February 26, 2008
Obama-McCain Squabble Injected Into Army Readiness Hearing
A controversial anecdote relayed by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in last week's Texas debate wended its way into a Senate Armed Forces hearing on Army readiness today.
Obama claimed that he'd "heard from an Army captain who was the head of a rifle platoon" that was sent to Afghanistan grossly undermanned and underequipped. "They were actually capturing Taliban weapons, because it was easier to get Taliban weapons than it was for them to get properly equipped by our current commander in chief," Obama said during Thursday night's debate.
Lindsey Graham, who lately has been stumping hard for Republican John McCain, relayed the story to Army Secretary Peter Geren and Army Chief of Staff William Casey during the hearing. "Has Sen. Obama talked to you or anyone in the department about this?" the South Carolina Republican asked.
"I have not discussed this with Sen. Obama," Geren replied, before handing the baton to Casey.
"As we looked into this, the best we could tell was this incident occurred back in 2003 and 2004," Casey said. "We talked to the brigade commander, looked at readiness reports. The brigade was manned over 100 percent and stayed 100 percent manned when they were there."
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February 19, 2008
Military Poll: Armed Forces -- And U.S. -- Highly Vulnerable
Is the military broken?
That is a question the Pentagon and Washington have been asking since late 2003, when then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld inadvertently signaled that the country was in for a "long, hard slog" in Iraq and Afghanistan. Soldiers themselves have been generally more positive about their mission than American civilians are. A new survey of military officers shows that while most maintain that the military is not broken, it cannot persevere under present conditions for long.
More than 3,400 active and retired officers -- 10 percent of whom served in Iraq, Afghanistan or both -- were surveyed by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for a New American Security [PDF], a centrist think tank.
Just 42 percent of respondents described the military as broken, compared with 56 percent who disagreed. But 60 percent said the military was weaker. Just 25 percent said the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan had helped the military grow stronger.
The results are largely in line with other surveys of military officers, such as those conducted by the Military Times publishing group. But as warnings from the military about its own health have intensified over the years, the strain placed on active-duty troops has only grown. Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced the new 15/12 deployment schedule last April, and there are no indications that those rotations will be eased this year, even as troop levels are brought back down to pre-surge levels. If anything, the Pentagon appears to be hinting that they will not.
When asked whether the war in Iraq had stretched the military "dangerously thin," a whopping 88 percent of respondents said yes. More gravely, the officers said, the military is currently ill-prepared to respond to other major conflicts. More than 80 percent said it was unreasonable to expect the military to engage in another war today. And on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning completely ready, the officers gave America's readiness to go to war with Iran a 4.5.
That may be because many see the current mission in Iraq as untenable: Nearly three-quarters said the goals set for the military by civilian leadership after the fall of Saddam Hussein were unreasonable.
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February 13, 2008
Hey, D.C.: It's Called 'Salt'
UPDATED.
District residents dread winter more than most Northeasterners -- not because it's particularly cold here, but because this city is comically helpless when confronted with flurries and ice. Now that the Beltway's inability to cope with treacherous winter weather has nearly felled America's secretary of defense, will the D.C. government get on this problem already?
That's right: The latest victim of D.C.'s saltless and unshoveled streets is former CIA Director and current SecDef Robert Gates, who slipped on an icy surface and fractured his shoulder last night. As many Beltway residents know, freezing rain quickly coated the region's streets and sidewalks yesterday evening, making walking and driving in this city more treacherous than usual. Maryland extended its polling hours in yesterday's Potomac Drainage Basin Primary because so many voters were taking their sweet time on the deadly roads.
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February 07, 2008
More Warnings Delivered On Afghanistan
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice denied that her surprise visit to Kandahar today was Washington's way of sticking it to NATO allies not doing their fair share in Afghanistan.
"It's just the rationale of being able to get outside of Kabul and see one of the areas that's been very active," Rice said before touching down, according to Reuters. "I don't think there's any message there to anyone."
