January 19, 2008

Super Saturday I: McCain Wins S.C. Primary In Nail-Biter

UPDATED.

Now you may call it a comeback: John McCain has taken the South Carolina Republican primary.

McCain pulled out a narrow victory over Mike Huckabee, 33 percent to 30 percent. Fred Thompson (16 percent) and Mitt Romney (15 percent) basically tied for third.

"You know, it took us a while, but what's eight years among friends?" McCain quipped in his trademark self-deprecating manner, referencing his South Carolina loss to President Bush in 2000. "As I have said before, I know that before I can win your vote, I must earn your respect. And the only way I know how to do that is by being honest with you. I have tried to do that throughout this campaign, and to put my trust in your willingness to give me your fair consideration. So far, it seems to be working out just fine," he continued, in a room filled with ecstatic volunteers and supporters who minutes before had been chanting "Mac is back! Mac is back!"

McCain also made sure to note -- or gloat, perhaps -- that the chattering classes had declared his campaign DOA just months ago. "I am aware that for the last 28 years, the winner of the South Carolina primary has been the nominee of our party. We have a ways to go, of course," he said. "There are some tough contests ahead, starting tomorrow in the state of Florida. But, my friends, we are well on our way tonight. And I feel very good about our chances."

The outcome in South Carolina tonight is meaningful for at least two big reasons. One is that neither Huckabee nor McCain directly engaged in a negative way in a state infamous for its down-and-dirty politics.

Continue reading "Super Saturday I: McCain Wins S.C. Primary In Nail-Biter"

Posted at 10:05 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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January 18, 2008

Can This Brand Be Saved?

It's been one year since the unofficial kickoff of the 2008 presidential campaigns, and the state of play for the Republican nomination contest is remarkable both for what has changed and what hasn't.

Most obviously different are the front-runners. Mike Huckabee, nationally unknown this time in 2007, now rides comfortably in the top tier. He's always had the goods to do well in this campaign but faced long odds against better-funded celebrity candidates.

Both he and John McCain have smashed pundits' expectations and are now enjoying the attention and funding that front-runner status guarantees. But in many ways, the game for the Republicans hasn't changed one bit. This field still lacks a candidate who is all things to all GOP voters. The party isn't coalescing around one or two choices, as is happening in the Democratic race. Rather, the party is being divvied up like a pie, with each candidate representing just a slice of the big-picture GOP platform.

The primary vote is so fractured, in fact, that a brokered convention actually seems a distinct possibility. Yeah, yeah, we hear that every other cycle. Only, the longer you examine the differences among Huckabee, McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, the more completely, utterly irreconcilable those differences seem. MSNBC's Chris Matthews is taking even more heat this week for a comparison he made between the GOP and Iraq's warring factions. Matthews may have stumbled through that analogy rather inelegantly, but he is on to something.

Continue reading "Can This Brand Be Saved?"

Posted at 3:25 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain, Karl Rove, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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January 15, 2008

Will Dennis Menace MSNBC's Vegas Debate?

UPDATED.

No, he won't. Keith Olbermann just reported that Nevada's Supreme Court has overruled a lower-court judge in favor of MSNBC's decision to exclude Dennis Kucinich from tonight's debate.

On the merits alone, it looked like the network would have to reinvite Kucinich in order to air the Democratic candidates forum at 9 p.m. EST as scheduled.

The Ohio rep sued parent network NBC earlier for excluding him from the Las Vegas debate. District Court Judge Charles Thompson ruled in Kucinich's favor and told the Peacock Network that he would order an injunction stopping the debate if Kucinich was not included.

NBC appealed Thompson's decision to Nevada's Supreme Court. With less than an hour to go before showtime, the court announced that MSNBC had not breached its contract when it disinvited Kucinich from the debate.

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Posted at 8:13 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, Duncan Hunter, John Edwards, Republicans, Ron Paul, WH 2008
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January 07, 2008

N.H. Countdown: Of Knuckleheads, Huckaburgers & Crybabies

As much as you might resent the presidential candidates for forcing you to confront the 2008 election so early, it's hard not to feel a little sorry for them. Most are sleep-deprived and anxious just four days after the Iowa caucuses, the results of which forced some candidates to retune their campaign strategies on the run.

