February 20, 2008

Can These Guys Run Pakistan?

Pervez Musharraf, who seized power illegally and whose unpopularity now prompts rioting in Pakistan's streets, isn't going anywhere.

Not if he can help it, anyway. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal (subscription), Musharraf stubbornly insisted on his relevance to Pakistani politics and said he would help shepherd in the newly elected government.

But the leaders of the two parties that won big in Monday's parliamentary election -- former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-N Party and Asif Ali Zardari of the Pakistan Peoples Party -- called on Musharraf to step down. The two are meeting today to discuss, in all likelihood, forming a broad-based coalition government that does not include Musharraf.

"He used to say that when people expressed no confidence in him that he would leave. Now the people have announced their decision," said Sharif, who was tossed out of office in the military coup led by the former general in 1999.

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Posted to: Afghanistan, Al-Qaida, Asia, Bush Administration, Pakistan, President Bush, Terrorism
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February 13, 2008

Suspects Confess To Bhutto Assassination

Two men being held in the Dec. 27 assassination of Benazir Bhutto have confessed to participating in the suicide bombing plot that killed the former Pakistani prime minister and more than a dozen others.

Hasnain Gul and Rafaqat, who goes by one name, told Pakistani authorities they provided the suicide bomber with shelter, "a suicide jacket and a pistol," the lead police investigator said.

The two were detained in a police raid in Rawalpindi on Feb. 7.

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Posted to: Asia, Pakistan
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February 08, 2008

Scotland Yard: Blast, Not Gunshot, Killed Bhutto

After being called in several weeks ago to probe the death of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, Scotland Yard investigators have concluded that a suicide bomb -- not a gunshot -- killed the former prime minister.

The report confirms that a gunman fired shots in Bhutto's direction just before the Dec. 27 blast, as previously reported, but that he missed and she was actually killed by the force of the explosion which caused her head to slam against her car. It also states that the gunman himself set off the bomb.

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February 06, 2008

What's The Point Of NATO, Anyway?

The U.S. and Britain have been fighting an uphill battle to win deeper commitments from NATO allies in Afghanistan. With recent independent reports warning that Afghanistan may be tipping back into failed statehood, and a critical upcoming vote in Canada that could determine that country's ongoing security contributions, NATO member nations are facing a kind of do-or-die moment.

The question at hand is: What is NATO's mission in the 21st century?

NATO was formed during the Cold War to fend off the Soviet threat. It was a mutual security pact, in which an attack on one was to be perceived as an attack on all.

After the 9/11 attacks, it became clear that al-Qaida was now the biggest threat facing the West. With little debate, NATO's mission was updated for the 21st century, and forces were sent to Afghanistan.

More than six years later, the success of NATO's fight against the Taliban and al-Qaida is in dispute. The war in Iraq sapped resources from Afghanistan, and more importantly sapped confidence in the United States' and Britain's leadership roles there. Nations have withdrawn forces over the last several years, and now the fighting -- and dying -- falls disproportionately on the U.S., Britain, the Netherlands and Canada.

Member nations privately blame the U.S. and Britain for being so preoccupied with the war in Iraq -- overwhelmingly unpopular among member nations -- that they delivered a seemingly half-hearted effort in Afghanistan. Washington and 10 Downing Street vehemently deny this is the case.

Without positing it directly, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is challenging member nations to remember the point of NATO and step up their contributions. "I do think the alliance is facing a real test here. And it is a test of the alliance's strength," she said at a press conference with British Foreign Secretary David Miliband today.

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Posted to: Afghanistan, Al-Qaida, Bush Administration, Europe, Germany, Iraq, Middle East, Military, Pakistan, President Bush, Robert Gates, Terrorism, U.K.
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January 31, 2008

Reports: Top Al-Qaida Operative Killed

One of al-Qaida's top commanders in Afghanistan, Abu Laith al-Libi, has been killed, reportedly near the Afghan-Pakistan border, several sources confirm. However, the details of his death are still fuzzy.

The news first appeared on Ekhlaas.org, a Web site used by Islamist groups, BBC News reports. It has since been confirmed by the Washington-based SITE Institute and various news organizations.

Al-Libi, a senior leader of the terrorist organization, served as a "key liaison" with the Taliban, according to AP. Citing Pakistani intelligence officials and locals, AP reports that "a missile hit a compound in a village about 2.5 miles outside Mir Ali in North Waziristan late Monday or early Tuesday, destroying the facility." Pakistani officials said they did not know the source of the missile. BBC News reports that about a dozen militants were killed in the attack, including al-Libi.

