February 28, 2008

Bye-Bye! The Last Gate Post Ever.

At least a few of our readers have figured it out already, but here goes: We've been winding things down at The Gate for the last couple of weeks, and today we formally say goodbye. Actually, we prefer John McLaughlin's way of doing things, so we say: Bye-bye!

It has truly been an honor and pleasure to write for and interact with you. (Even the Ron Paul fanatics who hate us because we don't cover him enough.)

The Gate would have turned a year old next month, but we're pretty proud of the more than 1,700 posts we've churned out. Most memorable for me -- Jane Roh -- was covering the U.S. attorney firings investigation, which culminated with the resignation of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales in August, and liveblogging the David Petraeus/Ryan Crocker hearings in September. It's been an intense and rewarding experience, and I'll always be grateful for those opportunities.

And then there's our campaign coverage, where I've gotten some witty and insightful assists from fellow Deputy Managing Editor Irene Tsikitas. The abundant and frequently silly MSM campaign coverage wore us out at times, but it's been a real honor covering what is likely the most pivotal presidential election of my lifetime. (Won't miss liveblogging those debates, though.)

You can tell by the accompanying photo that we had lots of fun along the way, too. Thanks to our online graphics team, Ryan Merrill and Reuben Dalke, for gamely producing myriad image requests.

As for me, I am leaving National Journal and moving on. I will still be participating in the Horserace '08 weekly radio roundtable on the campaigns, so look for me on air and online. To keep up with my whereabouts and reporting, visit me on Facebook. If you want to weigh in on the demise of The Gate, e-mail thegate[at]nationaljournal.com.

Thanks for reading along. I enjoyed writing for you.

-JANE ROH

Posted at 3:27 PM
Posted to: Attorney Scandal, Campaigns, Iraq, WH 2008
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February 27, 2008

Clinton & Obama: The Alamo Debate In Ohio

Media fixation on the March 4 primaries as do-or-die contests for Hillary Rodham Clinton guaranteed that last night's debate -- the final one before voters in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont go to the polls -- would get a lot of attention, but it was something of a surprise to see Clinton turn some of that attention back on the media.

Clinton called MSNBC's moderators out for going easy on Barack Obama, telling Brian Williams that she is used to always being tapped for the first question on any given topic. (Slate has a lengthy explanation of Clinton's comment about the SNL skit mocking the media for fawning over her rival.)

A question about the North American Free Trade Agreement sparked Clinton's comment last night at Cleveland State University. NAFTA is particularly delicate territory in bellwether Ohio, which has a high proportion of blue-collar workers concerned about jobs going overseas.

Continue reading "Clinton & Obama: The Alamo Debate In Ohio"

Posted at 12:07 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, WH 2008
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February 26, 2008

New Database Has Congressional Staffers' Numbers

Ever wonder how low-salaried Hill staffers survive in Washington, one of the more expensive cities on the East Coast?

The answer is supplements, supplements, supplements, in the form of "freelancing" campaign work for their bosses or acting as corporate consultants. A new Web site called LegiStorm has compiled the personal financial disclosure forms of staffers required to file them -- those with salaries higher than $111,675 in 2007. Per the site, about 15 percent of the 16,000 congressional aides fit the bill.

Continue reading "New Database Has Congressional Staffers' Numbers"

Posted at 3:07 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Congress
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Obama-McCain Squabble Injected Into Army Readiness Hearing

A controversial anecdote relayed by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in last week's Texas debate wended its way into a Senate Armed Forces hearing on Army readiness today.

Obama claimed that he'd "heard from an Army captain who was the head of a rifle platoon" that was sent to Afghanistan grossly undermanned and underequipped. "They were actually capturing Taliban weapons, because it was easier to get Taliban weapons than it was for them to get properly equipped by our current commander in chief," Obama said during Thursday night's debate.

Lindsey Graham, who lately has been stumping hard for Republican John McCain, relayed the story to Army Secretary Peter Geren and Army Chief of Staff William Casey during the hearing. "Has Sen. Obama talked to you or anyone in the department about this?" the South Carolina Republican asked.

"I have not discussed this with Sen. Obama," Geren replied, before handing the baton to Casey.

"As we looked into this, the best we could tell was this incident occurred back in 2003 and 2004," Casey said. "We talked to the brigade commander, looked at readiness reports. The brigade was manned over 100 percent and stayed 100 percent manned when they were there."

Continue reading "Obama-McCain Squabble Injected Into Army Readiness Hearing"

Posted at 12:26 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Democrats, Donald Rumsfeld, Iraq, John McCain, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Republicans, Robert Gates, Senate, WH 2008
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FEC Impasse Threatens To Undermine McCain & Obama

A fight over whether Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., can reject federal funds for his presidential campaign has thrown new attention on a stalemate hamstringing the Federal Election Commission and given unexpected attention to the role of McCain's possible election opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in that impasse.

The situation presents problems for both McCain, whom Democrats are accusing of defying the same campaign finance regulations he has championed, and Obama, who is seeing a hold he placed on an FEC nominee used in a bid to undermine his claims of working in a bipartisan manner.

McCain's problem, meanwhile, is generating calls for the White House or Senate Democrats to blink in their battle over FEC nominees.

"When you talk about the FEC, people's eyes glaze over.... But there will be increasing public pressure to do something as more and more people understand" the situation, said Melanie Sloan, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. Her group called Friday for Republicans to compromise to end the standoff.

Continue reading "FEC Impasse Threatens To Undermine McCain & Obama"

Posted at 9:14 AM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Congress, Democrats, John McCain, Republicans, Senate, WH 2008
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February 25, 2008

If You Needed Proof That This Primary Has Lasted Too Long...

... look no further than Time, where political reporters Mark Halperin and Joe Klein took a break from handicapping the presidential horse race last night to critique the red carpet fashions at the 80th Annual Academy Awards.

Seriously.

(In case you were wondering, Halperin finds Daniel Day-Lewis "wolfishly handsome" and Klein's a "sucker" for women like Tilda Swinton.)

Posted at 2:20 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Media, WH 2008
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February 22, 2008

How About *A Campaign* You Can Xerox

Did Hillary Rodham Clinton step under a ladder and over a black cat before announcing her presidential campaign last year? The hits -- in the bad sense -- just keep on coming at her.

She was booed last night after sniping that Barack Obama was pushing a message of "change you can Xerox" -- a reference to Camp Clinton's charges that Obama plagiarized Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick -- an Obama supporter. It was an Ouch moment for Clinton, and the audience did not like it.

Yesterday's CNN/Univision debate at the University of Texas (transcript) was tense at times and warmly collegial at times. Neither candidate tripped up too badly, but it was clear that Obama has greatly improved his debating skills. Clinton's been strong there from the beginning, so she's not being awarded any extra points.

The New York senator ended the evening on a high rhetorical note that won a standing ovation. Points for that, right? Nope. Many viewers read her lips and saw a concession speech.

Continue reading "How About *A Campaign* You Can Xerox"

Posted at 5:52 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Republicans, WH 2008
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Horserace '08: NYT Comes To McCain's Rescue. Really.

This week, Gate blogger Jane Roh and Government Executive senior editor Kellie Lunney discuss Hillary Rodham Clinton's Alamo moment, John McCain's anti-MSM moment and Barack Obama's momentum moment.

Listen to this week's show here. To find out where you can hear us in the U.S. and around the world, go here.

Posted at 5:32 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Horserace '08, WH 2008
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Renzi Indicted On Land Deal Charges

UPDATED.

Rep. Rick Renzi, R- Ariz., was indicted on federal charges of extortion, wire fraud and money laundering stemming from an investigation of land deals in his home state and an alleged payment in return for the lawmaker's influence, the U.S. attorney's office in Arizona said today.

The 26-page indictment [PDF] accused Renzi and two former business partners of conspiring to sell land that buyers could swap for federal property. The sale netted $4.5 million for one of the associates, the government said. The FBI conducted a raid in April on a business owned by Renzi's wife, leading to his decision to step down from the Intelligence, Natural Resources and Financial Services committees. Renzi previously announced he would not run for another term and would work to clear his name.

But stepping down next January isn't soon enough for the House Republican leadership. In a statement issued this afternoon, Minority Leader John Boehner urged Renzi to resign.

Continue reading "Renzi Indicted On Land Deal Charges"

Posted at 4:05 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Congress, Crime, FBI, House
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February 21, 2008

McCain Denies Improper Relationship With Female Lobbyist

John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, denied a New York Times report that hinted at a prior inappropriate relationship with a female lobbyist. The article, published online yesterday evening, quoted anonymous former aides who said they had grown concerned that McCain's relationship with Vicki Iseman had become romantic.

"If they were [concerned], they didn't communicate that to me," McCain said, speaking to reporters in Toledo, Ohio, with his wife, Cindy, at his side. "I've seen her on occasion, particularly in receptions and fundraisers and appearances before the [Commerce] Committee. I have many friends in Washington who represent various interests and those who don't, and I consider her a friend."

According to the Times report, Iseman's frequent appearances alongside McCain at events, in his office and on trips -- beginning in 1999 -- moved top advisers to intervene. Aides began "instructing staff members to block the woman's access, privately warning her away and repeatedly confronting him," according to the report.

Continue reading "McCain Denies Improper Relationship With Female Lobbyist"

Posted at 10:30 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, John McCain, Republicans, WH 2008
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February 20, 2008

If Speeches Were Horses, Clinton Would Be So Dead Right Now

Either the Obama campaign is too hopeful or too darn cynical for its own good.

And either the Clinton campaign is too arrogant or too tone-deaf for its own good.

Beware the punditocracy.

Whereas two weeks ago it was premature to call Ohio and Texas do-or-die states for Hillary Rodham Clinton, that is not the case today. In most other election years, Wisconsin and Hawaii would be two "so what?" states. Not this year, and not on the heels of three straight primary/caucus sweeps for Barack Obama.

Out of the 10 contests Obama's won since the Super Tuesday draw, Wisconsin's tilt toward Obama is the most significant. (NJ's James Barnes has a feature on this today.) Obama is eating into all of Clinton's constituents, including older white men, single white women and lower-income Democrats. Now the question everyone is asking is whether Camp Clinton can slow this train down.

Continue reading "If Speeches Were Horses, Clinton Would Be So Dead Right Now"

Posted at 5:40 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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February 19, 2008

Dems 2008: Beware The F-Word

As Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama head into yet another crucial primary test today, the latest round of national polling suggests the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is still too close to call either candidate the definitive front-runner.

Yesterday's Gallup Daily Tracking survey had Obama surging ahead to a 7-point advantage over Clinton among national Democratic voters, prompting today's Poll Track to declare Obama the undisputed leader in the race. But earlier this afternoon, Gallup released new numbers showing that the gap between the two has narrowed once again, putting Obama and Clinton in a statistical dead heat at 46 percent to 45 percent, respectively.

The 3-point dip for Obama and similar bump for Clinton in just a single day comes as the New York senator has stepped up her attacks on her colleague from Illinois. Pundits, pollsters and other close watchers of the race will be anxiously awaiting the results from Wisconsin tonight to see if Clinton's last-minute effort to paint Obama as a plagiarist will help erode the strong level of support he currently has there, particularly among the independents who are able to vote in the Badger State's primary.

See the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's politics blog for full coverage of today's Wisconsin primary.

Posted at 2:25 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, WH 2008
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February 15, 2008

Horserace '08: Who's Deciding This Election, Anyway?

This week, Gate blogger Jane Roh and Government Executive senior editor Kellie Lunney discuss Hillary Rodham Clinton's perception problem. Plus: those fickle superdelegates.

Listen to this week's show here. To find out where you can hear us in the U.S. and around the world, go here.

Posted at 3:47 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Horserace '08, WH 2008
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February 14, 2008

Most. Awkward. Endorsement. Ever.

"We always had good laughs together."

Those words, spoken by Mitt Romney about John McCain, might have seemed hard to believe just a few short weeks ago, when the two candidates were regularly exchanging harsh words both on the stump and on the airwaves. McCain's distaste for the man who endorsed him this afternoon was evident and amplified during the final month or so of the campaign. The acrimony was often attributed to Romney's wealth, the perception that he was a flip-flopper and the negative ads he aired against McCain and Mike Huckabee. But close watchers of the race know that McCain gave as well as he got in recent weeks, airing attack ads against Romney in Florida, Super Tuesday states and even in the Washington, D.C., metro area after Romney dropped out of the race.

"As all of you saw over the past year, things can get pretty rough in the thick of a campaign," Romney said as he announced his endorsement.

Despite the history of bad blood, however, those who heard Romney's exit speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference and saw McCain's smiley photo op with House Republicans earlier this week might not be too surprised at today's endorsement. Many prominent members of the GOP establishment -- talk-radio hosts and conservative commentators notwithstanding -- are making it known that they are throwing their full support behind McCain, if only because they prefer him to the alternative.

Continue reading "Most. Awkward. Endorsement. Ever."

Posted at 5:35 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Republicans, WH 2008
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Clinton Wins New Mexico Caucus By A Hair

Hillary Rodham Clinton has edged out Barack Obama in the New Mexico Democratic caucus, winning 73,105 votes to Obama's 71,396. But in terms of delegates, the rivals come out about even.

The final delegate awards haven't been meted out yet, but per an earlier Albuquerque Journal tally, which had Clinton with 68,659 votes to Obama's 67,538, the delegate count was 13 for Clinton and 12 for Obama.

Still, Clinton needed a good headline after days of glowing press granting the Illinois senator the glint of an aura of inevitability. A win for Clinton here was viewed as proof that she was running away with the Latino vote this cycle, while a win for Obama would have shored up his argument that he trumps the New York senator in red states and swing states.

In a painfully drawn out press conference, Brian Colon, chairman of the New Mexico Democratic Party, called the results "one of the slimmest margins of victory in" the state's history.

-JANE ROH

Posted at 5:22 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, WH 2008
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Lincoln Chafee Endorses Obama

Looks like the GOP has its very own Joe Lieberman: former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee.

Chafee, the only Republican to vote against giving President Bush the authority to invade Iraq, is bypassing former colleague John McCain in favor of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, who wasn't yet in the Senate for the 2002 vote but opposed the war as an Illinois lawmaker.

"I believe Senator Obama is the best candidate to restore American credibility, to restore our confidence to be moral and just, and to bring people together to solve the complex issues such as the economy, the environment and global stability," Chafee said in a conference call with reporters.

Chafee's endorsement comes as McCain stumps for votes in the Ocean State later today.

Chafee, always a popular lawmaker in his state, was swept out of office on an anti-GOP tide in 2006. His successor, Sheldon Whitehouse, campaigned on an argument for Democratic control of the Senate to challenge President Bush's authority. The Republican Party didn't exactly rush to Chafee's defense, and last year Chafee left the GOP to become an independent.

