November 12, 2007
WH '08: Think Of The Cup As Overfloweth-ing
Is this a good or bad cycle for the religious right, already?
Despite a season of complaints, it turns out all sorts of Christian conservatives are finding something they like in each of the leading Republican candidates. The latest recipient of endorsement manna: Fred Thompson, who has picked up the National Right To Life Committee.
The timing couldn't be better for the "Law & Order" star, whose two-month-long campaign is getting ho-hum reviews (subscription). Joe Klein all but wrote Thompson off today, before news of the NRLC nod broke.
Clearly some will have to rethink the ETA of Thompson's political demise. The NRLC is expected to formally announce its endorsement tomorrow, and it will be worth keeping an ear open for the language they use. Thompson is a federalist on the abortion issue. That's pretty in line with a lot of conservatives, but not with advocacy groups like NRLC that won't settle for less than a federal ban on the procedure.
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November 07, 2007
WH '08: 9/11 Really Did Change Everything
In an anticipated but nonetheless stunning development, televangelist Pat Robertson has endorsed former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani for president.
"For months I have contemplated our future and the outstanding group of men who are offering themselves to the Republican Party to be its standard-bearer in the 2008 presidential election. Today, it is my pleasure to announce my support for a mayor, America's mayor, Rudy Giuliani, and a proven leader, who is not afraid of what lies ahead and who will cast a hopeful vision for all Americans," Robertson announced at a campaign press conference.
The controversial Christian right leader had been courted heavily by the Republican candidates. Mitt Romney delivered the May commencement address at Robertson's Regent University, and John McCain apologized to Robertson for grouping him with the "agents of intolerance" in the evangelical community after his failed 2000 presidential bid.
"Sometimes you say things in anger that you don't mean," the Arizona senator explained in a March interview with the Christian Broadcasting Network.
Robertson had made it clear that all was not forgiven, declaring on several occasions that McCain would never win his vote. Romney, however, was thought to have an actual shot. Robertson hadn't gone on the record criticizing the former Massachusetts governor's Mormon faith, even though it's considered by some evangelicals to be a cult.
Observers may describe this coup for Giuliani as a game-changing moment in Republican electoral politics. They might be overstating things a bit.
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October 18, 2007
WH '08: Brownback To Bow Out
The Republican field has suffered another casualty, as Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback is expected to end his nine-month bid for the presidency after failing to register in fundraising and polls.
Although he had previously said he would drop out of the race if he finished worse than fourth in the Iowa caucuses this January, the final blow to his struggling campaign appears to have come much earlier. According to finance reports his campaign submitted this week, Brownback raised only $817,286 in the third quarter and $3.5 million since he announced.
In the latest Strategic Vision (R) poll of Iowa Republicans, Brownback polled at just 4 percent. A recent Gallup/USA Today poll placed him at 2 percent nationally.
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September 28, 2007
Race & The GOP: Six Out Of 10 Ain't Bad
The highly anticipated season premiere of "Grey's Anatomy" opened
with --
Oops, wrong post.
In case you missed it, and you probably did, there was a Republican presidential debate last night at Morgan State University in Baltimore. As with the Democrats' turn in June, radio and talk-show host Tavis Smiley was on hand to host the All-American Presidential Forum on PBS before a mostly black audience on the historically black campus.
What was different this time around? The four empty podiums on stage.
Out of the belief that the gains made by the GOP under President Bush's leadership have been hopelessly eroded (by President Bush's leadership), or the belief that with independents out of reach, their socially conservative, mostly white base is more crucial than ever, front-runners Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson skipped the event.
The six candidates chasing them were smart enough to take advantage.
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September 27, 2007
Who's Afraid Of Tavis Smiley?
Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are, apparently.
The leading Republican presidential candidates cited "scheduling conflicts" as their reason for skipping tonight's All-American Presidential Forum on PBS.
"I'm puzzled by their decision. I can't speak for them. I think it's a mistake," said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earlier this week.
President Bush also weighed in on the matter last week: "My advice to whoever will be our nominee is to reach out to the African-American community as well as other communities, because I believe we've got a very strong record when it comes to" issues affecting them.
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September 06, 2007
The FOX Republican Debate; Thompson's Tease On Leno
Last night, the GOP candidates for president once again gathered before the podiums -- this time in New Hampshire -- to talk Iraq, immigration, the economy and more. As always, The Gate was watching.
Score a few for McCain. It's hard to envision the Arizona senator getting much further in this race after the losses he's suffered this summer, and yet it's equally hard to accept that John McCain's candidacy might be over so soon. He has the most storied military and foreign policy experience out of everyone on that stage, and all the change vs. experience talk this cycle has obscured the fact that this election is really about both.
