February 12, 2008
WH '08: The Hurry-Up Primary Campaign
In homage to the great sportswriter (and Brookings Institution egghead) Gregg Easterbrook, we're dubbing today's spate of regional votes the Potomac Drainage Basin Primary. (It's no worse than any of the other nicknames we've seen.)
So in case you missed it, there's a primary vote happening today in Virginia, Maryland and right here in the District. Barack Obama's going to sweep those votes, and Hillary Rodham Clinton is going to keep losing contests until March 4's Ohio and Texas primaries, which she might also lose. Wow, those are a long way away. She's a goner.
And... scene.
So goes our cheeky ribbing of the media speculation-a-thon regarding today's primaries, which according to MSM bylaws a) must have a cutesy nickname (Chesapeake or Crab Cake?) and b) must be predictive of the nomination winner and, while we're at it, the winner of the November general election vote.
Continue reading "WH '08: The Hurry-Up Primary Campaign"
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February 08, 2008
McCain & Conservatives: It's Not Love, But It'll Do
Conservative activists still haven't forgiven John McCain for thumbing his nose at them in 2000, when he challenged their candidate, George W. Bush, for the Republican nomination. That's evident this week, as thousands of the conservative grassroots convene at the Omni Shoreham Hotel in Washington for the 2008 Conservative Political Action Conference.
Eleven months ago, as the 2008 presidential race was kicking into gear, there was zero support for McCain at CPAC. Though Mitt Romney emerged the CPAC straw poll winner, support for him at the time seemed to be borne of resignation. The conservative base was agonizing over its choices for the nominee, and at its dim hopes of hanging on to the White House in the wake of a tremendously unpopular Republican presidency. The ennui prompted Mike Huckabee to quip that the conference ought to be renamed, "Dude, where's my candidate?"
With no offense intended to Huckabee, who still remains in this contest, it's now pretty clear that, dude, your candidate is John McCain.
"I hope you will pardon my absence last year, and understand that I intended no personal insult to any of you. I was merely preoccupied with the business of trying to escape the distinction of preseason front-runner for the Republican nomination which, I'm sure some of you observed, I managed to do in fairly short order," McCain said at the conference yesterday, using humor as he often does to defuse an awkward situation.
It worked, and not just because the room was packed with the McCainiacs who were totally absent at last year's CPAC. Just hours before, Mitt Romney informed attendees he was dropping out of the race. Romney supporters were also on hand to hear from McCain, in an irony-laden, fresh-start introduction to the GOP's presumptive nominee.
Continue reading "McCain & Conservatives: It's Not Love, But It'll Do"
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February 07, 2008
Romney Ends White House Bid 'For Country, Party'
Speaking before a roomful of conservative activists in Washington, Mitt Romney drew his presidential campaign to a close.
"This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose," Romney said before an audience at the Conservative Political Action Conference. "If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and for our country."
Romney was announcing the suspension of his campaign -- a technical term that allows him to keep raising funds -- two days after a deeply disappointing performance on Super Tuesday. John McCain has won 13 of the states that have held primaries or caucuses so far, and Romney is close behind with 11. But McCain's wins in big-prize states like California on Tuesday gave him a nearly insurmountable delegate-count lead. With Mike Huckabee strongly defending his turf in the South, it became impossible on Wednesday morning to see how Romney could overtake the Arizona senator.
"I disagree with Senator McCain on a number of issues, as you know. But I agree with him on doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and executing Osama bin Laden and on eliminating al-Qaida and terror," Romney said. "If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator [Hillary Rodham] Clinton or [Barack] Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror."
The crowd let its disappointment be known, booing Romney's decision to bow out and pleading with him to hang on. But the politically tuned-in CPAC attendees know better than anyone that their guy has virtually no shot at the Republican nomination.
McCain skipped the conference last year because he had no support there. He's scheduled to speak at 3 p.m. today, and now that Romney's out, will ride in as the Republican nominee. We got a preview of how he'll be received, courtesy of talk-radio host Laura Ingraham.