The Providence Journal reports that Chafee excoriates the leaders of both parties, particularly on the Iraq war vote, in a soon-to-be-released memoir.

Posted at 11:46 AM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, John McCain, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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February 13, 2008

Reps. Gilchrest & Wynn Lose Md. Primary Battles

Veteran Reps. Wayne Gilchrest (R) and Albert Wynn (D) of Maryland yesterday became the first members of Congress to lose their bids for renomination this year. The two relatively moderate lawmakers, both of whom were dogged by their positions on the Iraq war, each faced stiff opposition from the more extreme wings of their respective parties.

Gilchrest, who had bucked his party by voting against the Iraq war, lost to state Sen. Andy Harris, who had the backing of the fiscally conservative Club for Growth. Harris won, 44 percent to 32 percent, with 95 percent of precincts reporting as of early this morning. State Sen. E.J. Pipkin finished third in the GOP primary with 21 percent. In November, Harris will face Queen Anne's County State's Attorney Frank Kratovil in the Republican-leaning district on Maryland's Eastern Shore.

Meanwhile, in Maryland's majority-minority 4th District, attorney Donna Edwards was winning the Democratic nomination this morning, 60 percent to 35 percent, with 75 percent of precincts reporting. She had come close to ousting Wynn, who voted for the war in Iraq, in 2006.

Yesterday's results in Maryland, only the second state to hold its congressional primaries so far this year, suggest it's going to be another bumpy ride for incumbents as the war and economic issues continue to drive wedges within both major parties.

Continue reading "Reps. Gilchrest & Wynn Lose Md. Primary Battles"

Posted at 10:35 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, Congress, House
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February 12, 2008

WH '08: The Hurry-Up Primary Campaign

In homage to the great sportswriter (and Brookings Institution egghead) Gregg Easterbrook, we're dubbing today's spate of regional votes the Potomac Drainage Basin Primary. (It's no worse than any of the other nicknames we've seen.)

So in case you missed it, there's a primary vote happening today in Virginia, Maryland and right here in the District. Barack Obama's going to sweep those votes, and Hillary Rodham Clinton is going to keep losing contests until March 4's Ohio and Texas primaries, which she might also lose. Wow, those are a long way away. She's a goner.

And... scene.

So goes our cheeky ribbing of the media speculation-a-thon regarding today's primaries, which according to MSM bylaws a) must have a cutesy nickname (Chesapeake or Crab Cake?) and b) must be predictive of the nomination winner and, while we're at it, the winner of the November general election vote.

Continue reading "WH '08: The Hurry-Up Primary Campaign"

Posted at 6:10 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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February 08, 2008

Horserace '08: Holding Their Noses

This week, Gate blogger Jane Roh and Government Executive senior editor Kellie Lunney discuss Mitt Romney's exit, John McCain's emergence as the presumptive Republican nominee, and conservatives who don't heart "Huckananny."

Listen to this week's show here. To find out where you can hear us in the U.S. and around the world, go here.

Posted at 5:18 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Horserace '08, WH 2008
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McCain & Conservatives: It's Not Love, But It'll Do

Conservative activists still haven't forgiven John McCain for thumbing his nose at them in 2000, when he challenged their candidate, George W. Bush, for the Republican nomination. That's evident this week, as thousands of the conservative grassroots convene at the Omni Shoreham Hotel in Washington for the 2008 Conservative Political Action Conference.

Eleven months ago, as the 2008 presidential race was kicking into gear, there was zero support for McCain at CPAC. Though Mitt Romney emerged the CPAC straw poll winner, support for him at the time seemed to be borne of resignation. The conservative base was agonizing over its choices for the nominee, and at its dim hopes of hanging on to the White House in the wake of a tremendously unpopular Republican presidency. The ennui prompted Mike Huckabee to quip that the conference ought to be renamed, "Dude, where's my candidate?"

With no offense intended to Huckabee, who still remains in this contest, it's now pretty clear that, dude, your candidate is John McCain.

"I hope you will pardon my absence last year, and understand that I intended no personal insult to any of you. I was merely preoccupied with the business of trying to escape the distinction of preseason front-runner for the Republican nomination which, I'm sure some of you observed, I managed to do in fairly short order," McCain said at the conference yesterday, using humor as he often does to defuse an awkward situation.

It worked, and not just because the room was packed with the McCainiacs who were totally absent at last year's CPAC. Just hours before, Mitt Romney informed attendees he was dropping out of the race. Romney supporters were also on hand to hear from McCain, in an irony-laden, fresh-start introduction to the GOP's presumptive nominee.

Continue reading "McCain & Conservatives: It's Not Love, But It'll Do"

Posted at 5:07 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, WH 2008
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The Democrats' Nail-Biter Continues

Even though the candidates have moved on to the next round of contests -- caucuses in Nebraska, Louisiana and Washington tomorrow; Maine on Sunday; and the Potomac Primary next Tuesday -- the final Super Tuesday tally in the incredibly tight race between Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama remains unresolved. As delegate counts from various states continue to trickle in, the latest count by MSNBC has Obama with a razor-thin lead over Clinton, 861 to 855.

Meanwhile, the results of New Mexico's Feb. 5 caucus still hang in the balance. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, MSNBC (a NationalJournal.com partner) has Clinton leading, 49 percent to 48 percent. But with just over 1,100 votes separating them, the two senators are waiting for more than 17,000 provisional ballots to be counted before a winner is declared.

AP reports that it "could be a couple of days" before there's an answer; UPI quotes state party leaders who say it may take another week. Either way, the two are likely to split the delegates from that state down the middle.

Continue reading "The Democrats' Nail-Biter Continues"

Posted at 2:38 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, WH 2008
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February 07, 2008

McCain At CPAC: Joy, Boos, But Mostly Joy

Just a few hours after Mitt Romney announced he was pulling out of contention, a swarm of conservative activists were pushing and shoving their way into a hotel ballroom to catch a glimpse of the soon-to-be-officially-anointed Republican presidential nominee, John McCain. Much like the Arizona senator's revived White House hopes, the sight of hundreds of attendees brandishing "McCain for President" shirts, buttons and placards was a stunning turnaround.

The ballroom at the Omni Shoreham Hotel in Washington was filled beyond capacity. After making the mistake of wandering around to interview attendees, this Gater was nearly shut out, along with fellow reporters from AP, the Financial Times and Time magazine. Hotel staff weren't even cracking the doors for NPR's Mara Liasson and the New York Times' Maureen Dowd.

After mistaking this Gater for one of CPAC's College Republican organizers (humph!), Liasson was squeezed in, along with some of the rest of us -- including yours truly.

Continue reading "McCain At CPAC: Joy, Boos, But Mostly Joy"

Posted at 5:30 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Republicans, WH 2008
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Romney Ends White House Bid 'For Country, Party'

Speaking before a roomful of conservative activists in Washington, Mitt Romney drew his presidential campaign to a close.

"This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose," Romney said before an audience at the Conservative Political Action Conference. "If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and for our country."

Romney was announcing the suspension of his campaign -- a technical term that allows him to keep raising funds -- two days after a deeply disappointing performance on Super Tuesday. John McCain has won 13 of the states that have held primaries or caucuses so far, and Romney is close behind with 11. But McCain's wins in big-prize states like California on Tuesday gave him a nearly insurmountable delegate-count lead. With Mike Huckabee strongly defending his turf in the South, it became impossible on Wednesday morning to see how Romney could overtake the Arizona senator.

"I disagree with Senator McCain on a number of issues, as you know. But I agree with him on doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and executing Osama bin Laden and on eliminating al-Qaida and terror," Romney said. "If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator [Hillary Rodham] Clinton or [Barack] Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror."

The crowd let its disappointment be known, booing Romney's decision to bow out and pleading with him to hang on. But the politically tuned-in CPAC attendees know better than anyone that their guy has virtually no shot at the Republican nomination.

McCain skipped the conference last year because he had no support there. He's scheduled to speak at 3 p.m. today, and now that Romney's out, will ride in as the Republican nominee. We got a preview of how he'll be received, courtesy of talk-radio host Laura Ingraham.

Continue reading "Romney Ends White House Bid 'For Country, Party'"

Posted at 1:32 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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February 06, 2008

Super Tuesday Updates: New Mexico & Romney

We called it quits last night with two states outstanding. The results are in for one of the states, while the other is turning out to be a nail-biter.

In the New Mexico Democratic caucus, the Clinton-Obama contest is still too close to call. Fewer than 120 votes separated Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama after counting earlier today, so that contest will be decided by provisional ballots, the Albuquerque Journal reports. State Democratic Party workers will begin counting the more than 16,000 provisional ballots today.

Per the Journal, Clinton took most of the counties while Obama bested her in Santa Fe and Bernalillo counties. The strong Latino vote helped Clinton here, but it's too soon to tell if that will be enough.

New Mexico is a proportional delegate state, with 38 up for grabs. That means both will walk away with some of the booty. But a win here for Obama adds another swing state to his column, further undergirding his claim that he would perform better than Clinton in the general election. That's why both candidates lobbied so hard for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's endorsement. He declined to tap either until the nomination is decided, but he did watch the Super Bowl with Bill Clinton. (Of course, President Clinton used to be Richardson's boss.)

Continue reading "Super Tuesday Updates: New Mexico & Romney"

Posted at 2:24 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, WH 2008
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The Economy: Not So Super

The excitement surrounding yesterday's unprecedented Super Tuesday nominating contests obscured the latest and perhaps most damning news to come out on the troubled economy: Activity in the crucial service sector slowed for the first time in nearly five years last month.

The report from the Institute of Supply Management shows a significant decline in non-manufacturing activity (previously the "firmest pillar of economic expansion") in January. Those numbers, coupled with last week's news that jobs were declining, are heightening concerns that the economy is not only headed for a recession, but is already in one.

"Recession is here," the headline on CNNMoney.com read yesterday. The report quotes several economists who said the ISM report was the tipping point for them.

Continue reading "The Economy: Not So Super"

Posted at 12:20 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Democrats, Economy, Hillary Rodham Clinton, House, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Senate, WH 2008
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Wednesday Morning Quarterbacking

So many numbers, so little sleep....

National Journal's Ronald Brownstein and James A. Barnes are up this morning with first reactions to the Super Tuesday results.

On the Republican side, Barnes parses John McCain's victory across a broad geographic and ideological spectrum of voters and notes that GOP nominating rules in the biggest states are working in the Arizona senator's favor.

Meanwhile, Brownstein pores over the exit polls and concludes that the persistent demographic divides separating Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama could keep the Democratic race hanging in the balance well into spring.

Posted at 9:50 AM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Republicans, WH 2008
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Big Fat Super Tuesday: It's Still Not Over!

1:58. Obama's declared the "winner winner" in Missouri. He and Clinton are running about even in New Mexico.

In the Republican field, it's near impossible to see how anyone stops McCain. A comeback for the history books, surely. It will be interesting to see how he's received Thursday at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, which he skipped last year because there was so much hostility toward him. The Gate will be there.

Meanwhile, Romney is meeting with his top advisers tomorrow to discuss his future, the Boston Globe reports. He's been accusing Huckabee of splitting the evangelical vote, but Huckabee's supporters are more likely to go to McCain should their guy bail out. The South was in a pretty anti-Romney mood today, and there's reason to believe this has something to do with religion.

Knowingly or not, Huckabee has used the religion wedge to his advantage. Some would say knowingly, although he hasn't really been called out on it.

We're going to call it a night. Check back tomorrow later today for those lingering New Mexico and Alaska results.

1:26. MSNBC's Chuck Todd did the math, and he projects Obama and Clinton will be about tied in delegate counts. They will have to soldier on in the upcoming contests: Louisiana (2/9), Washington (2/9), Maine (2/10), D.C. (2/12), Maryland (2/12), Virginia (2/12) and probably beyond.

Continue reading "Big Fat Super Tuesday: It's Still Not Over!"

Posted at 1:59 AM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, George H.W. Bush, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Mike Gravel, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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February 05, 2008

First Winner Of The Day!

UPDATED.

Mike Huckabee became Super Tuesday's first winner after cleaning up West Virginia's 18 delegates in that state's close GOP nominating convention. The sniping has already started over the legitimacy of Huckabee's win.

Mitt Romney's campaign reacted to his loss by lashing out at main rival John McCain, accusing him of colluding with Huckabee at the convention.

"Unfortunately, this is what Senator McCain's inside Washington ways look like: he cut a backroom deal with the tax-and-spend candidate he thought could best stop Governor Romney's campaign of conservative change," said campaign manager Beth Myers.

Continue reading "First Winner Of The Day!"

Posted at 4:31 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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¡Martes Gigante!

Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are dueling for the coveted Latino vote in California, Arizona, Illinois and New Jersey. Though Clinton was viewed as having cornered this demographic, Obama's late-breaking sweep of support following his South Carolina primary victory could net him a significant portion of the Latino vote.

Carin Zissis of the New York-based Americas Society/Council of the Americas breaks down where these voters might go today.

Continue reading "¡Martes Gigante!"

Posted at 4:05 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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It's Not Super Tuesday Everywhere

Note to voters: Make sure your state is one of the 24 holding nominating contests today before you head out to the polls.

Milwaukee resident Ethel Goodwin set her alarm this morning so she would be near the front of the line at her local polling station. When she arrived at 6:30 a.m., there were several other people already waiting for polls to open.

One problem: Wisconsin's primary contests are on Feb. 19.

"We were listening to the news and they were saying that Super Tuesday, and all the state, I figured that included Wisconsin," said Goodwin. "Probably, I just misunderstood."

(Hat tip: WTMJ news radio)

UPDATE: In all fairness to Ms. Goodwin, she's apparently not alone. (Hat tip: Wonkette)

Posted at 2:44 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, WH 2008
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Super Tuesday: While You're Waiting...

The day of reckoning is finally upon us: Voters in 24 states have begun heading to the polls to cast their votes in the busiest day yet of this frenzied presidential primary season. But with many of the most hotly contested battlegrounds located on the West Coast, it's going to be many hours (perhaps even days?) before the final results are in.

In the meantime, Ad Spotlight has compiled a handy list of the broadcast ads the six remaining candidates are airing in Super Tuesday states. NationalJournal.com's Kevin Friedl also compares the ad strategies of the two most cash-rich candidates in the race: Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

If you're keeping score at home tonight, NationalJournal.com has a detailed chart of Super Tuesday states, including the types of contests they're holding and how many delegates are at stake in each race. Today's Poll Track, meanwhile, handicaps the contenders in each race based mostly on national polls, which, as Mark Blumenthal reminds us, are far from infallible.

Check back tomorrow morning for results from the Democratic and Republican contests, plus analysis by NJ's James Barnes and Ronald Brownstein. The Gate and Hotline's On Call will be following the results after the first polls close this evening.

