Super Saturday I: McCain Wins S.C. Primary In Nail-Biter
UPDATED.
Now you may call it a comeback: John McCain has taken the South Carolina Republican primary.
McCain pulled out a narrow victory over Mike Huckabee, 33 percent to 30 percent. Fred Thompson (16 percent) and Mitt Romney (15 percent) basically tied for third.
"You know, it took us a while, but what's eight years among friends?" McCain quipped in his trademark self-deprecating manner, referencing his South Carolina loss to President Bush in 2000. "As I have said before, I know that before I can win your vote, I must earn your respect. And the only way I know how to do that is by being honest with you. I have tried to do that throughout this campaign, and to put my trust in your willingness to give me your fair consideration. So far, it seems to be working out just fine," he continued, in a room filled with ecstatic volunteers and supporters who minutes before had been chanting "Mac is back! Mac is back!"
McCain also made sure to note -- or gloat, perhaps -- that the chattering classes had declared his campaign DOA just months ago. "I am aware that for the last 28 years, the winner of the South Carolina primary has been the nominee of our party. We have a ways to go, of course," he said. "There are some tough contests ahead, starting tomorrow in the state of Florida. But, my friends, we are well on our way tonight. And I feel very good about our chances."
The outcome in South Carolina tonight is meaningful for at least two big reasons. One is that neither Huckabee nor McCain directly engaged in a negative way in a state infamous for its down-and-dirty politics.
It's been one year since the unofficial kickoff of the 2008 presidential campaigns, and the state of play for the Republican nomination contest is remarkable both for what has changed and what hasn't.
Most obviously different are the front-runners. Mike Huckabee, nationally unknown this time in 2007, now rides comfortably in the top tier. He's always had the goods to do well in this campaign but faced long odds against better-funded celebrity candidates.
Both he and John McCain have smashed pundits' expectations and are now enjoying the attention and funding that front-runner status guarantees. But in many ways, the game for the Republicans hasn't changed one bit. This field still lacks a candidate who is all things to all GOP voters. The party isn't coalescing around one or two choices, as is happening in the Democratic race. Rather, the party is being divvied up like a pie, with each candidate representing just a slice of the big-picture GOP platform.
The primary vote is so fractured, in fact, that a brokered convention actually seems a distinct possibility. Yeah, yeah, we hear that every other cycle. Only, the longer you examine the differences among Huckabee, McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, the more completely, utterly irreconcilable those differences seem. MSNBC's Chris Matthews is taking even more heat this week for a comparison he made between the GOP and Iraq's warring factions. Matthews may have stumbled through that analogy rather inelegantly, but he is on to something.
Neither FOX nor MSNBC bothered to cover Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo's announcement earlier today that he was dropping out of the race for the White House. CNN went to it at first, then cut away so the anchor could discuss the pronunciation of the congressman's surname. This, despite the pivotal role he has played in this cycle's Republican nomination battle.
Reached by phone at his Des Moines hotel room, Tancredo sounded relaxed and content with his decision to close shop. His candidacy, after all, was from the beginning about holding the big-name guys to account on illegal immigration.
"I have dedicated 10 years of my public life to warning the nation of the perilous consequences of massive, uncontrolled illegal immigration," Tancredo told supporters at a press conference this afternoon. "This message unfortunately has fallen on deaf ears in the highest office in the land. Without a president who is committed to securing the nation, we will always remain in jeopardy."
Tancredo's announcement had been expected since yesterday. He said the urgency he felt on illegal immigration compelled him to launch his bid despite what "we knew at the time were incredibly long odds." A nationally obscure figure best known among anti-immigration hardliners, Tancredo said in April that he was entering the race because of "the field, the field."
More on what he told us about Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson after the jump.
Long-shot Republican presidential candidate Tom Tancredo will make a "major announcement" from Iowa today, his campaign said yesterday, inviting speculation that the Colorado congressman will drop out of the race. AP reports this morning that "a person close to Tancredo" has confirmed that he will abandon his bid for the GOP nomination.
