February 08, 2008
McCain & Conservatives: It's Not Love, But It'll Do
Conservative activists still haven't forgiven John McCain for thumbing his nose at them in 2000, when he challenged their candidate, George W. Bush, for the Republican nomination. That's evident this week, as thousands of the conservative grassroots convene at the Omni Shoreham Hotel in Washington for the 2008 Conservative Political Action Conference.
Eleven months ago, as the 2008 presidential race was kicking into gear, there was zero support for McCain at CPAC. Though Mitt Romney emerged the CPAC straw poll winner, support for him at the time seemed to be borne of resignation. The conservative base was agonizing over its choices for the nominee, and at its dim hopes of hanging on to the White House in the wake of a tremendously unpopular Republican presidency. The ennui prompted Mike Huckabee to quip that the conference ought to be renamed, "Dude, where's my candidate?"
With no offense intended to Huckabee, who still remains in this contest, it's now pretty clear that, dude, your candidate is John McCain.
"I hope you will pardon my absence last year, and understand that I intended no personal insult to any of you. I was merely preoccupied with the business of trying to escape the distinction of preseason front-runner for the Republican nomination which, I'm sure some of you observed, I managed to do in fairly short order," McCain said at the conference yesterday, using humor as he often does to defuse an awkward situation.
It worked, and not just because the room was packed with the McCainiacs who were totally absent at last year's CPAC. Just hours before, Mitt Romney informed attendees he was dropping out of the race. Romney supporters were also on hand to hear from McCain, in an irony-laden, fresh-start introduction to the GOP's presumptive nominee.
Continue reading "McCain & Conservatives: It's Not Love, But It'll Do"
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January 22, 2008
Fred Thompson Bows Out; Will He Endorse McCain?
UPDATED.
After running what often seemed a half-hearted campaign for the presidency, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is dropping out of the race for the Republican nomination.
"Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for president of the United States," Thompson said in a brief, 45-word press statement. "I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."
His campaign delivered the same message to his supporters on the popular social networking site Facebook, though with this added note: "Thanks for your support, everyone."
Thompson opted for an exit not typical for major presidential candidates, most of whom choose to deliver the news that they are ending their bids in a personal address to the volunteers and supporters who've spent months toiling on their behalf. Saturday night, after the results of the South Carolina Republican primary showed he'd finished a negligible third, would have been a prime opportunity to have done so.
Many expected Thompson to drop out that night if he did not place at least second. Instead, he joked that he still might win and gave no indication one way or another about the future of his campaign.
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January 19, 2008
Super Saturday I: McCain Wins S.C. Primary In Nail-Biter
UPDATED.
Now you may call it a comeback: John McCain has taken the South Carolina Republican primary.
McCain pulled out a narrow victory over Mike Huckabee, 33 percent to 30 percent. Fred Thompson (16 percent) and Mitt Romney (15 percent) basically tied for third.
"You know, it took us a while, but what's eight years among friends?" McCain quipped in his trademark self-deprecating manner, referencing his South Carolina loss to President Bush in 2000. "As I have said before, I know that before I can win your vote, I must earn your respect. And the only way I know how to do that is by being honest with you. I have tried to do that throughout this campaign, and to put my trust in your willingness to give me your fair consideration. So far, it seems to be working out just fine," he continued, in a room filled with ecstatic volunteers and supporters who minutes before had been chanting "Mac is back! Mac is back!"
McCain also made sure to note -- or gloat, perhaps -- that the chattering classes had declared his campaign DOA just months ago. "I am aware that for the last 28 years, the winner of the South Carolina primary has been the nominee of our party. We have a ways to go, of course," he said. "There are some tough contests ahead, starting tomorrow in the state of Florida. But, my friends, we are well on our way tonight. And I feel very good about our chances."
The outcome in South Carolina tonight is meaningful for at least two big reasons. One is that neither Huckabee nor McCain directly engaged in a negative way in a state infamous for its down-and-dirty politics.
Continue reading "Super Saturday I: McCain Wins S.C. Primary In Nail-Biter"
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January 18, 2008
Can This Brand Be Saved?
