February 26, 2008

Obama-McCain Squabble Injected Into Army Readiness Hearing

A controversial anecdote relayed by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in last week's Texas debate wended its way into a Senate Armed Forces hearing on Army readiness today.

Obama claimed that he'd "heard from an Army captain who was the head of a rifle platoon" that was sent to Afghanistan grossly undermanned and underequipped. "They were actually capturing Taliban weapons, because it was easier to get Taliban weapons than it was for them to get properly equipped by our current commander in chief," Obama said during Thursday night's debate.

Lindsey Graham, who lately has been stumping hard for Republican John McCain, relayed the story to Army Secretary Peter Geren and Army Chief of Staff William Casey during the hearing. "Has Sen. Obama talked to you or anyone in the department about this?" the South Carolina Republican asked.

"I have not discussed this with Sen. Obama," Geren replied, before handing the baton to Casey.

"As we looked into this, the best we could tell was this incident occurred back in 2003 and 2004," Casey said. "We talked to the brigade commander, looked at readiness reports. The brigade was manned over 100 percent and stayed 100 percent manned when they were there."

Continue reading "Obama-McCain Squabble Injected Into Army Readiness Hearing"

Posted at 12:26 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Democrats, Donald Rumsfeld, Iraq, John McCain, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Republicans, Robert Gates, Senate, WH 2008
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February 22, 2008

Iraq: Turkish Invasion, Mahdi Cease-Fire, Troop Withdrawals

There are several big stories coming out of Iraq this morning:

Turkish troops launch ground incursion. The Turkish military announced this morning that it had begun a "cross-border ground operation" into northern Iraq "backed by the Air Force" last night. The operation, which is believed to involve thousands of soldiers, is targeting Kurdish rebels viewed as a threat to Turkey's security. The news has been met with caution and alarm by U.S. and EU officials.

Al-Sadr extends cease-fire. Recognizing a significant reduction in violence, radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr today instructed his followers in the Mahdi Army militia to extend their freeze on attacks on rival groups and U.S. forces for another six months. U.S. commanders are welcoming al-Sadr's decision to prolong the truce, which began in late August 2007, as they continue to try and build on the gains of the surge strategy.

Gates says withdrawals to continue after "pause." Speaking to reporters en route to Australia, which recently announced it was pulling one-third of its troops out of Iraq, Defense Secretary Robert Gates sounded optimistic that the U.S. could continue its own withdrawals after commanders conduct a brief re-evaluation of the security situation this summer.

Can we all agree that the surge is working? Apparently not. In today's Washington Post, columnist Charles Krauthammer charges that Democrats are willfully ignoring evidence that "we are winning" in Iraq thanks to the influx of U.S. troops last year. But Michael Kinsley counters that the success of the surge should be gauged by one simple test: "Has it allowed us to reduce troop levels to below where they were when it started? And the answer is no."

Posted at 8:22 AM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East, Military
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February 19, 2008

Military Poll: Armed Forces -- And U.S. -- Highly Vulnerable

Is the military broken?

That is a question the Pentagon and Washington have been asking since late 2003, when then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld inadvertently signaled that the country was in for a "long, hard slog" in Iraq and Afghanistan. Soldiers themselves have been generally more positive about their mission than American civilians are. A new survey of military officers shows that while most maintain that the military is not broken, it cannot persevere under present conditions for long.

More than 3,400 active and retired officers -- 10 percent of whom served in Iraq, Afghanistan or both -- were surveyed by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for a New American Security [PDF], a centrist think tank.

Just 42 percent of respondents described the military as broken, compared with 56 percent who disagreed. But 60 percent said the military was weaker. Just 25 percent said the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan had helped the military grow stronger.

The results are largely in line with other surveys of military officers, such as those conducted by the Military Times publishing group. But as warnings from the military about its own health have intensified over the years, the strain placed on active-duty troops has only grown. Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced the new 15/12 deployment schedule last April, and there are no indications that those rotations will be eased this year, even as troop levels are brought back down to pre-surge levels. If anything, the Pentagon appears to be hinting that they will not.

When asked whether the war in Iraq had stretched the military "dangerously thin," a whopping 88 percent of respondents said yes. More gravely, the officers said, the military is currently ill-prepared to respond to other major conflicts. More than 80 percent said it was unreasonable to expect the military to engage in another war today. And on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning completely ready, the officers gave America's readiness to go to war with Iran a 4.5.

