January 04, 2008

Obama & Huckabee Win Iowa; Biden & Dodd Exit Race

Last night's Iowa caucuses created two decisive winners in the first-in-the-nation presidential nominating contest and two new casualties in the overall race.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Barack Obama pulled ahead of the Democratic pack with 38 percent of the vote, followed by John Edwards in second with 30 percent and Hillary Rodham Clinton close behind at 29 percent.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee completed his ascent from relative obscurity just a few months ago to capture first place with 34 percent of the vote, with 96 percent of precincts reporting. Mitt Romney came in second with 25 percent, and Fred Thompson eked out a third-place finish with 13 percent, dispelling (for now) recent rumors that he could soon drop out of the race. John McCain tied Thompson for third, with Ron Paul close behind at 10 percent.

Meanwhile, two other candidates did bid their presidential ambitions adieu last night. Democratic Sens. Joseph Biden and Christopher Dodd announced they were abandoning their bids after the former drew only 1 percent of the vote in Iowa and the latter garnered even less.

If you're all Iowa-ed out, NationalJournal.com's Ronald Brownstein looks ahead to the New Hampshire contest coming up on Tuesday. NationalJournal.com also has the overall results for the Democratic and Republican caucuses, and the Des Moines Register breaks down the results by county. See On Call for more reactions and details from Iowa, and check back with The Gate later today for more analysis.

Posted at 9:25 AM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, WH 2008
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December 13, 2007

Liveblogging The Final Dem Debate Of 2007!

4:10. All over, no more debates until next year, hurray!

Up until a couple of months ago, there seemed to be a critical mass of Democratic support building behind Clinton, in part because of her metamorphosis into a suddenly "human" and likable politician and the assumption that the Clinton machine could best take on the Republican nominee next year. The political press carried on that change vs. experience debate all summer and into the early fall.

But now the nomination fight has been upended, and polls [PDF] show (subscription) that Obama and Edwards are viable in general election matchups, too. That eliminates for some voters their primary thesis for supporting Clinton, and it's why she's been struggling to stay afloat this month.

Most of us can look forward to relaxing with family in a week or so, but for the presidential contenders and Iowans it's closing arguments time. One thought to keep in mind: Part of the shifting around in this field and in the GOP as well is that the Iraq war has largely dropped out of the debate. Iraq no longer dominates the front page because of the decrease in violence and because of the campaigns. That changes in March at the latest, when Gen. David Petraeus is due back in Washington to report on the ground situation. We know the military part of the surge is working, but we are not much farther than we were in September on political reconciliation. The "what's next?" question is still hanging out there, unanswered. The GOP front-runners have more or less indicated loyalty to the Bush administration's policies, so answers will have to come from the Democratic field.

Early reactions: boring, boring, nice, snark.

Continue reading "Liveblogging The Final Dem Debate Of 2007!"

Posted at 4:10 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Economy, Education, Health, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, Middle East, Republicans, Taxes, Trade, WH 2008
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December 04, 2007

NPR Debate: The Gloves Come... On

UPDATED.

As we had hoped, this afternoon's Democratic debate in Des Moines sponsored by NPR and Iowa Public Radio left little room for petty politics and applause lines (largely because there was no live audience) and brought the conversation back to the issues. Three main issues, to be exact: Iran, China and immigration.

Debate moderators Steve Inskeep, Michele Norris and Robert Siegel said they chose to narrow their questions to those three broad topic areas in order to dig deeper into the candidates' positions and allow more time for follow-up. The heavy focus on foreign policy and immigration largely left out the talking points that Democrats have focused on throughout this year of campaigning: Iraq, climate change, health care and economic burdens on the middle class (although at the end they candidates were given time to discuss what they'd do to improve the economy over the four years of their first term).

Instead of standing at podiums, the seven candidates were seated at a V-shaped table. (Bill Richardson was attending the funeral for a Korean War soldier whose remains he helped repatriate back to the U.S. earlier this year.)