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February 06, 2008
Super Tuesday Updates: New Mexico & Romney
We called it quits last night with two states outstanding. The results are in for one of the states, while the other is turning out to be a nail-biter.
In the New Mexico Democratic caucus, the Clinton-Obama contest is still too close to call. Fewer than 120 votes separated Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama after counting earlier today, so that contest will be decided by provisional ballots, the Albuquerque Journal reports. State Democratic Party workers will begin counting the more than 16,000 provisional ballots today.
Per the Journal, Clinton took most of the counties while Obama bested her in Santa Fe and Bernalillo counties. The strong Latino vote helped Clinton here, but it's too soon to tell if that will be enough.
New Mexico is a proportional delegate state, with 38 up for grabs. That means both will walk away with some of the booty. But a win here for Obama adds another swing state to his column, further undergirding his claim that he would perform better than Clinton in the general election. That's why both candidates lobbied so hard for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's endorsement. He declined to tap either until the nomination is decided, but he did watch the Super Bowl with Bill Clinton. (Of course, President Clinton used to be Richardson's boss.)
Continue reading "Super Tuesday Updates: New Mexico & Romney"
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Big Fat Super Tuesday: It's Still Not Over!
1:58. Obama's declared the "winner winner" in Missouri. He and Clinton are running about even in New Mexico.
In the Republican field, it's near impossible to see how anyone stops McCain. A comeback for the history books, surely. It will be interesting to see how he's received Thursday at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, which he skipped last year because there was so much hostility toward him. The Gate will be there.
Meanwhile, Romney is meeting with his top advisers tomorrow to discuss his future, the Boston Globe reports. He's been accusing Huckabee of splitting the evangelical vote, but Huckabee's supporters are more likely to go to McCain should their guy bail out. The South was in a pretty anti-Romney mood today, and there's reason to believe this has something to do with religion.
Knowingly or not, Huckabee has used the religion wedge to his advantage. Some would say knowingly, although he hasn't really been called out on it.
We're going to call it a night. Check back tomorrow later today for those lingering New Mexico and Alaska results.
1:26. MSNBC's Chuck Todd did the math, and he projects Obama and Clinton will be about tied in delegate counts. They will have to soldier on in the upcoming contests: Louisiana (2/9), Washington (2/9), Maine (2/10), D.C. (2/12), Maryland (2/12), Virginia (2/12) and probably beyond.
Continue reading "Big Fat Super Tuesday: It's Still Not Over!"
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February 04, 2008
WH '08: There Goes That Theory
We've been quietly wondering whether John McCain's sudden ascendancy would worry Democrats supporting Barack Obama enough to make them rethink their vote. Hillary Rodham Clinton has been cast as the "experience" candidate, and the veracity of that claim aside, she has been viewed as a safer bet to win against a strong war-on-terror candidate like McCain in the general election.
Remember Obama's victory speech after he won the South Carolina Democratic primary, when he and a stadium full of supporters asked America not to tell them change was impossible? Well, the "believe" mantra you've been seeing on all those campaign signs and hearing in so many of Obama's speeches appears to be taking hold, less than 24 hours before Democratic voters in 22 states go to the polls.
Several new surveys show Obama outperforming Clinton in national matchups against McCain. In one poll showing the two Democrats both beating McCain, Obama does it by an 8-point margin, compared to a 3-point margin for Clinton. Others show Clinton losing to McCain and McCain losing to Obama.
(Mitt Romney, by the way, gets bludgeoned by both.)
It looks as if Democratic voters tomorrow won't have to make a painful choice between following their heads and following their hearts after all.
Continue reading "WH '08: There Goes That Theory"
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January 30, 2008
McCain Wins Giuliani Nod, Puts Entire Field On Notice
UPDATED.
"I made it clear at different times in this campaign that if I had not decided to run -- I believe I even said it at a debate -- the only person in the country that I clearly would've supported for the president of the United States would be John McCain. And that came from the heart.