Posted at 2:12 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, WH 2008
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February 04, 2008

WH '08: There Goes That Theory

We've been quietly wondering whether John McCain's sudden ascendancy would worry Democrats supporting Barack Obama enough to make them rethink their vote. Hillary Rodham Clinton has been cast as the "experience" candidate, and the veracity of that claim aside, she has been viewed as a safer bet to win against a strong war-on-terror candidate like McCain in the general election.

Remember Obama's victory speech after he won the South Carolina Democratic primary, when he and a stadium full of supporters asked America not to tell them change was impossible? Well, the "believe" mantra you've been seeing on all those campaign signs and hearing in so many of Obama's speeches appears to be taking hold, less than 24 hours before Democratic voters in 22 states go to the polls.

Several new surveys show Obama outperforming Clinton in national matchups against McCain. In one poll showing the two Democrats both beating McCain, Obama does it by an 8-point margin, compared to a 3-point margin for Clinton. Others show Clinton losing to McCain and McCain losing to Obama.

(Mitt Romney, by the way, gets bludgeoned by both.)

It looks as if Democratic voters tomorrow won't have to make a painful choice between following their heads and following their hearts after all.

Continue reading "WH '08: There Goes That Theory"

Posted at 6:17 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, WH 2008
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February 01, 2008

Horserace '08: Bracing For Super Tuesday

This week, Gate blogger Jane Roh and Government Executive senior editor Kellie Lunney discuss the Barack vs. Hillary numbers game, the painful choice for base conservatives if John McCain emerges the winner, and why Mitt Romney's primary-campaign strategy could be trouble in the general election.

Listen to this week's show here. To find out where you can hear us in the U.S. and around the world, go here.

Posted at 4:19 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Horserace '08, WH 2008
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January 30, 2008

McCain Wins Giuliani Nod, Puts Entire Field On Notice

UPDATED.

"I made it clear at different times in this campaign that if I had not decided to run -- I believe I even said it at a debate -- the only person in the country that I clearly would've supported for the president of the United States would be John McCain. And that came from the heart.

"Today, I'm officially announcing my withdrawal as a candidate for president of the United States."

And with that, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani closed the chapter on his own presidential aspirations and opened a new one in this rollercoaster ride of an election cycle. McCain's victory in the Florida Republican primary yesterday was already validation that he's now the GOP front-runner. Giuliani's decision to ally himself with McCain today sent a strong message to the challengers in both fields: This election will once again center on security and defense.

"It will be a clear choice this November, and I believe that my life has prepared me. A life of service, and a life of dedication to lead this nation and the transcendent challenge of the 21st century: the great threat and evil of radical Islam," McCain said, accepting Giuliani's endorsement.

The person who should fear McCain's ascendancy most immediately is Mitt Romney, who's been pushed out of the headlines as the nation digests McCain's comeback, unthinkable just months ago. McCain not only has a delegates-count advantage going into next week's Super Tuesday contests, he also has a wide margin over Romney in national polling, which at this late date can be considered a fairly reliable indicator of how the big-prize states will vote.

Continue reading "McCain Wins Giuliani Nod, Puts Entire Field On Notice"

Posted at 7:04 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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Virginia Rep. Davis Rules Out Re-Election

Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee and a strong proponent of D.C. voting rights, this afternoon became the third Republican in two days to announce he will not return to the House next year.

"After much soul-searching and discussion with those closest to me, I have decided the time is right to take a sabbatical from public life," he said in a statement. "I will serve out the remainder of my term, and plan to remain an active contributor to Republican causes, but will not run for office in 2008."

His announcement, coupled with yesterday's retirement announcement from Rep. Ron Lewis, R-Ky., and Missouri Rep. Kenny Hulshof's decision to run for governor, now mean there are 24 Republicans and 29 House members overall who are either retiring or running for higher office this year.

CongressDaily has a full list (subscription) of departing lawmakers and will have more details on Davis' announcement later this afternoon.

Posted at 2:37 PM
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Edwards Ends WH Bid But Keeps Anti-Poverty Message Alive

UPDATED.

John Edwards ended his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination this afternoon during a stop in New Orleans, where he first announced his entrance into the race one year ago in order to punctuate the primary theme of his campaign: combating poverty.

"It's time for me to step aside, so that history can blaze its path," he told the assembled crowd against a backdrop of newly built homes in the hurricane-ravaged Ninth Ward. "We do not know who will take the final steps to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but what we do know is our Democratic Party will make history."

Edwards, surrounded by his wife, Elizabeth, and three children, said he had spoken with the two remaining Democrats in the race -- Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama -- who both pledged to him that they'd make "ending poverty central to their campaign" and, if elected, their presidency. However, he did not formally endorse either candidate.

"America's hour of transformation is upon us," Edwards told the crowd, returning to the message of "change" that has dominated the Democratic primary race. He evoked numerous images of the kinds of struggling Americans -- the homeless, the hungry, the uninsured, neglected veterans and working people -- that he has pledged to fight for, and he promised to continue that fight even as he exits the White House race. "It's hard to speak out for change when you feel like your voice isn't being heard," but "the Democratic Party hears you," he said.

"It's time for all of us together to make the two Americas one," he concluded, echoing the theme of equality that he first laid out as a presidential candidate in the 2004 race.

Edwards thanked his supporters, volunteers and campaign staffers after saying he was "suspending" his campaign. That terminology may generate some head-scratching, but AP reports that, according to his advisers, it "was simply legal terminology so that he can continue to receive federal matching funds for his campaign donations."

Continue reading "Edwards Ends WH Bid But Keeps Anti-Poverty Message Alive"

Posted at 2:05 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Democrats, John Edwards, WH 2008
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January 29, 2008

McCain Edges Romney In Florida; Giuliani Bowing Out

UPDATED.

John McCain edged out rival Mitt Romney to win the Republican primary in Florida, sealing his comeback status as the front-runner in this race.

"Our victory might not have reached landslide proportions, but it is sweet nonetheless," McCain said, as supporters cheered an increasingly familiar refrain, "Mac is back! Mac is back!"

"To everyone who in good times and bad devoted much time and energy and hope to keeping our candidacy competitive: Thank you from the bottom of my heart," McCain said, in reference to his astonishing revival after being left for dead last summer when his campaign operation imploded.

These numbers will be confirmed tomorrow, but McCain bested Romney by about 36 percent to 31 percent. Rudy Giuliani won 15 percent of the registered-Republicans-only vote, followed by Mike Huckabee 2 points behind. The exit polling data show some surprising alliances. Latinos overwhelmingly went to McCain, even though Romney was up with Spanish-language ads in Florida nearly a year ago. McCain also bested Romney among voters middle-aged and older. The two fared about equally among middle-income voters, with Romney gaining an edge in the $100,000-$199,990 bracket. But McCain won over Republicans earning $200,000 or more, 44 percent to 30 percent.

With Super Tuesday just a week away, McCain heads into that 24-state competition the delegate-count winner, with Romney his chief rival and Huckabee the wild card.

Meanwhile, without actually saying he was dropping out, Giuliani all but drew his campaign to a close in his concession speech tonight. He said he was "proud" of his campaign for keeping things positive -- he never really went after anyone except Romney and Ron Paul -- and nodded to his improbable candidacy and improbable strategy.

Continue reading "McCain Edges Romney In Florida; Giuliani Bowing Out"

Posted at 11:17 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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Who Let The Dogs Out? Who? Who Who?

When he's not freestyle rapping, Mitt Romney also enjoys running for president of the United States. Tonight, we will find out if the Republican voters of Florida will crown him the candidate to beat going into next Tuesday, or if his chief rival in this state, John McCain, definitively becomes 2008's Comeback Kid.

We kid the former Massachusetts governor, of course, who is poised to win the Florida primary today and put to rest doubts that he can sweep enough Super Tuesday delegates to carry him to the nomination. He shot for and missed winning the nod in the supposedly crucial (but probably not so much anymore) states of Iowa and New Hampshire, which prompted a bunch of fortune tellers to write his WH '08 obit. But Romney doesn't have the best ground game and organization in this field for nothing. Polls put [PDF] him in a dead heat for first with McCain, which could effectively make Feb. 5 a two-man contest.

That is, if potential spoiler Rudy Giuliani doesn't beat expectations. The former NYC mayor is promising he will deliver in spite of the polling numbers. He's crossing his fingers that a lot of the absentee balloting went his way, though it's not clear that would make a difference, our colleagues at Pollster.com say.

Continue reading "Who Let The Dogs Out? Who? Who Who?"

Posted at 5:43 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Democrats, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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Points For Trying

As Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius noted in her Democratic response to the State of the Union address last night, states and municipalities are experimenting with health care reforms in the absence of what many agree is a badly needed overhaul on the federal level. One of the leaders in this movement is California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who negotiated last year with Democratic state lawmakers over a universal health insurance program for his state.

The $14.9-billion proposal was eagerly anticipated by other states eyeing similar measures. Congressional lawmakers were also keen to learn from California's experience. They'll all have to wait a little longer, though, because yesterday the state Senate rejected Schwarzenegger's plan.

Per the Los Angeles Times: "Senators said it was too risky a financial commitment when California faces a $14.5-billion budget gap that could force them to cut existing healthcare programs. Schwarzenegger has proposed $2.9 billion in healthcare cuts over the next 18 months."

Continue reading "Points For Trying"

Posted at 2:32 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Health, Mitt Romney, Republicans, WH 2008
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U.S. Home Foreclosures Up 75 Percent In 2007

In another troubling sign of crisis in the U.S. housing market, the number of home foreclosures rose a staggering 75 percent to a total of more than 2.2 million filings in 2007, according to new data from RealtyTrac. The online seller of foreclosure properties reports that filings were up 97 percent in December compared to December 2006.

In an interview with MarketWatch, RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga concluded that the "primary driver" of the surge in foreclosures was "the high delinquency rates of these adjustable-rate subprime mortgages," and he warned that "we have one more massive wave of these loans that will adjust or reset... in late May or early June." Listen to the interview here and view RealtyTrac's findings here.

CNNMoney.com's Les Christie predicts that the "rapid rise" in foreclosure risk "could last for years."

According to Forbes' breakdown of the data, many of the hardest-hit counties are in key electoral battleground states, including some that have already held presidential nominating contests (Nevada, Michigan) and some that will weigh in next week on Super Tuesday (California, Arizona, Colorado). With overall economic concerns already a top priority for voters, the housing crisis could shape up to be one of the key issues in this year's presidential election.

Continue reading "U.S. Home Foreclosures Up 75 Percent In 2007"

Posted at 10:48 AM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Democrats, Economy, Hillary Rodham Clinton, President Bush, WH 2008
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January 28, 2008

Liveblogging President Bush's Final State Of The Union Address

End note. SOTU affairs are always a laundry list, and few expect them to deliver poetry. This year's address (full text) did lack the rhetorical punch of previous years, particularly Bush's first SOTU address following 9/11, which received very high marks.

If there is one character trait that describes this president, it is determination-bordering-on-
stubbornness. He has largely ignored polls and the punditry, and he only changed tacks in Iraq when the calls for a change in course permeated his own administration. Plenty of Americans didn't tune in to this speech tonight, on the assumption Bush is a lame duck. That is probably not the case, at least as far as the legislature is concerned.

With his veto threat and the executive order coming Tuesday, Bush is asserting himself in a dramatic way. The rate of federal spending under Bush's watch is triple that of the Clinton administration. That Bush is positioning himself to put a foot down on pork-barrel spending was pretty unexpected in his final year in office. We'll be watching to see how it pans out.

As for Bush's various claims in tonight's speech, NPR's reporters have been posting fact checks all evening. See their corrections on the tax cuts, FISA, Iraq and entitlement reform. Good night.

10:27. A somewhat unexpected criticism of the president here: "In spite of the attempts to convince us that we are divided as a people, a new American majority has come together. We are tired of leaders who rather than asking what we can do for our country, ask nothing of us at all.

"We are Americans sharing a belief in something greater than ourselves, a nation coming together to meet challenges and find solutions; to share sacrifices and share prosperity; and focus, once again, not only on the individual good but on the common good."

It should come as little surprise that Sebelius has endorsed Barack Obama. This speech reflects Democrats' palpable eagerness to move the country well away from the Bush era.

Continue reading "Liveblogging President Bush's Final State Of The Union Address"

Posted at 10:47 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Climate Change, Congress, Democrats, Economy, Hillary Rodham Clinton, House, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Senate, Taxes, Terrorism, Trade, Veterans, WH 2008
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Troops Watch: No Answers Until Summer

When Gen. David Petraeus returns to Washington in March, he will brief Defense Secretary Robert Gates on the progress of the U.S. troop drawdown. He'll be asked how units are faring in Iraq as more of them leave, and whether the targeted reduction -- from about 160,000 to the pre-surge 130,000 by this summer -- should progress as planned.

What he won't be asked is whether troop levels can be brought down further.

On the one hand, that isn't surprising. The answer is clearly no, although the Pentagon hasn't publicly confirmed that. Violence against U.S. troops is back down to 2005 levels -- which isn't great, but it beats the carnage of 2006 and 2007.

The main U.S. objective moving forward is to help Iraq rebuild its military and security forces. In an interview with the New York Times published Jan. 15, Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul Qadir forecast that Iraq's military forces would not be able to fend off internal and external threats independently until at least 2018.

That lines up with many U.S. commanders' assessments that significant assistance from their own country will be required in Iraq for at least a decade. Right now, the presidential candidates are bickering over whether the surge is working. A better debating point would be whether the U.S. has a responsibility to help Iraq become a fully sovereign nation or whether Washington can live with the very real possibility that all the gains made last year could be undone if American politicians oppose commanders' recommendations.

Continue reading "Troops Watch: No Answers Until Summer"

Posted at 6:18 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, David Petraeus, Democrats, Donald Rumsfeld, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Republicans, Robert Gates, WH 2008
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Gater On The Air, Globally

Your dutiful blogger, Jane Roh, and Government Executive senior editor Kellie Lunney will be participating in a weekly Campaigns '08 radio roundtable moderated by Simon Marks (of "NewsHour With Jim Lehrer"). In the U.S., you can hear us on Metro Networks affiliates and on Sirius Satellite Radio's WRN. Overseas, we can be heard on stations including Radio Deutsche Welle, Austrian Broadcasting, Vatican Radio, Australian Independent Radio News and Radio New Zealand.

Listen to this week's show here.

Posted at 12:01 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Horserace '08, WH 2008
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Congress: WH Race Threatens To Hamstring Dem Majority

With Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois likely fighting for the Democratic presidential nomination well into February, and one of them virtually assured of being the nominee, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid might be doomed to spend 2008 much the same way he spent 2007 -- hamstrung by a slim majority.

With lawmakers eager to sidestep controversial votes and spend as much time as possible campaigning for their own re-elections, the track record for legislative accomplishments is already unremarkable.