It's been one year since the unofficial kickoff of the 2008 presidential campaigns, and the state of play for the Republican nomination contest is remarkable both for what has changed and what hasn't.
Most obviously different are the front-runners. Mike Huckabee, nationally unknown this time in 2007, now rides comfortably in the top tier. He's always had the goods to do well in this campaign but faced long odds against better-funded celebrity candidates.
Both he and John McCain have smashed pundits' expectations and are now enjoying the attention and funding that front-runner status guarantees. But in many ways, the game for the Republicans hasn't changed one bit. This field still lacks a candidate who is all things to all GOP voters. The party isn't coalescing around one or two choices, as is happening in the Democratic race. Rather, the party is being divvied up like a pie, with each candidate representing just a slice of the big-picture GOP platform.
The primary vote is so fractured, in fact, that a brokered convention actually seems a distinct possibility. Yeah, yeah, we hear that every other cycle. Only, the longer you examine the differences among Huckabee, McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, the more completely, utterly irreconcilable those differences seem. MSNBC's Chris Matthews is taking even more heat this week for a comparison he made between the GOP and Iraq's warring factions. Matthews may have stumbled through that analogy rather inelegantly, but he is on to something.
Continue reading "Can This Brand Be Saved?"
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January 09, 2008
WH '08: Don't (!!!) Call It A Comeback
"Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice," a relieved and triumphant Hillary Rodham Clinton told a roaring crowd of supporters last night.
Today's campaign news cycle is all about how the media and pundits boo-boo'd so badly, having declared Clinton's campaign DOA heading into the New Hampshire primary and John McCain out for the count for the last six months running. There's a sea of red faces out there but, we contend, for the wrong reason.
Last we checked, journalism was about reporting facts, not predicting them. Some amount of prognostication can be quite useful for contextualizing the news. But when so many talking heads call a close contest well before the first vote tallies come in, what's the point of that, exactly? It seems as if egos, and not the public, are the ones getting served.
Leave it to quirky, independent-minded Granite Staters to tell the rest of the country: Not so fast.
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January 07, 2008
N.H. Countdown: Of Knuckleheads, Huckaburgers & Crybabies
As much as you might resent the presidential candidates for forcing you to confront the 2008 election so early, it's hard not to feel a little sorry for them. Most are sleep-deprived and anxious just four days after the Iowa caucuses, the results of which forced some candidates to retune their campaign strategies on the run.
This is especially true for Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is locked in a super-tight battle for first in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary, polls released today show. Her decisive loss to Barack Obama in Iowa seemed to send her camp into a tailspin. There are strong hints that if she is humiliated in the Granite State, a personnel shuffle will follow.
A mixture of anxiety, adrenaline and sheer physical exhaustion may explain why we've seen such a range of emotions from Clinton this week. First, she feistily returned fire at rivals Obama and John Edwards at the ABC/Facebook debate on Saturday -- a performance that indicated she wasn't going to take the onslaught of attacks lying down.
An uncharacteristically emotional moment for her today is sucking up most of the oxygen in coverage of New Hampshire. That she seemed to choke up when asked about the hardships of campaigning by a voter raises questions about her gender again. Those questions have distracted the media before, but the Clinton Crying story comes less than 24 hours before Granite Staters go to the polls.
Continue reading "N.H. Countdown: Of Knuckleheads, Huckaburgers & Crybabies"
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January 06, 2008
Liveblogging the FOX Republican Roundtable -- Minus Ron Paul
9:37. It's over. If anyone's feelings were hurt tonight, like Hillary Rodham Clinton's were yesterday, it's Mitt Romney. He seemed to be running an impeccable campaign, and that's part of the problem. Schadenfreude is a female dog, as he is learning all too well.
As we said before, the GOP primary is shaping to be a real knife-fight between Romney and McCain. Will Huckabee deliver another surprise? The ground seems to be shifting yet again in the Republican nomination battle, but with the primaries so front-loaded voters have little time to carefully weigh their options. If there is buyer's remorse come spring, we'll hear a lot of calls for shaking up the primary calendar for 2012.