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Posted to: Afghanistan, Al-Qaida, Pakistan, Terrorism
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January 24, 2008

Freedom Falters Worldwide

If 2007 seemed like a bad year for democracy, that's because it was, according to new data from Freedom House, a U.S.-based organization that monitors and promotes freedom around the world. The group recently released its report on 2007, citing a "notable setback for global freedom" for the second consecutive year.

Freedom House uses its own set of criteria to divide nations into three categories: "free," "partly free" and "not free." In 2007, one-fifth of the world's nations experienced a decline in freedom, the group says. Although the number of countries in the "not free" category did not grow over the last year, "there were many changes within these broad categories" that demonstrate an alarming trend, a press release announcing the report claims. These reversals were seen in countries across the globe -- from sub-Saharan Africa to the former Soviet Union.

Nearly four times as many countries saw declines in levels of freedom as showed improvement. Dishearteningly, several countries that had been experiencing progress toward democracy in recent years, such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nigeria and Kenya, took steps backward in 2007. Two former Soviet countries that underwent "color revolutions" fairly recently -- Kyrgyzstan and Georgia -- also reversed track last year, Freedom House reports.

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Posted to: Africa, Asia, China, Europe, Iran, Kenya, Middle East, Pakistan
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January 03, 2008

Musharraf 'Not Fully Satisfied' With Handling Of Bhutto's Death

In a press conference one week after the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf today forcefully denied claims that his government had any involvement in the slain former prime minister's death, and he offered his request for an inquiry by Scotland Yard as proof.

"We don't mind going to any extent, as nobody is involved from the government or agency side," he said. Musharraf also denied accusations that Bhutto's security detail was inadequate and suggested that she was partly responsible for her own death. "Who is to be blamed for her coming out (of) her vehicle?" he asked. The president expressed hope that British investigators will be able to come up with answers.

Despite his denial of any government role in Bhutto's death, Musharraf indicated that he was unsatisfied with the way Pakistan handled the aftermath.

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January 02, 2008

HappyIowaNewIowaYearIowa

In case you missed it, and there's pretty much no chance you have, the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow, Jan. 3, more than eight months (!) before the first party nominating convention will be held. The ground in both fields has shifted dramatically this month alone, which indicates that what the tiny percentage of Iowans who caucus tomorrow have to say will probably not hold.

Nonetheless, there are more media outlets on the ground in Iowa today than ever before, and coverage is wall-to-wall. We've explained before why Iowa polls are unreliable. The new Register surveys, which show Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in the lead, were conducted Dec. 27-30, when enough Iowans to skew the results were probably traveling and therefore were unable to pick up the phone. There are also questions about whether Iowans, who by some accounts are receiving more than one campaign-related phone call a night, are still picking up their phones at all. (Think about it: Would you?)

Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal -- a new National Journal Group colleague (welcome!) -- has some must-read explanations of Iowa polling.

Moreover, there are long-lingering questions about the actual significance of the Iowa caucuses. Democratic caucus-goers tend to be more liberal than primary voters elsewhere, and GOP caucus-goers more conservative. Fewer than 10 percent of Iowans, who are overwhelmingly white, participate, but the outsized media coverage arguably has a king-making effect. Those candidates who don't place in the top five might be considered road kill by Friday morning, which could doom them in other states where they are faring better.

Georgetown's Christopher Hull crunches the numbers in his new book, "Grassroots Rules" (seriously, there are charts and graphs). If you want to understand Iowa's effect on party nominations, read this book. His ultimate conclusion is that Iowa is important. But: "Controlling for New Hampshire results and measures of exhibition season performance, Iowa is not a statistically significant predictor of overall primary performance."

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Posted to: Asia, Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Media, Mike Huckabee, Pakistan, Republicans, WH 2008
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December 28, 2007

Why We Fight

Before the Christmas break, we wrote that Americans' dwindling interest in the Iraq war might be perilous to the national interest, as Alasdair Roberts recently contended in Foreign Policy. Now the war on terrorism -- which even critics of President Bush must admit now includes Iraq -- is back in the headlines, thanks to yesterday's tragic events.

The view from Washington is that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a serious kneecap blow to U.S. foreign policy. To quickly review: President Pervez Musharraf, an ally by necessity, is increasingly unpopular at home and for good reason. (People who live under military dictatorships generally do not enjoy the experience.) Meanwhile, there's a virulent strain of anti-Western, Islamic fanaticism seeping through Pakistan at the moment, which means this White House's usually cherished principles of liberty and democracy do not apply.

The Bhutto-Musharraf power-sharing compromise was seen as the most feasible shot at calming Pakistan's restive populace. In Bhutto, Washington saw a more reliable and transparent ally in the war against extremism, in part because of her shady ethical past. She had something to prove.

Now that she's gone, we're back to where we were, and less than two weeks before Pakistan's elections no less. No doubt there is panic in the Beltway today, if only for the dearth of available options now.

