlier in the evening, when John McCain declared a repeat of his Granite State win of 2000.
To shouts of "Mac is back!" from supporters at his campaign HQ in Arizona, the Republican senator known as "The Maverick" basked in a victory that just months ago seemed out of reach.
"I’m past the age when I can claim the noun 'kid,' no matter what adjective precedes it," the 71-year-old former Vietnam POW told the cheering throng. "But tonight we sure showed them what a comeback looks like. When the pundits declared us finished, I told them I'm going to New Hampshire where the voters don't let you make their decision for them."
McCain thumped the one-time front-runner in New Hampshire, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, 37 percent to 32 percent. But it's too soon to declare McCain this cycle's Lazarus. Compared with the national electorate, Granite State voters are an idiosyncratic and unrepresentative bunch. But the New Hampshire results do indicate that moderates and independents have gravitated back to McCain -- an asset, to be sure, as he argues for his ultimate electability against a Democrat.
Mike Huckabee again surpassed expectations by placing third at 11 percent, besting former Mayor Rudy Giuliani from nearby New York City. The former Arkansas governor and his supporters seemed thrilled during his concession speech.
Over at Camp Romney, the mood was more somber. "Well, uh, another silver," Romney said, in a reference to his stewardship of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics. "Tonight, congratulations go to Sen. John McCain for running a first-class race.... He did a good job and outcompeted [sic] us."
The problem there, of course, is that isn't exactly true. McCain's raised a fraction of what Romney has and suffered a major campaign shake-up that threatened to doom his prospects entirely. At the same time, no one should be writing the Romney campaign's obit. He lost the bets he made in Iowa and New Hampshire, but you don't spend as much money as he has and build up the formidable ground organization he has to quit after the first, second or even third primary.
We'll go up with a wrap-up and reaction this afternoon.
Posted at 10:35 AM
Posted to:
Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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