Check back tomorrow for a roundup of reaction to tonight's forum and the ones ABC held last night. Good night.
9:30. Why are you best qualified to go to the general?
Giuliani: I'm not perfect, but I can solve problems.
Thompson: I've never lost an election. OK, so I haven't run in many elections...
Huckabee: I can relate to ordinary, hardworking Americans.
Romney: "Chris, I got in this race because my family told me I ought to." [ed: Really??]
McCain: I can re-energize the Republican base. And I love New Hampshire!
Continue reading "Liveblogging the FOX Republican Roundtable -- Minus Ron Paul"
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January 04, 2008
Obama & Huckabee Win Iowa; Biden & Dodd Exit Race
Last night's Iowa caucuses created two decisive winners in the first-in-the-nation presidential nominating contest and two new casualties in the overall race.
With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Barack Obama pulled ahead of the Democratic pack with 38 percent of the vote, followed by John Edwards in second with 30 percent and Hillary Rodham Clinton close behind at 29 percent.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee completed his ascent from relative obscurity just a few months ago to capture first place with 34 percent of the vote, with 96 percent of precincts reporting. Mitt Romney came in second with 25 percent, and Fred Thompson eked out a third-place finish with 13 percent, dispelling (for now) recent rumors that he could soon drop out of the race. John McCain tied Thompson for third, with Ron Paul close behind at 10 percent.
Meanwhile, two other candidates did bid their presidential ambitions adieu last night. Democratic Sens. Joseph Biden and Christopher Dodd announced they were abandoning their bids after the former drew only 1 percent of the vote in Iowa and the latter garnered even less.
If you're all Iowa-ed out, NationalJournal.com's Ronald Brownstein looks ahead to the New Hampshire contest coming up on Tuesday. NationalJournal.com also has the overall results for the Democratic and Republican caucuses, and the Des Moines Register breaks down the results by county. See On Call for more reactions and details from Iowa, and check back with The Gate later today for more analysis.
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December 20, 2007
Tancredo Drops Out: The Exit Interview
UPDATED.
Neither FOX nor MSNBC bothered to cover Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo's announcement earlier today that he was dropping out of the race for the White House. CNN went to it at first, then cut away so the anchor could discuss the pronunciation of the congressman's surname. This, despite the pivotal role he has played in this cycle's Republican nomination battle.
Reached by phone at his Des Moines hotel room, Tancredo sounded relaxed and content with his decision to close shop. His candidacy, after all, was from the beginning about holding the big-name guys to account on illegal immigration.
"I have dedicated 10 years of my public life to warning the nation of the perilous consequences of massive, uncontrolled illegal immigration," Tancredo told supporters at a press conference this afternoon. "This message unfortunately has fallen on deaf ears in the highest office in the land. Without a president who is committed to securing the nation, we will always remain in jeopardy."
Tancredo's announcement had been expected since yesterday. He said the urgency he felt on illegal immigration compelled him to launch his bid despite what "we knew at the time were incredibly long odds." A nationally obscure figure best known among anti-immigration hardliners, Tancredo said in April that he was entering the race because of "the field, the field."
More on what he told us about Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson after the jump.
Continue reading "Tancredo Drops Out: The Exit Interview"
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December 12, 2007
Ohthankgod: Liveblogging The Last GOP Debate Of 2007
4:37. In a post-debate interview on CNN, Huckabee said he apologized to Romney for the Jesus/devil remark while sticking to his earlier insistence that the remark had been taken out of context.
"He was gracious," Huckabee said of Romney's response.
There's nothing in the Times mag feature, by the way, to suggest Huckabee meant anything by that comment beyond an expression of genuine curiosity. Andrew Sullivan found background for the question on the LDS Web site. Anyone who used to go to Sunday school knows that according to the Bible Satan/Lucifer/the devil was a fallen angel. Before he went evil he was just a regular angel, and in that sense, according to LDS, the devil and Jesus are brothers of a kind. OK, that's enough theology from me.
3:50. It's over, and insane as it sounds it feels too soon. That's a product of there having been a few too many non-contenders on the stage, no doubt.