This year, with Democrats holding a razor-thin majority and three senators still in the thick of the presidential race -- Clinton, Obama and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. -- some aides foresee an even lighter-than-usual workload.

Continue reading "Congress: WH Race Threatens To Hamstring Dem Majority"

Posted at 10:30 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, Congress, Democrats, Senate, WH 2008
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January 26, 2008

Obama Pulls Off Decisive S.C. Win, Plus One Heck Of A Speech

UPDATED.

When Barack Obama announced his candidacy for the White House in February last year, he knew he was a mere mortal going up against a dragon. Hillary Rodham Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, comprised the head of the Democratic Party establishment. The race for the nomination was Hillary's for the taking, the chattering classes believed, because the Clinton machine was simply too entrenched, too monied, too formidable.

Tonight, Barack Obama drove a dagger into the heart of that dragon.

In a rousing, to-the-rafters speech reminiscent of a religious revival, the one-term, 46-year-old senator from Illinois delivered a damning indictment of the very thesis of Clinton's candidacy.

"We're looking to fundamentally change the status quo in Washington. We are looking for more than a change in the party in the White House," Obama told a packed auditorium of supporters. "This is a status quo that extends beyond any particular party. We are not going to let them stand in our way any more."

Continue reading "Obama Pulls Off Decisive S.C. Win, Plus One Heck Of A Speech"

Posted at 10:36 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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Clinton Wins W&L Mock Convention Nod

In a very close electoral battle that wasn't decided until the New York delegation cast the last vote, Washington and Lee students predicted at their centennial mock convention that Hillary Rodham Clinton would be the Democratic Party's 2008 nominee for president.

Having only missed a prediction once since 1948, this year's preview is especially risky because most political analysts are still hesitant to forecast who will win the fight between Clinton and Barack Obama.

In the end, Clinton received 2,117 votes, with Obama in a close second at 1,642. John Edwards received 288 votes, and former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel got 2 delegates thanks to his native Alaska.

Continue reading "Clinton Wins W&L Mock Convention Nod"

Posted at 1:11 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, WH 2008
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January 25, 2008

WH '08: Everyone's Being So Nice! (For Now.)

Hey, you guys! It's so super to see you! No matter what happens in Florida on Tuesday, let's promise to always be friends. I am so serious!!!

Ahem.

The Republican candidates debate last night was mind-bogglingly polite -- proof that in politics, anything really is possible. Gone were the condescending swipes at Mitt Romney that dominated the previous GOP debate earlier this month. Romney, in kind, held his fire, and so for once we had a forum that was dominated by issues.

We heard some interesting ideas from the candidates on how to jump-start the economy. Mike Huckabee, for instance, made a pretty good point when he said that the rebate checks millions of Americans will receive as part of a congressional stimulus package will likely go to goods made elsewhere, which does nothing to address the dying manufacturing sector here at home.

"And frankly, in talking about the stimulus package, one of the concerns that I have is that we'll probably end up borrowing this $150 billion from the Chinese. And when we get those rebate checks, most people are going to go out and buy stuff that's been imported from China. I have to wonder whose economy is going to be stimulated the most by the package," the former Arkansas governor said.

You won't hear talk like that on the Democratic side, where it's anathema to question the soundness of cutting those checks even though economists doubt they are actually stimulative.

Yesterday's debate also saw the return of the Iraq war as a campaign issue. Romney in particular foreshadowed the general-election argument to come on this topic: "We cannot turn Iraq over to al-Qaida and have al-Qaida have a safe haven from which they could recruit people to carry out bombings, to attack this country and our friends around the world. It's unthinkable. And that's why I will not walk away from Iraq until we have been successful and finish that job."

Where there were policy differences, the candidates managed to lay out their arguments without elbowing the others along the way. We saw what looked to be genuine camaraderie between Romney and Rudy Giuliani on the heels of a New York Times article on why Romney is the most disliked candidate in this field. And speaking of Giuliani, his chuckling and snorting punctuated nearly all the lighter moments of the 90-minute debate. (Where was that Giuliani when he was mayor of New York??)

Continue reading "WH '08: Everyone's Being So Nice! (For Now.)"

Posted at 5:51 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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The New New Way Forward In Iraq

To non-hyperpartisans who've been following developments in Iraq, it's been clear for some time that there will be a significant U.S. presence there going into the next decade, regardless of which party rules the White House next year. Though both sides called a de facto truce in Congress following the anticlimactic testimony of Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker in September, lawmakers appear to be getting their sea legs back on the war debate.

A skirmish is just now brewing over the White House's negotiations with the Iraqi government concerning the longer-term American posture there. "Status of forces" agreements are standard issue with allies; we have one with more than 120 countries, according to the State Department. Iraq, of course, is not just any country, and Democrats are nervous that the new agreement will lock the U.S. into a deeper, more long-term engagement than they'd like.

It's already playing on the campaign trail. In a debate in Las Vegas last week, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama agreed to pursue legislation requiring President Bush to request congressional approval for the Iraq status of forces agreement. "I think we have to do everything we can to prevent President Bush from binding the hands of the next president," Clinton said.

Presidents usually don't have to bring those agreements before Congress, but administration officials acknowledged to the Washington Post that they might have to submit the Iraq agreement for lawmakers' approval.

Continue reading "The New New Way Forward In Iraq"

Posted at 1:08 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Constitution, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Robert Gates, Terrorism, WH 2008
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January 24, 2008

Plain Dealer: Kucinich To Exit Presidential Race

UPDATED.

Presidential hopeful Dennis Kucinich is bowing out of the Democratic primary race, his hometown paper is reporting. According to Openers, the political blog of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Kucinich will explain his "transition" out of the race at a news conference around noon tomorrow in Cleveland. He promises a "rather lengthy statement" on his reasons for dropping out.

In an exclusive interview, Kucinich also said he would not be endorsing one of his Democratic rivals in the primary race, perhaps a surprising decision considering that he had urged supporters to back Barack Obama as a second choice in the Iowa caucuses. See the Plain Dealer's interview here.

In recent weeks, Kucinich has been spending much of his time and energy trying to maintain some kind of role in an increasingly whittled-down Democratic field. In particular, he has vocally (and in some cases legally) contested his exclusion from several televised debates.

But in recent days, the Ohio congressman's attentions have turned back to his home turf, where he faces primary challenges from Cleveland City Councilman Joe Cimperman and North Olmstead Mayor Thomas O'Grady, among others.

Continue reading "Plain Dealer: Kucinich To Exit Presidential Race"

Posted at 4:35 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, WH 2008
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McCain Wins Coveted Rambo Endorsement

Haha, we kid. About the "coveted" part, anyway. But seriously, Sylvester Stallone really has endorsed Arizona Sen. John McCain for president.

"I like McCain a lot. A lot," Sly told Fox News. "And you know, things may change along the way, but there's something about matching the character with the script. And right now, the script that's being written and reality is pretty brutal and pretty hard-edged like a rough action film, and you need somebody who's been in that to deal with it."

Continue reading "McCain Wins Coveted Rambo Endorsement"

Posted at 12:50 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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January 23, 2008

Econ Watch: Throwing $$$ At The Problem

Yesterday, President Bush and the leaders of his political opposition, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, strongly signaled that they were on board with the outlines of the White House's economic stimulus proposals. That may be by necessity, since all parties are under intense pressure to jolt consumers and businesses into spending again.

Though Republicans and Democrats in Congress are still quibbling over who will get the tax rebates -- everyone, or just those who pay income tax -- the global market chaos of this week is spurring them to make a deal, fast. "There are no issues of disagreement right now," House Minority Leader John Boehner told reporters yesterday. Though Bush's plan doesn't include rebates for low- and moderate-income workers who pay more in payroll tax than income tax, there are signs that Republicans can be persuaded to include those groups.

"It must be broad-based. To be effective, the package must reach a large number of citizens," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in a speech yesterday. The Washington Post interpreted Paulson's selection of the word "citizens," rather than "taxpayers," as a sign that the White House is also willing to expand coverage of its tax rebates.

The Democrats' case -- that low-income people who aren't eligible for those $800-$1,600 checks not only need them the most, but are more likely to spend them immediately -- is a compelling one. But before we go there, maybe lawmakers should explain why mailing out checks to millions of Americans is a good idea in the first place.

Continue reading "Econ Watch: Throwing $$$ At The Problem"

Posted at 4:56 PM
Posted to: Ben Bernanke, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Economy, Federal Reserve, President Bush, Taxes, WH 2008
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WH 2008: The Ad War Goes National

Feb. 5 -- the dreaded "Super Tuesday" when residents in nearly two dozen states go the polls to vote in their presidential primaries -- is now less than two weeks away. And for those few remaining Americans who had chosen to remain blissfully unaware of the ins and outs of the White House race, the jig is now officially up. Whether you like it or not, you're going to be hearing from the candidates -- via paid television advertisements.

Democratic hopeful Barack Obama became one of the first candidates to go national with his latest TV ad buy. The spot, which features clips from his now-famous keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, is already in heavy rotation on CNN and MSNBC. Consider it the first flurry in an upcoming blizzard of ads that will begin to hit TV sets in states where there's been little to no campaign activity thus far.

Today's Ad Spotlight has more on Obama's ad, including the controversy over his decision to air it nationally at a time when Democratic candidates have pledged not to campaign in Florida.

Posted at 2:16 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, WH 2008
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January 22, 2008

Fred Thompson Bows Out; Will He Endorse McCain?

UPDATED.

After running what often seemed a half-hearted campaign for the presidency, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is dropping out of the race for the Republican nomination.

"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for president of the United States," Thompson said in a brief, 45-word press statement. "I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."

His campaign delivered the same message to his supporters on the popular social networking site Facebook, though with this added note: "Thanks for your support, everyone."

Thompson opted for an exit not typical for major presidential candidates, most of whom choose to deliver the news that they are ending their bids in a personal address to the volunteers and supporters who've spent months toiling on their behalf. Saturday night, after the results of the South Carolina Republican primary showed he'd finished a negligible third, would have been a prime opportunity to have done so.

Many expected Thompson to drop out that night if he did not place at least second. Instead, he joked that he still might win and gave no indication one way or another about the future of his campaign.

Continue reading "Fred Thompson Bows Out; Will He Endorse McCain?"

Posted at 3:49 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Republicans, WH 2008
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January 19, 2008

Super Saturday I: McCain Wins S.C. Primary In Nail-Biter

UPDATED.

Now you may call it a comeback: John McCain has taken the South Carolina Republican primary.

McCain pulled out a narrow victory over Mike Huckabee, 33 percent to 30 percent. Fred Thompson (16 percent) and Mitt Romney (15 percent) basically tied for third.

"You know, it took us a while, but what's eight years among friends?" McCain quipped in his trademark self-deprecating manner, referencing his South Carolina loss to President Bush in 2000. "As I have said before, I know that before I can win your vote, I must earn your respect. And the only way I know how to do that is by being honest with you. I have tried to do that throughout this campaign, and to put my trust in your willingness to give me your fair consideration. So far, it seems to be working out just fine," he continued, in a room filled with ecstatic volunteers and supporters who minutes before had been chanting "Mac is back! Mac is back!"

McCain also made sure to note -- or gloat, perhaps -- that the chattering classes had declared his campaign DOA just months ago. "I am aware that for the last 28 years, the winner of the South Carolina primary has been the nominee of our party. We have a ways to go, of course," he said. "There are some tough contests ahead, starting tomorrow in the state of Florida. But, my friends, we are well on our way tonight. And I feel very good about our chances."

The outcome in South Carolina tonight is meaningful for at least two big reasons. One is that neither Huckabee nor McCain directly engaged in a negative way in a state infamous for its down-and-dirty politics.

Continue reading "Super Saturday I: McCain Wins S.C. Primary In Nail-Biter"

Posted at 10:05 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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January 18, 2008

Can This Brand Be Saved?

It's been one year since the unofficial kickoff of the 2008 presidential campaigns, and the state of play for the Republican nomination contest is remarkable both for what has changed and what hasn't.

Most obviously different are the front-runners. Mike Huckabee, nationally unknown this time in 2007, now rides comfortably in the top tier. He's always had the goods to do well in this campaign but faced long odds against better-funded celebrity candidates.

Both he and John McCain have smashed pundits' expectations and are now enjoying the attention and funding that front-runner status guarantees. But in many ways, the game for the Republicans hasn't changed one bit. This field still lacks a candidate who is all things to all GOP voters. The party isn't coalescing around one or two choices, as is happening in the Democratic race. Rather, the party is being divvied up like a pie, with each candidate representing just a slice of the big-picture GOP platform.

The primary vote is so fractured, in fact, that a brokered convention actually seems a distinct possibility. Yeah, yeah, we hear that every other cycle. Only, the longer you examine the differences among Huckabee, McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, the more completely, utterly irreconcilable those differences seem. MSNBC's Chris Matthews is taking even more heat this week for a comparison he made between the GOP and Iraq's warring factions. Matthews may have stumbled through that analogy rather inelegantly, but he is on to something.

Continue reading "Can This Brand Be Saved?"

Posted at 3:25 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Karl Rove, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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Nevada Caucus Decision: The Campaigns Respond

Yesterday's decision to allow several Las Vegas casinos to double as caucus sites in tomorrow's presidential nominating contest was met with predictable responses from the two campaigns expected to be most affected by the ruling.

Barack Obama, whose backing by the state's Culinary Workers Union is expected to boost his standing among the laborers who will be caucusing at the casino sites, hailed U.S. District Court Judge James Mahan's decision and chided rival Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign in a meeting with the San Francisco Chronicle's editorial board yesterday.

"This caucus process was designed by Democratic Party of Nevada in conjunction with the Democratic National Committee," he told the board. "I, as somebody who's not part of the establishment of the Democratic Party, had no say in the rules... [but] individuals like Harold Ickes, Clinton's key adviser, were a part of making these rules. And some of the people who filed the lawsuit were a part of making these rules," he added in reference to the involvement of Clinton supporters in challenging the casino sites.

Late yesterday afternoon, the Clinton camp came out with its own statement disavowing any involvement in the lawsuit but clearly expressing regret at the decision. "Make no mistake -- the current system that inhibits some shift workers from being able to participate, while allowing others to do so, would seem to benefit other campaigns. More importantly it is unfair," the statement reads. "The Obama campaign has been clear in its belief that whoever wins the culinary union endorsement will win Nevada. We will leave it up to the people of Nevada to make that decision."

For background on the disputed sites, see The Gate's coverage here.

Posted at 8:50 AM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, WH 2008
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January 17, 2008

WH '08: The MSNBC Pile-On (Updated)

First, the disclosure: MSNBC is a content partner of National Journal.