This is especially true for Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is locked in a super-tight battle for first in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary, polls released today show. Her decisive loss to Barack Obama in Iowa seemed to send her camp into a tailspin. There are strong hints that if she is humiliated in the Granite State, a personnel shuffle will follow.

A mixture of anxiety, adrenaline and sheer physical exhaustion may explain why we've seen such a range of emotions from Clinton this week. First, she feistily returned fire at rivals Obama and John Edwards at the ABC/Facebook debate on Saturday -- a performance that indicated she wasn't going to take the onslaught of attacks lying down.

An uncharacteristically emotional moment for her today is sucking up most of the oxygen in coverage of New Hampshire. That she seemed to choke up when asked about the hardships of campaigning by a voter raises questions about her gender again. Those questions have distracted the media before, but the Clinton Crying story comes less than 24 hours before Granite Staters go to the polls.

Continue reading "N.H. Countdown: Of Knuckleheads, Huckaburgers & Crybabies"

Posted at 6:35 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Campaigns, Democrats, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Media, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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January 06, 2008

Liveblogging the FOX Republican Roundtable -- Minus Ron Paul

9:37. It's over. If anyone's feelings were hurt tonight, like Hillary Rodham Clinton's were yesterday, it's Mitt Romney. He seemed to be running an impeccable campaign, and that's part of the problem. Schadenfreude is a female dog, as he is learning all too well.

As we said before, the GOP primary is shaping to be a real knife-fight between Romney and McCain. Will Huckabee deliver another surprise? The ground seems to be shifting yet again in the Republican nomination battle, but with the primaries so front-loaded voters have little time to carefully weigh their options. If there is buyer's remorse come spring, we'll hear a lot of calls for shaking up the primary calendar for 2012.

Check back tomorrow for a roundup of reaction to tonight's forum and the ones ABC held last night. Good night.

9:30. Why are you best qualified to go to the general?

Giuliani: I'm not perfect, but I can solve problems.

Thompson: I've never lost an election. OK, so I haven't run in many elections...

Huckabee: I can relate to ordinary, hardworking Americans.

Romney: "Chris, I got in this race because my family told me I ought to." [ed: Really??]

McCain: I can re-energize the Republican base. And I love New Hampshire!

Continue reading "Liveblogging the FOX Republican Roundtable -- Minus Ron Paul"

Posted at 9:37 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, WH 2008
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December 12, 2007

Ohthankgod: Liveblogging The Last GOP Debate Of 2007

4:37. In a post-debate interview on CNN, Huckabee said he apologized to Romney for the Jesus/devil remark while sticking to his earlier insistence that the remark had been taken out of context.

"He was gracious," Huckabee said of Romney's response.

There's nothing in the Times mag feature, by the way, to suggest Huckabee meant anything by that comment beyond an expression of genuine curiosity. Andrew Sullivan found background for the question on the LDS Web site. Anyone who used to go to Sunday school knows that according to the Bible Satan/Lucifer/the devil was a fallen angel. Before he went evil he was just a regular angel, and in that sense, according to LDS, the devil and Jesus are brothers of a kind. OK, that's enough theology from me.

3:50. It's over, and insane as it sounds it feels too soon. That's a product of there having been a few too many non-contenders on the stage, no doubt.

Did uncommitted Iowans get what they needed here? Depends on whom they're leaning toward. Nothing bad happened to Huckabee, which is exactly what he needed as his viability star rises. Tancredo tried to portray Huck as an immigration flip-flopper, but... he's Tancredo. Lucky for Huckabee, Giuliani only goes there at grave risk to himself.

Romney didn't get a chance to zing Huckabee, but with that ad on the air he may not have needed to. And Huckabee was not asked about that Jesus/devil comment or his own attack-ish ad. The absence of theology in this debate may not be what some campaign prognosticators wanted, but it was classy, for immediate lack of a better word.

Continue reading "Ohthankgod: Liveblogging The Last GOP Debate Of 2007"

Posted at 4:37 PM
Posted to: Alan Keyes, Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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December 10, 2007

Univision Debate Postmortem: The Six Amigos (Plus Ron Paul)

So, our liveblog effort was a bust thanks to my lack of high-tech closed-captioning, but it doesn't look as if we missed a whole lot in the way of fireworks. Because the immigration debate has been alienating Latino voters, it was in everyone's interest last night to promote Brand GOP (as opposed to Brand Me). Most of the seven candidates present did that, but at the expense of specifics.