The format largely had the intended effect: The candidates were civil, the discussions were substantive (for the most part) and the moderators did their best to coax straightforward answers from the candidates. And maybe it's just us, but there's something about the radio format that made everyone (well, almost everyone) sound more presidential. Here are some of the highlights:

Continue reading "NPR Debate: The Gloves Come... On"

Posted at 6:25 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, Mike Gravel, WH 2008
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November 09, 2007

WH '08: Don't Quit Your Day Jobs! No, Seriously. Don't.

Many of the candidates for president say that the campaign finance system is in urgent need of repair, yet they are shelving the issue precisely because of said system. As a result, we've got the longest, most expensive and most annoying presidential election maybe ever.

Meanwhile, here inside the Beltway, Congress is still mostly deadlocked on such pressing concerns as the war and health care for disadvantaged children. Hence, disapproval ratings that have managed to exceed those of the pariah in chief, President Bush.

Coincidence?

An astonishing number of sitting lawmakers -- nine as of today -- are crisscrossing the country in their bids for the White House. They certainly can't make every roll call or floor debate, not when there are babies to manhandle, cows made out of butter to admire and Hooters girls to embrace. (Lord knows what's going on here.)

Might all this playing hooky in order to chase a dream that for some is very (very, very) distant explain why Congress doesn't seem to be accomplishing very much?

Continue reading "WH '08: Don't Quit Your Day Jobs! No, Seriously. Don't."

Posted at 1:09 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Congress, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Republicans, Senate, WH 2008
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October 31, 2007

WH '08: Clinton Gets Hazing In Philly Debate

It was ugly, all right. And we're not just talking about the city.

The Democratic presidential candidates chasing Hillary Rodham Clinton sought last night [video] to portray the front-runner as George W. Bush with a better health plan. Did they succeed? And does it matter?

We ask the second question because of how close we are to the primaries and because of how gaping the Big Mo gap's become. Clinton tops second-place Barack Obama by 14 percent and 28 percent per Zogby and CBS News, respectively. Though everyone on stage at Drexel University might come to regret it later in the general election, last night seemed as good a time as any to air out the family business.

By that we mean the internal conversation Democrats have been engaged in practically since Clinton announced she was running for the Senate, a move widely viewed as a springboard to this moment. To the amazement of quite a few old political hands, the former first lady has managed to overcome many of her negatives. In the latest survey, CBS respondents gave her the highest favorability rating among the candidates.

So last night, as expected, Clinton was attacked more pointedly and with more aggression than we've seen in this field. Did anyone manage to land a punch? Yep. Is Clinton down for the count? Nope. Are we going to ride the "Rocky" metaphors for the duration of this post? You bet.

Takeaways from the Dilly in Philly after the jump.

Continue reading "WH '08: Clinton Gets Hazing In Philly Debate"

Posted at 1:49 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, President Bush, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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October 30, 2007

Yo, Hillary! Field Hopes For Front-Runner KO Tonight

Seven of the Democratic presidential contenders descend tonight on America's least-attractive metropolis for what promises to be the ugliest debate of the season.

Both Barack Obama and John Edwards are scrambling to slam the brakes on Hillary Rodham Clinton's runaway lead. With the Iowa caucuses about two months away, double-digit spreads are forcing the rest of the pack to be more forceful and, dare we say, meaner than they've been so far.

The M-word might be unfair, but it's inevitable because of Clinton's gender. Everyone wants to avoid a Rick Lazio moment, in which they attempt to treat her as they would a male candidate and end up coming off as ungentlemanly.

On the other hand, Clinton isn't just any woman. She's in the lead because she's been exuding forcefulness and strength throughout her campaign -- a breakdown in most polls shows she scores highest on national security issues, not personality. It also doesn't hurt that a large swath of the Democratic left is waving the white flag as they signal their support for the former first lady. So Obama, Edwards and the rest -- Christopher Dodd, Joseph Biden, Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich -- will take time to remind primary voters of Clinton's many apparent weaknesses.