Thanks to a swirl of big economic news and the Republican National Committee's Winter Meeting (our post on that goes up tomorrow), we're a little late with the reaction to Tuesday night's Democratic candidates debate that we promised. If you watched it, you'll recall that moderators Brian Williams and Tim Russert started off the forum in Vegas with questions about the race tiff between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama -- which both sides had by then declared over. (If you missed it, see our liveblog coverage.)

More to some viewers' chagrin, Williams brought up the dirty-politicking, false Internet rumors about Obama's secret Islamofascist plot to take over the country.

Continue reading "WH '08: The MSNBC Pile-On (Updated)"

Posted at 9:54 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Media, WH 2008
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Dissecting Nevada's Caucus Fracas

UPDATED.

U.S. District Judge James Mahan has ruled in favor of the Nevada Democratic Party in a dispute over the use of casinos along the Las Vegas strip as caucus sites in Saturday's presidential nominating contest. The ruling allows voting to be held at the casinos as planned.

Mahan determined that the Democratic Party had a right to set its own rules, and he said he did not want to set a precedent that could impact other caucuses held across the U.S. AP has details.

Today's decision will likely have a profound impact on Saturday's results in what is shaping up to be a very close three-way race among Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama (the GOP contenders are largely ignoring Nevada in favor of South Carolina).

Continue reading "Dissecting Nevada's Caucus Fracas"

Posted at 3:00 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, WH 2008
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January 16, 2008

Quote Of The Day

"When I was in college, we used to take a popcorn popper, because that was the only thing they would let us use in the dorm, and we would fry squirrels in a popcorn popper in the dorm room."

--Mike Huckabee, describing a favorite college snack. Note to selves: Fried squirrel = fattening.

Posted at 1:53 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Mike Huckabee, Republicans, WH 2008
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Economy's Woes Hit Americans In Their Tummies

Rising food prices may be one of the most underreported economic stories. New data show that this trend is impacting the larger economy.

Consumer prices rose 4.1 percent last year, according to the Labor Department. In a new report, the Federal Reserve found no growth in factories, mines and utilities last month. Inflation is the highest it's been in 17 years, and the Fed is expected to announce a half-point rate cut to ease the pain when it meets later this month.

AP reports: "Energy costs rose by 17.4 percent this past year while food costs rose by 4.9 percent. Both were the biggest increases since 1990. Gasoline prices were up 29.6 percent, the biggest increase since they soared by 30.1 percent in 1999."

Obviously, this is hitting Americans who live paycheck to paycheck the hardest, which is why we've seen the economy skyrocket among voters' lists of concerns going into the 2008 elections. But the rise in food prices is perceived as a mixed blessing by analysts.

Continue reading "Economy's Woes Hit Americans In Their Tummies"

Posted at 11:25 AM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Democrats, Economy, John McCain, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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January 15, 2008

The Dems In Vegas: Liveblogging The Debate

End note. We've suspected for a while that the media have blown up trivialities in the Democratic nomination contest because the candidates are mostly on board with each other on the major issues. This forum was a case in point.

Have Clinton and Obama really been squabbling over who is the rightful heir to MLK? Of course not. But you might have been led to believe otherwise by the previous days' news cycles, which is why it came up tonight.

Is Obama really struggling to convince voters that he's not a jihadist in disguise? Certainly. Not. The only plausible defense Williams et al. could give for bringing that story up is that it's already out there, and they were simply giving Obama a chance to put the rumors to rest. Again, we say: Anyone willing to believe those rumors hasn't been following Obama hardly at all and probably wouldn't vote for him no matter what. Imagine George Stephanopoulos asking John McCain about his rumored illegitimate black baby. Some things, my friends, should simply be out of bounds.

You're going to hear more about the rocky beginning of this debate tomorrow, I suspect. We'll update with reaction in the afternoon. [I lied; we'll go up with it Thursday.]

By the way, with 89 percent of precincts reporting, it's not even close: Romney trounced McCain 39 percent to 30 percent. Because Romney is a native son, a win in Michigan means much less than a loss would have. Still, he needed a gold, and he'll use his victory tonight to convince GOP voters that he's still in it to win it. See reports on the GOP contest here and here.

Continue reading "The Dems In Vegas: Liveblogging The Debate"

Posted at 11:16 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Gravel, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, WH 2008
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Will Dennis Menace MSNBC's Vegas Debate?

UPDATED.

No, he won't. Keith Olbermann just reported that Nevada's Supreme Court has overruled a lower-court judge in favor of MSNBC's decision to exclude Dennis Kucinich from tonight's debate.

On the merits alone, it looked like the network would have to reinvite Kucinich in order to air the Democratic candidates forum at 9 p.m. EST as scheduled.

The Ohio rep sued parent network NBC earlier for excluding him from the Las Vegas debate. District Court Judge Charles Thompson ruled in Kucinich's favor and told the Peacock Network that he would order an injunction stopping the debate if Kucinich was not included.

NBC appealed Thompson's decision to Nevada's Supreme Court. With less than an hour to go before showtime, the court announced that MSNBC had not breached its contract when it disinvited Kucinich from the debate.

Continue reading "Will Dennis Menace MSNBC's Vegas Debate?"

Posted at 8:13 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, Duncan Hunter, John Edwards, Republicans, Ron Paul, WH 2008
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Polling: It's Off The Hook

Have you given up your old landline phone and gone completely wireless, but miss the company of political pollsters calling between the hours of 5 and 9 p.m.? Then Gallup has some good news for you. Gallup's editor in chief, Frank Newport, announced Monday that the nation's oldest polling company began including cell phone users in its surveys as of Jan. 1, 2008. The move means Americans will now be able to voice their support for Duncan Hunter or their disapproval of Congress while driving across town or dining in a crowded restaurant.

In the past, Gallup, along with most pollsters, typically called only traditional landline phones in its research, a practice that has sparked criticism from some who argue that the practice undercounts certain demographics, particularly young people. Now that Gallup has begun polling Americans who have only a cell phone but no landline, the results will be combined with data collected from landline users.

Continue reading "Polling: It's Off The Hook"

Posted at 2:50 PM
Posted to: Campaigns
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Thanks, Citigroup: A Weepy Day On Wall Street

In case anyone has any lingering doubts, the U.S. economy is teetering dangerously close to recession. The latest evidence: Citigroup actually managed to surprise with its 4Q 2007 results today, in an environment that already expects the worst.

Now, for the really dire news: Rich people are pinching pennies.

Middle class stagnation is by now the natural state of things in the American economy. That those consumers are exercising caution is to be expected, particularly as gas prices skyrocket. But when the wealthy start trimming back on their Louis Vuitton and Tiffany purchases, you know something is afoot.

According to a report in this morning's New York Times, high-end retailers Nordstrom, Saks Fifth Avenue and Tiffany experienced a marked slowdown in sales last month.

The rate of spending by American Express' customers, "a generally affluent group of consumers," fell from 13 percent growth to 10 percent growth, "the first slowdown since the 2001 recession," according to the Times report.

That's right, folks. Even Marty Scorsese is holding back.

Continue reading "Thanks, Citigroup: A Weepy Day On Wall Street"

Posted at 12:16 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Economy, President Bush, WH 2008
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Unity '08 Goes Public With Bloomberg Intentions

Leaders of a group that was trying to build a bipartisan presidential ticket are abandoning that effort and cutting to the chase, announcing this morning that they are forming a "Draft Bloomberg" committee.

Republican Doug Bailey, founder of Hotline and once a campaign consultant to Gerald Ford, and Democrat Gerald Rafshoon, a top adviser to Jimmy Carter, will see if they can get New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to do what others have failed to do so far: show his hand.

"I've always assumed that if he really doesn't want to run, he can make that crystal clear to everybody and stop everything that is going on formally and informally on his behalf," Bailey said. "He hasn't done that to us or anybody else as far as I can see."

Continue reading "Unity '08 Goes Public With Bloomberg Intentions"

Posted at 10:00 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, Michael Bloomberg, WH 2008
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January 14, 2008

Democrats Seeking Broad Backing For Stimulus Package

As part of an effort to seek bipartisan agreement on an economic stimulus package, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi met today with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and other Democrats laid out their ideas for an aid proposal.

"We hope to work in a bipartisan way for an initiative that is timely, targeted and temporary," Pelosi said before this afternoon's closed-door meeting. Quick action on a stimulus package has become the top issue for the White House and Democratic congressional leaders, although neither side has offered details. House Democratic leaders are expected to meet Tuesday, when that chamber returns to Washington after the long holiday recess, to discuss the legislative possibilities.

Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have requested meetings with President Bush after he returns Wednesday from a visit to the Middle East. The Senate returns to work next week.

Continue reading "Democrats Seeking Broad Backing For Stimulus Package"

Posted at 4:20 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Economy, House, President Bush, Senate, WH 2008
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Poll Track: Riding The Early-Primary Tide

If there were any doubts about the continued importance of the Iowa and New Hampshire nominating contests in light of this year's accelerated primary schedule, a slew of new national polls should put them to rest.

Last week, a Gallup/USA Today poll, the first national survey taken after the Iowa caucuses, showed significant jumps in support for that state's two winners -- Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee -- propelling each to the top of their respective party's slate. But those gains were apparently short-lived, as a flurry of new national polls conducted after the New Hampshire primary last week has the Granite State's victors -- Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain -- leading their respective fields.

For more details on recent national polling on the White House race, see today's Poll Track. And see National Journal's current cover story for analysis of how the dominant demographics and ideologies of future primary states are likely to impact the campaigns ahead of Feb. 5's "Super Tuesday" contests.

Posted at 1:44 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Republicans, WH 2008
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As Troop Surge Recedes, Focus In Iraq Shifts To Political Arena

Cautiously confident about the troop surge's success in tamping down violence in Iraq, U.S. military leaders are shifting their focus to the political arena, the Los Angeles Times reports this morning. Specifically, commanders are working to transfer more than 70,000 men working in the Sunni guard corps, aka "Concerned Local Citizens" or Awakening Councils, to the payroll of the Shiite-dominated national government. The men, many of them former Sunni insurgents, are currently working directly under the U.S. military, helping to enforce neighborhood security.

"The day-to-day commander in Iraq, Army Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, believes that the Iraqi government's reconciliation with onetime Sunni fighters represents the 'primary driver of enhanced security' over the next six months, according to internal military planning documents," the Times reports.

So far, however, the effort has run into some opposition among government officials wary of letting former insurgents into the fold. Specifically, they fear that the move could pave the way for a new rival army of Sunni insurgents. American commanders, on the other hand, fear that if Shiite leaders continue to resist, members of the Sunni security groups will abandon the effort and re-enter the battlefield.

The effort to integrate the citizens groups comes amid other tentative signs of progress in the long, slow process of political reconciliation among Iraq's warring factions. Over the weekend, the Iraqi Parliament passed the Justice and Accountability Law, which allows some former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party to seek government jobs and claim their pensions for the first time since the 2003 U.S. invasion.

Continue reading "As Troop Surge Recedes, Focus In Iraq Shifts To Political Arena"

Posted at 11:49 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush, WH 2008
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January 11, 2008

UPDATED: A Completely Unexpected Get For Huckabee

Newsday columnist and FOX News regular James Pinkerton has signed on as an adviser to Mike Huckabee's campaign. Pinkerton, an alum of the Reagan and Bush 41 administrations, said in a statement that he "jumped at the opportunity" to help the former Arkansas governor "restore the magnificent Reagan coalition."

That Pinkerton is suspending his relationship with FOX and his column of 14 years is not only surprising, but also says something about the momentum building around Huckabee.

It's been oft-noted that the 2008 GOP presidential front-runners all clash with the Republican Party establishment in some way. (Mitt Romney is the GOP Establishment Candidate to a tee, but is having trouble convincing Republicans of his authenticity.) It was believed that despite his Iowa win, Huckabee would face vehement opposition from the anti-tax/pro-wealth, anti-illegal immigration and libertarian wings of his party. That may yet be the case. But the fact that the campaign was able to convince Pinkerton to sign on may indicate that Reagan idolizers in the party see more that they like in Huckabee than not.

Continue reading "UPDATED: A Completely Unexpected Get For Huckabee"

Posted at 5:13 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Taxes, WH 2008
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January 10, 2008

Richardson Rides Into The Sunset

UPDATED.

"As we head out West, the fight goes on!" Bill Richardson declared after a disappointing fourth-place finish in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. But in New Mexico this afternoon, the governor was singing a decidedly different tune as he bid his presidential campaign adieu.

"It is with great pride, understanding and acceptance that I am ending my campaign for president of the United States," he told a crowd of supporters after being introduced by his wife, Barbara, and Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M. Calling his unsuccessful bid "an experience I will treasure and I will never forget," Richardson said, "I believe we made our case to the people. A case for change, but guided by an experienced hand."

Despite his evident disappointment in failing to drum up enough support in the early primary states, Richardson went on to praise his opponents, calling them "the most talented field of my entire lifetime, running to change the direction of our country. And in the end, one of them will."

In his speech, Richardson also endorsed Udall for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici, effectively ending speculation that the governor would launch a Senate bid himself.

Continue reading "Richardson Rides Into The Sunset"

Posted at 4:00 PM
Posted to: Bill Richardson, Campaigns, Democrats, WH 2008
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On Surge Anniversary, New Survey Shows Different Iraqi Death Toll

On this, the one-year anniversary of President Bush's televised address announcing the so-called surge strategy, the White House and congressional backers of the surge are praising the security gains made over the past year by the increased presence of U.S. troops in Iraq.

"Conditions in that country have been utterly transformed from those of a year ago, as a consequence of the surge," Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Joseph Lieberman, I/D-Conn., wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed this morning. "The number of car bombings, sectarian murders and suicide attacks has been slashed. American casualties have also fallen sharply, decreasing in each of the past four months."

During that time, Iraqi deaths have also decreased, although the numbers are still distressingly high. And a new study [PDF] published online today by the New England Journal of Medicine adds another layer of mystery to the question of just how many Iraqis have fallen since the U.S. invasion began nearly five years ago.

The new estimate, compiled by researchers from the Iraqi government and the World Health Organization, puts the death toll from violence at about 151,000 from March 2003 to June 2006. Conducted over the past two years, the survey stands in sharp contrast to a widely reported 2006 study [PDF] that estimated about 654,965 Iraqis had died in the war within a similar time frame -- a claim that quickly became a political lightning rod in the congressional elections that year.

Continue reading "On Surge Anniversary, New Survey Shows Different Iraqi Death Toll"

Posted at 3:35 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Iraq, Middle East, President Bush
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Rule Change To Allow FEC Meeting Despite Hill Standoff

The Federal Election Commission is moving to conduct some business despite a political standoff that leaves it unable to issue formal opinions.

After tweaking its rules in December, the agency announced Tuesday it will convene a Jan. 24 public meeting where the commission's two members, Republican David Mason and Democrat Ellen Weintraub, will discuss reports drafted by staff in response to requests for opinions. Without a quorum, the commissioners cannot approve binding opinions, but the discussions and staff recommendations should guide the requesters' actions, according to an FEC spokesman.