Poignantly -- or not, if Rice's statement is taken at face value -- she and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband were touring Kandahar, a former Taliban stronghold in the country's south. Most trips by top foreign dignitaries are confined to the much safer capital city of Kabul. Kandahar remains dangerous, but it is also a prime example of the effectiveness of NATO forces in the fight against the Taliban and al-Qaida.
And in what has over the years become a ritual, Afghan President Hamid Karzai denied there were tensions between his government and its Western allies.
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February 06, 2008
What's The Point Of NATO, Anyway?
The U.S. and Britain have been fighting an uphill battle to win deeper commitments from NATO allies in Afghanistan. With recent independent reports warning that Afghanistan may be tipping back into failed statehood, and a critical upcoming vote in Canada that could determine that country's ongoing security contributions, NATO member nations are facing a kind of do-or-die moment.
The question at hand is: What is NATO's mission in the 21st century?
NATO was formed during the Cold War to fend off the Soviet threat. It was a mutual security pact, in which an attack on one was to be perceived as an attack on all.
After the 9/11 attacks, it became clear that al-Qaida was now the biggest threat facing the West. With little debate, NATO's mission was updated for the 21st century, and forces were sent to Afghanistan.
More than six years later, the success of NATO's fight against the Taliban and al-Qaida is in dispute. The war in Iraq sapped resources from Afghanistan, and more importantly sapped confidence in the United States' and Britain's leadership roles there. Nations have withdrawn forces over the last several years, and now the fighting -- and dying -- falls disproportionately on the U.S., Britain, the Netherlands and Canada.
Member nations privately blame the U.S. and Britain for being so preoccupied with the war in Iraq -- overwhelmingly unpopular among member nations -- that they delivered a seemingly half-hearted effort in Afghanistan. Washington and 10 Downing Street vehemently deny this is the case.
Without positing it directly, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is challenging member nations to remember the point of NATO and step up their contributions. "I do think the alliance is facing a real test here. And it is a test of the alliance's strength," she said at a press conference with British Foreign Secretary David Miliband today.
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January 31, 2008
Army Still Lags On Mental Health Help For Soldiers
The Army's suicide rate jumped 20 percent in 2007, an apparent indicator that the military's efforts to provide adequate mental health assistance to soldiers serving in Iraq and Afghanistan are still falling short.
According to internal reports, there were 89 confirmed suicides and 32 suspected suicides last year, which was also the deadliest year for U.S. troops in Iraq so far. AP reports that about 34 of the suicides took place in Iraq.
The number of suicide attempts and self-inflicted injuries also spiked dramatically. About 2,100 soldiers tried to kill or injure themselves last year, compared with about 350 in 2002, the Washington Post reports.
Military health care specialists have openly admitted that they were unprepared for the length and scope of the war in Iraq. The nearly five-year-long war entered a crunch phase last year, when DOD ordered longer deployment schedules with shorter breaks in between. Some soldiers are on their fourth tours in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003.
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January 28, 2008
Troops Watch: No Answers Until Summer
When Gen. David Petraeus returns to Washington in March, he will brief Defense Secretary Robert Gates on the progress of the U.S. troop drawdown. He'll be asked how units are faring in Iraq as more of them leave, and whether the targeted reduction -- from about 160,000 to the pre-surge 130,000 by this summer -- should progress as planned.
What he won't be asked is whether troop levels can be brought down further.
On the one hand, that isn't surprising. The answer is clearly no, although the Pentagon hasn't publicly confirmed that. Violence against U.S. troops is back down to 2005 levels -- which isn't great, but it beats the carnage of 2006 and 2007.
The main U.S. objective moving forward is to help Iraq rebuild its military and security forces. In an interview with the New York Times published Jan. 15, Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul Qadir forecast that Iraq's military forces would not be able to fend off internal and external threats independently until at least 2018.
That lines up with many U.S. commanders' assessments that significant assistance from their own country will be required in Iraq for at least a decade. Right now, the presidential candidates are bickering over whether the surge is working. A better debating point would be whether the U.S. has a responsibility to help Iraq become a fully sovereign nation or whether Washington can live with the very real possibility that all the gains made last year could be undone if American politicians oppose commanders' recommendations.