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Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Bush Administration, Campaigns, China, Democrats, Iraq, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Middle East, Pakistan, President Bush, Republicans, Ron Paul, Russia, Terrorism, WH 2008
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Bhutto Assassination: The Morning After

A roundup of how editorial boards and pundits reacted to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto:

"Bhutto was a flawed and undeniably courageous leader. Her return to Pakistan two months ago raised hopes that her country might find its way toward democracy and stability. Her assassination on Thursday is yet one more horrifying reminder of how far Pakistan is from both -- and how close it is to the brink." -- New York Times

"Ms. Bhutto was the most powerful advocate of secular democracy in her country; she had the courage to confront both Islamic militants and the autocratic government of President Pervez Musharraf.... Her tragic death may open the way to violence and political chaos that could be exploited by al-Qaeda and the Taliban, unless Mr. Musharraf and the country's surviving moderate forces act quickly and wisely." -- Washington Post

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December 27, 2007

Bhutto Assassination: U.S. Policy Unchanged... But For How Long?

UPDATED.

Officials in the Bush administration said that current White House policy toward Pakistan hadn't immediately changed in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination, despite questions about whether President Pervez Musharraf had a role in today's attack.

"U.S. policy has always been based on promoting a... peaceful, moderate country" in Pakistan, said State Department spokesman Tom Casey. "Our efforts have not been focused on any individuals, but on achieving that goal."

President Bush and Musharraf are to speak by phone today. Administration officials are being careful not to go beyond expressing condolences and general condemnations of terrorism as they monitor the delicate political crisis in Pakistan. Fires broke out as Bhutto supporters rioted in the streets. Islamabad declared a "red alert," meaning police were on guard against violent outbreaks related to her death, but stopped short of imposing martial law.

(For our report on Bhutto's assassination and the initial reaction, click here.)

Administration officials said they would offer whatever help Pakistan needed but that they had not been asked to assist in a pending investigation into the attack. If the White House is questioning whether Musharraf could have provided greater security for Bhutto, as it requested, officials aren't saying. Pakistan's military and intelligence services are riddled with Islamic extremists. Whether that is a result of Musharraf's ineptitude or relish for political expediency is another question observers are asking, but that the White House is not -- out loud, anyway.

"We are going to continue working with President Musharraf," Casey said. "We are going to continue working with the PPP [Bhutto's opposition Pakistan People's Party] and other moderate democratic elements in Pakistan to try to bring us all together to achieve those goals."

Casey continued, "We intend to move forward with current policy."

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Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Bush Administration, Pakistan, President Bush, Terrorism
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Breaking: Benazir Bhutto Killed In Attack

UPDATED.

Outraged supporters of Benazir Bhutto have taken to the streets following confirmation that the Pakistani opposition leader was assassinated today, with at least one province placed on emergency alert.

Bhutto had just spoken at a campaign rally in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad, and had gotten into a car when a gunman opened fire. The apparent assassin then blew himself up. There are conflicting reports on how she was killed. Some witnesses said she had been shot in the neck and chest, while a doctor at the hospital that treated her told the New York Times she had shrapnel wounds but would not confirm she had been directly shot.

At least 15 other people were also killed in the attack, according to various news reports. "Police in Sindh have been put on red alert," a police official told Reuters, referring to Bhutto's home province. "We have increased deployment and are patrolling in all the towns and cities, as there is trouble almost everywhere."

Television footage is showing mobs of people setting fires and destroying property in the streets.

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Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Bill Richardson, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, John McCain, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, President Bush, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, Terrorism, WH 2008
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December 21, 2007

Mosque Bombing Kills At Least 50 In Pakistan

UPDATED.

At least 50 people were killed in Pakistan today when a bomb exploded inside a mosque during the celebration of Eid al-Adha, a Muslim holiday marking the end of the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

Worshippers inside the Islamabad mosque were observing the holiday with Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, Pakistan's former interior minister, whose political party has been targeted before. Sherpao and his family were not injured in today's bombing, but he was also targeted in an April suicide attack near Islamabad that killed nearly 30 people.

"It was a massacre," Sherpao told the New York Times. "I can tell you that." Sherpao is running in the parliamentary elections set for mid-January, which will likely change the balance of power in Pakistan. (BBC News has a profile of Sherpao.)

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November 28, 2007

Musharraf Resigns As Pakistani Army Chief

President Pervez Musharraf made good on one of his often-repeated promises today, stepping down from his post as the head of the country's military and taking off his ubiquitious uniform. Musharraf is set to be sworn in as Pakistan's civilian president tomorrow.