Did uncommitted Iowans get what they needed here? Depends on whom they're leaning toward. Nothing bad happened to Huckabee, which is exactly what he needed as his viability star rises. Tancredo tried to portray Huck as an immigration flip-flopper, but... he's Tancredo. Lucky for Huckabee, Giuliani only goes there at grave risk to himself.
Romney didn't get a chance to zing Huckabee, but with that ad on the air he may not have needed to. And Huckabee was not asked about that Jesus/devil comment or his own attack-ish ad. The absence of theology in this debate may not be what some campaign prognosticators wanted, but it was classy, for immediate lack of a better word.
Continue reading "Ohthankgod: Liveblogging The Last GOP Debate Of 2007"
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December 10, 2007
Univision Debate Postmortem: The Six Amigos (Plus Ron Paul)
So, our liveblog effort was a bust thanks to my lack of high-tech closed-captioning, but it doesn't look as if we missed a whole lot in the way of fireworks. Because the immigration debate has been alienating Latino voters, it was in everyone's interest last night to promote Brand GOP (as opposed to Brand Me). Most of the seven candidates present did that, but at the expense of specifics.
In other words, this was a very broad-strokes debate. The Republican candidates have been vying for months to prove just how tough they can be on closing the borders, etc., which is sort of mandatory, as they're trying to win over mostly white, conservative base voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Then they found themselves in Miami last night before a sea of Latino Americans -- the fastest-growing bloc of voters in the nation. In order to hew to what they'd been saying about immigration reform up until last night, some of which may not have gone over well in this crowd, they had to fiddle with their rhetoric.
That translated to lots of talk of freedom and no trading barbs on sanctuary cities or sanctuary mansions. The central mission was to not tick anyone off, and on that score they probably succeeded.
Continue reading "Univision Debate Postmortem: The Six Amigos (Plus Ron Paul)"
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December 09, 2007
Liveblogging The Univision Republican Debate
7:46. Just had to update with this: LOTS of applause in this crowd for a question about Hugo Chavez, Washington's least favorite South American leader. Have no idea what question was posed to Paul w/r/t to Chavez, but his response inspires waves and waves of boos. What just happened here? Tune in tomorrow to find out!
7:28. Well, I got my closed captioning to work -- and the captions are en Espanol. Sorry, readers, but looks like I'm going to have to abort this mission. Truly a first in Gate history.
That said, I am just dumbfounded that the producers would change the format of the Republican debate in such a way that many non-Spanish-speaking Americans would not be able to tune in. There are so many questions about where some of these candidates -- Romney, Giuliani -- really are on immigration reform. That isn't the case in the much more unified Democratic field -- questions about driver's licenses notwithstanding.
We'll have a roundup of reaction to the debate tomorrow. Daily Kos has a Spanish-speaker watching; you can check out their (hotly partisan) liveblog coverage here. The Corner was also stymied in its coverage attempt. Somewhere, Tom Tancredo is doing la cucaracha in front of a TV set.
Apologies again. See you all tomorrow.
Continue reading "Liveblogging The Univision Republican Debate"
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November 28, 2007
Liveblogging The CNN/YouTube Republican Debate
End note. I rode CNN pretty hard earlier, but overall this was a very good forum for these candidates. The producers did a better job than last time at picking interesting and varied questions (with the requisite gotchas, of course), and the holdouts for facing the YouTube Generation -- Romney, Giuliani -- probably did themselves a favor by deciding to show up.
What will get the most attention tomorrow is the knife-fight between Giuilani and Romney that kicked things off. Their cases against each other -- that Giuliani ran a liberal government in a crazy city and that Romney is a political changeling who accomplished little as governor -- went public only recently, and tonight is the first time we saw the candidates make their arguments mano a mano. Their squabbling produced a good moment for Thompson, who got to play the grown-up in the room as he methodically parsed what was wrong with both their records on immigration.
But as those anti-Huckabee press releases indicate, Thompson's camp realizes their man is in trouble. The "Law & Order" star was the one who was supposed to swoop in and rescue stranded GOP voters; now it looks like Huckabee's doing the rescuing, among evangelical Iowans, anyway.