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January 25, 2008
The New New Way Forward In Iraq
To non-hyperpartisans who've been following developments in Iraq, it's been clear for some time that there will be a significant U.S. presence there going into the next decade, regardless of which party rules the White House next year. Though both sides called a de facto truce in Congress following the anticlimactic testimony of Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker in September, lawmakers appear to be getting their sea legs back on the war debate.
A skirmish is just now brewing over the White House's negotiations with the Iraqi government concerning the longer-term American posture there. "Status of forces" agreements are standard issue with allies; we have one with more than 120 countries, according to the State Department. Iraq, of course, is not just any country, and Democrats are nervous that the new agreement will lock the U.S. into a deeper, more long-term engagement than they'd like.
It's already playing on the campaign trail. In a debate in Las Vegas last week, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama agreed to pursue legislation requiring President Bush to request congressional approval for the Iraq status of forces agreement. "I think we have to do everything we can to prevent President Bush from binding the hands of the next president," Clinton said.
Presidents usually don't have to bring those agreements before Congress, but administration officials acknowledged to the Washington Post that they might have to submit the Iraq agreement for lawmakers' approval.
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January 17, 2008
Gates Goes To The Media
UPDATED.
Several news items are coming from an NPR interview with Defense Secretary Robert Gates broadcast this morning. Some highlights:
No more troops sent to Afghanistan. Gates announced earlier this week that he would ask President Bush for about 3,000 Marines to be sent to Afghanistan, after EU nations would not step up their NATO commitments, but he told NPR that there were no plans to send any more U.S. troops after the additional 3,000.
Iran does not pose an immediate threat. Gates called Iran a "challenge" but not a "direct military threat" to the United States.
Iraq is a "long-term" problem. Declining to make predictions on specific troop levels, Gates said he was heartened to see the Democratic presidential candidates demur on specific numbers as well and added that his goal is to leave the next administration with a sustainable policy on the war.
In other media interviews this morning, Gates addressed NATO countries' reaction to his comments that appeared in the Los Angeles Times yesterday about their ill-preparedness for fighting an insurgency in southern Afghanistan. The paper quotes him as saying, "I'm worried we have some military forces that don't know how to do counterinsurgency operations."
The U.S. ambassador to the Netherlands was summoned to the Dutch Defense Ministry yesterday to do cleanup for Gates. (Dutch, British and Canadian forces make up most of the European NATO presence in southern Afghanistan.) Roland Arnall offered a "clarification" for Gates' comments, noting that NATO forces aren't trained for counterinsurgency fighting and Gates hadn't intended to single out a specific country for criticism. Afterward, a Dutch official told a media outlet, "We assume this was a misunderstanding... This is not the Robert Gates we have come to know. It's also not the manner in which you treat each other when you have to cooperate with each other in the south of Afghanistan."
See the full NPR and LA Times stories for more.
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January 11, 2008
The Plot Thickens In The Strait Of Hormuz
UPDATED.
The strange confrontation between U.S. naval ships and Iranian speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz Sunday morning just got a bit more puzzling. Yesterday, as the U.S. Navy began to express doubts about some details of the clash shown in a Pentagon video of the incident, Iran released its own audio-visual version of the story on its English-language Press TV.
The Pentagon's video featured a brief encounter between the speedboats and Navy ships, followed by a radio transmission, purportedly from Iran's Revolutionary Guard, that ends with a gruff, heavily accented voice saying in English, "You will explode after (indecipherable) minutes." AP has a full transcript.
In contrast, Iran's footage features a brief and seemingly routine encounter between the speedboats and U.S. ships, with very different audio to go with it, according to the Los Angeles Times' transcription:
"Coalition warship 73, this is Iranian navy patrol boat 16. Come in. Over," an Iranian sailor aboard a speedboat says in English to a U.S. warship apparently in the distance. "Request present course and speed."
"This is coalition warship 73," a voice says over the radio in American English. "I am operating in international waters."
Joints Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen said today he could not determine whether the threats heard in the Pentagon video came directly from the Iranian boats, a point first made by a U.S. Navy spokeswoman yesterday. Still, Mullen said "the incident ought to remind us all just how real is the threat posed by Iran and just how ready we are to meet that threat if it comes to it."