"The army has been my life. The army has been my passion. The army has been my pride. The system has to carry on; there is a time when everyone has to go," he said during an elaborate ceremony this morning. "Tomorrow I will no longer be in command, but I am happy I spent these 46 years in very excellent manner. What I am is just because of this force."

Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, Musharraf's vice army chief, was promoted to the top spot. His predecessor leaves him a country in turmoil, still under the emergency rule imposed in early November.

The Post has a broader view on the army and more on Musharraf's legacy, and The Gate's previous coverage of Pakistan can be found here.

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November 19, 2007

Debating The 'Nuclear Option' In Pakistan

Thanks to the New York Times, we know more about the extent to which Washington has been secretly aiding Pakistan's military. It's doubtful, though, that this new information is making anyone feel better about the situation.

The bright line here is between Taliban sympathizers/al-Qaida and Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Everyone agrees that crossing that line would be disastrous beyond imagination. So, we aren't too surprised that Michael O'Hanlon and Frederick Kagan, of the Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Institute, respectively, agree that the U.S. needs to consider military intervention.

"The task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is beyond the means of the United States and its allies," they wrote in an op-ed published in yesterday's Times. "Thus, if we have any hope of success, we would have to act before a complete government collapse, and we would need the cooperation of moderate Pakistani forces."

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Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, Pakistan
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November 14, 2007

Musharraf Remains Defiant Amid Calls To End Emergency Rule

As U.S. envoy John Negroponte prepares to visit South Asia later this week to try and smooth over the political rift between Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the two leaders continue to spar, blaming each other for the chaos that has been brewing ever since Musharraf threw out the constitution and instituted emergency rule there.

In an interview with AP, Musharraf rebuffed Bhutto's call for his resignation and accused her of stoking the flames of unrest. Although he acknowledged an "acute trust deficit" between him and the former prime minister, he said he would still be open to working with her. "If she does become the prime minister, we will see.... It depends on her if she wants to be on a confrontational course or a conciliatory one," he said. Bhutto, however, closed the door on a possible power-sharing agreement with Musharraf in comments made yesterday.

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November 13, 2007

Bhutto: 'Musharraf Must Quit'

In her boldest challenge yet to Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto told reporters today that she wants Musharraf to step down as both head of state and army chief.

"It is over with Musharraf," she told Agence France-Presse from her residence in Lahore, where she has once again been placed on house arrest. "General Musharraf must quit.... I call on the international community to stop backing him -- to stop backing the man whose dictatorship threatens to engulf this nuclear-armed state in chaos."

She also vowed never to serve with him or under him, sounding what appears to be the final death knell for a power-sharing deal that the U.S. and other Western allies had hoped would help head off a political crisis. "I would not serve as prime minister under a man who has repeatedly broken his promises, who is a dictator," Bhutto told AFP.

Bhutto also told reporters today that she expects her Pakistan People's Party to boycott the January parliamentary elections that Musharraf promised earlier this week.

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November 09, 2007

Bhutto Placed Under House Arrest

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf opened another chapter in the saga of growing unrest in his country today, ordering military police to cordon off the Islamabad home of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto to prevent her from traveling to a protest set for this afternoon.

The New York Times reports that police turned her house "into a fortress, placing concrete barriers and barbed wire at the entrance road." Another leader from Bhutto's party, the Pakistan People's Party, said she had been served a formal detention order but refused to accept it.

Up to 5,000 of Bhutto's supporters have been arrested in recent days, according to her own estimate, and more were being taken into police custody at the site of the canceled rally in Rawalpindi.

NPR and the Times have more on today's story, and The Gate has more background on the situation.

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November 08, 2007

Musharraf Delays Elections Despite U.S. Request

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf announced today that parliamentary elections would be held by mid-February -- a month later than originally scheduled. The move goes against a request President Bush made in a phone call to Musharraf yesterday, asking him to keep the elections in January and resign from his post as the head of the army.

"My message was that we believe strongly in elections and that you ought to have elections soon and you need to take off your uniform," Bush told reporters yesterday. "You can't be the president and the head of the military at the same time, so I had a very frank discussion with him."

Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto expressed similar sentiments and called on Musharraf to abandon his military post within the week.

None of the new developments are likely to be looked upon favorably in the U.S., where officials have been struggling to figure out how to deal with the crisis. Hundreds of Bhutto supporters were arrested last night in a fresh crackdown on opposition forces just hours after Bush and Musharraf spoke. At least 3,000 people -- some of whom face death sentences after being charged with treason -- have been imprisoned since Musharraf declared emergency rule this weekend.

In defiance of the rules against large gatherings of people, which went into effect when Musharraf suspended the constitution, Bhutto's party is planning a huge rally in the city of Rawalpindi tomorrow and threatening to hold a "long march" next Tuesday.