Continue reading "Liveblogging The CNN/YouTube Republican Debate"
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November 19, 2007
Name Those Lawmakers!
Quite a few House Republican lawmakers are experiencing buyer's remorse w/r/t Fred Thompson, according to CQ. No question his campaign hasn't lived up to the very, very lofty expectations that got him into this contest in the first place.
"I've kind of pulled back. I'm not not supporting him, but I'm not doing anything,” said one House Republican who previously rallied for the former Tennessee senator. None of the lawmakers who spoke to CQ would go on the record with their discontent "because they did not want to damage him or themselves publicly." Any guesses on who they are? E-mail us: jroh[at]nationaljournal.com.
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November 15, 2007
Giuliani's Shining City On A Hill
Rudy Giuliani upped the ante in the White House 2008 ad war today when he debuted the first TV spot of his presidential campaign in New Hampshire. The 60-second ad, entirely focused on the GOP front-runner's record as mayor of New York City, describes how he transformed the Big Apple from the crime and welfare "capital of America" to a city so clean and shiny, Disney filmmakers recently found it to be a fitting location for a live-action fairytale. But perhaps more interesting is what doesn't get mentioned in the ad: Giuliani's post-9/11 leadership.
See today's Ad Spotlight (subscription) for more details. Plus: Fred Thompson follows Tom Tancredo with an immigration-themed ad of his own.
Photo: Liz Lynch
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November 13, 2007
WH '08: Reading Between The Lines
This is what Wanda Franz, president of the National Right to Life Committee, said of today's Fred Thompson endorsement:
Our endorsement is a testament to Senator Thompson's long-standing pro-life record, his commitment to protecting unborn children, and our belief in his ability to win.
Emphasis ours. Ed Morrissey rightly points out that NRLC could have easily waited until a nominee emerges to make its decision, rather than casting its lot so soon with a candidate who's not completely on board with them. Rudy Giuliani winning the nod puts all the pro-life grassroots in an awkward position, so they'd all be in the same boat.
The reason this endorsement is significant is because of what it says about Mitt Romney's candidacy. It's nothing new, by the way. But it's worth chewing over.
On the issues, Romney is more in line with the pro-life grassroots than Thompson (a federalist) or Giuliani (pro-choice). It doesn't take much to figure out what's going on here. The institutions that are the face of evangelical America won't come out and say it, but the men and women who make up that base will.
Continue reading "WH '08: Reading Between The Lines"
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November 12, 2007
WH '08: Think Of The Cup As Overfloweth-ing
Is this a good or bad cycle for the religious right, already?
Despite a season of complaints, it turns out all sorts of Christian conservatives are finding something they like in each of the leading Republican candidates. The latest recipient of endorsement manna: Fred Thompson, who has picked up the National Right To Life Committee.
The timing couldn't be better for the "Law & Order" star, whose two-month-long campaign is getting ho-hum reviews (subscription). Joe Klein all but wrote Thompson off today, before news of the NRLC nod broke.
Clearly some will have to rethink the ETA of Thompson's political demise. The NRLC is expected to formally announce its endorsement tomorrow, and it will be worth keeping an ear open for the language they use. Thompson is a federalist on the abortion issue. That's pretty in line with a lot of conservatives, but not with advocacy groups like NRLC that won't settle for less than a federal ban on the procedure.
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November 05, 2007
Criminal Past Forces Thompson Adviser To Fold
Philip Martin, a longtime friend of and major fundraiser for GOP White House hopeful Fred Thompson, resigned from the campaign today after a weekend's worth of revelations and speculations about his past. He was convicted on multiple drug charges in the late 1970s and early 1980s -- at least a decade before he became friends with Thompson, who contends he knew nothing of Martin's troubles with the law.
ABC News piled on today with new revelations about tax problems relating to companies run by Martin, noting that several of his former businesses owe massive tax debts, and that the IRS "and the state of Tennessee filed liens against Martin himself in 1995 and 2002."
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October 18, 2007
WH '08: Brownback To Bow Out
The Republican field has suffered another casualty, as Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback is expected to end his nine-month bid for the presidency after failing to register in fundraising and polls.
