February 06, 2008
Big Fat Super Tuesday: It's Still Not Over!
1:58. Obama's declared the "winner winner" in Missouri. He and Clinton are running about even in New Mexico.
In the Republican field, it's near impossible to see how anyone stops McCain. A comeback for the history books, surely. It will be interesting to see how he's received Thursday at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, which he skipped last year because there was so much hostility toward him. The Gate will be there.
Meanwhile, Romney is meeting with his top advisers tomorrow to discuss his future, the Boston Globe reports. He's been accusing Huckabee of splitting the evangelical vote, but Huckabee's supporters are more likely to go to McCain should their guy bail out. The South was in a pretty anti-Romney mood today, and there's reason to believe this has something to do with religion.
Knowingly or not, Huckabee has used the religion wedge to his advantage. Some would say knowingly, although he hasn't really been called out on it.
We're going to call it a night. Check back tomorrow later today for those lingering New Mexico and Alaska results.
1:26. MSNBC's Chuck Todd did the math, and he projects Obama and Clinton will be about tied in delegate counts. They will have to soldier on in the upcoming contests: Louisiana (2/9), Washington (2/9), Maine (2/10), D.C. (2/12), Maryland (2/12), Virginia (2/12) and probably beyond.
A worry for the Democratic Party is the fact that the GOP nomination could be wrapped up pretty soon, affording that candidate an opportunity to focus completely on fundraising. Democrats have a big cash advantage but stand to lose it the longer their nomination contest lasts beyond the time the GOP contest ends.
Democratic voters are pleased with their choice, and that's part of the problem. Clinton's turned in strong debate performances, she has the "appears presidential" thing going for her, as well as the fabled Clinton machine. Obama delivers inspirational speeches, is fresh, hopeful and not Hillary Clinton. Or Bill Clinton, for that matter. This contest is tight for a reason.
1:02. What we're waiting on: the Democratic winner in New Mexico. (The state isn't holding its GOP contest today.)
Also pending: the Republican winner in Alaska.
12:47. Colorado goes to Romney.
12:43. Alaska denies Mike Gravel a native-son win: Obama gets that state.
12:40. O-kay.... MSNBC is now calling Obama the "apparent winner" in Missouri, which is what they did for Clinton previously. That is somehow not the same as the "winner winner."
12:35. Why AP retracted its Missouri call: With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Obama pulled ahead of Clinton on the back of St. Louis County, 49 percent to 48.2 percent. About 5,000 votes separate Obama from a big-prize Midwest sweep.
MSNBC explains that it called the race for Clinton because at that time, it seemed "mathematically impossible" for her to get knocked out of first place. Apparently, that was not the case.
12:32. Wow, Ann Curry's still here. Does that mean she gets the day off "The Today Show?"
12:21. Oh, dear. After checking the box for Clinton in Missouri, MSNBC now says the state is too close to call. AP is also backtracking on its initial call for Clinton. Nail-biter!
12:16. And Missouri goes to McCain. It was *almost* Huckabee's; Romney comes in third. Huckabee is a wild card no more.
12:14. McCain wins California. The outcome here was far murkier for McCain than it was for Clinton. This is officially a pretty bad night for Romney.
12:11. Clinton wins both California and Missouri. Obama is denied a Midwestern prize sweep, and the biggest prize of all goes to Clinton.
12:05. Why we're staying up: California and purple state Missouri remain too close to call.
12:01. Super Tuesday is now Super-Tired Wednesday.
12:00. Montana goes to Romney.
11:59. Huckabee claims Tennessee, and Obama claims Colorado.
11:48. McCain's and Obama's speeches overlapped a bit.
First McCain: "Tonight, we have to get used to the idea that we are the Republican Party's front-runner for the presidency of the United States! And I don't mind it one bit!"
We get kind words for Huckabee, which is par for the course from McCain these days, but we also get some nice words for Romney.
"He and I have been going at it pretty hard over the last few weeks, and he's a tough competitor," McCain says. He goes on to express his "respect" for Romney as a political rival and says of Romney's supporters, "I salute them, too."
Also, McCain's mom is turning 96 in two days, he says. Wow.
On to Obama, addressing supporters in Chicago. Like Clinton, he sends his condolences to the victims of the storms in Tennessee and Arkansas, and he adds this dig at Bush: "I hope our federal government will respond quickly and rapidly to make sure they get all the help they need." The audience gets the Katrina reference and cheers.
The results from California are still coming in, "but there is one thing on this February night that we do not need the final results to know: Our time has come." Wild applause. "Our time has come, our movement is real, and change is coming to America."
He returns Clinton's congrats, then needles her later on her vote authorizing the war in Iraq.
11:36. McCain's about to speak, and he's intro'd with the "Rocky" theme song. Ha.
11:18. The nice people of Minnesota cast a vote for Romney.
11:15. Clinton picks up Arizona.