In other words, this was a very broad-strokes debate. The Republican candidates have been vying for months to prove just how tough they can be on closing the borders, etc., which is sort of mandatory, as they're trying to win over mostly white, conservative base voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Then they found themselves in Miami last night before a sea of Latino Americans -- the fastest-growing bloc of voters in the nation. In order to hew to what they'd been saying about immigration reform up until last night, some of which may not have gone over well in this crowd, they had to fiddle with their rhetoric.

That translated to lots of talk of freedom and no trading barbs on sanctuary cities or sanctuary mansions. The central mission was to not tick anyone off, and on that score they probably succeeded.

Continue reading "Univision Debate Postmortem: The Six Amigos (Plus Ron Paul)"

Posted at 7:36 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Immigration, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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December 09, 2007

Liveblogging The Univision Republican Debate

7:46. Just had to update with this: LOTS of applause in this crowd for a question about Hugo Chavez, Washington's least favorite South American leader. Have no idea what question was posed to Paul w/r/t to Chavez, but his response inspires waves and waves of boos. What just happened here? Tune in tomorrow to find out!

7:28. Well, I got my closed captioning to work -- and the captions are en Espanol. Sorry, readers, but looks like I'm going to have to abort this mission. Truly a first in Gate history.

That said, I am just dumbfounded that the producers would change the format of the Republican debate in such a way that many non-Spanish-speaking Americans would not be able to tune in. There are so many questions about where some of these candidates -- Romney, Giuliani -- really are on immigration reform. That isn't the case in the much more unified Democratic field -- questions about driver's licenses notwithstanding.

We'll have a roundup of reaction to the debate tomorrow. Daily Kos has a Spanish-speaker watching; you can check out their (hotly partisan) liveblog coverage here. The Corner was also stymied in its coverage attempt. Somewhere, Tom Tancredo is doing la cucaracha in front of a TV set.

Apologies again. See you all tomorrow.

Continue reading "Liveblogging The Univision Republican Debate"

Posted at 7:46 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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November 28, 2007

Liveblogging The CNN/YouTube Republican Debate

End note. I rode CNN pretty hard earlier, but overall this was a very good forum for these candidates. The producers did a better job than last time at picking interesting and varied questions (with the requisite gotchas, of course), and the holdouts for facing the YouTube Generation -- Romney, Giuliani -- probably did themselves a favor by deciding to show up.

What will get the most attention tomorrow is the knife-fight between Giuilani and Romney that kicked things off. Their cases against each other -- that Giuliani ran a liberal government in a crazy city and that Romney is a political changeling who accomplished little as governor -- went public only recently, and tonight is the first time we saw the candidates make their arguments mano a mano. Their squabbling produced a good moment for Thompson, who got to play the grown-up in the room as he methodically parsed what was wrong with both their records on immigration.

But as those anti-Huckabee press releases indicate, Thompson's camp realizes their man is in trouble. The "Law & Order" star was the one who was supposed to swoop in and rescue stranded GOP voters; now it looks like Huckabee's doing the rescuing, among evangelical Iowans, anyway.

Continue reading "Liveblogging The CNN/YouTube Republican Debate"

Posted at 11:22 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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September 28, 2007

Race & The GOP: Six Out Of 10 Ain't Bad

The highly anticipated season premiere of "Grey's Anatomy" opened
with --

Oops, wrong post.

In case you missed it, and you probably did, there was a Republican presidential debate last night at Morgan State University in Baltimore. As with the Democrats' turn in June, radio and talk-show host Tavis Smiley was on hand to host the All-American Presidential Forum on PBS before a mostly black audience on the historically black campus.

What was different this time around? The four empty podiums on stage.

Out of the belief that the gains made by the GOP under President Bush's leadership have been hopelessly eroded (by President Bush's leadership), or the belief that with independents out of reach, their socially conservative, mostly white base is more crucial than ever, front-runners Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson skipped the event.

The six candidates chasing them were smart enough to take advantage.