"Today, I'm officially announcing my withdrawal as a candidate for president of the United States."
And with that, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani closed the chapter on his own presidential aspirations and opened a new one in this rollercoaster ride of an election cycle. McCain's victory in the Florida Republican primary yesterday was already validation that he's now the GOP front-runner. Giuliani's decision to ally himself with McCain today sent a strong message to the challengers in both fields: This election will once again center on security and defense.
"It will be a clear choice this November, and I believe that my life has prepared me. A life of service, and a life of dedication to lead this nation and the transcendent challenge of the 21st century: the great threat and evil of radical Islam," McCain said, accepting Giuliani's endorsement.
The person who should fear McCain's ascendancy most immediately is Mitt Romney, who's been pushed out of the headlines as the nation digests McCain's comeback, unthinkable just months ago. McCain not only has a delegates-count advantage going into next week's Super Tuesday contests, he also has a wide margin over Romney in national polling, which at this late date can be considered a fairly reliable indicator of how the big-prize states will vote.
Continue reading "McCain Wins Giuliani Nod, Puts Entire Field On Notice"
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January 29, 2008
McCain Edges Romney In Florida; Giuliani Bowing Out
UPDATED.
John McCain edged out rival Mitt Romney to win the Republican primary in Florida, sealing his comeback status as the front-runner in this race.
"Our victory might not have reached landslide proportions, but it is sweet nonetheless," McCain said, as supporters cheered an increasingly familiar refrain, "Mac is back! Mac is back!"
"To everyone who in good times and bad devoted much time and energy and hope to keeping our candidacy competitive: Thank you from the bottom of my heart," McCain said, in reference to his astonishing revival after being left for dead last summer when his campaign operation imploded.
These numbers will be confirmed tomorrow, but McCain bested Romney by about 36 percent to 31 percent. Rudy Giuliani won 15 percent of the registered-Republicans-only vote, followed by Mike Huckabee 2 points behind. The exit polling data show some surprising alliances. Latinos overwhelmingly went to McCain, even though Romney was up with Spanish-language ads in Florida nearly a year ago. McCain also bested Romney among voters middle-aged and older. The two fared about equally among middle-income voters, with Romney gaining an edge in the $100,000-$199,990 bracket. But McCain won over Republicans earning $200,000 or more, 44 percent to 30 percent.
With Super Tuesday just a week away, McCain heads into that 24-state competition the delegate-count winner, with Romney his chief rival and Huckabee the wild card.
Meanwhile, without actually saying he was dropping out, Giuliani all but drew his campaign to a close in his concession speech tonight. He said he was "proud" of his campaign for keeping things positive -- he never really went after anyone except Romney and Ron Paul -- and nodded to his improbable candidacy and improbable strategy.
Continue reading "McCain Edges Romney In Florida; Giuliani Bowing Out"
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January 25, 2008
WH '08: Everyone's Being So Nice! (For Now.)
Hey, you guys! It's so super to see you! No matter what happens in Florida on Tuesday, let's promise to always be friends. I am so serious!!!
Ahem.
The Republican candidates debate last night was mind-bogglingly polite -- proof that in politics, anything really is possible. Gone were the condescending swipes at Mitt Romney that dominated the previous GOP debate earlier this month. Romney, in kind, held his fire, and so for once we had a forum that was dominated by issues.
We heard some interesting ideas from the candidates on how to jump-start the economy. Mike Huckabee, for instance, made a pretty good point when he said that the rebate checks millions of Americans will receive as part of a congressional stimulus package will likely go to goods made elsewhere, which does nothing to address the dying manufacturing sector here at home.
"And frankly, in talking about the stimulus package, one of the concerns that I have is that we'll probably end up borrowing this $150 billion from the Chinese. And when we get those rebate checks, most people are going to go out and buy stuff that's been imported from China. I have to wonder whose economy is going to be stimulated the most by the package," the former Arkansas governor said.
You won't hear talk like that on the Democratic side, where it's anathema to question the soundness of cutting those checks even though economists doubt they are actually stimulative.