11:12. MSNBC interviews Huckabee, who insists he has no plans to end his campaign. Asked to address allegations from Romney's camp that Huckabee is somehow "in cahoots" with McCain to trip up the former Massachusetts governor, Huckabee scoffs that Romney has forgotten that politics can be conducted "in a gentlemanly way."
Not that anyone needs more proof that Romney is intensely disliked in this field.... But what happens if Romney wins the nomination? Do McCain and Huckabee swallow their discomfort and campaign for Romney? There's a sect of former McCain voters who've never forgiven him his embrace of President Bush during the 2004 election.
11:06. McCain takes his home state of Arizona; Romney wins North Dakota; and Obama wins Minnesota and Idaho.
11:00. Before addressing her supporters in New York, Clinton pauses to mention the deadly weather hitting the South, where several people have died and dozens are missing.
"Our thoughts and prayers go out to them in this moment of their need," she says.
The room doesn't stay quiet for long, as Clinton rolls out her stump speech. She has since incorporated her now-famous words from that emotional moment in New Hampshire.
"You know that politics isn't a game. It's not about who's up or who's down. It's about your lives, your families, your futures," she says to tremendous applause. And here's an apparent dig at Obama: "When the lights are off and the cameras are gone, who can you count on to listen to you, to stand up for you, to deliver solutions for you?"
Clinton went on to extend congratulations to Obama, in what now seems a mission to offer niceties as often as possible to her rival for the nomination.
10:51. Put Georgia in the Huckabee column.
10:41. Now it's Romney's turn to address supporters... and deliver one head-scratcher of a speech.
"One thing that's clear is this campaign is going on!" Romney exclaimed, acknowledging that results from out West, where he's expected to perform well, are still trickling in.
After stating the raison d’être for his campaign -- future generations -- he went on, "I'm very concerned about the kind of America they're going to inherit. I want to make sure that the kind of prosperity we've known, the kind of peace that we've always experienced, the safety that we've always felt, that it's part of my kids' lives, and their kids' lives, and theirs indeed as well. Those that brought this to us paid a very heavy price."
It's one thing to look back on the Greatest Generation when arguing that the nation has overcome enormous odds before and will again. President Bush does it often when he speaks about the current war on terror. But it's another thing to look back on the Greatest Generation as if it happened yesterday. Voters are being driven to the polls by their anxiety about the economy and the war in Iraq. That was a strange way for Romney to kick off his address.
And then Romney tipped his hat to great leaders "like Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush and Teddy Roosevelt."
Bush 41 is no hero of the conservative movement. In fact, he's resented by that base, because he raised taxes and because he appointed the liberal Justice David Souter. Also a weird moment for Romney. He continued on to deliver his standard Washington-is-broken stump message, but whoever wrote this speech deserves a talking-to.
10:26. Obama's Midwest sweep continues via Kansas. And in a blow to Clinton, he wins Connecticut.
10:21. Now that most of the Southern states are called, Huckabee is calling it a night by addressing supporters. He's still competing for Georgia, though, and is also showing a surprising lead in Missouri.
"Over the past few days, a lot of people have been trying to say this is a two-man race. Well, you know what? It is and we're in it," Huckabee said before a crowd of supporters in Little Rock.
He vowed to reunite not only his party but the country too, and said that Americans should "realize that our greatest strength is not in the government we elect.... It's in the ordinary people who do the choosing."
"It still is a land of the people, and we're going to continue to prove that even with little resources but lots of heart, the presidency can belong to the people of this country," Huckabee said.
The fishes-and-loaves candidate has really stuck it to the well-heeled Romney in these early nominating contests. He clearly would rather see McCain win the nod than his fellow former governor, and there's speculation that he's gunning for a place on the GOP ticket or in a McCain Cabinet. Whatever the truth really is, what he's managed to do with little name recognition and nearly zero money just months ago, in an era of campaigns that are the GDP of tiny nations, is quite remarkable.
And in case you were wondering: no Chuck Norris sightings tonight.
10:05. Utah goes to Obama.
10:02. And the Mountain states keep rolling in: Obama claims North Dakota.
10:00. Romney, as expected, wins Utah.
9:58. Oof -- McCain's taken Oklahoma, which neighbors Huckabee's Arkansas.
9:52. Does a good night for McCain spell doom for the conservative movement? Not necessarily, says Jonah Goldberg, of the pro-Romney National Review.
9:47. Per MSNBC, polls are closing early in Tennessee as deadly weather hits the South.
9:44. As we all brace for a long night waiting for California's returns, check out these interviews with black voters in Oakland, courtesy of former NationalJournal.com producer and now UC Berkeley grad student Lisa Pickoff-White.
9:30. So now's the part when everyone starts fantasizing about how Clinton and the establishment Democrats who've endorsed Obama -- i.e., the Kennedys -- kiss and make up if she wins the nomination. Surely, Edward Kennedy will campaign for her, and Clinton will gladly accept his help. That's not quite the point.