Continue reading "Race & The GOP: Six Out Of 10 Ain't Bad"

Posted at 9:00 AM
Posted to: Alan Keyes, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, President Bush, Race, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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September 27, 2007

Who's Afraid Of Tavis Smiley?

Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are, apparently.

The leading Republican presidential candidates cited "scheduling conflicts" as their reason for skipping tonight's All-American Presidential Forum on PBS.

"I'm puzzled by their decision. I can't speak for them. I think it's a mistake," said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earlier this week.

President Bush also weighed in on the matter last week: "My advice to whoever will be our nominee is to reach out to the African-American community as well as other communities, because I believe we've got a very strong record when it comes to" issues affecting them.

Continue reading "Who's Afraid Of Tavis Smiley?"

Posted at 5:14 PM
Posted to: Alan Keyes, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, President Bush, Race, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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August 15, 2007

WH '08: You Don't Have To Go Home, But You Can't Stay Here

The crowded presidential campaign fields can be headache-inducing, and that has some political pundits wishing more candidates would make like Tommy Thompson and just leave.

Today, the National Review's Rich Lowry calls on Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback to pack his bags and go.

Calling Brownback's abortion platform "the very embodiment of a tendency toward impractical perfectionism among pro-lifers," Lowry points to fellow pro-lifer Mike Huckabee's surprise second-place finish at the Iowa Republican Straw Poll. "Huckabee has shined in the debates, is a natural orator, and has considerable crossover appeal to the media. None of this can be said of Brownback," Lowry scoffs.

Continue reading "WH '08: You Don't Have To Go Home, But You Can't Stay Here"

Posted at 4:13 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Dennis Kucinich, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Cox, Joseph Biden, Mike Gravel, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, WH 2008
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July 27, 2007

We Want A GOP YouTube Debate!

The Gate tries very hard to not cross the "advocacy" line, but some recent (un)developments have forced us to take a stand.

We want a Republican YouTube debate.

No, the format of Monday's Democratic forum wasn't "revolutionary," as CNN would have you believe, but it was both informative and entertaining. The kids need a little cheese sauce with their broccoli sometimes, and we bet that the YouTube format had them more engaged than in any of the previous face-offs.

So listen, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney and Tom Tancredo: Sign on to the Sept. 17 CNN/YouTube debate, already.

We get that campaign time is an increasingly precious commodity. Republicans, not to mention the rest of the country, aren't really hot on any of you right now. But how could taking occasionally quirky questions from real-live Americans hurt? If anything, you get a platform on which to let your good humor and personality shine. We urge you to seize this opportunity.

Note that it's a group of Republicans who are circulating a petition asking you to reconsider. Conservatives ridiculed Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards for skipping the planned FOX News Democratic debate. Gentleman, do not cut and run from this chance to show Americans a) that you are running for president (a lot of them don't know this yet) and b) that you are not afraid of the occasional curveball. Please follow Tommy Thompson's lead and show us you're not scared of a talking snowman.

The Gate isn't signing any petitions for obvious reasons, but we encourage our readers to send this along: http://www.savethedebate.com/.

-JANE ROH

Graphic: Reuben Dalke

Posted at 4:55 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Democrats, Duncan Hunter, Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, WH 2008
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July 03, 2007

Hunter: Ann Coulter Approaching 'Great American' Status

Looks like the Edwardses aren't the only ones (allegedly) turning to Ann Coulter for a little media attention.

Duncan Hunter, one of the lesser-known GOP presidential candidates, sought to capture a bit of Coulter stardust last night on MSNBC's "Hardball." When asked to weigh in on the recent on-air spat between Coulter and Elizabeth Edwards, wife of Democratic candidate John Edwards, Hunter didn't shy away from professing his love for the acerbic conservative commentator.

"In this case, Ann Coulter is a very articulate spokeswoman for the conservative view," Hunter gushed. With a wink, he continued, "But I think, especially since Ann Coulter said nice things about me, I think she's closely approaching that level of being a great American."

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Posted at 1:50 PM
Posted to: Ann Coulter, Duncan Hunter
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June 06, 2007

GOP Debate: Who's Afraid Of Fred Thompson?

Most everyone tuning in to last night's CNN-sponsored Republican forum in New Hampshire already had him on their minds, so former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson did us all a favor by calling out the ghost at the very beginning: "My name is Thompson, Tommy. I’m the candidate, not the actor."