"The idea is that maybe the discussion will help the requesters get a sense of where the commission stands," the spokesman said. The guidance will be particularly clear if Weintraub and Mason take similar positions.

The FEC usually has three Republican and three Democratic members but has been left short by a clash between President Bush and Senate Democrats.

Continue reading "Rule Change To Allow FEC Meeting Despite Hill Standoff"

Posted at 1:12 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Senate
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January 09, 2008

WH '08: Don't (!!!) Call It A Comeback

"Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice," a relieved and triumphant Hillary Rodham Clinton told a roaring crowd of supporters last night.

Today's campaign news cycle is all about how the media and pundits boo-boo'd so badly, having declared Clinton's campaign DOA heading into the New Hampshire primary and John McCain out for the count for the last six months running. There's a sea of red faces out there but, we contend, for the wrong reason.

Last we checked, journalism was about reporting facts, not predicting them. Some amount of prognostication can be quite useful for contextualizing the news. But when so many talking heads call a close contest well before the first vote tallies come in, what's the point of that, exactly? It seems as if egos, and not the public, are the ones getting served.

Leave it to quirky, independent-minded Granite Staters to tell the rest of the country: Not so fast.

Continue reading "WH '08: Don't (!!!) Call It A Comeback"

Posted at 5:58 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Media, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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Supremes Hear Arguments In Voter ID Case

UPDATED.

Just in time for the 2008 elections, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments this morning on whether laws requiring a government-issued photo ID to vote are constitutional (transcript [PDF]).

The main topic at hand is election fraud. We previewed the case back in September when it was granted cert. Surprisingly, the justices seemed eager to steer the arguments away from the political touchiness of the voter ID issue.

The first questions asked of Paul Smith, arguing for petitioners, concerned whether his clients even had standing to sue the Marion County Election Board and Indiana secretary of state over one of the strictest voter ID laws in the land. Justice Antonin Scalia and Chief Justice John Roberts grilled Smith on this point, and for good reason: the plaintiffs included the Democratic Party of Indiana, which sued on the grounds that the government-issue photo ID required was unfairly prohibitive for elderly and poor voters, who may not own cars or driver's licenses.

The justices were essentially asking Smith to prove that the plaintiffs had actually been harmed by the law. A skeptical Roberts noted the lower-court judge's finding that "there is not a single plaintiff who intends not to vote because of the new law -- that is, who would vote were it not for the law."

"Well, Your Honor, the record in this case was made when an election had not yet happened," Smith replied. "So that comment, while it was certainly made, I don't quite understand its significance. This case was brought to try to prevent an irreparable loss of constitutional rights in advance of the implementation of this law."

Smith added that since the January 2007 Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals ruling [PDF], elections had been held under the law and that a number of people who did not have photo IDs were not allowed to vote.

Continue reading "Supremes Hear Arguments In Voter ID Case"

Posted at 5:56 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Constitution, Supreme Court
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Quotes Of The Day

"I like Obama, but I won't apologize for comparing him to a kind and beloved faun."

--Chicago Tribune columnist John Kass

"Barack Obama, whatchya gonna do for my momma. That's what I want to know."

--rapper/actor Ice Cube, in remarks to the New York Observer

Posted at 5:55 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, WH 2008
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Iowa & N.H.: The Biggest Loser

The results from the long-awaited, much-anticipated and way overhyped first two nominating contests of the 2008 presidential election are in, and the biggest loser appears to be the media. So quick to take Iowa as gospel, the chattering classes are hanging their heads in shame today and, in some cases, even admitting they were wrong.

The Gate hasn't exactly shied away from criticizing the media's frenzied, and sometimes irresponsible, coverage of the '08 race. But hats off to Slate for compiling a few choice election-night lowlights from cable news to illustrate just how bad things can get. Watch and let the laughter -- and the tears -- soothe your primary-fatigued soul.

Posted at 1:35 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Media, WH 2008
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Clinton Takes New Hampshire In Stunner; McCain (& Huckabee) Also Triumph

UPDATED WITH FINAL RESULTS.

Hillary Rodham Clinton has pulled out an upset in New Hampshire, where a surprisingly tight battle with Barack Obama upended early predictions that a misguided strategy might doom her bid for the Democratic nomination. The upside for those embarrassed by their premature crystal ball-gazing is that voters across the country have a real menu of options in both parties.

"I come tonight with a very, very full heart," Clinton said to tremendous cheering and applause from supporters. "I want to especially thank New Hampshire. Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice."

The crowd roared in response. More than anyone else on the 2008 slate of presidential candidates, the question of "how human" she seems dogs the former first lady. When Clinton appeared to be the inevitable nominee just months ago, it was because she had defied expectations in her strong debate performances and favorable responses from voters on the trail. In what was probably a moment of simple, human fatigue (although longtime Clinton-haters will say otherwise), she appeared to choke up during an exchange in a diner yesterday. A media frenzy ensued, and pundits were wondering out loud whether Clinton was too soft to endure the knocks of a presidential campaign.

By a hair (39 percent to 36 percent), Granite State voters voiced their preference for Clinton today, putting on pause the post-Iowa surge Obama appeared to be riding. If you aren't already convinced, Clinton's squeaker may be yet more proof that cable news is often best watched on mute.

Continue reading "Clinton Takes New Hampshire In Stunner; McCain (& Huckabee) Also Triumph"

Posted at 10:35 AM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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January 08, 2008

ICYMI: War In Iraq *Still On*

Hey everybody, we're still at war in Iraq! (And Afghanistan.) We know, it's easy to forget when every newspaper and news channel is focused on New Hampshire.

The Gate is going to let Granite State voters do their thing -- you know, democracy -- and will update with the results tonight when they are confirmed. In the meantime, here are some developments from Iraq that you will have missed if you're as glued to the TV as we are.

U.S. and Iraqi forces have begun a significant air and land raid in insurgent-infested Diyala River Valley. About 4,000 U.S. and Iraqi soldiers are involved in the effort, which launched overnight, the Los Angeles Times reports.

The Pentagon's new counterinsurgency strategy has successfully brought violence down, but commanders still face an uphill battle in their bid to scrub out/neutralize al-Qaida in Iraq. Part of the reason why is that militant fighters in Iraq are by now well-versed in dissipating into the general population when these U.S.-led missions begin.

According to the LAT account, "there were reports that the 50 to 60 senior insurgent leaders holed up northwest of Muqdadiya had fled."

Continue reading "ICYMI: War In Iraq *Still On*"

Posted at 5:09 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Middle East, Military, Palestinians, President Bush, Terrorism, WH 2008
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Study: U.S. Lags Industrialized Nations In Preventable Deaths

When the Republican candidates for president met Saturday for one of their final debates before today's New Hampshire primary, there was one point on which all six of them seemed to agree -- America has "the best health care system in the world."

While the Democrats have spent much time and energy proposing sweeping reforms to increase access for the 47 million uninsured Americans, the Republicans have been warning that a move to "socialized medicine" -- which is how they characterize the government-run systems of most other industrialized nations -- would compromise the quality of care. For example, Rudy Giuliani asserted in a radio ad that, when he was diagnosed with prostate cancer, his chances of survival in the U.S. were nearly double what they would have been in England "under socialized medicine."

Those figures were later disputed by some experts, but in the end his point about disease treatment may be irrelevant. As Mike Huckabee pointed out in the debate, "What we have in America is a health care maze. It's built on the idea that we wait until people are so desperately ill that the cost to try to fix them is catastrophic and out of control."

A new study published in the policy journal Health Affairs seems to echo Huckabee's concerns. In the study, the United States came in dead last among 19 leading industrialized nations in preventable deaths. The researchers based their analysis, which placed France, Japan and Australia at the top of the heap, on the number of deaths that "could have been prevented by access to timely and effective health care," Reuters reports.

Continue reading "Study: U.S. Lags Industrialized Nations In Preventable Deaths"

Posted at 3:58 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Democrats, Health, Mike Huckabee, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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Quote Of The Day II

"People are holding their babies up and almost aiming their children at" Barack Obama.

--Brian Williams, on the frenzied New Hampshire crowds greeting the newly crowned Democratic front-runner.

Granite Staters are tossing their young into other candidates' arms, too. See Slate's slideshow of the Baby Primary.

Posted at 11:43 AM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, WH 2008
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Quote Of The Day

"Why didn't you shoot him?"

--Hillary Rodham Clinton, jokingly, to her Secret Service detail after MSNBC replayed tape in slow motion showing host Chris Matthews pinching her cheek before going in for a hug.

Posted at 11:23 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, WH 2008
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January 07, 2008

N.H. Countdown: Of Knuckleheads, Huckaburgers & Crybabies

As much as you might resent the presidential candidates for forcing you to confront the 2008 election so early, it's hard not to feel a little sorry for them. Most are sleep-deprived and anxious just four days after the Iowa caucuses, the results of which forced some candidates to retune their campaign strategies on the run.

This is especially true for Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is locked in a super-tight battle for first in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary, polls released today show. Her decisive loss to Barack Obama in Iowa seemed to send her camp into a tailspin. There are strong hints that if she is humiliated in the Granite State, a personnel shuffle will follow.

A mixture of anxiety, adrenaline and sheer physical exhaustion may explain why we've seen such a range of emotions from Clinton this week. First, she feistily returned fire at rivals Obama and John Edwards at the ABC/Facebook debate on Saturday -- a performance that indicated she wasn't going to take the onslaught of attacks lying down.

An uncharacteristically emotional moment for her today is sucking up most of the oxygen in coverage of New Hampshire. That she seemed to choke up when asked about the hardships of campaigning by a voter raises questions about her gender again. Those questions have distracted the media before, but the Clinton Crying story comes less than 24 hours before Granite Staters go to the polls.

Continue reading "N.H. Countdown: Of Knuckleheads, Huckaburgers & Crybabies"

Posted at 6:35 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Media, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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Kristol's NYT Column Debuts, World Doesn't End

Weekly Standard editor William Kristol's first column for the New York Times appeared this morning. As far as we can tell, no reader's head has spontaneously combusted.

The Times' Dec. 30 announcement that Kristol would be joining the Grey Lady's cabal of regular columnists rocked the liberal blogosphere. "Just shoot me," moaned The Nation's Katha Pollitt. "Kristol is a war-monger and a hate-monger," shouted author Jane Smiley, after announcing she was going to boycott the Times.

For whatever reason, liberals seem to get more shouty about conservative media than vice-versa. See: John Dickerson's account of Granite Staters' rough treatment of Bill O'Reilly. (We should note that Bill gave as good as he got.) And it's not like we ever see booing crowds flipping the bird whenever Maureen Dowd comes to town.

Continue reading "Kristol's NYT Column Debuts, World Doesn't End"

Posted at 2:01 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Media, President Bush
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January 06, 2008

Liveblogging the FOX Republican Roundtable -- Minus Ron Paul

9:37. It's over. If anyone's feelings were hurt tonight, like Hillary Rodham Clinton's were yesterday, it's Mitt Romney. He seemed to be running an impeccable campaign, and that's part of the problem. Schadenfreude is a female dog, as he is learning all too well.

As we said before, the GOP primary is shaping to be a real knife-fight between Romney and McCain. Will Huckabee deliver another surprise? The ground seems to be shifting yet again in the Republican nomination battle, but with the primaries so front-loaded voters have little time to carefully weigh their options. If there is buyer's remorse come spring, we'll hear a lot of calls for shaking up the primary calendar for 2012.

Check back tomorrow for a roundup of reaction to tonight's forum and the ones ABC held last night. Good night.

9:30. Why are you best qualified to go to the general?

Giuliani: I'm not perfect, but I can solve problems.

Thompson: I've never lost an election. OK, so I haven't run in many elections...

Huckabee: I can relate to ordinary, hardworking Americans.

Romney: "Chris, I got in this race because my family told me I ought to." [ed: Really??]

McCain: I can re-energize the Republican base. And I love New Hampshire!

Continue reading "Liveblogging the FOX Republican Roundtable -- Minus Ron Paul"

Posted at 9:37 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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January 04, 2008

WH '08: A Brusque, But Not Brisk, Farewell To Iowa

We haven't matched the rest of the media's outsized coverage of the Iowa caucuses because of the very nature of the caucuses themselves. But we have to admit that what we saw last night was pretty astonishing, in part because a poll predicting the results actually turned out to be right.

Of course, that could just be a coincidence, but the Des Moines Register appears to have corrected for some of the factors that plagued surveys past. (Though it's still not without its problems, Mark Blumenthal points out.) The David-vs.-Goliath victory of Mike Huckabee (results) flew in the face of conventional wisdom, proving that a virtual unknown with hardly any money to campaign with and virtually no organization could sell himself to voters.

Huck's defeat of Mitt Romney does not, however, mean that the conventional wisdom won't prevail.

If you know anything about how the caucuses work, you know that they are unrepresentative of party voters nationwide and are undemocratic, particularly on the Democratic side (irony, irony), to boot. So of course all the attention now goes to New Hampshire (but not Wyoming, which holds its GOP caucus tomorrow), for the first primary vote of the season. New Hampshire's results will almost certainly be different from Iowa's, so a lot of comparing and contrasting will ensue.

We purposely did not devote a lot of blog space to the caucuses for good reason. But yesterday's surprising results dispelled some long-standing prognostication about the 2008 presidential election. Since dispensing with conventional wisdom can be fun (OK, we're nerds), let's take out the trash after the jump.

Continue reading "WH '08: A Brusque, But Not Brisk, Farewell To Iowa"

Posted at 5:51 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Economy, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, John Edwards, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Middle East, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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Obama & Huckabee Win Iowa; Biden & Dodd Exit Race

Last night's Iowa caucuses created two decisive winners in the first-in-the-nation presidential nominating contest and two new casualties in the overall race.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Barack Obama pulled ahead of the Democratic pack with 38 percent of the vote, followed by John Edwards in second with 30 percent and Hillary Rodham Clinton close behind at 29 percent.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee completed his ascent from relative obscurity just a few months ago to capture first place with 34 percent of the vote, with 96 percent of precincts reporting. Mitt Romney came in second with 25 percent, and Fred Thompson eked out a third-place finish with 13 percent, dispelling (for now) recent rumors that he could soon drop out of the race. John McCain tied Thompson for third, with Ron Paul close behind at 10 percent.

Meanwhile, two other candidates did bid their presidential ambitions adieu last night. Democratic Sens. Joseph Biden and Christopher Dodd announced they were abandoning their bids after the former drew only 1 percent of the vote in Iowa and the latter garnered even less.