Experience is the change. The Iraq war was planned and managed by civilians with no substantive military experience who ignored the advice of the Colin Powells and Brent Scowcrofts of the nation. Yes, McCain supported the invasion, but he was among the first to spot flaws in the postwar planning, and he says he's committed to leaving Iraq better than it was, which means he's both critical and supportive of ongoing operations there.
Whereas his earlier platform on Iraq too closely echoed the perceived blindness from the White House, costing him independent voters, McCain seems to have found a more credible argument for the war. "The people in New Hampshire are sad and angry over our failures in Iraq," McCain said last night. "I want our troops home. But I want them home with honor, otherwise we will face genocide and catastrophe in the region." The first point is clearly true, and voters may be coming around to the second point. Just ask the Democrats, who've been forced to temper their get-out-now calls.
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August 15, 2007
WH '08: You Don't Have To Go Home, But You Can't Stay Here
The crowded presidential campaign fields can be headache-inducing, and that has some political pundits wishing more candidates would make like Tommy Thompson and just leave.
Today, the National Review's Rich Lowry calls on Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback to pack his bags and go.
Calling Brownback's abortion platform "the very embodiment of a tendency toward impractical perfectionism among pro-lifers," Lowry points to fellow pro-lifer Mike Huckabee's surprise second-place finish at the Iowa Republican Straw Poll. "Huckabee has shined in the debates, is a natural orator, and has considerable crossover appeal to the media. None of this can be said of Brownback," Lowry scoffs.
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August 13, 2007
A Few Reasons To Heart Huckabee
We've never understood why Mike Huckabee hasn't fared better in the GOP primary contest. From his resume (Arkansas governor, rocker) to his bio (Baptist preacher, lost 110 pounds) to his age (52), the witty and likeable Huckabee seems to have all the goods for a presidential run.
Which is why the Other Man From Hope's surprise second-place finish at the Iowa Republican Straw Poll could potentially shake up the race. In political circles, the nonbinding vote is said to be the best money can buy. Unlike much of his competition, Huckabee didn't have the cash to bus in supporters. His tent wasn't air-conditioned. The Club for Growth was running a TV ad in the Ames/Des Moines market accusing Huckabee of raising taxes on nursing home beds. And still, Huckabee persuaded 737 people to vote for him gratis (the campaign was able to pay for 1,850 supporters' tickets).
That Huckabee, who still doesn't have national name recognition, was able to pull it off is a testament to his attractiveness as a candidate. Now he will have to leverage that success to turn his bid for the GOP nod into an insurgent campaign that catches fire -- and campaign donations.
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Rebuffed By Iowans, Tommy Thompson Heads Home
After spending months (and millions) touring the state of Iowa in his bid to woo caucus voters the old-fashioned way, GOP presidential hopeful Tommy Thompson is packing up and heading home.
True to his word, the former Wisconsin governor took a good, hard look at his prospects for winning the GOP nomination after finishing a disappointing sixth in this weekend's Iowa straw poll and decided it was time to move on.
"I have no regrets about running," Thompson said Sunday in a statement. "I felt my record as governor of Wisconsin and secretary of Health and Human Services gave me the experience I needed to serve as president, but I respect the decision of the voters."
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August 10, 2007
Amesin' For A Win
This weekend, political junkies and the GOP faithful will have their eyes glued on a small, quaint city smack in the middle of Iowa. Ames, population 52,000, is home to Iowa State University, soybean fields and Skunk River. In politics, however, it's known primarily for its influential* GOP presidential straw poll.
The relevance of Ames gets an asterisk this year, in part because two of the Republican Party's top contenders -- former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain -- have opted not to participate in the contest. Another cloud overshadowing Iowa's prominence in the 2008 election is the rush of other states to move their primary dates up to January and early February.
Despite Giuliani's and McCain's decisions to skip the Ames contest, the rest of the field is soldiering on with Iowa-focused campaigns, and most of the momentum is resting with Mitt Romney.
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August 06, 2007
The Obama Republican Iowa Debate
Shortly after yesterday's Republican presidential candidates debate in Iowa kicked off, this Gater found herself applauding. Was it for Mitt Romney? Tom Tancredo? Ron Paul?
None of the above. The Gate was clapping for ABC News' George Stephanopoulos, who dug out a few of those negative campaign tactics voters so despise and forced offending candidates to explain themselves.
First on the dock: Sam Brownback, a hero of pro-life conservatives who can't seem to get a leg up in the crowded race for the GOP nod. In an effort to claw upward in the polls, he's zeroed in on Romney, who's positioned himself as the only true social conservative in the upper tier of candidates. Stephanopoulos played Brownback's campaign robo-call to Iowans attacking Romney for his prior pro-choice stance.
Awk-ward.
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July 27, 2007
We Want A GOP YouTube Debate!