A campaign spokesman said he could not provide details.
Tancredo is perhaps too much of a niche (and not well-enough known) candidate for this race, but he may take credit for ensuring that his battle cry, illegal immigration, is a decisive issue in the GOP nomination fight. His is perhaps the most hard-line position of the GOP contenders -- he has called for an end to legal immigration as well -- and that has forced many of the front-runners to sharpen their own more moderate positions to avoid appearing weak by comparison. In the CNN/YouTube debate last month, he accused his aping rivals of trying to "out-Tancredo Tancredo."
Ohthankgod: Liveblogging The Last GOP Debate Of 2007
4:37. In a post-debate interview on CNN, Huckabee said he apologized to Romney for the Jesus/devil remark while sticking to his earlier insistence that the remark had been taken out of context.
"He was gracious," Huckabee said of Romney's response.
There's nothing in the Times mag feature, by the way, to suggest Huckabee meant anything by that comment beyond an expression of genuine curiosity. Andrew Sullivanfound background for the question on the LDS Web site. Anyone who used to go to Sunday school knows that according to the Bible Satan/Lucifer/the devil was a fallen angel. Before he went evil he was just a regular angel, and in that sense, according to LDS, the devil and Jesus are brothers of a kind. OK, that's enough theology from me.
3:50. It's over, and insane as it sounds it feels too soon. That's a product of there having been a few too many non-contenders on the stage, no doubt.
Did uncommitted Iowans get what they needed here? Depends on whom they're leaning toward. Nothing bad happened to Huckabee, which is exactly what he needed as his viability star rises. Tancredo tried to portray Huck as an immigration flip-flopper, but... he's Tancredo. Lucky for Huckabee, Giuliani only goes there at grave risk to himself.
Romney didn't get a chance to zing Huckabee, but with that ad on the air he may not have needed to. And Huckabee was not asked about that Jesus/devil comment or his own attack-ish ad. The absence of theology in this debate may not be what some campaign prognosticators wanted, but it was classy, for immediate lack of a better word.
Univision Debate Postmortem: The Six Amigos (Plus Ron Paul)
So, our liveblog effort was a bust thanks to my lack of high-tech closed-captioning, but it doesn't look as if we missed a whole lot in the way of fireworks. Because the immigration debate has been alienating Latino voters, it was in everyone's interest last night to promote Brand GOP (as opposed to Brand Me). Most of the seven candidates present did that, but at the expense of specifics.
In other words, this was a very broad-strokes debate. The Republican candidates have been vying for months to prove just how tough they can be on closing the borders, etc., which is sort of mandatory, as they're trying to win over mostly white, conservative base voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Then they found themselves in Miami last night before a sea of Latino Americans -- the fastest-growing bloc of voters in the nation. In order to hew to what they'd been saying about immigration reform up until last night, some of which may not have gone over well in this crowd, they had to fiddle with their rhetoric.
That translated to lots of talk of freedom and no trading barbs on sanctuary cities or sanctuary mansions. The central mission was to not tick anyone off, and on that score they probably succeeded.
7:46. Just had to update with this: LOTS of applause in this crowd for a question about Hugo Chavez, Washington's least favorite South American leader. Have no idea what question was posed to Paul w/r/t to Chavez, but his response inspires waves and waves of boos. What just happened here? Tune in tomorrow to find out!
7:28. Well, I got my closed captioning to work -- and the captions are en Espanol. Sorry, readers, but looks like I'm going to have to abort this mission. Truly a first in Gate history.
That said, I am just dumbfounded that the producers would change the format of the Republican debate in such a way that many non-Spanish-speaking Americans would not be able to tune in. There are so many questions about where some of these candidates -- Romney, Giuliani -- really are on immigration reform. That isn't the case in the much more unified Democratic field -- questions about driver's licenses notwithstanding.
We'll have a roundup of reaction to the debate tomorrow. Daily Kos has a Spanish-speaker watching; you can check out their (hotly partisan) liveblog coverage here. The Corner was also stymied in its coverage attempt. Somewhere, Tom Tancredo is doing la cucaracha in front of a TV set.