That may be because many see the current mission in Iraq as untenable: Nearly three-quarters said the goals set for the military by civilian leadership after the fall of Saddam Hussein were unreasonable.

Continue reading "Military Poll: Armed Forces -- And U.S. -- Highly Vulnerable"

Posted at 3:35 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Asia, Bush Administration, CIA, Congress, David Petraeus, Donald Rumsfeld, Iraq, Middle East, Military, Robert Gates
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February 14, 2008

Iraqi Lawmakers Break Impasse Over Three Key Bills

After months of gridlock in Baghdad, Iraqi lawmakers overcame their differences to pass three key laws yesterday, including two legislative benchmarks set by the U.S. Congress to measure the country's political progress amid the continuing U.S. troop presence there. The passage of the three bills is being hailed as a significant development toward reconciliation, particularly among Iraq's Sunni and Shiite factions, although analysts caution that serious hurdles remain.

The three measures passed yesterday include approval of the $48 million budget for 2008, an amnesty bill for Iraqi prisoners, and legislation outlining provincial powers and paving the way for elections later this year. The latter two are considered crucial benchmarks of Iraqi political progress.

To help smooth passage after months of bitter debate and political deadlock, the three provisions were bundled together into a single bill, which allowed members dissatisfied with one or more measures to accept them as a whole.

Debate on the package was not without drama, though. Several lawmakers walked out when provisions they disagreed with hit the floor. But the New York Times reports that most returned in time to cast their votes for the final package, and "the jubilation at the conclusion of the session and the atmosphere of amity contrasted sharply with the stinging accusations and walkouts that have characterized many of the negotiations in recent weeks." As recently as Tuesday, the Sunni speaker was threatening to disband Parliament over its inability to legislate effectively.

Continue reading "Iraqi Lawmakers Break Impasse Over Three Key Bills"

Posted at 11:29 AM
Posted to: Iran, Iraq, Kurds, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East
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February 12, 2008

Calls Intensify For Gaza Invasion

Angry Israelis are pressing for retaliation against Palestinian militants in Gaza, even as the repercussions of the humiliating 2006 war with Hezbollah are still being felt.

Dozens of residents from Sderot, an Israeli town that sees a near-daily barrage of rocket attacks from Gaza, traveled to Jerusalem over the weekend to protest perceived government inaction. Israeli Cabinet members, including Defense Minister Ehud Barak, have joined the cries for harsher tactics against Gaza militants, particularly after two brothers, ages 8 and 19, were seriously injured while fleeing rocket fire with their family.

Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit advised the military to give one Gaza neighborhood a day to empty out, and then to destroy it, BBC News reports. The Israeli army has yet to make a significant military incursion into Gaza, despite its nearly complete isolation from the friendlier regime in the West Bank and the world community.

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Posted at 11:01 AM
Posted to: Fatah, Hamas, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Palestinians
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February 06, 2008

What's The Point Of NATO, Anyway?

The U.S. and Britain have been fighting an uphill battle to win deeper commitments from NATO allies in Afghanistan. With recent independent reports warning that Afghanistan may be tipping back into failed statehood, and a critical upcoming vote in Canada that could determine that country's ongoing security contributions, NATO member nations are facing a kind of do-or-die moment.

The question at hand is: What is NATO's mission in the 21st century?

NATO was formed during the Cold War to fend off the Soviet threat. It was a mutual security pact, in which an attack on one was to be perceived as an attack on all.

After the 9/11 attacks, it became clear that al-Qaida was now the biggest threat facing the West. With little debate, NATO's mission was updated for the 21st century, and forces were sent to Afghanistan.

More than six years later, the success of NATO's fight against the Taliban and al-Qaida is in dispute. The war in Iraq sapped resources from Afghanistan, and more importantly sapped confidence in the United States' and Britain's leadership roles there. Nations have withdrawn forces over the last several years, and now the fighting -- and dying -- falls disproportionately on the U.S., Britain, the Netherlands and Canada.

Member nations privately blame the U.S. and Britain for being so preoccupied with the war in Iraq -- overwhelmingly unpopular among member nations -- that they delivered a seemingly half-hearted effort in Afghanistan. Washington and 10 Downing Street vehemently deny this is the case.