Husain Haqqani, who has served as an adviser to Bhutto, wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this morning, and The Gate has a longer analysis of the crisis in Pakistan.

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November 07, 2007

U.S. Officials Grapple With Pakistan Crisis

As tensions mount between the Pakistani government and the lawyers, students and activists demonstrating against President Pervez Musharraf's declaration of emergency rule late last week, U.S. officials are assessing their options for handling the crisis.

The Hill reported yesterday that Musharraf's actions could boost Sen. Carl Levin's (D) proposal to cut military funding for Pakistan in the 2008 defense bill "unless the president certifies quarterly to the defense committees that Pakistan is making substantial efforts to eliminate safe havens for the Taliban, al Qaeda and other extremists in areas under its sovereign control."

Lawmakers aren't the only ones considering using the power of the purse to coax Musharraf to end the state of emergency. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack indicated yesterday that administration officials were reviewing the matter to determine whether Pakistan had taken any actions that would justify the suspension of aid. "People started work on it," he told reporters at a State Department briefing.

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Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, Congress, Pakistan
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November 05, 2007

Pakistan: When The Devil You Know Loses His Marbles

UPDATED.

For reasons we've outlined before, what's happening now in Pakistan is both extraordinary and utterly unsurprising. In the unlikely event you missed it, President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has suspended the constitution, declared emergency rule, canned most of the Supreme Court's judges, blacked out independent media and ordered troops to round up dissenters right and left.

Quite the busy weekend for the autocrat Washington warily calls friend and ally.

As many as 3,500 people have been arrested since Saturday, AP reports. Among them is Asma Jahangir of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, who has been placed under house arrest after years of railing against Musharraf's regime and escaping a couple of apparent government-sponsored assassination attempts. Writing in an e-mail to the Economist, Jahangir lamented that Musharraf had finally "lost his marbles."

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Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Pakistan, President Bush, Robert Gates
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October 30, 2007

Suicide Bomber Detonates Near Pakistani Army HQ

A suicide bomber blew himself up at a police checkpoint near Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's army home in Rawalpindi today. At least seven people were killed near the army headquarters, but Musharraf was in his office a mile away at the time of the attack and was not injured.

Another high-ranking Pakistani official, joint chiefs of staff chairman Gen. Tariq Majid, also has a residence near the blast, but he is newly appointed to the post and had not yet moved in.

The city police chief said three passersby and three policemen were among the seven people killed. Eleven were injured. Rawalpindi has been the site of two other deadly suicide bombings -- part of a spate of attacks in Pakistan blamed on radical Islamic militants -- in the last two months.

BBC News has more details.

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Posted to: Asia, Pakistan
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October 22, 2007

Bhutto Vows To Press On With Election Bid

Less than a week after the deadly terrorist attack on the day of her homecoming, former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto continues to insist her country is on the edge of democracy. But has her return destabilized the region even further?

In an interview that aired on the "Today Show" this morning, Bhutto told Ann Curry that she knew people would be put at risk by her choice to return to Pakistan. When pressed as to why she chose to arrive in an open-air motorcade rather than by helicopter, which could have prevented the deaths of 139 people, Bhutto said she found the question "uncomfortable." She finally responded that if she had taken a helicopter, it "means that terrorists can dictate the agenda. It means that terrorists, by threatening violence, can take over nations and destroy the quality of life of their people."

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Posted to: Asia, Pakistan, Terrorism
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October 19, 2007

Al-Qaida, Pakistani Government Fingered For Karachi Bombing

The death toll in last night's bombing in Pakistan has hit 139 and, with more than 500 wounded, is expected to climb. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the assumed target of the attack, was riding in a convoy through throngs of supporters upon her return after eight years of self-imposed exile.

Government officials immediately pointed to al-Qaida, saying the attack bore all the hallmarks of a particular pro-Taliban warlord who operates on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Baitullah Mehsud, authorities said, threatened suicide attacks against Bhutto last month. (Mehsud said today he was not involved in the attacks.)

Fighting Islamic terrorism has been a focus for Bhutto, and she frequently offered it as part of the justification for joining forces with General Pervez Musharraf, the sitting president of Pakistan, to create a stronger secular government.

But Bhutto's husband is placing blame on a different target. Fasi Zaka, a Pakistani columnist, told NPR this morning that Bhutto's husband and her party, the PPP, believe the Pakistani government itself "masterminded" the blast.

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October 18, 2007

Deadly Blasts Hit Convoy Carrying Bhutto

UPDATED.

Benazir Bhutto escaped an apparent terrorist attack in Karachi, marring what was to have been the former prime minister's triumphant return to Pakistan and to power. Officials later revised an already grim death toll to 126, with 240 wounded in the two explosions near her convoy.