The actor Thompson being, of course, Fred Thompson -- star of "In The Line Of Fire," "Law and Order," and lately, the fevered dreams of many a GOP primary voter. Unfortunately for Tommy Thompson, that joke may have backfired, as National Review's Katherine Jean Lopez points out. By the time the next Republican debate arrives in August, it's a safe bet more than one of the third tier -- Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul -- will have dropped out.

Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, by contrast, have a better chance of hanging in as the two candidates who represent the hard right on immigration reform. Both have passionate followings, and the latest skirmish in the Senate over a compromise overhaul is only angering their supporters.

Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney may be the only sure bets to last through the summer. But purity is still an issue for this party, more so, arguably, than for the Democrats, and none of these men should count on an easy ride to the primaries.

Continue reading "GOP Debate: Who's Afraid Of Fred Thompson?"

Posted at 12:53 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, Jim Gilmore, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, WH 2008
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May 15, 2007

Liveblogging The 2nd GOP Debate

UPDATED.

End note. Tonight's debate felt more substantive than the last meeting of the Republican 10. Candidates got the same 30 seconds or so to answer questions, but there were fewer questions this time, which made the pacing seem more orderly. The questions themselves were also all serious, more or less -- no one got lobbed with an out-of-left-field query (unlike last time around).

Quite a few of the candidates seem to have learned something from McCain. There were more follow-them-to-the-gates-of-hell type responses on terrorism tonight. But no one capped it with a weird, triumphant smile. In fact, we didn't detect any gaffes at all. (If you think Ron Paul's performance qualifies as a gaffe -- you just don't know Ron Paul.)

Overall, the field feels more set in stone than it did before. Of the lower-tier contenders, Gilmore, Huckabee and Tancredo asserted themselves the most, but probably not in a way that will set their campaigns on fire. Thompson was oddly quiet tonight, as was Brownback.

Mercifully, the next debate, this time among the Democrats, is nearly three weeks away. And, most everyone in Washington hopes, a wartime appropriations bill will make it out of Congress and past the president's desk by then. In the time since the debate began tonight, the Pentagon announced the deaths of two more soldiers, one in Iraq and one in Pakistan. Clocks are ticking all around. And no one on that stage knows this more than the guys not named Giuliani or McCain.

FOXNews.com is streaming its debate analysis. See Captain's Quarters, The Caucus, The Corner and The Fix for their takes on the debate.

10:34. And it's over. Hunter had just gotten a chance to sound the alarm on China, his other pet issue after immigration. The center of gravity in the 2008 election will likely remain the Iraq war, and there's little he and other candidates can do about that. But how much longer can the front-runners campaign on Iraq and fiscal policy alone? Shouldn't they have to give serious thought to, say, China's growing economic influence and military growth as well?

Continue reading "Liveblogging The 2nd GOP Debate"

Posted at 8:37 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Chuck Hagel, Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, WH 2008
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GOP Debate Preview: Take Two

Tonight's FOX News-sponsored debate of the Republican presidential candidates in South Carolina comes less than two weeks after their first nationally televised debate in California. And not one of the hopefuls has reason to complain that their second meeting has come so quickly. (The Gate will be liveblogging the action at 8:45 p.m. EDT.)

The rapid-fire pace of questions at the previous forum, sponsored by MSNBC and the Politico, did not allow time for thoughtful responses, much less clarification of the occasional fumbled answer. Just ask former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, who seemed to support businesses that fire employees for being gay, and has been explaining the gaffe (a busted hearing aid, a bulging bladder) ever since.

Also see: Rudy Giuliani. The pro-choice former mayor of New York told moderator Chris Matthews that he would be just fine with Roe v. Wade being overturned, just so long as it was done based on "strict constructionist" principles. Constitutional lawyers everywhere scratched their heads, and Giuliani's rivals smelled the blood of a flip-flopper in the water. The Gate spoke with Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella the Monday following the May 3 meet-up. After some prodding, she said that Giuliani shares a fairly widespread belief (in legal academia, anyway) that Roe was poorly decided, and that a Federalist approach may have been preferable.

Continue reading "GOP Debate Preview: Take Two"

Posted at 7:31 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson, WH 2008
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