Without positing it directly, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is challenging member nations to remember the point of NATO and step up their contributions. "I do think the alliance is facing a real test here. And it is a test of the alliance's strength," she said at a press conference with British Foreign Secretary David Miliband today.

Continue reading "What's The Point Of NATO, Anyway?"

Posted at 5:30 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Al-Qaida, Bush Administration, Europe, Germany, Iraq, Middle East, Military, Pakistan, President Bush, Robert Gates, Terrorism, U.K.
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February 04, 2008

Suicide Bombing Comes In Time Of Weakness For Olmert

The first suicide bombing that Israel has seen in more than a year killed a 20-year-old woman and injured 11 others, and comes at a particularly delicate time in renewed Mideast peace negotiations.

The attack was claimed by al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, the unofficial terrorist wing of the Fatah Party, and took place at a shopping center in the southern town of Dimona. A second bomber was shot and killed by police before he could detonate explosives strapped to his body.

"Monday's terror attack gives us a painful reminder that we must be vigilant and maintain our readiness in all areas," said Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. "We are waging a war on terror. It is continuing without bounds and we will get to everyone involved in terror activity."

According to BBC News, an al-Aqsa spokesman hinted that the breach along the Gaza-Egypt border made the bombing mission possible. Gaza militants blew up the border two weeks ago amid an Israeli-enforced blockade that made travel to purchase goods and visit family members nearly impossible.

Egyptian security forces finally sealed the last remaining breach on Sunday, but not without violent exchanges with some lagging Palestinians. Officials haven't yet confirmed whether the Dimona bombers entered Israel via Egypt, but the bombing has already led to calls for suspending peace negotiations with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

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Posted at 12:45 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Fatah, Hamas, Israel, Middle East, Palestinians, President Bush, Terrorism
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February 01, 2008

Female Bombers Hit Baghdad Pet Markets

Concurrent suicide bombings struck pet bazaars in Baghdad today. Casualty reports are varying widely, but media sources are reporting anywhere from 45 to 70 people dead and up to 80 injured.

Both bombings were reportedly carried out by women. The first detonated an explosive device beneath her traditional black garment in the al-Ghazl market, an area targeted by bombers several times before. The attack was Baghdad's deadliest since April. A government spokesman told the media that the woman was not an Iraqi.

The second bombing was carried out in a Shiite area in southern Baghdad, where a woman detonated a bomb in a crowded bird market. Authorities originally said a bomb had been hidden in a box of birds, but they later determined it was a suicide attack.

AP reports that at least four other women have carried out suicide bombings since November.

Posted at 9:35 AM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East
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January 31, 2008

Army Still Lags On Mental Health Help For Soldiers

The Army's suicide rate jumped 20 percent in 2007, an apparent indicator that the military's efforts to provide adequate mental health assistance to soldiers serving in Iraq and Afghanistan are still falling short.

According to internal reports, there were 89 confirmed suicides and 32 suspected suicides last year, which was also the deadliest year for U.S. troops in Iraq so far. AP reports that about 34 of the suicides took place in Iraq.

The number of suicide attempts and self-inflicted injuries also spiked dramatically. About 2,100 soldiers tried to kill or injure themselves last year, compared with about 350 in 2002, the Washington Post reports.

Military health care specialists have openly admitted that they were unprepared for the length and scope of the war in Iraq. The nearly five-year-long war entered a crunch phase last year, when DOD ordered longer deployment schedules with shorter breaks in between. Some soldiers are on their fourth tours in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003.

Continue reading "Army Still Lags On Mental Health Help For Soldiers"

Posted at 6:43 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Congress, David Petraeus, Iraq, Middle East, Military, Robert Gates
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Deficits Could Force Domestic Spending Freeze

UPDATED.

President Bush is seeking a freeze on nearly all domestic spending along with a plan to squeeze savings out of entitlement programs in his 2009 budget, AP reports.

Federal deficits are approaching the $400 billion mark this year, in part because of ongoing spending in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and in part because of a pending economic stimulus package, which is expected to cost around $150 billion and double this year's deficit.