Television footage showed vehicles on fire and bodies on the ground. Officials said Bhutto had been escorted to safety.

Bhutto had been living in exile since 1999 on what she contends are trumped-up corruption charges. She remains the leader of Pakistan's largest political party, and was greeted with wild enthusiasm from tens of thousands of supporters upon her return today.

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October 05, 2007

Court Ruling Keeps Musharraf's Power Hanging In The Balance

Pakistan's highest court delivered some good news and some bad news to President Pervez Musharraf today: The vote to re-elect him is allowed to take place tomorrow as scheduled. But a winner will not be declared until legal challenges to Musharraf's bid is resolved. Two opponents have charged that Musharraf should not be able to run for the civilian post while retaining his title as head of the army.

The New York Times reports that "both supporters of General Musharraf and opposition politicians claimed victory from the surprise court decision."

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September 20, 2007

Bin Laden Threatens Musharraf In New Tape

UPDATED.

Osama bin Laden, the elusive leader of al-Qaida who has come out of the woodwork in recent weeks, reportedly urges Pakistanis to rebel against their leader, President Pervez Musharraf, in a new recording released today.

Bin Laden's appeal for Musharraf's removal is in response to the killing of a rebel cleric during a government raid on his mosque in Islamabad last July.

The storming of the Red Mosque "demonstrated Musharraf's insistence on continuing his loyalty, submissiveness and aid to America against the Muslims ... and makes armed rebellion against him and removing him obligatory,'' bin Laden said in the message.

Meanwhile, the al-Qaida terrorist organization has also released a new video message "in which bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, boasted that the United States was being defeated in Afghanistan, Iraq and other fronts" and "promised more fighting in Afghanistan, North Africa and Sudan's Darfur region." AP has details of the video.

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Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Pakistan, Terrorism
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September 19, 2007

Musharraf To Leave Military Regardless Of Election Outcome

A senior member of Pervez Musharraf's ruling party has clarified that the Pakistani leader will be leaving his post as head of the military regardless of whether he is re-elected president this fall. Earlier this week, a lawyer for Musharraf said the president would only relinquish his military role if he won re-election, a statement that was met with swift and harsh protest from Musharraf's political and legal opponents.

"There's no going back for General Musharraf. Irrespective of whatever happens in his elections, he has decided to retire from the military," Mushahid Hussain, secretary-general of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League -- Quaid-e-Azam, said today. "There are no two ways about this.”

The clarification is considered a concession to former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, with whom Musharraf has reportedly been working on a power-sharing deal. Today, the Economist parses the uncertainties of that deal amid Pakistan's ongoing political turmoil.

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September 18, 2007

Musharraf To Scrap Army Title If Re-Elected

UPDATED.

A lawyer for Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf told that country's Supreme Court yesterday that the military leader will leave his post as army chief if he is re-elected president when his current term expires this fall. The move could pave the way for a power-sharing agreement with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, whose Pakistan People's Party has stipulated that Musharraf step down from his military role as part of the deal.

But the announcement from Musharraf's lawyer, Sharfuddin Pirzada, has already drawn sharp criticism from Musharraf's opposition in Parliament. Bhutto "called the proposal unconstitutional and undemocratic, and threatened a mass resignation of its MPs unless the government took more steps towards national reconciliation," the London Guardian reports.

The opposition party's negative reaction to Musharraf's apparent concession stems from its belief that he should wait to seek re-election by Parliament after next year's legislative elections. Opponents are still contesting the 2002 elections that yielded the current crop of lawmakers that will be tasked with re-electing Musharraf if he seeks a vote next month.

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Posted at 10:27 AM
Posted to: Asia, Pakistan
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August 29, 2007

Musharraf To Leave Military Position

As part of a power-sharing agreement with his primary political rival, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf will step down from his position as the country's military leader. Several days of talks in London led up to the announcement.

Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto told CNN today that Gen. "Musharraf recognizes that it is very difficult to move to a transition towards democracy when there's a chief of army staff ruling the country.... I think he wants to make the right decision, so I expect he's going to take the uniform off."

Musharraf also agreed to drop the pending corruption charges against Bhutto and other government officials, a move that will allow her to re-enter the country after living as an exile in London and Dubai. Bhutto, a former prime minister, previously said that she would return to her position if Musharraf left his military post.

Posted at 5:03 PM
Posted to: Asia, Pakistan
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August 20, 2007

Survey: Foreign Policy Wonks Not So Keen On The Surge

The roller coaster ride that is the public debate over the Iraq troop surge just got a bit bumpier. In recent weeks, a growing number of military experts, former skeptics and even some high-profile Democratic lawmakers seemed to be coming around to President Bush's controversial decision to raise U.S. troop levels in certain areas of Iraq this year. And the apparent growing body of evidence showing that the surge was, in fact, helping to quell the violence there seemed to be giving hope to the American public, with opinion polls showing small bumps in confidence on the security front.