Continue reading "Yo, Hillary! Field Hopes For Front-Runner KO Tonight"

Posted at 6:45 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Bill Richardson, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, Michael Mukasey, Mike Gravel, WH 2008
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September 11, 2007

Liveblogging The Senate Iraq Report Hearing

[Senate Armed Services hearing] [Joint House hearing]

1:59. John McCain and Susan Collins are filing in for the Armed Services hearing. C-SPAN expects this round to last about as long. Good lord -- forget the sandwich Biden advised, get these gentlemen an IV. We're going to follow the Armed Services hearing in a new post, and will only report anything new-ish that happens there.

1:56. Biden wrapping up. He lays praise on them before concluding that without details on the final drawdown, there's nothing new here. Good bet many of his fellow panelists feel the same way.

1:53. Happily, he closes with a question nearly everyone in the military wants answered re the deployment schedule. In case anyone's forgotten, the rationale for staying in Iraq seems to have gotten gradually farther away from a national self-interest; meanwhile, American troops are serving repeat and longer tours with less time at home.

Continue reading "Liveblogging The Senate Iraq Report Hearing"

Posted at 2:00 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, David Petraeus, Democrats, Iraq, Joseph Biden, Middle East, Military, President Bush, WH 2008
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September 06, 2007

BREAKING: Dodd Won't Take Money From Criminals

This just in: Democratic presidential candidate Christopher Dodd has made it his campaign's policy not to accept money "raised, solicited, or delivered by fugitives from justice."

That bold and principled stand was announced in a press release earlier this afternoon -- just one day after a judge in California issued an arrest warrant for Hong Kong businessman (and Clinton campaign donor) Norman Hsu when he failed to show up in court.

Coincidence? Of course not.

Continue reading "BREAKING: Dodd Won't Take Money From Criminals"

Posted at 2:15 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Crime, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, WH 2008
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August 21, 2007

Market Crisis: In Bernanke We Trust?

To state the obvious, it's no fun being a new homeowner or investor these days. Today's news that foreclosures are up 93 percent from a year ago says it all. So where do we go from here?

Expect the issue to be harped on -- and distorted -- on the campaign trail. As CNBC's Bob Pisani observes, more than half of the foreclosures are in states that are packed with votes (California, Florida, Michigan, Ohio) and/or are emerging battlegrounds (Nevada, which leads the country with one foreclosure for every 199 households).

Democratic candidates including Christopher Dodd and John Edwards play right into critics' hands when they suggest the federal government throw money at the problem. The few recent polls on the subprime lending meltdown indicate Americans hold lenders and borrowers responsible for the default crisis.

Continue reading "Market Crisis: In Bernanke We Trust?"

Posted at 12:11 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Congress, Democrats, Economy, John Edwards, WH 2008
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August 15, 2007

WH '08: You Don't Have To Go Home, But You Can't Stay Here

The crowded presidential campaign fields can be headache-inducing, and that has some political pundits wishing more candidates would make like Tommy Thompson and just leave.

Today, the National Review's Rich Lowry calls on Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback to pack his bags and go.

Calling Brownback's abortion platform "the very embodiment of a tendency toward impractical perfectionism among pro-lifers," Lowry points to fellow pro-lifer Mike Huckabee's surprise second-place finish at the Iowa Republican Straw Poll. "Huckabee has shined in the debates, is a natural orator, and has considerable crossover appeal to the media. None of this can be said of Brownback," Lowry scoffs.

Continue reading "WH '08: You Don't Have To Go Home, But You Can't Stay Here"

Posted at 4:13 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Cox, Joseph Biden, Mike Gravel, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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August 10, 2007

Queer Eyes On The Candidate Guys

The gay vote will be reliably Democratic for the foreseeable future, but the LGBT community has a real beef with the party: the M word.