Yesterday's debate also saw the return of the Iraq war as a campaign issue. Romney in particular foreshadowed the general-election argument to come on this topic: "We cannot turn Iraq over to al-Qaida and have al-Qaida have a safe haven from which they could recruit people to carry out bombings, to attack this country and our friends around the world. It's unthinkable. And that's why I will not walk away from Iraq until we have been successful and finish that job."
Where there were policy differences, the candidates managed to lay out their arguments without elbowing the others along the way. We saw what looked to be genuine camaraderie between Romney and Rudy Giuliani on the heels of a New York Times article on why Romney is the most disliked candidate in this field. And speaking of Giuliani, his chuckling and snorting punctuated nearly all the lighter moments of the 90-minute debate. (Where was that Giuliani when he was mayor of New York??)
Continue reading "WH '08: Everyone's Being So Nice! (For Now.)"
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January 24, 2008
McCain Wins Coveted Rambo Endorsement
Haha, we kid. About the "coveted" part, anyway. But seriously, Sylvester Stallone really has endorsed Arizona Sen. John McCain for president.
"I like McCain a lot. A lot," Sly told Fox News. "And you know, things may change along the way, but there's something about matching the character with the script. And right now, the script that's being written and reality is pretty brutal and pretty hard-edged like a rough action film, and you need somebody who's been in that to deal with it."
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January 19, 2008
Super Saturday I: McCain Wins S.C. Primary In Nail-Biter
UPDATED.
Now you may call it a comeback: John McCain has taken the South Carolina Republican primary.
McCain pulled out a narrow victory over Mike Huckabee, 33 percent to 30 percent. Fred Thompson (16 percent) and Mitt Romney (15 percent) basically tied for third.
"You know, it took us a while, but what's eight years among friends?" McCain quipped in his trademark self-deprecating manner, referencing his South Carolina loss to President Bush in 2000. "As I have said before, I know that before I can win your vote, I must earn your respect. And the only way I know how to do that is by being honest with you. I have tried to do that throughout this campaign, and to put my trust in your willingness to give me your fair consideration. So far, it seems to be working out just fine," he continued, in a room filled with ecstatic volunteers and supporters who minutes before had been chanting "Mac is back! Mac is back!"
McCain also made sure to note -- or gloat, perhaps -- that the chattering classes had declared his campaign DOA just months ago. "I am aware that for the last 28 years, the winner of the South Carolina primary has been the nominee of our party. We have a ways to go, of course," he said. "There are some tough contests ahead, starting tomorrow in the state of Florida. But, my friends, we are well on our way tonight. And I feel very good about our chances."
The outcome in South Carolina tonight is meaningful for at least two big reasons. One is that neither Huckabee nor McCain directly engaged in a negative way in a state infamous for its down-and-dirty politics.
Continue reading "Super Saturday I: McCain Wins S.C. Primary In Nail-Biter"
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January 18, 2008
Can This Brand Be Saved?
It's been one year since the unofficial kickoff of the 2008 presidential campaigns, and the state of play for the Republican nomination contest is remarkable both for what has changed and what hasn't.
Most obviously different are the front-runners. Mike Huckabee, nationally unknown this time in 2007, now rides comfortably in the top tier. He's always had the goods to do well in this campaign but faced long odds against better-funded celebrity candidates.
Both he and John McCain have smashed pundits' expectations and are now enjoying the attention and funding that front-runner status guarantees. But in many ways, the game for the Republicans hasn't changed one bit. This field still lacks a candidate who is all things to all GOP voters. The party isn't coalescing around one or two choices, as is happening in the Democratic race. Rather, the party is being divvied up like a pie, with each candidate representing just a slice of the big-picture GOP platform.
The primary vote is so fractured, in fact, that a brokered convention actually seems a distinct possibility. Yeah, yeah, we hear that every other cycle. Only, the longer you examine the differences among Huckabee, McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, the more completely, utterly irreconcilable those differences seem. MSNBC's Chris Matthews is taking even more heat this week for a comparison he made between the GOP and Iraq's warring factions. Matthews may have stumbled through that analogy rather inelegantly, but he is on to something.