When Bush presents his budget on Monday, he will call for $178 billion in savings from Medicare and $17 billion for Medicaid. Much of the Medicare savings would come from freezing reimbursement rates to health care providers for three years, according to AP.

The overall slowdown of the economy and an onslaught of negative economic indicators mean lower revenues this year, and the White House is expected to deliver a worse revenue prediction than a recent forecast from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Bush's budget is not likely to be well received in Congress, this being an election year. As the ripple effects of the housing bust continue to be felt in households, the new deficit estimates put Republicans running for re-election at a real disadvantage.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats appear ready to slash the price tag on their economic stimulus proposals. A stimulus package is expected on Bush's desk by Feb. 15.

Posted at 4:05 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Congress, Economy, Iraq, Middle East, President Bush, Taxes
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January 28, 2008

Liveblogging President Bush's Final State Of The Union Address

End note. SOTU affairs are always a laundry list, and few expect them to deliver poetry. This year's address (full text) did lack the rhetorical punch of previous years, particularly Bush's first SOTU address following 9/11, which received very high marks.

If there is one character trait that describes this president, it is determination-bordering-on-
stubbornness. He has largely ignored polls and the punditry, and he only changed tacks in Iraq when the calls for a change in course permeated his own administration. Plenty of Americans didn't tune in to this speech tonight, on the assumption Bush is a lame duck. That is probably not the case, at least as far as the legislature is concerned.

With his veto threat and the executive order coming Tuesday, Bush is asserting himself in a dramatic way. The rate of federal spending under Bush's watch is triple that of the Clinton administration. That Bush is positioning himself to put a foot down on pork-barrel spending was pretty unexpected in his final year in office. We'll be watching to see how it pans out.

As for Bush's various claims in tonight's speech, NPR's reporters have been posting fact checks all evening. See their corrections on the tax cuts, FISA, Iraq and entitlement reform. Good night.

10:27. A somewhat unexpected criticism of the president here: "In spite of the attempts to convince us that we are divided as a people, a new American majority has come together. We are tired of leaders who rather than asking what we can do for our country, ask nothing of us at all.

"We are Americans sharing a belief in something greater than ourselves, a nation coming together to meet challenges and find solutions; to share sacrifices and share prosperity; and focus, once again, not only on the individual good but on the common good."

It should come as little surprise that Sebelius has endorsed Barack Obama. This speech reflects Democrats' palpable eagerness to move the country well away from the Bush era.

Continue reading "Liveblogging President Bush's Final State Of The Union Address"

Posted at 10:47 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Climate Change, Congress, Democrats, Economy, Hillary Rodham Clinton, House, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Senate, Taxes, Terrorism, Trade, Veterans, WH 2008
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Troops Watch: No Answers Until Summer

When Gen. David Petraeus returns to Washington in March, he will brief Defense Secretary Robert Gates on the progress of the U.S. troop drawdown. He'll be asked how units are faring in Iraq as more of them leave, and whether the targeted reduction -- from about 160,000 to the pre-surge 130,000 by this summer -- should progress as planned.

What he won't be asked is whether troop levels can be brought down further.

On the one hand, that isn't surprising. The answer is clearly no, although the Pentagon hasn't publicly confirmed that. Violence against U.S. troops is back down to 2005 levels -- which isn't great, but it beats the carnage of 2006 and 2007.

The main U.S. objective moving forward is to help Iraq rebuild its military and security forces. In an interview with the New York Times published Jan. 15, Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul Qadir forecast that Iraq's military forces would not be able to fend off internal and external threats independently until at least 2018.

That lines up with many U.S. commanders' assessments that significant assistance from their own country will be required in Iraq for at least a decade. Right now, the presidential candidates are bickering over whether the surge is working. A better debating point would be whether the U.S. has a responsibility to help Iraq become a fully sovereign nation or whether Washington can live with the very real possibility that all the gains made last year could be undone if American politicians oppose commanders' recommendations.

Continue reading "Troops Watch: No Answers Until Summer"

Posted at 6:18 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, David Petraeus, Democrats, Donald Rumsfeld, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Republicans, Robert Gates, WH 2008
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January 25, 2008

The New New Way Forward In Iraq

To non-hyperpartisans who've been following developments in Iraq, it's been clear for some time that there will be a significant U.S. presence there going into the next decade, regardless of which party rules the White House next year. Though both sides called a de facto truce in Congress following the anticlimactic testimony of Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker in September, lawmakers appear to be getting their sea legs back on the war debate.