Obama's South Carolina victory, and the speech that we hereby anoint The Speech, signaled that the era of Clintonian dominance in the Democratic Party was approaching its nadir. The end may not come this November, and it might not even come in 2012. But it will come. And guess who'll be leading the charge?
9:24. Obama takes Alabama.
9:20. Clinton takes New Jersey. She has managed to fend off Obama's advances on her turf in the Northeast and is forcing him to share the spoils in the South. Considering Obama's huge momentum going into today's vote, this is turning out to be a pretty good night for Camp Clinton.
No surprise: McCain wins New York.
9:05. Forgot to mention re: Clinton's Massachusetts win: Obama had the Kennedys.
9:03. Delaware goes to Obama -- without a Joseph Biden endorsement, no less.
9:00. And Clinton's hung on to her home state: New York goes to its junior senator.
8:57. Big win for Clinton: She gets Massachusetts, despite popular Gov. Deval Patrick's Obama endorsement.
8:54. A reminder of why Huckabee's wins are bad for Romney: If Huckabee gets out, his supporters are more likely to go McCain. Huckabee doesn't like Romney, and his supporters don't like Romney.
8:52. And Alabama goes to Huckabee. Looks like he really is Romney's spoiler in the South... still waiting on Georgia, though.
8:51. Hey, everyone: It's Bill Richardson and his beard on MSNBC!
8:48. Oh, boy: voting problems in California.
8:40. Per TPM's Election Central: Camp Clinton is using her Oklahoma and Tennessee wins to counter Obama's assertion that he's the broad-coalition candidate.
8:35. McCain takes Delaware.
8:30. No surprises here: Arkansas goes to its former first lady, Clinton, and its former governor, Huckabee.
8:17. And Tennessee goes to Clinton.
8:13. Potentially some bad news for Clinton: New Jersey is too close to call. The Bobby D factor?
8:10. NBC/MSNBC is our content partner, by the way. When they call races, we'll call races.
8:00. Ack! So much, so fast.
NBC projects Illinois for Obama and Oklahoma for Clinton. On the GOP side, Massachusetts goes to its former governor; New Jersey, Illinois and Connecticut go for McCain.
7:44. Go to PBS' "NewsHour" for a discussion of the merits and disadvantages of this extra-long, extra-early primary calendar. Richard Norton Smith: The Democratic Party needs to revamp these proportional delegates contests.
Hear, hear.
David Brooks: These contests have taken down a notch the importance of consultants and ad money.
Probably true; just ask Mitt Romney. Does that mean presidential candidates exercise more fiscal conservatism in future contests? Without significant changes to campaign finance rules, don't count on it.
7:24. Per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Georgia Democrats were most concerned about the economy. An overwhelming number -- 92 percent -- said the economy was not doing well, according to exit polling, and most -- 53 percent -- named the economy the most important issue facing the country. The Clinton camp was hoping ballooning concern about the economy would work in her favor, since her husband's administration receives generally good marks on that issue.
7:13. There are 87 delegates up for grabs in the Georgia Dem contest, but Obama won't necessarily win them all. The Democratic contest is particularly tricky because of various state rules for how delegates are distributed. In Georgia, 57 of the delegates are district level and 30 are statewide. The district-level delegates will be awarded according to the vote in each congressional district; the statewide delegates according to the statewide vote.
So we may not really be able to sort out who's ahead until the pledged delegates are confirmed and counted. For instance, per Hotline's Amy Walter, we might not have the final tally in California until later this week.
6:59. Wow, already? Obama is projected to win Georgia. On the Republican side, still too close to call.
6:56. Hi everyone, and welcome to The Gate's live coverage of Super Tuesday 2008. With votes held in 24 states spanning the coasts, tonight could be a very long night indeed.
Super Tuesday is very much a numbers game, particularly for the Democratic candidates, neither one of whom is expected to sweep the contests. After riding high in the polls for the better part of a year, Hillary Rodham Clinton has lost the sheen of inevitability, and she actually seems quite vulnerable. We'll be watching to see if Barack Obama's challenges to her in big-delegate-count states she was thought to own -- California, New Jersey and New York -- prove effective. A loss in her home state could be devastating, image-wise.
As for the Republicans, it's all about John McCain. A strong enough performance could effectively hand him the nomination. He faces a major challenge from Mitt Romney in California, where a win could keep the former Massachusetts governor in the game. Romney has been painting Mike Huckabee as his spoiler in the South. Huckabee's already taken West Virginia, and he is expected to be competitive in other Southern states.
We'll be watching for reactions, surprises, changes in storylines and the big picture. Check out our friends at the Hotline for delegate math and exit polling results. They, by the way, consider this The Greatest Night Of The Year. We say it's certainly The Longest. Eh.
Hang on tight, and refresh early and often.
Photo Illustration: Reuben Dalke
Posted at 1:59 AM
Posted to:
Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, George H.W. Bush, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Mike Gravel, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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