Continue reading "Can This Brand Be Saved?"
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January 15, 2008
The Dems In Vegas: Liveblogging The Debate
End note. We've suspected for a while that the media have blown up trivialities in the Democratic nomination contest because the candidates are mostly on board with each other on the major issues. This forum was a case in point.
Have Clinton and Obama really been squabbling over who is the rightful heir to MLK? Of course not. But you might have been led to believe otherwise by the previous days' news cycles, which is why it came up tonight.
Is Obama really struggling to convince voters that he's not a jihadist in disguise? Certainly. Not. The only plausible defense Williams et al. could give for bringing that story up is that it's already out there, and they were simply giving Obama a chance to put the rumors to rest. Again, we say: Anyone willing to believe those rumors hasn't been following Obama hardly at all and probably wouldn't vote for him no matter what. Imagine George Stephanopoulos asking John McCain about his rumored illegitimate black baby. Some things, my friends, should simply be out of bounds.
You're going to hear more about the rocky beginning of this debate tomorrow, I suspect. We'll update with reaction in the afternoon. [I lied; we'll go up with it Thursday.]
By the way, with 89 percent of precincts reporting, it's not even close: Romney trounced McCain 39 percent to 30 percent. Because Romney is a native son, a win in Michigan means much less than a loss would have. Still, he needed a gold, and he'll use his victory tonight to convince GOP voters that he's still in it to win it. See reports on the GOP contest here and here.
Continue reading "The Dems In Vegas: Liveblogging The Debate"
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January 14, 2008
Poll Track: Riding The Early-Primary Tide
If there were any doubts about the continued importance of the Iowa and New Hampshire nominating contests in light of this year's accelerated primary schedule, a slew of new national polls should put them to rest.
Last week, a Gallup/USA Today poll, the first national survey taken after the Iowa caucuses, showed significant jumps in support for that state's two winners -- Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee -- propelling each to the top of their respective party's slate. But those gains were apparently short-lived, as a flurry of new national polls conducted after the New Hampshire primary last week has the Granite State's victors -- Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain -- leading their respective fields.
For more details on recent national polling on the White House race, see today's Poll Track. And see National Journal's current cover story for analysis of how the dominant demographics and ideologies of future primary states are likely to impact the campaigns ahead of Feb. 5's "Super Tuesday" contests.
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January 11, 2008
UPDATED: A Completely Unexpected Get For Huckabee
Newsday columnist and FOX News regular James Pinkerton has signed on as an adviser to Mike Huckabee's campaign. Pinkerton, an alum of the Reagan and Bush 41 administrations, said in a statement that he "jumped at the opportunity" to help the former Arkansas governor "restore the magnificent Reagan coalition."
That Pinkerton is suspending his relationship with FOX and his column of 14 years is not only surprising, but also says something about the momentum building around Huckabee.
It's been oft-noted that the 2008 GOP presidential front-runners all clash with the Republican Party establishment in some way. (Mitt Romney is the GOP Establishment Candidate to a tee, but is having trouble convincing Republicans of his authenticity.) It was believed that despite his Iowa win, Huckabee would face vehement opposition from the anti-tax/pro-wealth, anti-illegal immigration and libertarian wings of his party. That may yet be the case. But the fact that the campaign was able to convince Pinkerton to sign on may indicate that Reagan idolizers in the party see more that they like in Huckabee than not.
Continue reading "UPDATED: A Completely Unexpected Get For Huckabee"
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January 09, 2008
WH '08: Don't (!!!) Call It A Comeback
"Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice," a relieved and triumphant Hillary Rodham Clinton told a roaring crowd of supporters last night.
Today's campaign news cycle is all about how the media and pundits boo-boo'd so badly, having declared Clinton's campaign DOA heading into the New Hampshire primary and John McCain out for the count for the last six months running. There's a sea of red faces out there but, we contend, for the wrong reason.