That's marriage, of course. Most of the Democratic leadership and all the 2008 presidential front-runners essentially back marriage rights for gays but without the "marriage" part. During last night's Human Rights Campaign/Logo forum, Barack Obama (perhaps unknowingly) summed up that contradiction succinctly. "You know, semantics may be important to some," he said. "From my perspective, what I'm interested in is making sure that those legal rights are available to people."

The question was whether his backing of civil unions but not marriage for gays was tantamount to a separate-but-equal policy. Gay marriage-backers have a point in that criticism, and Obama's response wasn't much of an answer.

Continue reading "Queer Eyes On The Candidate Guys"

Posted at 12:51 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, Gay Rights, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, Mike Gravel, Republicans, WH 2008
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August 08, 2007

A Stumble For Edwards; Plus: Gravel Returns!

We paid only cursory attention to last night's AFL-CIO debate in Chicago because the pander factor tends to skyrocket during niche forums. But that doesn't mean this meeting, or tomorrow's before a gay issues-oriented crowd, isn't significant. Here are a few takeaway moments that may portend where this race is heading.

Does he really feel your pain? Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has been working the union vote practically ever since his bid for the vice presidency came up short in 2004. Ahead of the forum, campaign reporters were describing the debate as Edwards' chance to shine. Well, he didn't.

Continue reading "A Stumble For Edwards; Plus: Gravel Returns!"

Posted at 5:50 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, Mike Gravel, WH 2008
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July 23, 2007

Liveblogging The Democratic Debate: Clinton, Biden Come Out On Top

End note. Overall, a pretty fun evening, insofar as debates this early in the cycle can be fun. We already know that the front-runners are not happy with the debate lineups, but a certain senator from New York would be wise not to look a gift horse in the mouth.

She has come out looking surefooted at every meet-up so far, and that has to help answer all those woman-Bill-Iraq-vote clouds that hang over her head. Obama, meanwhile, was shakier this evening.

Democrats are learning to their frustration that control of Congress isn't enough. Not only do they need a more substantial majority in the Senate, but they need to not have a veto-wielding president standing in their way. In short, Democrats are out to win next year, and a made-for-TV bio and bucketloads of charm may just not cut it in '08.

The surprise of the evening was Biden, who has the resume but lacks the name recognition (and cash) to make headway in this contest. He delivered some of the more memorable lines of the night and, as his camp frequently and loudly points out, has the only detailed exit plan from Iraq. The Kuciniches and Cindy Sheehans of the nation will never accede to this, but the reality of the situation in Iraq is there is no good way to leave, just less bad ones. Both Clinton and Biden took pains to explain that tonight; we'll see if it starts sinking in with the MoveOn segment of the base.

No gaffes, no Ron Paul moments. The best thing the Democrats have going for them is unity on Iraq (more or less), President Bush, and being on the right side of voters on domestic issues. The worst thing they have going for them is probably history. We'll see how the Republicans fare in this format on Sept. 17 -- by which time everyone's political fortunes could be reversed depending on the highly anticipated U.S. report on progress in Iraq, due Sept. 15.

Continue reading "Liveblogging The Democratic Debate: Clinton, Biden Come Out On Top"

Posted at 10:16 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, Mike Gravel, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republicans
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Democratic Debate Preview: Confronting The YouTube Generation

How are you gonna fix Social Security?

How will you make health care available to all?

Can I be your intern?

These are just a few of the questions Americans have posed to the Democratic presidential candidates in tonight's CNN/YouTube debate, which The Gate will be liveblogging.

In some ways, tonight's format, in which candidates must answer 30-second-long video questions selected by CNN, is a natural fit for this slate. The YouTube generation tends to skew young and anti-Bush -- so much so that unhappy conservatives have started a rival site.

There's an argument to be made that the 2008 presidential race is the Democrats' to lose. But none of the candidates -- and that includes you, Senator Clinton -- should expect a free ride to the White House. The answer to that riddle lies on Capitol Hill.