But a new survey shows the nation's top foreign policy experts singing another tune. The third Terrorism Index compiled by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress reveals deep concerns within the expert community about the Bush administration's policies in Iraq and the larger war on terrorism thus far.

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Posted at 4:20 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Iraq, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, Terrorism
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August 09, 2007

Pakistan: An Inconvenient Autocracy

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's intervention this morning may have averted a worsening of the political crisis in Pakistan, but that nation's troubles, which in many ways are linked to the U.S.'s, are far from over.

According to Financial Times sources, it's likely Rice "underlined the negative impact of declaring an emergency and how this would affect Gen. [Pervez] Musharraf's image in the US Congress." Impatience with Pakistan's ineffectiveness at quelling the Taliban and al-Qaida insurgencies along its border is palpable in Congress, and taking a star turn in the presidential campaigns as well.

The death knell for Musharraf's rule is only getting louder, and serves as a useful reminder of President Bush's conveniently flexible definitions of freedom and democracy, two of the mainstays of his presidency.

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Posted at 4:42 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Al-Qaida, Asia, Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Pakistan, Terrorism
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August 06, 2007

The Obama Republican Iowa Debate

Shortly after yesterday's Republican presidential candidates debate in Iowa kicked off, this Gater found herself applauding. Was it for Mitt Romney? Tom Tancredo? Ron Paul?

None of the above. The Gate was clapping for ABC News' George Stephanopoulos, who dug out a few of those negative campaign tactics voters so despise and forced offending candidates to explain themselves.

First on the dock: Sam Brownback, a hero of pro-life conservatives who can't seem to get a leg up in the crowded race for the GOP nod. In an effort to claw upward in the polls, he's zeroed in on Romney, who's positioned himself as the only true social conservative in the upper tier of candidates. Stephanopoulos played Brownback's campaign robo-call to Iowans attacking Romney for his prior pro-choice stance.

Awk-ward.

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Posted at 5:51 PM
Posted to: Asia, Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, John McCain, Middle East, Mitt Romney, Pakistan, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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Bush, Karzai Upbeat On Afghanistan Despite Setbacks

President Bush today got an earful of two words he hasn't heard much lately: Thank you.

That effusive gratitude came courtesy of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whom Bush is hosting at Camp David.

"I'm here to once again thank you and the American people for all that you've done for Afghanistan," Karzai said during a joint press conference at the presidential compound. He went on to repeatedly thank Bush and the American public "for our liberation first and then for our stability and prosperity," adding that Afghanistan has "come a long way."

Karzai went on to say that since U.S. and NATO forces toppled the Taliban in 2001, the infant and child mortality rates had greatly improved. "Afghanistan would not have 85,000 children living today had you not been there to help us," he told the president.

Still, there are signs that progress in Afghanistan may be hitting a wall.

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Posted at 1:32 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Asia, Pakistan, President Bush
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July 27, 2007

Violence Resurfaces At Pakistan's Red Mosque

Just two weeks after more than 100 people died in clashes between the Pakistani government and Islamist militants at the Red Mosque in Islamabad, fresh violence has erupted at the re-opening of the site today. The London Times reports that hundreds of pro-Taliban students drove a government-appointed cleric from the mosque and resumed their protests of President Pervez Musharraf.

At least 11 people, mostly police, were killed when a suicide bomb went off at a restaurant near the clashes.

Police had fired tear gas at the violent protesters, who earlier had daubed red paint on the walls of the mosque to disrupt the new light yellow color that authorities used to repaint the building. The students angrily denounced Musharraf and called for the release of Maulana Abdul Aziz, the radical cleric who was arrested during the previous siege when he tried to escape in disguise.

AP has background on the conflict, and NPR's "Morning Edition" has an interview with a student protester who explains why she believes she made a mistake to leave the mosque the first time.

Posted at 10:31 AM
Posted to: Pakistan
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July 19, 2007

Pakistani Bank Denies Pearl Charges

Mariane Pearl, the widow of slain Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl, filed a lawsuit yesterday against the Habib Bank Limited of Karachi. The suit accuses the bank of offering financial services to al-Qaida and other terrorist groups.

"I am looking for the truth of what happened to Daniel, for our family, our friends, and the public record," Mariane Pearl wrote in a statement. "This process allows us to delve deeper into the investigation, and to bring accountability and punishment to those involved with his kidnapping, torture and murder."

Several other defendants are named in the suit, including captured al-Qaida leader Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.