A skirmish is just now brewing over the White House's negotiations with the Iraqi government concerning the longer-term American posture there. "Status of forces" agreements are standard issue with allies; we have one with more than 120 countries, according to the State Department. Iraq, of course, is not just any country, and Democrats are nervous that the new agreement will lock the U.S. into a deeper, more long-term engagement than they'd like.

It's already playing on the campaign trail. In a debate in Las Vegas last week, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama agreed to pursue legislation requiring President Bush to request congressional approval for the Iraq status of forces agreement. "I think we have to do everything we can to prevent President Bush from binding the hands of the next president," Clinton said.

Presidents usually don't have to bring those agreements before Congress, but administration officials acknowledged to the Washington Post that they might have to submit the Iraq agreement for lawmakers' approval.

Continue reading "The New New Way Forward In Iraq"

Posted at 1:08 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Constitution, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Robert Gates, Terrorism, WH 2008
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January 24, 2008

Freedom Falters Worldwide

If 2007 seemed like a bad year for democracy, that's because it was, according to new data from Freedom House, a U.S.-based organization that monitors and promotes freedom around the world. The group recently released its report on 2007, citing a "notable setback for global freedom" for the second consecutive year.

Freedom House uses its own set of criteria to divide nations into three categories: "free," "partly free" and "not free." In 2007, one-fifth of the world's nations experienced a decline in freedom, the group says. Although the number of countries in the "not free" category did not grow over the last year, "there were many changes within these broad categories" that demonstrate an alarming trend, a press release announcing the report claims. These reversals were seen in countries across the globe -- from sub-Saharan Africa to the former Soviet Union.

Nearly four times as many countries saw declines in levels of freedom as showed improvement. Dishearteningly, several countries that had been experiencing progress toward democracy in recent years, such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nigeria and Kenya, took steps backward in 2007. Two former Soviet countries that underwent "color revolutions" fairly recently -- Kyrgyzstan and Georgia -- also reversed track last year, Freedom House reports.

Continue reading "Freedom Falters Worldwide"

Posted at 2:16 PM
Posted to: Africa, Asia, China, Europe, Iran, Kenya, Middle East, Pakistan
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Mosul Police Chief Killed

A suicide bomber killed the head of the Mosul police force this morning. Brigadier Gen. Saleh Mohammed Hassan was touring the site of yesterday's massive bombing when he was approached by a man wearing an explosives vest under an Iraqi police uniform. Two officers were also killed.

Police had been investigating the three-story building destroyed yesterday due to reports that it was being used to stockpile weapons or produce bombs. It had been rigged with explosives, and because it was located in the middle of a city block, its destruction injured scores of people. At least 30 were killed and more than 130 wounded.

Mosul is becoming a "gathering point and growing target for Sunni insurgents," the Washington Post reports, and the London Guardian calls it "the last urban centre with a strong al-Qaida presence." See the stories for more details.

Posted at 7:52 AM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Iraq, Middle East, Terrorism
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January 23, 2008

Gazans Pour Into Egypt

UPDATED.

Tens of thousands of Palestinians entered Egypt today, after bombers destroyed a seven-mile stretch of wall separating the country from a Gaza Strip border town. Israel has been stopping the flow of supplies into the area in response to continued rocket attacks from militants, and many Palestinians in Rafah and other Gaza cities have gone without adequate food, electricity and medicine from Israel for five days.

The U.N. Security Council convened an emergency session yesterday, one day after Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert "to express concern about the situation," Bloomberg News reports. The U.N. has been much more critical of Israel's treatment of the Palestinians than the U.S. or its Western allies.

About a million and a half Palestinians live in the Gaza Strip, which is currently controlled by the militant group Hamas. Although Hamas didn't take responsibility for knocking down the wall, the group expressed tacit approval for its destruction by controlling traffic across the border and not making a move to prevent people from moving back and forth. Egypt had previously refused to open the Rafah crossing, but after the wall was destroyed, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said he had ordered the military not to stop the Palestinians immediately.

"I told them to let them come in and eat and buy food and then return them later as long as they were not carrying weapons," he told reporters in Cairo.