If you're all Iowa-ed out, NationalJournal.com's Ronald Brownstein looks ahead to the New Hampshire contest coming up on Tuesday. NationalJournal.com also has the overall results for the Democratic and Republican caucuses, and the Des Moines Register breaks down the results by county. See On Call for more reactions and details from Iowa, and check back with The Gate later today for more analysis.

Posted at 9:25 AM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, WH 2008
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January 03, 2008

Obama Projected To Win Iowa

CNN, NBC and FOX News are calling it for Barack Obama. His margin over John Edwards and Hillary Rodham Clinton is much smaller than Mike Huckabee's over Mitt Romney's, however, so the Edwards and Clinton camps may well declare tonight a sort-of victory, too.

Campaigning in New Hampshire, John McCain declared Huckabee's win "a victory" for positive campaigning -- a dig at Romney. The enemy of his enemy is Huckabee... for now. Romney spent loads of cash in negative ads against McCain and Huck. Does his defeat tonight force his campaign to rethink that strategy? Or, does his loss in Iowa mean the "anything goes" strategy holds?

Again, check with On Call for updates as the night progresses; we'll have full analysis tomorrow.

[UPDATED 9:52] Obama's lead is turning out to be pretty significant, according to the Register's returns.

-JANE ROH

Posted at 9:31 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, WH 2008
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Huckabee Projected To Win Iowa

Goodness, the caucuses haven't been going for an hour yet. This is incredibly early, but CNN is projecting that Mike Huckabee will win the Iowa Republican caucuses by a comfortable margin. Keep in mind that this is NOT a primary, so don't try to project the totals onto Iowa's Republicans as a whole. Still, this result will come as a great surprise to those who believed the Huckabee surge was more media hype than anything else. He still has no money and no organization compared to Mitt Romney, so carrying the momentum onto other states will be a tall order. Stay with On Call for early reaction throughout the night; we'll have full analysis tomorrow.

-JANE ROH

Posted at 8:59 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, WH 2008
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Hitting Huckabee's Tax Plan From The Right & Left

Mike Huckabee seems poised to best Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses tonight despite having a fraction of the Massachusetts millionaire's organization or campaign cash. A solid win will make Huckabee the talk of the nation tomorrow. But don't expect the rush to last.

The reason being that Huckabee's economic record is deeply troubling to very important segments of the GOP base. Huckabee anticipates hitting a wall on his record of tax increases as Arkansas governor, which is why he has come out forcefully -- albeit to the disbelief of some -- in favor of abolishing the IRS.

"I'm not being facetious," Huck protested after stating this position in a November debate. Maybe not, but tacking to an extreme in order to disprove the appearance of softness is politically risky -- mainly because extremes themselves are risky, often unpopular and quite frequently unrealistic.

Continue reading "Hitting Huckabee's Tax Plan From The Right & Left"

Posted at 5:50 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Mike Huckabee, Republicans, Taxes, WH 2008
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January 02, 2008

Longtime House Foreign Policy Leader To Retire

House Foreign Affairs Chairman Tom Lantos (subscription) today announced he will not seek re-election to a 15th term, citing a diagnosis of cancer of the esophagus.

"In view of this development and the treatment it will require, I will not seek re-election," the California Democrat said in a statement released by his office.

Continue reading "Longtime House Foreign Policy Leader To Retire"

Posted at 2:04 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Congress, House
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HappyIowaNewIowaYearIowa

In case you missed it, and there's pretty much no chance you have, the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow, Jan. 3, more than eight months (!) before the first party nominating convention will be held. The ground in both fields has shifted dramatically this month alone, which indicates that what the tiny percentage of Iowans who caucus tomorrow have to say will probably not hold.

Nonetheless, there are more media outlets on the ground in Iowa today than ever before, and coverage is wall-to-wall. We've explained before why Iowa polls are unreliable. The new Register surveys, which show Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in the lead, were conducted Dec. 27-30, when enough Iowans to skew the results were probably traveling and therefore were unable to pick up the phone. There are also questions about whether Iowans, who by some accounts are receiving more than one campaign-related phone call a night, are still picking up their phones at all. (Think about it: Would you?)

Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal -- a new National Journal Group colleague (welcome!) -- has some must-read explanations of Iowa polling.

Moreover, there are long-lingering questions about the actual significance of the Iowa caucuses. Democratic caucus-goers tend to be more liberal than primary voters elsewhere, and GOP caucus-goers more conservative. Fewer than 10 percent of Iowans, who are overwhelmingly white, participate, but the outsized media coverage arguably has a king-making effect. Those candidates who don't place in the top five might be considered road kill by Friday morning, which could doom them in other states where they are faring better.

Georgetown's Christopher Hull crunches the numbers in his new book, "Grassroots Rules" (seriously, there are charts and graphs). If you want to understand Iowa's effect on party nominations, read this book. His ultimate conclusion is that Iowa is important. But: "Controlling for New Hampshire results and measures of exhibition season performance, Iowa is not a statistically significant predictor of overall primary performance."

Continue reading "HappyIowaNewIowaYearIowa"

Posted at 1:04 PM
Posted to: Asia, Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Media, Mike Huckabee, Pakistan, Republicans, WH 2008
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Those Fickle Iowans...

MOUNT PLEASANT, Iowa -- A woman who famously switched from volunteering for Hillary Rodham Clinton to Barack Obama has changed her mind again.

Susan Klopfer was volunteering for Clinton until, she estimates, November. She worked hard as a volunteer but resented the advance staff that was brought in to take charge of the events. As the next-door neighbor of Clinton backer and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Klopfer (a recent transplant from Nevada and, therefore, a first-time caucus-goer) had a bit higher profile than most Iowans. When she switched, the Obama campaign made a video that got lots of play -- not only on YouTube, but also on cable news programs.

"It got more hits than Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. It got the all-time highest over that weekend," she said of the video's YouTube hits. The video was so potent that the Clinton campaign made a response video with its own former Obama supporters.

Yet when Klopfer showed up at a John Edwards house party this morning, it was because she was on the verge of switching again.

Continue reading "Those Fickle Iowans..."

Posted at 12:32 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, WH 2008
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Barbour Names Rep. Wicker To Fill Lott's Senate Seat

GOP Rep. Roger Wicker was named Monday by Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) to occupy the Senate seat vacated earlier this month by the resignation of former Senate Minority Whip Trent Lott. Wicker, 56, will serve until a special election is held to fill the remainder of Lott's term. Barbour has scheduled that contest for next Nov. 4, but that date is likely to be challenged in court by Democrats who contend that state law requires an earlier vote.

Wicker, first elected to the House in 1994 from what is now a reliably Republican House district in the northern section of the state, has accumulated a strongly conservative voting record during his years on Capitol Hill. His appointment to the Senate also opens up a prized seat on the House Appropriations Committee.

See the full story (subscription) for more details on Wicker's appointment and the partisan wrangling over the special election date. The Almanac of American Politics has a profile of Wicker (subscription).

-Louis Peck, CongressDaily

Posted at 7:54 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, Congress, Senate
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December 28, 2007

Why We Fight

Before the Christmas break, we wrote that Americans' dwindling interest in the Iraq war might be perilous to the national interest, as Alasdair Roberts recently contended in Foreign Policy. Now the war on terrorism -- which even critics of President Bush must admit now includes Iraq -- is back in the headlines, thanks to yesterday's tragic events.

The view from Washington is that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a serious kneecap blow to U.S. foreign policy. To quickly review: President Pervez Musharraf, an ally by necessity, is increasingly unpopular at home and for good reason. (People who live under military dictatorships generally do not enjoy the experience.) Meanwhile, there's a virulent strain of anti-Western, Islamic fanaticism seeping through Pakistan at the moment, which means this White House's usually cherished principles of liberty and democracy do not apply.

The Bhutto-Musharraf power-sharing compromise was seen as the most feasible shot at calming Pakistan's restive populace. In Bhutto, Washington saw a more reliable and transparent ally in the war against extremism, in part because of her shady ethical past. She had something to prove.

Now that she's gone, we're back to where we were, and less than two weeks before Pakistan's elections no less. No doubt there is panic in the Beltway today, if only for the dearth of available options now.

Continue reading "Why We Fight"

Posted at 3:06 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Bush Administration, Campaigns, China, Democrats, Iraq, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Middle East, Pakistan, President Bush, Republicans, Ron Paul, Russia, Terrorism, WH 2008
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December 27, 2007

Breaking: Benazir Bhutto Killed In Attack

UPDATED.

Outraged supporters of Benazir Bhutto have taken to the streets following confirmation that the Pakistani opposition leader was assassinated today, with at least one province placed on emergency alert.

Bhutto had just spoken at a campaign rally in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad, and had gotten into a car when a gunman opened fire. The apparent assassin then blew himself up. There are conflicting reports on how she was killed. Some witnesses said she had been shot in the neck and chest, while a doctor at the hospital that treated her told the New York Times she had shrapnel wounds but would not confirm she had been directly shot.

At least 15 other people were also killed in the attack, according to various news reports. "Police in Sindh have been put on red alert," a police official told Reuters, referring to Bhutto's home province. "We have increased deployment and are patrolling in all the towns and cities, as there is trouble almost everywhere."

Television footage is showing mobs of people setting fires and destroying property in the streets.

Continue reading "Breaking: Benazir Bhutto Killed In Attack"

Posted at 12:52 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Bill Richardson, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, John McCain, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, President Bush, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, Terrorism, WH 2008
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December 21, 2007

...But That Won't Mitigate A Really Bad Decade In Iraq

In his year-end press conference, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced that the Pentagon would not be issuing furlough notices "at this time." The branches of the military have had to lay off employees and cut corners while Congress and the White House tussle over continued war funding. The result has been piecemeal funding for the military, as anti-war lawmakers continue to pressure President Bush to accept a withdrawal deadline.

A June Center for Strategic and International Studies report [PDF] advised the Pentagon to stop requesting funding through war supplementals, which aren't included in the defense budget in order to make actual spending appear smaller than it really is. Total U.S. defense spending is only about 4 percent of GDP -- a very low war-time figure. The constantly cash-strapped military need not be so, the authors conclude, and the Pentagon should be asking for much more money with which to fight the Iraq war, the most pressing security problem facing the country.

Gates seemed to dispute the criticism that his department was lowballing Congress in order to provide political cover for the president. "I actually think we had a very thoughtful conversation with the House Armed Services Committee earlier in the year over what percent of GDP devoted to defense and securing the nation should be. I got the impression from both sides of the aisle that it ought to be about 4 percent," Gates said.

"I will be putting out a letter later this afternoon that basically acknowledges that we have to do some planning because we didn't get all the money" requested from Congress, he added.

Continue reading "...But That Won't Mitigate A Really Bad Decade In Iraq"

Posted at 5:05 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Iraq, John McCain, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Republicans, Robert Gates, WH 2008
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December 20, 2007

Tancredo Drops Out: The Exit Interview

UPDATED.

Neither FOX nor MSNBC bothered to cover Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo's announcement earlier today that he was dropping out of the race for the White House. CNN went to it at first, then cut away so the anchor could discuss the pronunciation of the congressman's surname. This, despite the pivotal role he has played in this cycle's Republican nomination battle.

Reached by phone at his Des Moines hotel room, Tancredo sounded relaxed and content with his decision to close shop. His candidacy, after all, was from the beginning about holding the big-name guys to account on illegal immigration.

"I have dedicated 10 years of my public life to warning the nation of the perilous consequences of massive, uncontrolled illegal immigration," Tancredo told supporters at a press conference this afternoon. "This message unfortunately has fallen on deaf ears in the highest office in the land. Without a president who is committed to securing the nation, we will always remain in jeopardy."

Tancredo's announcement had been expected since yesterday. He said the urgency he felt on illegal immigration compelled him to launch his bid despite what "we knew at the time were incredibly long odds." A nationally obscure figure best known among anti-immigration hardliners, Tancredo said in April that he was entering the race because of "the field, the field."

More on what he told us about Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson after the jump.

Continue reading "Tancredo Drops Out: The Exit Interview"

Posted at 6:10 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Congress, Fred Thompson, House, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, Senate, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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President Bush's Passive-Aggressive Holiday Greeting

Speaking at his final White House press conference of the year, President Bush congratulated Congress on its 11th-hour legislative achievements while making sure to backhand lawmakers for taking so long to get there.

"I thank the members of both parties for their hard work," Bush said, cheering the passage this week of the alternative minimum tax (AMT) patch, a lending crisis fix, an energy efficiency package and new defense spending. "I am pleased we are able to end this year on a high note."

Returning later to the AMT bill, the president added, "Unfortunately, Congress passed this legislation after a lengthy delay. It is going to add to the time it takes to process tens of billions in refunds. We will work hard to minimize the impact of congressional delay."

And after thanking Congress for sending him new spending for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan before the New Year, Bush noted that it was "approved at the last minute, nearly three months after the end of the fiscal year." He continued, "When Congress wastes so much time and leaves its work until the final days before Christmas, it is not a responsible way to run the government."

The president later denied that his relationship with the Democratic-led Congress was truly "antagonistic," but his annual pre-holiday address to the press corps encapsulated the testy and wearying push-pull the two branches have been engaged in all year.

Continue reading "President Bush's Passive-Aggressive Holiday Greeting"

Posted at 12:18 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, CIA, Campaigns, Congress, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, Lebanon, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Russia, Syria, Vladimir Putin, WH 2008
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Tancredo To Drop Out Of Presidential Race

UPDATED.

Long-shot Republican presidential candidate Tom Tancredo will make a "major announcement" from Iowa today, his campaign said yesterday, inviting speculation that the Colorado congressman will drop out of the race. AP reports this morning that "a person close to Tancredo" has confirmed that he will abandon his bid for the GOP nomination.

A campaign spokesman said he could not provide details.

Tancredo is perhaps too much of a niche (and not well-enough known) candidate for this race, but he may take credit for ensuring that his battle cry, illegal immigration, is a decisive issue in the GOP nomination fight. His is perhaps the most hard-line position of the GOP contenders -- he has called for an end to legal immigration as well -- and that has forced many of the front-runners to sharpen their own more moderate positions to avoid appearing weak by comparison. In the CNN/YouTube debate last month, he accused his aping rivals of trying to "out-Tancredo Tancredo."

Continue reading "Tancredo To Drop Out Of Presidential Race"

Posted at 7:50 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, Congress, House, Immigration, Republicans, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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December 19, 2007

Time Gets It Right With Person Of The Year

After being mocked and ridiculed for its gimmicky 2006 pick, Time magazine reverted to heft with this year's choice: Russian President (for Life) Vladimir Putin.

Continue reading "Time Gets It Right With Person Of The Year"

Posted at 12:33 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Europe, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, President Bush, Russia, U.K., WH 2008
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Global Health Survey Finds Regional Differences

Health care has been a prominent issue on the campaign trail in the U.S. this year, with presidential candidates, particularly on the Democratic side, vowing to expand access to health care coverage for the over 40 million Americans without insurance. According to a new study, these concerns about the quality and availability of health care are also shared worldwide, albeit in different ways.

