February 12, 2008
WH '08: The Hurry-Up Primary Campaign
In homage to the great sportswriter (and Brookings Institution egghead) Gregg Easterbrook, we're dubbing today's spate of regional votes the Potomac Drainage Basin Primary. (It's no worse than any of the other nicknames we've seen.)
So in case you missed it, there's a primary vote happening today in Virginia, Maryland and right here in the District. Barack Obama's going to sweep those votes, and Hillary Rodham Clinton is going to keep losing contests until March 4's Ohio and Texas primaries, which she might also lose. Wow, those are a long way away. She's a goner.
And... scene.
So goes our cheeky ribbing of the media speculation-a-thon regarding today's primaries, which according to MSM bylaws a) must have a cutesy nickname (Chesapeake or Crab Cake?) and b) must be predictive of the nomination winner and, while we're at it, the winner of the November general election vote.
The Washington Post's Dan Balz throws some cold water on everyone's impulse to fast-forward the democratic process by patiently explaining that neither Obama nor Clinton can accurately be called the front-runner. Nor is the deadlock between them a sure sign that the Democratic Party has been "broken." Voters have two clear choices before them, and in upcoming contests, they are casting ballots for one or the other. That's called a nominating contest, not civil war.
And not to beat a dead horse, but New Hampshire should have shown everyone that the conventional wisdom is often wrong.
So, with no clear front-runner in this field, Clinton and Obama are still in the hunt for delegates in the area today, then in Wisconsin and Hawaii, then in Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas, and so on and so on, until one of them racks up the 2,025 needed to clinch the nomination. Is that so hard to live with?
Even if all of today's Potomac Drainage Basin Primary contests fall to Obama, there are aspects to chew on other than who's up, who's down (to borrow a new Clintonism). For one, normally disenfranchised District voters found a purpose in getting up and braving the cold today. "If I could find somebody who was half Clinton and half Obama, that would have been the best way of voting," one excited Democratic voter told the Washington Post.
Those of us who live here have been dodging fellow Washingtonians outside Metro stops and on street corners waving placards for Obama or Clinton despite freezing weather. D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty has led impromptu rallies for Obama; meanwhile, campaign surrogates including Bill and Chelsea Clinton pumped up thousands of local college students this week. For a non-state that doesn't rank a voting member of Congress, that's pretty cool.
(Fenty may have broken election rules in his excitement today -- which, for the record, isn't so cool.)
For those really champing for a front-runner, there's John McCain. Realistically, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has no shot at overtaking McCain. That doesn't mean continuing to campaign is pointless.
Forcing McCain to continue to sell himself, especially when a very vocal wing of the GOP is revolting at his candidacy, can't be a bad thing for voters who have yet to give the candidates serious thought. And Huckabee wants the chance to prove he has appeal beyond his natural constituency: white evangelicals.
As voters become ever more concerned about the tanking economy, Huckabee is seeking to capitalize on the advantage this gives him over McCain, who doesn't count domestic policy as one of his strong suits. In a breakfast with the Christian Science Monitor, Huckabee protested that the media are trying to "ghettoize" him as the evangelical candidate.
To those who can't fathom why a candidate facing such long odds would want to go on trying to convince voters he's the best man for the job, Huckabee flatly denies that he's holding out for the usual goodies, i.e., some other political office.
Asked if he was plotting a Senate run against incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor, Huckabee responded, "There is a greater chance that I will dye my hair green and get tattoos all over my body and do a rock tour with Amy Winehouse than there is that I would run for the Senate. So let me put that one to rest."
People want this guy to drop out??
Which brings us to another issue: Both Huckabee and McCain, charmers that they are, have largely escaped the close scrutiny laid on former rival Mitt Romney and would-be rival Hillary Clinton. Keeping the GOP race going could force the media to talk about something other than inevitability. Like, oh, say, their platforms.
Huckabee's economic populism and previously stated support for a federal ban on smoking helped earn him the nickname "Huckananny." The former governor has since backtracked on the smoking ban, saying he thinks smoking regulations ought to be left up to states but that he would sign a federal ban if Congress passed it. Meanwhile, he's thrown federalism out the window on abortion, demanding that McCain join his support for a federal ban on abortion and embryonic stem cell research.
McCain, who is pro-life, remains a federalist on abortion, in keeping with conservatives' original objection to Roe v. Wade (an historical fact that gets lost in the modern shoutfest on this issue). Both Romney and Rudy Giuliani eventually landed where McCain is, more or less, during their campaigns.
As for McCain, we pointed this out when the prodigal candidate went before CPAC last week: Why do so many war critics support his candidacy? McCain is arguing that, because he was right about post-invasion planning and the surge strategy, he is best qualified to command for the duration of the war. Do those anti-war voters really understand what a McCain presidency could mean for the war, not to mention U.S. policy toward neighboring Iran?
Both Clinton and Obama are arguing that a McCain win this November guarantees a third term for President Bush, and that might be accurate as far as the war goes. Asked about future U.S. involvement in Iraq, McCain says only that failure is not an option, which is essentially Bush's policy. The former war hero won't even address the possibility that brokering a coherent, sovereign Iraq might be out of reach, and so far, few are pressing him very hard on the matter.
Matt Welch, of the libertarian Reason magazine, has a new book out that's not flattering to McCain. He also penned an op-ed on McCain's war platform that recently appeared in the Los Angeles Times.
Our colleagues at On Call are posting returns tonight. Check back with The Gate tomorrow for analysis and reaction to the great Potomac Drainage Basin Primary of 2008.
Photo Illustration: Reuben Dalke
Posted at 6:10 PM
Posted to:
Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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