Gunmen began assaulting the metal wall before dawn this morning -- not long after Israel had begun re-supplying Gaza's power plant with fuel last night in an effort to avert a humanitarian crisis.

Posted at 12:24 PM
Posted to: Hamas, Israel, Middle East, Palestinians
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January 22, 2008

U.N. Power Players Huddle On Iran

The U.N. Security Council meets in Berlin today to try to reach a consensus stance toward Iran -- a tough job, due to the differing positions of the five permanent members of the council, as well as Germany. President Bush emphasized the need to take a unified position opposing Iran on his recent sweep of the Middle East, about a month after a U.S. report suggested Iran had suspended its nuclear program years ago.

"Much of the momentum was lost when the National Intelligence Estimate came out,'' one analyst told Bloomberg News. "I think they will find it difficult to regain the momentum soon.''

Two permanent members of the Security Council, China and Russia, are opposed to taking further action against Tehran, and either country could veto new sanctions proposed by other members of the group.

Bloomberg has more background, and AP explains the goals of the talks.

Posted at 8:04 AM
Posted to: Iran, Middle East, U.N.
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January 18, 2008

Nicholas Burns To Leave State Dept.

Nicholas Burns, No. 3 at the State Department and chief U.S. negotiator in the push to increase international sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, is leaving the agency after 26 years of foreign service, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced today. The undersecretary of state for political affairs is officially leaving his post in March, citing personal reasons for his departure.

"This is a very bittersweet time for us because Nick Burns has decided that it is time for him to retire,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in announcing his resignation. “He has decided that it’s the right moment to go back to family concerns.”

President Bush plans to nominate U.S. Ambassador to Russia William Burns (no relation) for the post. Meanwhile, Nicholas Burns has pledged to "help push the US-India civilian nuclear deal to conclusion and also help in efforts by the Bush administration to secure an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement" as part of his retirement, Agence France-Presse reports.

AP and the New York Times have more details on this story. The State Department has a biography of Burns here.

Posted at 2:50 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Iran, Middle East, President Bush
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January 17, 2008

Gates Goes To The Media

UPDATED.

Several news items are coming from an NPR interview with Defense Secretary Robert Gates broadcast this morning. Some highlights:

No more troops sent to Afghanistan. Gates announced earlier this week that he would ask President Bush for about 3,000 Marines to be sent to Afghanistan, after EU nations would not step up their NATO commitments, but he told NPR that there were no plans to send any more U.S. troops after the additional 3,000.

Iran does not pose an immediate threat. Gates called Iran a "challenge" but not a "direct military threat" to the United States.

Iraq is a "long-term" problem. Declining to make predictions on specific troop levels, Gates said he was heartened to see the Democratic presidential candidates demur on specific numbers as well and added that his goal is to leave the next administration with a sustainable policy on the war.

In other media interviews this morning, Gates addressed NATO countries' reaction to his comments that appeared in the Los Angeles Times yesterday about their ill-preparedness for fighting an insurgency in southern Afghanistan. The paper quotes him as saying, "I'm worried we have some military forces that don't know how to do counterinsurgency operations."

The U.S. ambassador to the Netherlands was summoned to the Dutch Defense Ministry yesterday to do cleanup for Gates. (Dutch, British and Canadian forces make up most of the European NATO presence in southern Afghanistan.) Roland Arnall offered a "clarification" for Gates' comments, noting that NATO forces aren't trained for counterinsurgency fighting and Gates hadn't intended to single out a specific country for criticism. Afterward, a Dutch official told a media outlet, "We assume this was a misunderstanding... This is not the Robert Gates we have come to know. It's also not the manner in which you treat each other when you have to cooperate with each other in the south of Afghanistan."

See the full NPR and LA Times stories for more.

Posted at 10:40 AM
Posted to: Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Robert Gates
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January 15, 2008

U.S. Embassy Targeted In Beirut Blast

An explosion targeting a U.S. Embassy vehicle has killed four Lebanese bystanders in the capital city of Beirut.

The two passengers of the vehicle, neither of whom were Americans, were not seriously hurt, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said. CNN is reporting that an American, an Iraqi and three Lebanese were among the 20 or so people wounded.

