February 20, 2008
If Speeches Were Horses, Clinton Would Be So Dead Right Now
Either the Obama campaign is too hopeful or too darn cynical for its own good.
And either the Clinton campaign is too arrogant or too tone-deaf for its own good.
Beware the punditocracy.
Whereas two weeks ago it was premature to call Ohio and Texas do-or-die states for Hillary Rodham Clinton, that is not the case today. In most other election years, Wisconsin and Hawaii would be two "so what?" states. Not this year, and not on the heels of three straight primary/caucus sweeps for Barack Obama.
Out of the 10 contests Obama's won since the Super Tuesday draw, Wisconsin's tilt toward Obama is the most significant. (NJ's James Barnes has a feature on this today.) Obama is eating into all of Clinton's constituents, including older white men, single white women and lower-income Democrats. Now the question everyone is asking is whether Camp Clinton can slow this train down.
In terms of message, Clinton finds herself in a kind of lockbox. She has tried to co-opt Obama's "change" message to argue that any Democrat, her especially, represents big change following eight years under President Bush. That seemed to make sense six months ago, and then through a series of, yes, rhetorical flourishes, Obama managed to draw polarities between the two. Back then, Democrats viewed Obama and Clinton as two peas in a very attractive pod. Today, despite a remarkable sameness in most of their platforms, these two candidates could hardly look more different.
Is it sleight of hand on Obama's part? Camp Clinton would say yes. But try convincing an enamored and hopeful Democratic electorate that the candidate who inspires them most is playing them for a fool. When Clinton tells voters that she is the reliable candidate, the one they can count on most to deliver tangible results, she is basically portraying herself as the Volvo candidate. It's a solid, critically acclaimed car, but is there an American out there who dreams of one day driving one around? (Even Volvo is trying to make over its image these days.)
So what positives are left for Clinton to campaign on? The best one is that she'll be "ready on Day One," particularly now that John McCain is the presumptive GOP nominee. The war on terror and post-Bush Iraq planning are still her strong suits (though the candidates are still living in rhetoricland on these issues). Debates are also one of her strengths, and we'll see tomorrow night if Obama's snatched that away from her, too.
Now, it seems, McCain is also trying to sweep Clinton aside. He's revived a gaffe Obama made in July when he seemed to endorse unilaterally going after al-Qaida in Pakistan. Obama has since clarified his position -- and challenged his rivals to say whether they would take out al-Qaida's leaders based on irrefutable intelligence.
Just as Clinton used the July debate gaffe to paint Obama as naive and unprepared to be commander in chief, McCain chided today, "The best idea is not to broadcast what you're going to do. That's naive."
So Obama is taking hits from two corners, and still Clinton is the one flailing. She has been trying to make up ground since losing Iowa, when she had been running as the inevitable nominee. If anyone is wondering why Clinton isn't connecting with voters as well as Obama seems to be, it's useful to keep in mind that she only began taking questions from them in New Hampshire.
By most insiders' accounts, Clinton is eminently likable. That comes across in debates at times, such as the "Well, that hurts my feelings" moment here. And frankly, anyone who can hold her own in a vodka-drinking contest with John McCain is someone we'd like to throw back a few with as well.
It just may not be enough.
Obama so far is both the Teflon candidate and Clinton's kryptonite. He's managed to nullify every message she's come up with that would normally resonate with Democrats and independents this election year. He hasn't disproved that she is the candidate she says she is. He's just made it not matter as much to an increasingly large pool of voters.
It's probably a safe bet that with her positives all rendered toothless, Clinton has no choice but to go more and more negative. The plagiarism strike against Obama has just bounced back to hit her -- many pundits think it was desperate and silly. A more legitimate criticism of Obama has emerged -- his alleged waffling on public financing -- but McCain is taking the lead on that one.
So what's left? To those in the (sometimes paranoid) Never Underestimate A Clinton camp, quite a bit.
"The view in Clintonland," John Heilemann writes, is "they have more arrows in their quiver to fire at Obama, charges they believe will cast doubt on the hopemonger, raising the specter (terrifying to many Democrats) that John McCain and the Republican machine will make mincemeat of him."
Anyone else wincing already?
Posted at 5:40 PM
Posted to:
Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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