The global survey [PDF] from the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Pew Global Attitudes Project shows that while health care ranks high among citizens' political priorities around the world, attitudes toward the issue vary widely according to where people live, their economic status and their experiences with particular diseases.

Overall, the survey of over 45,000 people in 46 countries finds that health is a "local phenomenon." Not surprisingly, respondents in areas hardest hit by disease and malnutrition, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, were more likely to rank health as the top problem for their countries. In other regions, including Latin America, Asia and Europe, crime, terrorism, drugs and pollution were perceived as greater threats than the spread of infectious diseases.

Continue reading "Global Health Survey Finds Regional Differences"

Posted at 12:30 PM
Posted to: Africa, Campaigns, Economy, HIV/AIDS, Health, U.N., WH 2008
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December 17, 2007

World Leaders Watch: The Economy, Stupid

To no one's surprise, Russian President Vladimir Putin said today that he accepts his top aide's offer of the prime minister's slot should Dmitry Medvedev win the presidency in March. Medvedev is Putin's longtime aide and handpicked successor for the presidency -- an office Putin is barred by law from seeking again.

"If the citizens of Russia show trust in Dmitry Medvedev and elect him the new president, I would be ready to continue our joint work as prime minister without changing the distribution of authority between the positions," Putin said in an address to his United Russia party.

Putin sought to allay concerns that the coming election would amount to just moving the deck chairs, but few Russians are under the illusion that Putin's power would really be capped by the traditional bounds of the much-weaker prime minister's post. Nonetheless, Medvedev, who was formally nominated by United Russia today, is assured a decisive victory in the March 2 vote. Why hasn't Putin's authoritarian power-grabbing dented his popularity? The economy.

Russians can forgive Putin his flaws because their economy is rocketing -- even if Putin isn't exactly responsible for that trend. Here in the United States, the perception that the economy is flagging is threatening to upend next year's elections -- and President Bush's legacy. For the second time this month, Bush devoted a public address to the economy in an attempt to persuade the public that things weren't as dire as they seemed.

"My attitude was if you're paying taxes you ought to get tax relief," Bush told the Rotary Club in Fredericksburg, Va., recalling concerns about the economy after the 9/11 attacks. "If you think about where we were, coming out of 2001, and where we are today, you can't help but say the plan worked.

Continue reading "World Leaders Watch: The Economy, Stupid"

Posted at 2:15 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Economy, Media, President Bush, Russia, Vladimir Putin
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McCain: The Media Darling Returns

It was a banner weekend for John McCain, as the GOP presidential hopeful whose candidacy was written off not so long ago by most reporters and pundits scooped up several major endorsements and a fawning profile in the Wall Street Journal.

Three key newspapers in the two top early primary states published glowing editorials backing McCain's bid for the GOP nomination this weekend. In Iowa, a state few are predicting McCain to win, the Des Moines Register formally endorsed the Arizona senator (as well as Hillary Rodham Clinton on the Democratic side), deeming him "most ready to lead America in a complex and dangerous world and to rebuild trust at home and abroad by inspiring confidence in his leadership."

New Hampshire's Portsmouth Herald also backed McCain, citing a quality the three-term senator has long trumpeted: "McCain will tell you the truth," the board writes, "even if it costs him the election."

Continue reading "McCain: The Media Darling Returns"

Posted at 9:10 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, John McCain, Republicans, WH 2008
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December 14, 2007

Is The Surge Working?

We said in our liveblog coverage of the final Democratic presidential candidates debate yesterday that the military component of the "surge" strategy in Iraq was working . An Iraq war vet who is now ex-military and a foreign-policy wonk in Germany weighs in (unedited):

Primacy of the Iraq war as an issue has slipped, but not because a tapering off of violence. It is still pretty constant, just down a little from the bloodiest season we've had since Nov 04 when the second Fallujiah was going on.

Continue reading "Is The Surge Working?"

Posted at 6:27 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, David Petraeus, Iraq, Middle East, Military, WH 2008
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Jim Cramer & Ron Paul: The Interview Of The Century So Far

It's nearly the weekend, but we urge you all to run home and TiVo the following: Rep. Ron Paul sits down with Jim Cramer on "Mad Money" tonight(!!!).

No shouting or renting of garments, according to an early transcript. Paul and Cramer both HATE the Fed in a big way, and that's topic No. 1 in the interview.

"I always feel like I'm out there by myself criticizing this institution that everybody thinks is like a holy temple, when the reality is these are just men and women like you and me except for they're making policy with no checks and balances," Cramer tells the GOP presidential candidate. "I wish you the best of luck, sir, with your campaign. You are changing things with what you're saying."

Do we have another convert to the Ron Paul Revolution? Will Cramer be Ron Paul's very own Oprah? The magic begins at 6 p.m. EST and re-airs at 11 on CNBC.

-JANE ROH

Posted at 5:12 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Economy, Republicans, Ron Paul, WH 2008
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Is The Clinton Campaign Being McCained?

Fingers point to strategist Mark Penn for allegedly running Hillary Rodham Clinton's bid for the Democratic nomination as if she'd already won it: here, here and here.

Curiously, these blame-the-strategist whisperings always seem to start when candidates are in mortal danger. Where were all these off-the-record critics earlier in the fall, when we first started to see that Clinton would actually have to, *gasp*, fight for the nomination? Might this not just be Camp Clinton's way of deflecting blame for the campaign's missteps away from the candidate?

Don't know who Mark Penn is? Learn more about him here. He's being mocked quite a bit today for his cocaine-laced (rhetorically speaking) performance on "Hardball" after the Democratic debate yesterday. Don't understand the headline of this post? See here.

-JANE ROH

Posted at 3:52 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Republicans, WH 2008
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December 13, 2007

Liveblogging The Final Dem Debate Of 2007!

4:10. All over, no more debates until next year, hurray!

Up until a couple of months ago, there seemed to be a critical mass of Democratic support building behind Clinton, in part because of her metamorphosis into a suddenly "human" and likable politician and the assumption that the Clinton machine could best take on the Republican nominee next year. The political press carried on that change vs. experience debate all summer and into the early fall.

But now the nomination fight has been upended, and polls [PDF] show (subscription) that Obama and Edwards are viable in general election matchups, too. That eliminates for some voters their primary thesis for supporting Clinton, and it's why she's been struggling to stay afloat this month.

Most of us can look forward to relaxing with family in a week or so, but for the presidential contenders and Iowans it's closing arguments time. One thought to keep in mind: Part of the shifting around in this field and in the GOP as well is that the Iraq war has largely dropped out of the debate. Iraq no longer dominates the front page because of the decrease in violence and because of the campaigns. That changes in March at the latest, when Gen. David Petraeus is due back in Washington to report on the ground situation. We know the military part of the surge is working, but we are not much farther than we were in September on political reconciliation. The "what's next?" question is still hanging out there, unanswered. The GOP front-runners have more or less indicated loyalty to the Bush administration's policies, so answers will have to come from the Democratic field.

Early reactions: boring, boring, nice, snark.

Continue reading "Liveblogging The Final Dem Debate Of 2007!"

Posted at 4:10 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Economy, Education, Health, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, Middle East, Republicans, Taxes, Trade, WH 2008
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December 12, 2007

Ohthankgod: Liveblogging The Last GOP Debate Of 2007

4:37. In a post-debate interview on CNN, Huckabee said he apologized to Romney for the Jesus/devil remark while sticking to his earlier insistence that the remark had been taken out of context.

"He was gracious," Huckabee said of Romney's response.

There's nothing in the Times mag feature, by the way, to suggest Huckabee meant anything by that comment beyond an expression of genuine curiosity. Andrew Sullivan found background for the question on the LDS Web site. Anyone who used to go to Sunday school knows that according to the Bible Satan/Lucifer/the devil was a fallen angel. Before he went evil he was just a regular angel, and in that sense, according to LDS, the devil and Jesus are brothers of a kind. OK, that's enough theology from me.

3:50. It's over, and insane as it sounds it feels too soon. That's a product of there having been a few too many non-contenders on the stage, no doubt.

Did uncommitted Iowans get what they needed here? Depends on whom they're leaning toward. Nothing bad happened to Huckabee, which is exactly what he needed as his viability star rises. Tancredo tried to portray Huck as an immigration flip-flopper, but... he's Tancredo. Lucky for Huckabee, Giuliani only goes there at grave risk to himself.

Romney didn't get a chance to zing Huckabee, but with that ad on the air he may not have needed to. And Huckabee was not asked about that Jesus/devil comment or his own attack-ish ad. The absence of theology in this debate may not be what some campaign prognosticators wanted, but it was classy, for immediate lack of a better word.

Continue reading "Ohthankgod: Liveblogging The Last GOP Debate Of 2007"

Posted at 4:37 PM
Posted to: Alan Keyes, Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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December 11, 2007

National Review Endorses Romney

Huge, HUGE endorsement for Mitt Romney, from a publication that has often seemed downright hostile to the former Massachusetts governor.

"Unlike some other candidates in the race, Romney is a full-spectrum conservative: a supporter of free-market economics and limited government, moral causes such as the right to life and the preservation of marriage, and a foreign policy based on the national interest," National Review's editors write.

Assessments on Romney's rivals: Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee are too polarizing within the party, John McCain could unify the party but is too moderate, Fred Thompson is conservative enough but has run a boring campaign.

On the religion issue: "For some people, Romney's Mormonism is still a barrier. But we are not electing a pastor."

Read the rest here.

Posted at 4:48 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Mitt Romney, Republicans, WH 2008
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Iowa '08: The Talons Come Out

Not counting the week between Christmas and New Year's, when presumably even Iowans will want to leave politics behind in favor of eggnog and football, the presidential candidates really have only about two weeks left of campaigning in the crucial caucus state -- and it shows. John Edwards is rolling up his sleeves for an eight-day Iowa bus tour. Barack Obama's showing off his most glamorous accessory. And yesterday, for the first time in his prolific ad campaign, Mitt Romney went negative.

The GOP contender became the first on either side of the aisle to purchase air time for an attack ad this week amid the continued rise of Mike Huckabee in both Iowa polls and national surveys of likely Republican primary voters. Romney's new spot blasts Huckabee's record on an issue that has proven to be a lightning rod for Republicans in Iowa -- immigration. Today's Ad Spotlight (subscription) has more details on the ad. Meanwhile, perhaps blunting the ad's blow to Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor was endorsed by Jim Gilchrist, founder of border security group the Minutemen, in Iowa this morning. MSNBC has more.

Continue reading "Iowa '08: The Talons Come Out"

Posted at 12:59 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Democrats, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, WH 2008
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December 10, 2007

Univision Debate Postmortem: The Six Amigos (Plus Ron Paul)

So, our liveblog effort was a bust thanks to my lack of high-tech closed-captioning, but it doesn't look as if we missed a whole lot in the way of fireworks. Because the immigration debate has been alienating Latino voters, it was in everyone's interest last night to promote Brand GOP (as opposed to Brand Me). Most of the seven candidates present did that, but at the expense of specifics.

In other words, this was a very broad-strokes debate. The Republican candidates have been vying for months to prove just how tough they can be on closing the borders, etc., which is sort of mandatory, as they're trying to win over mostly white, conservative base voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Then they found themselves in Miami last night before a sea of Latino Americans -- the fastest-growing bloc of voters in the nation. In order to hew to what they'd been saying about immigration reform up until last night, some of which may not have gone over well in this crowd, they had to fiddle with their rhetoric.

That translated to lots of talk of freedom and no trading barbs on sanctuary cities or sanctuary mansions. The central mission was to not tick anyone off, and on that score they probably succeeded.

Continue reading "Univision Debate Postmortem: The Six Amigos (Plus Ron Paul)"

Posted at 7:36 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Immigration, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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Judges Get More Flexibility On Crack Sentencing

In a 7-2 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court said that federal sentencing guidelines for drug crimes were nonbinding, giving judges some breathing room on sentences for offenses involving crack cocaine. Writing for the majority [PDF], Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg drew on the U.S. Sentencing Commission's recommendations that the 100-to-1 cocaine-crack possession ratio established by Congress be revised.

In 1986, Congress set much harsher penalties for crack cocaine offenders out of fear that use of the drug was fast becoming an epidemic in urban areas. The disparity in penalties can be seen in U.S. prisons, where blacks are disproportionately represented while powder cocaine offenders, who are mostly white, get off relatively easily.

Some activists have called the lopsided U.S. drug policy blatantly racist, but that was not really a calculation in today's decision. "A district judge must include the Guidelines range in the array of factors warranting consideration, but the judge may determine that, in the particular case, a within-Guidelines sentence is 'greater than necessary' to serve the objectives of sentencing," Ginsburg wrote. "In making that determination, the judge may consider the disparity between the Guidelines' treatment of crack and powder offenses."

Continue reading "Judges Get More Flexibility On Crack Sentencing"

Posted at 1:55 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Constitution, Crime, Drugs, Mike Huckabee, Republicans, Supreme Court, WH 2008
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December 09, 2007

Liveblogging The Univision Republican Debate

7:46. Just had to update with this: LOTS of applause in this crowd for a question about Hugo Chavez, Washington's least favorite South American leader. Have no idea what question was posed to Paul w/r/t to Chavez, but his response inspires waves and waves of boos. What just happened here? Tune in tomorrow to find out!

7:28. Well, I got my closed captioning to work -- and the captions are en Espanol. Sorry, readers, but looks like I'm going to have to abort this mission. Truly a first in Gate history.

That said, I am just dumbfounded that the producers would change the format of the Republican debate in such a way that many non-Spanish-speaking Americans would not be able to tune in. There are so many questions about where some of these candidates -- Romney, Giuliani -- really are on immigration reform. That isn't the case in the much more unified Democratic field -- questions about driver's licenses notwithstanding.

We'll have a roundup of reaction to the debate tomorrow. Daily Kos has a Spanish-speaker watching; you can check out their (hotly partisan) liveblog coverage here. The Corner was also stymied in its coverage attempt. Somewhere, Tom Tancredo is doing la cucaracha in front of a TV set.

Apologies again. See you all tomorrow.

Continue reading "Liveblogging The Univision Republican Debate"

Posted at 7:46 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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December 07, 2007

WH '08: We Can Haz Votes?

Iowa, Oprah. Oprah, Iowa.

Sure, she can move Tolstoy, but can she move middle-aged white women to the Jan. 3 caucuses? We'll get our first clues this weekend when Oprah Winfrey, probably the most famous woman in America, joins Democratic candidate Barack Obama on the campaign trail.

The Oprah and Obama show, as it's already being dubbed, hits Iowa tomorrow and South Carolina and New Hampshire on Sunday. Tickets for the Columbia, S.C., rally went so