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December 21, 2007
...But That Won't Mitigate A Really Bad Decade In Iraq
In his year-end press conference, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced that the Pentagon would not be issuing furlough notices "at this time." The branches of the military have had to lay off employees and cut corners while Congress and the White House tussle over continued war funding. The result has been piecemeal funding for the military, as anti-war lawmakers continue to pressure President Bush to accept a withdrawal deadline.
A June Center for Strategic and International Studies report [PDF] advised the Pentagon to stop requesting funding through war supplementals, which aren't included in the defense budget in order to make actual spending appear smaller than it really is. Total U.S. defense spending is only about 4 percent of GDP -- a very low war-time figure. The constantly cash-strapped military need not be so, the authors conclude, and the Pentagon should be asking for much more money with which to fight the Iraq war, the most pressing security problem facing the country.
Gates seemed to dispute the criticism that his department was lowballing Congress in order to provide political cover for the president. "I actually think we had a very thoughtful conversation with the House Armed Services Committee earlier in the year over what percent of GDP devoted to defense and securing the nation should be. I got the impression from both sides of the aisle that it ought to be about 4 percent," Gates said.
"I will be putting out a letter later this afternoon that basically acknowledges that we have to do some planning because we didn't get all the money" requested from Congress, he added.
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DOD: It Was A Pretty Good Year...
UPDATED
Thanks to the military's performance in Iraq, officials in the Department of Defense have genuine reason to clink glasses as the year winds down, though they know better than to go overboard in their celebrations.
In his year-end press briefing, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that the drawdown of five brigade combat teams (BCTs) by July 2008 was going as planned and should allow for yet more troop reductions. The first of the BCTs returned from Iraq earlier this month.
"My hope is the circumstances on the ground will continue to improve in a way that, when Gen. [David] Petraeus and the Joint Chiefs and Central Command do their analysis in March, will allow a continuation of the drawdown at roughly the same pace as the first half of the year," Gates said in the Pentagon briefing room.
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December 05, 2007
Gates Urges Patience But Sees Iraq's Stability 'Within Reach'
UPDATED.
On an unannounced visit to Iraq today, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he believed "that a secure, stable Iraq is within reach," but he cautioned that "much remains to be done" to bring full stability to the country.
Underscoring his pleas for patience, Gates' comments came as a car bomb exploded near a Shiite mosque in Baghdad. Reuters reports that 15 people were killed in that attack and eight more were killed in bombings in three other Iraqi cities today.
The defense secretary has remained cautious in his assessments of the progress being made in Iraq. His visit this week, the sixth he's made since taking over for Donald Rumsfeld a year ago, comes amid a recent spate of positive news coming out of the war-torn country. Pentagon officials said Gates is on the ground to assess whether reported declines in violence and cooperation from Iran in preventing arms imports are accurate, and whether those improvements can be sustained in the long term.
"Senior defense officials said the jury is still out on both fronts, and the Pentagon is being cautious not to declare victory yet in either case," AP reported this morning.
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November 05, 2007
Pakistan: When The Devil You Know Loses His Marbles
UPDATED.
For reasons we've outlined before, what's happening now in Pakistan is both extraordinary and utterly unsurprising. In the unlikely event you missed it, President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has suspended the constitution, declared emergency rule, canned most of the Supreme Court's judges, blacked out independent media and ordered troops to round up dissenters right and left.
Quite the busy weekend for the autocrat Washington warily calls friend and ally.
As many as 3,500 people have been arrested since Saturday, AP reports. Among them is Asma Jahangir of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, who has been placed under house arrest after years of railing against Musharraf's regime and escaping a couple of apparent government-sponsored assassination attempts. Writing in an e-mail to the Economist, Jahangir lamented that Musharraf had finally "lost his marbles."
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October 23, 2007
Bush Urges Action On Missile Defense Shield
Amid continued protests from Russia, President Bush today affirmed his support for a U.S. missile defense shield in Eastern Europe to protect American interests and allies from potential strikes from Iran, even as Defense Secretary Robert Gates suggested the U.S. might delay activating the shield.