When asked what issues matter most to them, Americans usually name the Iraq war, the economy and health care by a mile [PDF]. Yet immigration has been dominating the debates in both parties. What gives?
See GOP candidate Tom Tancredo's new campaign ad above. It is the most gruesomely graphic scare spot we've seen yet this cycle, and as much as you might want to turn away -- don't. This ad may well indicate that illegal immigration will be 2008's flag-burning/gay marriage, which in previous cycles had a very real effect on election outcomes despite Americans' protest that those concerns weren't part of their Election Day calculus.
End note. I rode CNN pretty hard earlier, but overall this was a very good forum for these candidates. The producers did a better job than last time at picking interesting and varied questions (with the requisite gotchas, of course), and the holdouts for facing the YouTube Generation -- Romney, Giuliani -- probably did themselves a favor by deciding to show up.
What will get the most attention tomorrow is the knife-fight between Giuilani and Romney that kicked things off. Their cases against each other -- that Giuliani ran a liberal government in a crazy city and that Romney is a political changeling who accomplished little as governor -- went public only recently, and tonight is the first time we saw the candidates make their arguments mano a mano. Their squabbling produced a good moment for Thompson, who got to play the grown-up in the room as he methodically parsed what was wrong with both their records on immigration.
But as those anti-Huckabee press releases indicate, Thompson's camp realizes their man is in trouble. The "Law & Order" star was the one who was supposed to swoop in and rescue stranded GOP voters; now it looks like Huckabee's doing the rescuing, among evangelical Iowans, anyway.
It's no secret that Tom Tancredo has a one-track mind when it comes to his bid for the GOP presidential nomination. The Colorado congressman has made it clear that he is trying to push the immigration issue to the forefront of the conversation, and in some states (particularly Iowa), he appears to be succeeding.
For those who haven't heard the message, the Tancredo campaign released a new TV ad this week in Iowa and New Hampshire that is sure to grab viewers' attention with provocative images of real terrorist attacks in London and Madrid and an imagined scenario in which an illegal immigrant leaves a bomb in a crowded shopping mall -- just in time for the holidays, no less.
See today's Ad Spotlight(subscription) for more on Tancredo's debut ad buy. Plus: Did you know John Edwards is the son of a mill worker? The Democratic hopeful is once again reminding South Carolina voters of his humble beginnings in a new TV ad.
With two months to go before the first-in-the-nation nomination ballots, voters in states not named Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina may be forgiven for feeling neglected by the candidates vying for the presidency. But try to look at it another way: At least you can ignore this very early election season if you want.
Those of us from early primary states don't have that luxury. Last weekend, I found that a trip back home was no vacation from my job. In fact, driving around Greenville, S.C., provided ample evidence that while I may report from Washington on campaign activities, the crux of the action is quite far away.
Take, for instance, the time-honored tradition of yard signs. They're not as high-budget as TV or Web ads (although I did spy a Mitt Romney spot or two when I turned on the tube). During election season, the durable outdoor signs line roadways as well as lawns.
Based on a very unscientific count, the two most active candidates in the very conservative upstate seemed to be former Massachusetts Gov. Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul. The candidates were about even on road signs alone, although Paul -- known for his resourceful supporters -- also had signs along the freeway that declared a "Ron Paul Revolution." However, many of the Romney signs were seen near Bob Jones University, where the university's president recently created a furor when he announced his support for the Mormon candidate. Then there was the lone sign for Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, that predictably read: "No Amnesty For Illegals. Tancredo For President."
Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., will not seek re-election regardless of what happens in his long-shot presidential campaign, he told the Rocky Mountain News Sunday. "It's the fact that I really believe I have done all I can do in the House, especially about the issue (immigration) about which I care greatly," Tancredo told the paper.
His decision creates a vacancy in the solidly conservative and Republican 6th District, which includes suburban areas south and southeast of Denver. While Tancredo's presidential campaign remains just a blip on the political radar, he has suggested he might challenge Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar in 2010, largely over his signature issue of immigration.
Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Michael McNulty of New York is expected to confirm today that he, too, will not seek re-election. With the Tancredo and McNulty announcements, 17 House members have announced they will not be back in the next Congress, with 11 retirements and six members running for other offices.
- CongressDaily
Photo courtesy of Flickr user VictoryNH: Protect Our Primary
The highly anticipated season premiere of "Grey's Anatomy" opened with --
Oops, wrong post.
In case you missed it, and you probablydid, there was a Republican presidential debate last night at Morgan State University in Baltimore. As with the Democrats' turn in June, radio and talk-show host Tavis Smiley was on hand to host the All-American Presidential Forum on PBS before a mostly black audience on the historically black campus.
What was different this time around? The four empty podiums on stage.
Out of the belief that the gains made by the GOP under President Bush's leadership have been hopelessly eroded (by President Bush's leadership), or the belief that with independents out of reach, their socially conservative, mostly white base is more crucial than ever, front-runners Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson skipped the event.
The six candidates chasing them were smart enough to take advantage.
Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are, apparently.
The leading Republican presidential candidates cited "scheduling conflicts" as their reason for skipping tonight's All-American Presidential Forum on PBS.
"I'm puzzled by their decision. I can't speak for them. I think it's a mistake," said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earlier this week.
President Bushalso weighed in on the matter last week: "My advice to whoever will be our nominee is to reach out to the African-American community as well as other communities, because I believe we've got a very strong record when it comes to" issues affecting them.
The FOX Republican Debate; Thompson's Tease On Leno
Last night, the GOP candidates for president once again gathered before the podiums -- this time in New Hampshire -- to talk Iraq, immigration, the economy and more. As always, The Gate was watching.
Score a few for McCain. It's hard to envision the Arizona senator getting much further in this race after the losses he's suffered this summer, and yet it's equally hard to accept that John McCain's candidacy might be over so soon. He has the most storied military and foreign policy experience out of everyone on that stage, and all the change vs. experience talk this cycle has obscured the fact that this election is really about both.
Experience is the change. The Iraq war was planned and managed by civilians with no substantive military experience who ignored the advice of the Colin Powells and Brent Scowcrofts of the nation. Yes, McCain supported the invasion, but he was among the first to spot flaws in the postwar planning, and he says he's committed to leaving Iraq better than it was, which means he's both critical and supportive of ongoing operations there.
Whereas his earlier platform on Iraq too closely echoed the perceived blindness from the White House, costing him independent voters, McCain seems to have found a more credible argument for the war. "The people in New Hampshire are sad and angry over our failures in Iraq," McCain said last night. "I want our troops home. But I want them home with honor, otherwise we will face genocide and catastrophe in the region." The first point is clearly true, and voters may be coming around to the second point. Just ask the Democrats, who've been forced to temper their get-out-now calls.
Another Reason To Send Your Child To Private School
OK, that headline was meant somewhat in jest. But the Arizona Republic has an incredibly depressing story about the state of English teaching in public schools. (Hat tip: VDARE via The Corner.)
A five-year review of English classrooms at all levels found that Arizona English teachers had a poor grasp of the language, which explains why test scores have declined in recent years (the reason for the study in the first place). Some of the more frightening snippets heard in class:
"If you have problems, to who are you going to ask?"
"Read me first how it was before."
And last but not least: "How do we call it in English?"
In a scathing critique of the latest battle between GOP presidential hopefuls Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney over who's tougher on illegal immigrants, the Wall Street Journal editorial board this morning wondered(subscription) if the candidates were "competing for the Republican Presidential nomination, or for the job of vacation replacement for Lou Dobbs?"
While CNN's popular populist probably has something to do with the front-runners' new immigration obsession, Giuliani and Romney are actually taking their cues from a much closer source: fellow Republican presidential candidate Tom Tancredo.