The bank, in which the Pakistani government holds a 49-percent stake, denies the allegations. "As an institution, we have never been involved in supporting any terrorist organisation," one official told Reuters.

Pearl was kidnapped in Pakistan in January 2002. He was murdered soon after, and a video released by his kidnappers showed him being beheaded. Pakistan convicted four men of his murder in July 2002.

Posted at 3:09 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Pakistan, Terrorism
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July 17, 2007

Suicide Bomb Rocks Islamabad, Killing 13

A suicide bomber blew himself up outside a courthouse in the Pakistani capital today, where suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry was slated to speak at a rally.

Officials said 13 people were killed in the blast and another 40 or so were wounded, Reuters reports. The attack occurred before Chaudhry appeared on the scene, officials said.

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Posted at 2:43 PM
Posted to: Pakistan
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NIE: Al-Qaida Planning U.S. Attack

UPDATED.

Michael Chertoff's gut might not be too far off, after all.

According to the latest National Intelligence Estimate [PDF], al-Qaida presents a "persistent and evolving" threat to the United States, and will continue to do so "over the next three years" as the terrorist organization may be using its enhanced power in Iraq to plot an attack on U.S. soil.

In a presser coinciding with the release of declassified sections of the NIE this morning, Fran Townsend, assistant to the president for homeland security, said officials have "no credible information pointing to a specific imminent attack or the timing or execution of such an attack," and she added that the scale of any possible future attack was another major unknown. But the NIE ultimately concludes that "the United States currently is in a heightened threat environment," due in part to al-Qaida's recruitment and plotting efforts from bases in Iraq and Pakistan.

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Posted at 1:19 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Iraq, Pakistan
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July 06, 2007

Musharraf's Challenge At The Red Mosque

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf is practicing restraint. Analysts were prepared for a final, decisive assault on Islamabad's Red Mosque, where a small group of militants are still entrenched and resisting surrender. The standoff at the historic mosque has stretched into its third day, but no definitive siege has come.

The mosque siege is the focal point for the escalating tension between Pakistan's military government and radical clerics trying to push the capital -- and eventually the whole country -- toward sharia, or orthodox Islamic law. The seeds of the movement were sown in 2001, when Islamic parties rejected the president's stated support for U.S. anti-terrorism operations.

Musharraf is earning praise for withholding military force, letting slide a deadline of 11 a.m. Wednesday for all students to evacuate the mosque. The government also allowed frantic parents to approach the security barriers surrounding the mosque to try to persuade their children to leave.

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Posted at 3:30 PM
Posted to: Asia, Pakistan
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July 03, 2007

Nine Killed At Pakistani Mosque

Tensions flared between militant students and government forces at Pakistan's Red Mosque today, resulting in clashes that have killed at least nine people and injured many more.

Students at the mosque, some of them heavily armed and wearing gas masks, fought back against police trying to erect a barbed wire fence and sandbags to surround the mosque. The police fired on the crowd with tear gas, and a gun battle ensued. A man reportedly issued a call for suicide bombers over the mosque's sound system, saying, "They have attacked our mosque, the time for sacrifice has come."

A cease-fire was declared at sundown, but students are still occupying the mosque's library. An official said the government was "considering all options" to disperse the students.

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Posted at 1:35 PM
Posted to: Asia, Pakistan
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June 18, 2007

Rushdie Knighting Sparks Outcry

Pakistan and Iran are protesting vociferously after the announcement over the weekend that controversial novelist Salman Rushdie was to be knighted by Queen Elizabeth.

The lower house of the Pakistani parliament passed a resolution today condemning the knighthood, calling it an insult to Muslims worldwide. Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Sher Afgan Khan Niazi, who introduced the resolution, referred to Rushdie as a "blasphemer." Religious Affairs Minister Mohammed Ijaz ul-Haq was initially quoted as saying the knighthood would justify terror attacks against the West, but he later insisted his statement had been mistranslated.

In the city of Multan, protesters took to the streets and burned effigies of both Rushdie and the queen.

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Posted at 4:50 PM
Posted to: Asia, Iran, Middle East, Pakistan, U.K.
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May 15, 2007

Deadly Blast Hits Restaurant In Pakistan

Twenty-five people were killed and 32 were wounded today at popular restaurant in Peshawar, Pakistan. Police suspect the attack was a suicide bombing.

Customers were eating lunch at Marhaba restaurant when the explosion occurred. It is Pakistan's second attack in three weeks; riots also broke out in Karachi a few days ago.

Bloomberg News reports that the government blames the recent violence on rivalries between Sunni and Shiites, as well as Islamic militants protesting President Pervez Musharraf's support for U.S. actions against terrorism.

Posted at 7:48 AM
Posted to: Asia, Pakistan
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