Although he had previously said he would drop out of the race if he finished worse than fourth in the Iowa caucuses this January, the final blow to his struggling campaign appears to have come much earlier. According to finance reports his campaign submitted this week, Brownback raised only $817,286 in the third quarter and $3.5 million since he announced.
In the latest Strategic Vision (R) poll of Iowa Republicans, Brownback polled at just 4 percent. A recent Gallup/USA Today poll placed him at 2 percent nationally.
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October 10, 2007
The Republicans Yuk It Up In Michigan
This is how low the bar is set for the 2008 Republican front-runners' debate performances: Don't screw up, and make us laugh at least once.
That's according to most of the news coverage, anyway. Of Fred Thompson's long-awaited debut in yesterday's GOP primary debate in Michigan, the general assessment is no, he didn't screw up, and yes, that one thing he said at the end was kind of funny.
"I've enjoyed watching these fellas," the former Tennessee senator said as things were winding down. "I've got to admit, it was getting a little boring without me."
Good line, were it not for the fact that the debate wasn't terribly exciting with him either. He didn't scuffle with any of his eight rivals there, so there were no fireworks. Nor, as Rich Lowry also observed, were any of the "Law & Order" star's lines very funny. Does it matter? Thompson's catching a lot of flak for a rocky campaign launch -- before CNBC aired the debate, Radar magazine went up with a YouTube-laden "blooper reel" feature -- but his ready-made support in the polls guarantees him top-contender status. That support, remember, was there even before he officially entered the race. Unless he goofs up horribly on the national stage, it isn't going away because of one disappointing debate performance.
Thompson's viability is rooted less in who he is than who he is not. So voters might be better served by also paying attention to how Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney fared, even though this was their umpteenth televised debate.
Continue reading "The Republicans Yuk It Up In Michigan"
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October 03, 2007
Another Day, Another Gaffe For Fred Thompson
The list of Fred Thompson's verbal missteps continues -- and this time it seems the Republican presidential hopeful can't recall major details of an historical event in which he himself participated.
MSNBC reports that at a campaign event in Iowa Tuesday night, the candidate was asked about last year's Senate hearings on the nomination of Chief Justice John Roberts, whom Thompson "shepherded" through the confirmation process. The former Tennessee senator had this to say in response:
"Even though the other party controlled the Judiciary Committee, we got some votes there. For a good, sound, what I would call conservative justice."
News flash: Democrats didn't regain control of the Senate until 2006. Roberts' confirmation took place in 2005, when the GOP was still firmly in charge of both chambers.
Continue reading "Another Day, Another Gaffe For Fred Thompson"
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October 02, 2007
Clinton & The Democrats Lead In Third-Quarter Fundraising
As if further proof was needed, the third-quarter fundraising totals trickling out of the top presidential campaigns this week are demonstrating that in the 2008 White House race, the Democrats have the almighty dollar on their side.
And despite breathless media reports crowning Barack Obama the king of the third quarter yesterday, Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign reports this morning that she raised $27 million ($22 million for the primary) in the past three months -- $7 million more than her closest rival. Looks like Democrats are going to have an even harder time combating Clinton's image as the inevitable nominee.
Continue reading "Clinton & The Democrats Lead In Third-Quarter Fundraising"
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September 28, 2007
Race & The GOP: Six Out Of 10 Ain't Bad
The highly anticipated season premiere of "Grey's Anatomy" opened
with --
Oops, wrong post.
In case you missed it, and you probably did, there was a Republican presidential debate last night at Morgan State University in Baltimore. As with the Democrats' turn in June, radio and talk-show host Tavis Smiley was on hand to host the All-American Presidential Forum on PBS before a mostly black audience on the historically black campus.
What was different this time around? The four empty podiums on stage.
Out of the belief that the gains made by the GOP under President Bush's leadership have been hopelessly eroded (by President Bush's leadership), or the belief that with independents out of reach, their socially conservative, mostly white base is more crucial than ever, front-runners Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson skipped the event.
The six candidates chasing them were smart enough to take advantage.
Continue reading "Race & The GOP: Six Out Of 10 Ain't Bad"
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