When the Colorado congressman best known for his hard-line stance on immigration declared his candidacy back in April, he made no effort to hide his intentions. "The political elite in Washington have chosen to ignore this phenomenon," he said of illegal immigration. "You look" at the Republican field "and you see no one is going to make this the primary issue of their campaign."
WH '08: You Don't Have To Go Home, But You Can't Stay Here
The crowded presidential campaign fields can be headache-inducing, and that has some political pundits wishing more candidates would make like Tommy Thompsonand just leave.
Today, the National Review's Rich Lowry calls on Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback to pack his bags and go.
Calling Brownback's abortion platform "the very embodiment of a tendency toward impractical perfectionism among pro-lifers," Lowry points to fellow pro-lifer Mike Huckabee's surprise second-place finish at the Iowa Republican Straw Poll. "Huckabee has shined in the debates, is a natural orator, and has considerable crossover appeal to the media. None of this can be said of Brownback," Lowry scoffs.
After spending months (and millions) touring the state of Iowa in his bid to woo caucus voters the old-fashioned way, GOP presidential hopeful Tommy Thompson is packing up and heading home.
True to his word, the former Wisconsin governor took a good, hard look at his prospects for winning the GOP nomination after finishing a disappointing sixth in this weekend's Iowa straw poll and decided it was time to move on.
"I have no regrets about running," Thompson said Sunday in a statement. "I felt my record as governor of Wisconsin and secretary of Health and Human Services gave me the experience I needed to serve as president, but I respect the decision of the voters."
Shortly after yesterday's Republican presidential candidates debate in Iowa kicked off, this Gater found herself applauding. Was it for Mitt Romney? Tom Tancredo? Ron Paul?
None of the above. The Gate was clapping for ABC News' George Stephanopoulos, who dug out a few of those negative campaign tactics voters so despise and forced offending candidates to explain themselves.
First on the dock: Sam Brownback, a hero of pro-life conservatives who can't seem to get a leg up in the crowded race for the GOP nod. In an effort to claw upward in the polls, he's zeroed in on Romney, who's positioned himself as the only true social conservative in the upper tier of candidates. Stephanopoulos played Brownback's campaign robo-call to Iowans attacking Romney for his prior pro-choice stance.
The Gate tries very hard to not cross the "advocacy" line, but some recent (un)developments have forced us to take a stand.
We want a Republican YouTube debate.
No, the format of Monday's Democratic forum wasn't "revolutionary," as CNN would have you believe, but it was both informative and entertaining. The kids need a little cheese sauce with their broccoli sometimes, and we bet that the YouTube format had them more engaged than in any of the previous face-offs.
So listen, Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney and Tom Tancredo: Sign on to the Sept. 17 CNN/YouTube debate, already.
We get that campaign time is an increasingly precious commodity. Republicans, not to mention the rest of the country, aren't really hot on any of you right now. But how could taking occasionally quirky questions from real-live Americans hurt? If anything, you get a platform on which to let your good humor and personality shine. We urge you to seize this opportunity.
Note that it's a group of Republicans who are circulating a petition asking you to reconsider. Conservatives ridiculedHillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards for skipping the planned FOX News Democratic debate. Gentleman, do not cut and run from this chance to show Americans a) that you are running for president (a lot of them don't know this yet) and b) that you are not afraid of the occasional curveball. Please follow Tommy Thompson's lead and show us you're not scared of a talking snowman.
The Gate isn't signing any petitions for obvious reasons, but we encourage our readers to send this along: http://www.savethedebate.com/.
Obama, Tancredo (?!) Turn Heads At NAACP Convention
Nine presidential candidates addressed the NAACP's annual conference today in Detroit -- eight Democrats and a lone Republican, immigration enforcer Tom Tancredo, congressman from Colorado.
Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., roused the crowd by juxtaposing President Bush's commutation of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby with the 10-year prison sentence handed to Georgia's Genarlow Wilson, a young black man convicted of child molestation at age 17 after having consensual sex at a party. "We know we have more work to do when Scooter Libby gets no prison time and a 21-year-old honor student, who hadn't even committed a felony, gets 10 years in prison," he said.