The Gate tries very hard to not cross the "advocacy" line, but some recent (un)developments have forced us to take a stand.
We want a Republican YouTube debate.
No, the format of Monday's Democratic forum wasn't "revolutionary," as CNN would have you believe, but it was both informative and entertaining. The kids need a little cheese sauce with their broccoli sometimes, and we bet that the YouTube format had them more engaged than in any of the previous face-offs.
So listen, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney and Tom Tancredo: Sign on to the Sept. 17 CNN/YouTube debate, already.
We get that campaign time is an increasingly precious commodity. Republicans, not to mention the rest of the country, aren't really hot on any of you right now. But how could taking occasionally quirky questions from real-live Americans hurt? If anything, you get a platform on which to let your good humor and personality shine. We urge you to seize this opportunity.
Note that it's a group of Republicans who are circulating a petition asking you to reconsider. Conservatives ridiculed Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards for skipping the planned FOX News Democratic debate. Gentleman, do not cut and run from this chance to show Americans a) that you are running for president (a lot of them don't know this yet) and b) that you are not afraid of the occasional curveball. Please follow Tommy Thompson's lead and show us you're not scared of a talking snowman.
The Gate isn't signing any petitions for obvious reasons, but we encourage our readers to send this along: http://www.savethedebate.com/.
-JANE ROH
Graphic: Reuben Dalke
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June 06, 2007
GOP Debate: Who's Afraid Of Fred Thompson?
Most everyone tuning in to last night's CNN-sponsored Republican forum in New Hampshire already had him on their minds, so former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson did us all a favor by calling out the ghost at the very beginning: "My name is Thompson, Tommy. I’m the candidate, not the actor."
The actor Thompson being, of course, Fred Thompson -- star of "In The Line Of Fire," "Law and Order," and lately, the fevered dreams of many a GOP primary voter. Unfortunately for Tommy Thompson, that joke may have backfired, as National Review's Katherine Jean Lopez points out. By the time the next Republican debate arrives in August, it's a safe bet more than one of the third tier -- Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul -- will have dropped out.
Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, by contrast, have a better chance of hanging in as the two candidates who represent the hard right on immigration reform. Both have passionate followings, and the latest skirmish in the Senate over a compromise overhaul is only angering their supporters.
Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney may be the only sure bets to last through the summer. But purity is still an issue for this party, more so, arguably, than for the Democrats, and none of these men should count on an easy ride to the primaries.
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June 05, 2007
Third GOP Debate: What, You Guys Again?
Another day, another debate. CNN's Wolf Blitzer et al. are staying put in Manchester, N.H., tonight to host another meeting of the Republican candidates, just two days after the Democrats squared off on the same stage. If tonight's meeting seems a tad anticlimactic, or rather, pre-climactic, that might be because someone's still missing from the current slate.
Enter Fred Thompson. The former senator and "Law and Order" star once played the president on TV, and unlike Dr. Cliff Warner from "All My Children" ("I'm not a doctor, but I play one on TV"), Thompson isn't selling cough syrup. Instead, he is positioning himself to be the candidate who cures what's ailing Republican voters.
NationalJournal.com's Poll Track (subscription) yesterday noted that voters already seem bored with what's on offer for 2008. Thompson sent ripples through the campaigns last week when he formed an exploratory committee. Sources close to the campaign told reporters the former Tennessee senator will formally declare his candidacy on the Fourth of July.
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May 15, 2007
Liveblogging The 2nd GOP Debate
UPDATED.
End note. Tonight's debate felt more substantive than the last meeting of the Republican 10. Candidates got the same 30 seconds or so to answer questions, but there were fewer questions this time, which made the pacing seem more orderly. The questions themselves were also all serious, more or less -- no one got lobbed with an out-of-left-field query (unlike last time around).
Quite a few of the candidates seem to have learned something from McCain. There were more follow-them-to-the-gates-of-hell type responses on terrorism tonight. But no one capped it with a weird, triumphant smile. In fact, we didn't detect any gaffes at all. (If you think Ron Paul's performance qualifies as a gaffe -- you just don't know Ron Paul.)
Overall, the field feels more set in stone than it did before. Of the lower-tier contenders, Gilmore, Huckabee and Tancredo asserted themselves the most, but probably not in a way that will set their campaigns on fire. Thompson was oddly quiet tonight, as was Brownback.
Mercifully, the next debate, this time among the Democrats, is nearly three weeks away. And, most everyone in Washington hopes, a wartime appropriations bill will make it out of Congress and past the president's desk by then. In the time since the debate began tonight, the Pentagon announced the deaths of two more soldiers, one in Iraq and one in Pakistan. Clocks are ticking all around. And no one on that stage knows this more than the guys not named Giuliani or McCain.
