January 19, 2008
Super Saturday I: McCain Wins S.C. Primary In Nail-Biter
UPDATED.
Now you may call it a comeback: John McCain has taken the South Carolina Republican primary.
McCain pulled out a narrow victory over Mike Huckabee, 33 percent to 30 percent. Fred Thompson (16 percent) and Mitt Romney (15 percent) basically tied for third.
"You know, it took us a while, but what's eight years among friends?" McCain quipped in his trademark self-deprecating manner, referencing his South Carolina loss to President Bush in 2000. "As I have said before, I know that before I can win your vote, I must earn your respect. And the only way I know how to do that is by being honest with you. I have tried to do that throughout this campaign, and to put my trust in your willingness to give me your fair consideration. So far, it seems to be working out just fine," he continued, in a room filled with ecstatic volunteers and supporters who minutes before had been chanting "Mac is back! Mac is back!"
McCain also made sure to note -- or gloat, perhaps -- that the chattering classes had declared his campaign DOA just months ago. "I am aware that for the last 28 years, the winner of the South Carolina primary has been the nominee of our party. We have a ways to go, of course," he said. "There are some tough contests ahead, starting tomorrow in the state of Florida. But, my friends, we are well on our way tonight. And I feel very good about our chances."
The outcome in South Carolina tonight is meaningful for at least two big reasons. One is that neither Huckabee nor McCain directly engaged in a negative way in a state infamous for its down-and-dirty politics.
"I want to thank [McCain] for running a civil and a good and a decent campaign," Huckabee said earlier in the evening, addressing supporters at around 9:30 p.m. "We ran a campaign with a level of civility and without attacking each other."
Huckabee conceded that he "wanted the outcome to be just a little bit different." But, he added, "I would rather be where I am with honor, rather than win with the dishonor of attacking somebody else."
The close finishes of McCain and Huckabee in this key Republican voting state may reinforce the impression that the overall contest will soon come down to these two very different candidates, and how they won support in South Carolina may be a preview of contests to come. Huckabee devoted his ground game to the socially conservative, Southern Baptist-heavy north, while McCain stumped in the more independent and moderate coastal and southern areas, not to mention South Carolina's populous military communities.
"This is not an event. This is a process," Huckabee said of the nominating contest. "The process is far, far from over," he said.
McCain's victory here may have been narrow, but it is a remarkable comeback triumph for the Arizona senator. His loss here in 2000, attributed to nasty and untruthful rumor-mongering about his wife and adopted daughter, felled his nomination bid on the heels of an unexpected victory in New Hampshire. This year, McCain repeated his Granite State win and overcame his South Carolina demons as well.
As for Thompson, his disappointing finish is a gut-blow to his campaign, which still seemed to hang on to the hope that its down-the-line-conservative candidate would surprise naysayers in the first-in-the-South primary. Thompson himself elevated hopes by warning skeptics to withhold judgment until after the South Carolina vote.
"We told our folks to vote late, so they'll still be trickling in, I'm sure," he joked, taking the stage before supporters to concede at around 7:50 p.m. Thompson did not drop out, as some had speculated he would if he finished poorly in this state; the quickly shifting GOP primary field may be giving his camp reason to hang in until the Feb. 5 contests.
One of the big surprises of the evening so far is Ron Paul's second-place finish behind Romney in the Nevada caucuses. Practically no one in the Republican establishment takes the Texas congressman's bid seriously, but so far he has more votes than Thompson or Rudy Giuliani.
Earlier this evening, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Romney emerged as the winners in Nevada, but the significance of their wins was in some dispute.
Clinton bested Barack Obama, 51 percent to 45 percent. More significantly, Clinton took seven of the nine contested caucusing sites on the Las Vegas Strip, according to on-location Las Vegas Sun reporters. A U.S. District judge on Thursday squashed a bid -- tacitly but not directly backed by the Clinton camp -- to nix the use of casinos as caucusing locations. Clinton supporters feared that caucusing on the Strip would favor Obama, who had won the heavily coveted endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union.
Clinton's victory there probably means that a significant number of CWU members broke with the union to cast their support for the former first lady. That isn't terribly unusual; union members are not obligated to vote along with their organizations. But the quirky, open caucus process meant members had to do so publicly in front of their peers, which Camp Clinton will probably seize on as a sign of grassroots enthusiasm for her campaign.
There's a little confusion about who won more delegates, though. An AP analysis shows that Clinton won 13 delegates to Obama's 12. Obama's camp is claiming he won 13 and she won 12. Meanwhile, the Nevada Democratic Party is telling both sides to cool it, because no delegates to the national convention were awarded today. Obama's camp is claiming victory while also accusing Clinton of winning dirty. Looks like that truce has been broken, John Dickerson reports.
John Edwards, who would appear to have a natural constituency in such a labor-dominant state, came away with 4 percent of the vote and no delegates.
The petering out of the Edwards campaign is another significant story of the day. Those tempted to write his WH '08 obit ought to keep two things in mind: 1) We need to see how he fares in his birth state, South Carolina, next week, and 2) He has stated firmly that he's staying in until the convention, and there is little reason not to take him at his word. This campaign appears to be his last big stand in national politics, and the campaign is deeply personal to him and his wife, Elizabeth.
Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Romney's Nevada win was pretty decisive, 51 percent to Paul's 14 percent and McCain's 13 percent. Nevada is not as important to the GOP slate as it is to the Democrats, so rival campaigns are already dismissing the former Massachusetts governor's victory -- especially since the razor-close finish in South Carolina will dominate the campaign news cycle. In fairness to Romney: A win is a win, even if not all wins are created equal. He's still in this competition, as much as some are champing at the bit for a McCain-Huckabee showdown. We'll see if Romney is able to make something of the Nevada results, though.
Meanwhile, another candidate bites the dust: Duncan Hunter is out, CNN reports. His ideological doppelganger in this race, Tom Tancredo, threw his support behind Romney after dropping out in December. It'll be interesting to see who Hunter -- and his anti-illegal immigration supporters -- line up behind after today.
Posted at 10:05 PM
Posted to:
Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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