January 25, 2008
WH '08: Everyone's Being So Nice! (For Now.)
Hey, you guys! It's so super to see you! No matter what happens in Florida on Tuesday, let's promise to always be friends. I am so serious!!!
Ahem.
The Republican candidates debate last night was mind-bogglingly polite -- proof that in politics, anything really is possible. Gone were the condescending swipes at Mitt Romney that dominated the previous GOP debate earlier this month. Romney, in kind, held his fire, and so for once we had a forum that was dominated by issues.
We heard some interesting ideas from the candidates on how to jump-start the economy. Mike Huckabee, for instance, made a pretty good point when he said that the rebate checks millions of Americans will receive as part of a congressional stimulus package will likely go to goods made elsewhere, which does nothing to address the dying manufacturing sector here at home.
"And frankly, in talking about the stimulus package, one of the concerns that I have is that we'll probably end up borrowing this $150 billion from the Chinese. And when we get those rebate checks, most people are going to go out and buy stuff that's been imported from China. I have to wonder whose economy is going to be stimulated the most by the package," the former Arkansas governor said.
You won't hear talk like that on the Democratic side, where it's anathema to question the soundness of cutting those checks even though economists doubt they are actually stimulative.
Yesterday's debate also saw the return of the Iraq war as a campaign issue. Romney in particular foreshadowed the general-election argument to come on this topic: "We cannot turn Iraq over to al-Qaida and have al-Qaida have a safe haven from which they could recruit people to carry out bombings, to attack this country and our friends around the world. It's unthinkable. And that's why I will not walk away from Iraq until we have been successful and finish that job."
Where there were policy differences, the candidates managed to lay out their arguments without elbowing the others along the way. We saw what looked to be genuine camaraderie between Romney and Rudy Giuliani on the heels of a New York Times article on why Romney is the most disliked candidate in this field. And speaking of Giuliani, his chuckling and snorting punctuated nearly all the lighter moments of the 90-minute debate. (Where was that Giuliani when he was mayor of New York??)
Huckabee and John McCain, who are united in trying to knock Romney out of the race, shared some jocular ribbing over their respective action star endorsements. The two funniest guys in this field seem to genuinely like each other, and it showed.
Some conservative bloggers thought it was a good night for Romney, who badly needs a good night these days. But mostly everyone thought the kumbaya-ing was kind of a bore.
Florida is a key state for the Republicans because of money and Rudy. The former NYC mayor led national polls early last year, before national polling meant anything. Since then, Republican voters have gotten to know him and his rivals better, and his numbers have since plummeted. Conversely, McCain's and Huckabee's have rocketed. Giuliani has been working transplanted Northeasterners -- aka "snowbirds" -- in the Sunshine State, but a new Miami Herald poll shows that all his work there may be for naught: McCain and Romney are statistically tied for first at 25 percent and 23 percent, respectively, while Giuliani and Huckabee are fighting for third with 15 percent each.
And here's more bad news for Giuliani: The survey shows his support among Florida's significant Latino population has dropped like a stone. That means moderates on immigration are leaning toward McCain, and hard-liners, particularly among the Cuban population, may be favoring Romney, who's been running Spanish-language ads in the state since March 2007. But with support for the front-runners so scattered and soft, don't be surprised if Giuliani stays in it until Super Tuesday, no matter how badly he does in next week's Florida primary.
We should mention that it wasn't all hand-holding last night. The Romney camp, as per usual, sent out about 20 e-mails throughout the night attacking McCain. No one else in the field did that. Today, McCain returned the favor in a blistering press conference on Romney and with this Web ad comparing Romney's alleged flip-flops to those of '04 Democratic nominee John Kerry. So the hate goes on.
As for the Democratic field, it seems like Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama just can't keep a truce going. They had to call a time out early last week when race and gender began dominating the campaigns in an unseemly way. And then Bubba Fett attacked.
Bill Clinton's barbed jabs at Obama may have already veered into backlash territory (i.e., they are hurting his wife). Perhaps realizing that slapfights often turn off voters, both sides extended olive branches yesterday by pulling attack ads off the air in South Carolina.
Democratic primary voters go to the polls in the Palmetto State tomorrow. Polls show Obama leading Clinton, with above-the-fray John Edwards possibly making a late-breaking surge. Broken down, though, survey results in this state are all over the map. (See Pollster.com's theories on why and what it might mean.)
Though these early states are undoubtedly key litmus tests for the candidates, an underreported story here is how far Obama's momentum really carries him. He gets high marks on the trail, and his stumping has evidently put to rest many Democrats' concerns about his level of experience and electability. But between him and Clinton, he stands a far better shot of getting smashed against a wall on Super Tuesday, when 20-plus delegate-rich states go to the polls.
Maybe no one is talking about that now because it spells the end of the horserace in the Democratic contest. Where's the fun in that? His campaign must be aware of this vulnerability, though, which explains why it was the first to go up with a national ad buy (subscription).
We'll see how things shake out tomorrow. I'll be posting the results of the South Carolina contest; check back at around 7 p.m. when polls close.
Photo illustrations by Reuben Dalke
Posted at 5:51 PM
Posted to:
Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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