"The need for missile defense in Europe is real and I believe it's urgent. Iran is pursuing the technology that could be used to produce nuclear weapons, and ballistic missiles of increasing range that could deliver them," Bush told students at the National Defense University in Washington. "Today, we have no way to defend Europe against the emerging Iranian threat, so we must deploy a missile defense system there that can."
Today's speech was the latest example of the increasingly forceful rhetoric from the Bush administration about the need for allies to stand with the United States against Iran and its nuclear program.
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Reports: State Dept. Lax In Monitoring Security Contractors
The increased scrutiny on security contractors in Iraq in the wake of last month's shooting involving Blackwater USA is shifting focus to the State Department, with two new reports offering fresh criticism of the agency's oversight of the private firms that help protect its personnel in war zones.
The New York Times reports this morning that an internal State Department evaluation "assails the department for poor coordination, communication, oversight and accountability involving armed security companies like Blackwater USA." Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice ordered the internal review of security practices following the Blackwater shooting, but the probe did not deal directly with that incident.
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October 16, 2007
Superpower Watch: Picking Sides, Choosing Teams
Once again, the Bush administration is reminded that while it would be preferable to have the world at its back as it attempts to stabilize the Middle East, it simply does not. Iran and Russia have sealed an agreement among the Caspian Sea nations that "under no circumstances will they allow [the use of their] territories by third countries to launch aggression or other military action against any of the member states." Doesn't take a genius to figure out which third country might top that list.
This declaration accomplishes several things, none of which bode well for Washington's push for Iran to come clean on its nuclear program.
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October 11, 2007
Could Marines Salvage Mission In Afghanistan?
The Los Angeles Times and the New York Times are reporting that the U.S. Marines Corps is requesting redeployment from Iraq to Afghanistan, where Taliban fighting has increased considerably. The reasons are not officially explicated, but there are a few obvious possibilities.
Now that Anbar province is relatively calm, the Marines sent there to wrest back control from Sunni insurgents seem mostly to be serving in an overwatch and training capacity, a role better suited for the Army. The LAT obtained an e-mail from one officer there, Lt. Col. Beau Higgins, noting the dramatic drop in attacks on U.S. forces. Higgins concluded, "It's critical that we stay here to continue to assist... but our role as fire fighters in the zone moving from hot spot to hot spot has truly gone."
The hallmarks of the USMC are rapid readiness and targeted strikes, not occupation. In 2004, for instance, the Marines were sent to calm the spiraling-out situation in Fallujah. The LAT reports that the 2nd Battalion, 5th Regiment returned from Anbar on Monday after a seven-month deployment without having lost one of their number; in an earlier deployment, the unit suffered 15 deaths.
The current military mission in Iraq is to replicate the successes of Anbar elsewhere. It's not clear what the mission now is in Afghanistan, mostly because it isn't talked about as much.
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October 10, 2007
The Armenian Genocide: When Purity Meets Pragmatism
Let's get this detail out of the way: The United States does not brook genocide. Maybe this country does not always go far enough to stop genocide where it occurs (Rwanda, Sudan), but it has not ignored, let alone denied, the mass extermination of an ethnic group since World War II. What the U.S. always does do in reaction to genocide is condemn the killing wherever it occurs.
So why the opposition to a nonbinding House resolution that compels the U.S. government to formally recognize the 1915-17 mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire as genocide -- something George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush did not do as commander in chief?
The answer, of course, is Turkey's resistance to the resolution. Almost anywhere else in the world, official government condemnation of genocide is an easy position for Washington to take. Not so with the Armenian genocide, because Turkey holds many cards, and the U.S. is in no position to strong-arm anyone it might still count as an ally in the war on terror.
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September 26, 2007
DOD Team To Investigate Security Contractors
Defense Secretary Robert Gates has ordered a Pentagon investigation of security contractors in Iraq after a deadly gunfight involving Blackwater employees raised questions about oversight of foreign contractors in Iraq.
AP reports that in a briefing today, Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said the initial round of answers to Gates' questions about the military's relationship with private contractors has "not been satisfactory" and that he is seeking a deeper probe into the matter.