Last we checked, journalism was about reporting facts, not predicting them. Some amount of prognostication can be quite useful for contextualizing the news. But when so many talking heads call a close contest well before the first vote tallies come in, what's the point of that, exactly? It seems as if egos, and not the public, are the ones getting served.
Leave it to quirky, independent-minded Granite Staters to tell the rest of the country: Not so fast.
Continue reading "WH '08: Don't (!!!) Call It A Comeback"
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Clinton Takes New Hampshire In Stunner; McCain (& Huckabee) Also Triumph
UPDATED WITH FINAL RESULTS.
Hillary Rodham Clinton has pulled out an upset in New Hampshire, where a surprisingly tight battle with Barack Obama upended early predictions that a misguided strategy might doom her bid for the Democratic nomination. The upside for those embarrassed by their premature crystal ball-gazing is that voters across the country have a real menu of options in both parties.
"I come tonight with a very, very full heart," Clinton said to tremendous cheering and applause from supporters. "I want to especially thank New Hampshire. Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice."
The crowd roared in response. More than anyone else on the 2008 slate of presidential candidates, the question of "how human" she seems dogs the former first lady. When Clinton appeared to be the inevitable nominee just months ago, it was because she had defied expectations in her strong debate performances and favorable responses from voters on the trail. In what was probably a moment of simple, human fatigue (although longtime Clinton-haters will say otherwise), she appeared to choke up during an exchange in a diner yesterday. A media frenzy ensued, and pundits were wondering out loud whether Clinton was too soft to endure the knocks of a presidential campaign.
By a hair (39 percent to 36 percent), Granite State voters voiced their preference for Clinton today, putting on pause the post-Iowa surge Obama appeared to be riding. If you aren't already convinced, Clinton's squeaker may be yet more proof that cable news is often best watched on mute.
Continue reading "Clinton Takes New Hampshire In Stunner; McCain (& Huckabee) Also Triumph"
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January 08, 2008
Study: U.S. Lags Industrialized Nations In Preventable Deaths
When the Republican candidates for president met Saturday for one of their final debates before today's New Hampshire primary, there was one point on which all six of them seemed to agree -- America has "the best health care system in the world."
While the Democrats have spent much time and energy proposing sweeping reforms to increase access for the 47 million uninsured Americans, the Republicans have been warning that a move to "socialized medicine" -- which is how they characterize the government-run systems of most other industrialized nations -- would compromise the quality of care. For example, Rudy Giuliani asserted in a radio ad that, when he was diagnosed with prostate cancer, his chances of survival in the U.S. were nearly double what they would have been in England "under socialized medicine."
Those figures were later disputed by some experts, but in the end his point about disease treatment may be irrelevant. As Mike Huckabee pointed out in the debate, "What we have in America is a health care maze. It's built on the idea that we wait until people are so desperately ill that the cost to try to fix them is catastrophic and out of control."
A new study published in the policy journal Health Affairs seems to echo Huckabee's concerns. In the study, the United States came in dead last among 19 leading industrialized nations in preventable deaths. The researchers based their analysis, which placed France, Japan and Australia at the top of the heap, on the number of deaths that "could have been prevented by access to timely and effective health care," Reuters reports.
Continue reading "Study: U.S. Lags Industrialized Nations In Preventable Deaths"
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January 07, 2008
N.H. Countdown: Of Knuckleheads, Huckaburgers & Crybabies
As much as you might resent the presidential candidates for forcing you to confront the 2008 election so early, it's hard not to feel a little sorry for them. Most are sleep-deprived and anxious just four days after the Iowa caucuses, the results of which forced some candidates to retune their campaign strategies on the run.
This is especially true for Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is locked in a super-tight battle for first in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary, polls released today show. Her decisive loss to Barack Obama in Iowa seemed to send her camp into a tailspin. There are strong hints that if she is humiliated in the Granite State, a personnel shuffle will follow.