FOXNews.com is streaming its debate analysis. See Captain's Quarters, The Caucus, The Corner and The Fix for their takes on the debate.
10:34. And it's over. Hunter had just gotten a chance to sound the alarm on China, his other pet issue after immigration. The center of gravity in the 2008 election will likely remain the Iraq war, and there's little he and other candidates can do about that. But how much longer can the front-runners campaign on Iraq and fiscal policy alone? Shouldn't they have to give serious thought to, say, China's growing economic influence and military growth as well?
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GOP Debate Preview: Take Two
Tonight's FOX News-sponsored debate of the Republican presidential candidates in South Carolina comes less than two weeks after their first nationally televised debate in California. And not one of the hopefuls has reason to complain that their second meeting has come so quickly. (The Gate will be liveblogging the action at 8:45 p.m. EDT.)
The rapid-fire pace of questions at the previous forum, sponsored by MSNBC and the Politico, did not allow time for thoughtful responses, much less clarification of the occasional fumbled answer. Just ask former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, who seemed to support businesses that fire employees for being gay, and has been explaining the gaffe (a busted hearing aid, a bulging bladder) ever since.
Also see: Rudy Giuliani. The pro-choice former mayor of New York told moderator Chris Matthews that he would be just fine with Roe v. Wade being overturned, just so long as it was done based on "strict constructionist" principles. Constitutional lawyers everywhere scratched their heads, and Giuliani's rivals smelled the blood of a flip-flopper in the water. The Gate spoke with Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella the Monday following the May 3 meet-up. After some prodding, she said that Giuliani shares a fairly widespread belief (in legal academia, anyway) that Roe was poorly decided, and that a Federalist approach may have been preferable.
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May 14, 2007
WH 2008: Careful, Folks...
Remember that old saw about people in glass houses?
Last week, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama hit Detroit automakers where they lived -- literally -- which, as Newsweek's Keith Naughton noted, didn't exactly endear the home of the Big Three to the presidential hopeful. Now, it seems, Obama forgot one minor detail before he went up in front of the Detroit Economic Club to talk about reducing fuel emissions.
Start driving a hybrid car.
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May 03, 2007
Liveblogging The First GOP Debate
And... scene. Ronald Reagan wasn't the only ghost in the room tonight. Somewhere, perhaps on a sound stage in New York City, senator-turned-actor Fred Thompson senses a clamoring for his entree into this race. That nearly all participants went out of their way to liken themselves to Reagan mostly served to highlight the fact that, for GOP base voters, there wasn't a Gipper on the stage.
This yearning may have less to do with what Reagan actually accomplished than with Republicans needing a shot of Prozac in the form of a presidential candidate who makes them feel good about being Republicans again. As McCain's precarious position in the top tier shows, proximity to Bush may be toxic in that regard. Everyone else might be too big a question mark to fill that void.
More reason to cue the actor? That the media aren't tiring of speculating on this point may mean that none of the current candidates has convinced Republicans that he could be their champion in '08.
The Caucus, The Fix, On Politics and The Ticker also have wrap-ups of the debate.
9:46. Tancredo's back. He's a prime example of why debates like this can be unfair to some candidates. The immigration issue is one quite a few Republicans would rather paper over until after the 2008 election. Tancredo may be a long-shot candidate, but he has a loyal, energized group of supporters in Americans who want to stanch the tide of illegal immigrants making their way across the border. It's a security issue, an economic issue, and, to some Americans, a cultural issue.
In one of a handful of mentions of George W. Bush by the candidates, McCain praised the president's position on immigration. McCain and Democrat Edward Kennedy have co-sponsored a bill that enacts tighter controls at the border while providing illegal immigrants a path to citizenship -- a provision Tancredo decries as amnesty.
Polls show few Americans actually want all illegal immigrants rounded up and deported. But the problem for McCain and Bush is that, to a degree, the dictionary definition of amnesty applies. Pressing the candidates on that point could have given Tancredo and his comrade in arms on that issue, Duncan Hunter, a powerful moment in the debate. But it never happened.
9:45. Tancredo's turn on MSNBC, and -- oops. They lose him. The congressman just can't get a break tonight.
9:41. Spin room time; Brownback is first up on MSNBC. No, the candidates didn't all get a fair shot at getting their message across, and yes, the debate went a little too fast, the Kansas senator says. That's a good point, actually -- if fewer Politico.com reader questions had been asked, candidates could have been allotted more time for responses. Perhaps we'll see some Friday morning quarterbacking on the debate format tomorrow.
9:33. It's over, and the frustration on stage is palpable. Blame the number of candidates, blame the format -- there were no runaway performances here, which wasn't expected anyway, but the sheer lack of high points is a little surprising.
Romney, by the way, wins the race to rush over and greet Mrs. Reagan.
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