Although he would not elaborate on the specifics of Gates' dissatisfaction with the investigation thus far, Morrell did say that a five-person team has already been sent to Iraq and "will talk to all the key players" there, including top U.S. commanders Gen. David Petraeus and Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno. The team is expected to report back to Gates by the end of the week.
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September 19, 2007
Webb Amendment Restricting Length Of Deployments Defeated
UPDATED.
A bill sponsored by Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., that would have put strict limits on the duration of troop deployments garnered 56 votes in a voice vote this afternoon, four short of the 60 needed to reach cloture.
The legislation, an amendment to the defense authorization bill, had provided a glimmer of hope for war opponents one day after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, citing Republican intransigence, nixed a bipartisan effort to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq.
The legislation would have given troops serving in Iraq at least as much time stateside as they spend on their combat tours. It was defeated in a cloture vote in July but had since resurfaced as the Democrats' last hope of changing course in Iraq -- and ducking the anger of anti-war voters.
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August 24, 2007
How To Force Bush To End The War
Here's some hopeful news for you anti-war protesters out there: By the middle of next year, it may be impossible to keep current operations going in Iraq.
Obviously, there really isn't anything hopeful or positive about this development. Officials inside and outside the Pentagon have been saying for at least a couple of years that the military was nearing its breaking point. According to Joint Chiefs Chairman Peter Pace, everything goes poof in 2008 unless forces in Iraq are reduced by almost half, the Los Angeles Times reports.
There's good reason to suspect that so long as U.S. forces continue to make some gains on the ground, as is currently the case, President Bush will continue to say that the U.S. is winning and should keep at it until Iraq is a semblance of a self-sustaining nation. Probably the only thing that could compel Bush to order a withdrawal is being told that unless he and the rest of the Bush clan are willing to take up arms and fight the war themselves, keeping it going is a physical impossibility.
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Saudi Embassy Protest Highlights Role In Iraq
UPDATED.
About a hundred Iraqi-Americans rallied this morning outside the Saudi Embassy -- and across the street from The Gate -- in protest of the kingdom's support for Sunni insurgents and terrorists in their home country. Bearing signs and banners that read "Saudi Are Behind 9/11 And Iraqi Suiside Bombing [sic]" and "Wahhabi Saudi Money Kill Our Children," the protesters traveled from across the country to send Saudi Arabia a message.
(Click here, here and here for photos of the protest.)
"The muftis of Saudi Arabia send fighters to kill the Iraqi people for their religion," said Abdul al-Mayahi of New Orleans. With protesters shouting "No bomb!" and "Down with Wahhabi!" in Arabic behind him, he continued, "We ask Saudi Arabia to act against those people who import terrorism, who come to Iraq. They need to live in peace."
But aren't the Saudis our allies in the war on terror, you ask?
Not quite.
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August 16, 2007
Could Rumsfeld's Resignation Have Made Difference In '06?
That's debatable. And here's why.
The revelation that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld actually resigned before the midterm elections, not after, has the chattering classes mulling over what might have been. But there's little to indicate that the outcome of the vote would have been much different.
Clarification on the timing issue does answer one lingering question: Did it really take something as earth-shifting as the GOP's loss of Congress for Bush to know Rumsfeld's time was over?
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July 30, 2007
Rice Announces Arms Deals Ahead Of Mideast Trip
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced a package of military "assistance agreements" with key U.S. allies in the Middle East as she and Defense Secretary Robert Gates headed to the region in a rare joint effort to drum up support among Arab states for the war in Iraq.
The new agreements are designed to "bolster forces of moderation and support a broader strategy to counter the negative influences of al-Qaeda, Hizballah, Syria, and Iran," Rice said in a statement this morning. They include a 10-year, $30 billion arms deal with Israel and a similar decade-long, $13 billion package for Egypt.
Rice also confirmed that during their trip, she and Gates planned to "initiate discussions with Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States" on a similar "proposed package of military technologies."
The plans to extend military aid to Arab allies were revealed over the weekend, earning an unusual show of support from Jerusalem and a predictable blast of criticism from Tehran.
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