Continue reading "Democratic Debate Preview: Confronting The YouTube Generation"

Posted at 5:14 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, WH 2008
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June 08, 2007

Dodd: Take That, MSM!

It's customary for campaign underdogs to complain about things like being left out of polls, debates and press coverage. But with the 2008 election's accelerated primary schedule expected to heavily favor the big shots, the little guys are doing more than just complain when they feel slighted by The Man. They are taking matters into their own hands.

Last month, GOP businessman John Cox attempted to sue FOX News Channel and the South Carolina Republican Party over his exclusion from a televised primary debate. Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Mike Gravel, meanwhile, have managed to squeeze enough controversy out of their sparse debate appearances to become the favorite underdogs of their respective races. Anyone who has ever written anything less than favorable about either candidate knows that they command a rabid legion of fans on the Web.

And then there's Christopher Dodd. The senior senator from Connecticut had a fairly impressive first quarter (subscription) in terms of fundraising and has been trying to raise his profile through advertising. Still, Dodd has barely moved in the polls since entering the race and failed to make a splashy impression in the first couple of debates.

Now, frustrated by the format CNN adopted in the recent New Hampshire debates, the Dodd camp is hitting back with a new feature on its Web site.

Continue reading "Dodd: Take That, MSM!"

Posted at 1:30 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, John Cox, Media, WH 2008
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June 04, 2007

Talking Tough On Iraq In New Hampshire

Iraq was the prevailing issue in Sunday night's Democratic debate at St. Anselm College in New Hampshire, the second among Democratic presidential hopefuls so far this cycle.

In the otherwise tame debate, tension mounted when former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards sought to distinguish himself as the most vocal opponent of the Iraq war. Initially trying not to name names, Edwards scolded Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama for casting their latest votes against the Iraq funding bill quietly rather than leading the charge on the issue.

Obama replied that Edwards was four-and-a-half years late in his crusade against the war and reiterated that he himself was opposed to the war from the start. Edwards did give Obama credit for that. Clinton later pointed out that while the differences between the Democratic candidates are "minor," the differences between the Democratic field and the Republican contenders for the White House are "major." Most of the Democrats agreed that in general, they are united in the effort to end the war.

Continue reading "Talking Tough On Iraq In New Hampshire"

Posted at 11:09 AM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, WH 2008
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June 01, 2007

Ads Zero In On Democratic Debate

One day after Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd (D) sought to shift the political dialogue in the early primary states from Iraq to the environment, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson joined his ranks.

Ahead of Sunday's Democratic presidential debate in New Hampshire, both candidates have new ads touting themselves as leaders in the fight against global warming. Dodd launched his forward-looking spot, which promotes his plan to curb carbon emissions, on Hawkeye and Granite State airwaves on Thursday.

Richardson's newest ad highlights his past achievements as governor. Especially prevalent in the spot are the strides he says New Mexico has made in developing renewable energy.

The Republican National Committee also put in its two pre-debate cents with a new radio ad in New Hampshire. The spot, which can be heard on the RNC Web site, features a veteran calling out Barack Obama, Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards by name and asking the candidates to defend their declarations of support for the troops.

See Ad Spotlight (subscription) on Monday at noon EDT for more on these spots.

Posted at 4:45 PM
Posted to: Bill Richardson, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Climate Change, Democrats, WH 2008
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May 14, 2007

WH 2008: Careful, Folks...

Remember that old saw about people in glass houses?

Last week, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama hit Detroit automakers where they lived -- literally -- which, as Newsweek's Keith Naughton noted, didn't exactly endear the home of the Big Three to the presidential hopeful. Now, it seems, Obama forgot one minor detail before he went up in front of the Detroit Economic Club to talk about reducing fuel emissions.

Start driving a hybrid car.

Continue reading "WH 2008: Careful, Folks..."

Posted at 4:47 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Republicans, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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