By all accounts, Obama received the loudest response, but his Democratic rivals were received warmly as well, particularly Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C. Even Tancredo received a standing ovation, but according to the Detroit Free Press, that was "more because he was the only Republican to show up, rather than approving of his stance on issues."
Most everyone tuning in to last night's CNN-sponsored Republican forum in New Hampshire already had him on their minds, so former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson did us all a favor by calling out the ghost at the very beginning: "My name is Thompson, Tommy. I’m the candidate, not the actor."
The actor Thompson being, of course, Fred Thompson -- star of "In The Line Of Fire," "Law and Order," and lately, the fevered dreams of many a GOP primary voter. Unfortunately for Tommy Thompson, that joke may have backfired, as National Review's Katherine Jean Lopezpoints out. By the time the next Republican debate arrives in August, it's a safe bet more than one of the third tier -- Tommy Thompson, Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul -- will have dropped out.
Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, by contrast, have a better chance of hanging in as the two candidates who represent the hard right on immigration reform. Both have passionate followings, and the latest skirmish in the Senate over a compromise overhaul is only angering their supporters.
Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney may be the only sure bets to last through the summer. But purity is still an issue for this party, more so, arguably, than for the Democrats, and none of these men should count on an easy ride to the primaries.
End note. Tonight's debate felt more substantive than the last meeting of the Republican 10. Candidates got the same 30 seconds or so to answer questions, but there were fewer questions this time, which made the pacing seem more orderly. The questions t
UPDATED.
UPDATED.
A campaign spokesman said he could not provide details. 
4:37. In a post-debate interview on CNN, Huckabee said he apologized to Romney for the Jesus/devil remark while sticking to his earlier insistence that the remark had been taken out of context.
So, our liveblog effort 
7:46. Just had to update with this: LOTS of applause in this crowd for a question about Hugo Chavez, Washington's least favorite South American leader. Have no idea what question was posed to Paul w/r/t to Chavez, but his response inspires waves and waves of boos. What just happened here? Tune in tomorrow to find out!
End note. I rode CNN pretty hard earlier, but overall this was a very good forum for these candidates. The producers did a better job than last time at picking interesting and varied questions (with the requisite gotchas, of course), and the holdouts for facing the YouTube Generation -- Romney, Giuliani -- probably did themselves a favor by deciding to show up.
Out of the belief that the gains made by the GOP under President Bush's leadership have been hopelessly eroded (by President Bush's leadership), or the belief that with independents out of reach, their socially conservative, mostly white base is more crucial than ever, front-runners Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson skipped the event.
Experience is the change. The Iraq war was planned and managed by civilians with no substantive military experience who ignored the advice of the Colin Powells and Brent Scowcrofts of the nation. Yes, McCain supported the invasion, but he was among the first to spot flaws in the postwar planning, and he says he's committed to leaving Iraq better than it was, which means he's both critical and supportive of ongoing operations there.
A five-year review of English classrooms at all levels found that Arizona English teachers had a poor grasp of the language, which explains why test scores have declined in recent years (the reason for the study in the first place). Some of the more frightening snippets heard in class: 
While CNN's popular populist probably has something to do with the front-runners' new immigration obsession, Giuliani and Romney are actually taking their cues from a much closer source: fellow Republican presidential candidate Tom Tancredo.
Today, the National Review's Rich Lowry calls on Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback to pack his bags and go. 
After spending months (and millions) touring the state of Iowa in his bid to woo caucus voters the old-fashioned way, GOP presidential hopeful Tommy Thompson is packing up and heading home. 
No, the format of 
Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., roused the crowd by juxtaposing President Bush's commutation of I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby with the 10-year prison sentence handed to Georgia's Genarlow Wilson, a young black man convicted of child molestation at age 17 after having consensual sex at a party. "We know we have more work to do when Scooter Libby gets no prison time and a 21-year-old honor student, who hadn't even committed a felony, gets 10 years in prison," he said.