A mixture of anxiety, adrenaline and sheer physical exhaustion may explain why we've seen such a range of emotions from Clinton this week. First, she feistily returned fire at rivals Obama and John Edwards at the ABC/Facebook debate on Saturday -- a performance that indicated she wasn't going to take the onslaught of attacks lying down.
An uncharacteristically emotional moment for her today is sucking up most of the oxygen in coverage of New Hampshire. That she seemed to choke up when asked about the hardships of campaigning by a voter raises questions about her gender again. Those questions have distracted the media before, but the Clinton Crying story comes less than 24 hours before Granite Staters go to the polls.
Continue reading "N.H. Countdown: Of Knuckleheads, Huckaburgers & Crybabies"
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January 06, 2008
Liveblogging the FOX Republican Roundtable -- Minus Ron Paul
9:37. It's over. If anyone's feelings were hurt tonight, like Hillary Rodham Clinton's were yesterday, it's Mitt Romney. He seemed to be running an impeccable campaign, and that's part of the problem. Schadenfreude is a female dog, as he is learning all too well.
As we said before, the GOP primary is shaping to be a real knife-fight between Romney and McCain. Will Huckabee deliver another surprise? The ground seems to be shifting yet again in the Republican nomination battle, but with the primaries so front-loaded voters have little time to carefully weigh their options. If there is buyer's remorse come spring, we'll hear a lot of calls for shaking up the primary calendar for 2012.
Check back tomorrow for a roundup of reaction to tonight's forum and the ones ABC held last night. Good night.
9:30. Why are you best qualified to go to the general?
Giuliani: I'm not perfect, but I can solve problems.
Thompson: I've never lost an election. OK, so I haven't run in many elections...
Huckabee: I can relate to ordinary, hardworking Americans.
Romney: "Chris, I got in this race because my family told me I ought to." [ed: Really??]
McCain: I can re-energize the Republican base. And I love New Hampshire!
Continue reading "Liveblogging the FOX Republican Roundtable -- Minus Ron Paul"
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January 04, 2008
WH '08: A Brusque, But Not Brisk, Farewell To Iowa
We haven't matched the rest of the media's outsized coverage of the Iowa caucuses because of the very nature of the caucuses themselves. But we have to admit that what we saw last night was pretty astonishing, in part because a poll predicting the results actually turned out to be right.
Of course, that could just be a coincidence, but the Des Moines Register appears to have corrected for some of the factors that plagued surveys past. (Though it's still not without its problems, Mark Blumenthal points out.) The David-vs.-Goliath victory of Mike Huckabee (results) flew in the face of conventional wisdom, proving that a virtual unknown with hardly any money to campaign with and virtually no organization could sell himself to voters.
Huck's defeat of Mitt Romney does not, however, mean that the conventional wisdom won't prevail.
If you know anything about how the caucuses work, you know that they are unrepresentative of party voters nationwide and are undemocratic, particularly on the Democratic side (irony, irony), to boot. So of course all the attention now goes to New Hampshire (but not Wyoming, which holds its GOP caucus tomorrow), for the first primary vote of the season. New Hampshire's results will almost certainly be different from Iowa's, so a lot of comparing and contrasting will ensue.
We purposely did not devote a lot of blog space to the caucuses for good reason. But yesterday's surprising results dispelled some long-standing prognostication about the 2008 presidential election. Since dispensing with conventional wisdom can be fun (OK, we're nerds), let's take out the trash after the jump.
Continue reading "WH '08: A Brusque, But Not Brisk, Farewell To Iowa"
Posted at 5:51 PM
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Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Economy, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, John Edwards, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Middle East, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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Obama & Huckabee Win Iowa; Biden & Dodd Exit Race
Last night's Iowa caucuses created two decisive winners in the first-in-the-nation presidential nominating contest and two new casualties in the overall race.
With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Barack Obama pulled ahead of the Democratic pack with 38 percent of the vote, followed by John Edwards in second with 30 percent and Hillary Rodham Clinton close behind at 29 percent.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee completed his ascent from relativ