Lebanon is in the midst of a political crisis. Pro-Syrian and pro-Western forces are butting heads over pending parliamentary elections, which have been postponed 11 times. The country has been without a president since November, when former President Emile Lahoud stepped down.

Political asassinations are increasingly commonplace in Lebanon. In September, a car bomb killed a prominent anti-Syrian Christian leader in a Beirut suburb.

Posted at 11:59 AM
Posted to: Lebanon, Middle East, Syria
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January 14, 2008

Mideast Roundup: Bush's Diplomatic & Cultural Journey

President Bush arrived in Saudi Arabia today as he began to wrap up his first tour of the Middle East as commander in chief. Here's a roundup of the president's recent stops and statements in the region (in reverse chronological order):

Saudi Arabia. Although the Bush family is reportedly very friendly with the Saudi royal family, today marks President Bush's first visit to the desert kingdom, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East. King Abdullah greeted the president upon his arrival in Riyadh, and the two began talks over dinner. They were expected to focus on the main themes of Bush's trip: the threat posed by Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian peace effort and the spread of democracy in the region.

Bush also came bearing gifts: the opportunity to purchase $123 million worth of "smart bomb" technology and related equipment, AP reports. The White House notified Congress of the arms sale, part of an overall $20 billion package for Persian Gulf states, this morning. According to the Los Angeles Times, "Under U.S. provisions governing such arms sales, Congress has 30 days in which it may disapprove the sale once lawmakers receive the formal notification of the administration's plans."

Continue reading "Mideast Roundup: Bush's Diplomatic & Cultural Journey"

Posted at 3:52 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, President Bush, Saudi Arabia
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U.S.-Iran Confrontation: Just 'Monkey' Business?

Remember last week, when it seemed as if the controversy over the puzzling confrontation between U.S. naval ships and Iranian speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz couldn't get any weirder? Well, a new report from Navy Times blows that theory out of the water, so to speak.

The menacing voice coming from a radio transmission broadcast at the end of a Pentagon video of the clash may have been none other than "a locally famous heckler known among ship drivers as the 'Filipino Monkey,'" the Times reported yesterday. "Several Navy ship drivers interviewed by Navy Times are raising the possibility that the Monkey, or an imitator, was indeed featured in that video."

See the full story for more on the "mysterious but profane voice known by the ethnically insulting handle of 'Filipino Monkey,' likely more than one person, who listens in on ship-to-ship radio traffic and then jumps on the net shouting insults and jabbering vile epithets."

Posted at 1:16 PM
Posted to: Iran, Middle East, Military
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As Troop Surge Recedes, Focus In Iraq Shifts To Political Arena

Cautiously confident about the troop surge's success in tamping down violence in Iraq, U.S. military leaders are shifting their focus to the political arena, the Los Angeles Times reports this morning. Specifically, commanders are working to transfer more than 70,000 men working in the Sunni guard corps, aka "Concerned Local Citizens" or Awakening Councils, to the payroll of the Shiite-dominated national government. The men, many of them former Sunni insurgents, are currently working directly under the U.S. military, helping to enforce neighborhood security.

"The day-to-day commander in Iraq, Army Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, believes that the Iraqi government's reconciliation with onetime Sunni fighters represents the 'primary driver of enhanced security' over the next six months, according to internal military planning documents," the Times reports.

So far, however, the effort has run into some opposition among government officials wary of letting former insurgents into the fold. Specifically, they fear that the move could pave the way for a new rival army of Sunni insurgents. American commanders, on the other hand, fear that if Shiite leaders continue to resist, members of the Sunni security groups will abandon the effort and re-enter the battlefield.

The effort to integrate the citizens groups comes amid other tentative signs of progress in the long, slow process of political reconciliation among Iraq's warring factions. Over the weekend, the Iraqi Parliament passed the Justice and Accountability Law, which allows some former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party to seek government jobs and claim their pensions for the first time since the 2003 U.S. invasion.

Continue reading "As Troop Surge Recedes, Focus In Iraq Shifts To Political Arena"

Posted at 11:49 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush, WH 2008
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January 11, 2008

The Plot Thickens In The Strait Of Hormuz

UPDATED.

The strange confrontation between U.S. naval ships and Iranian speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz Sunday morning just got a bit more puzzling. Yesterday, as the U.S. Navy began to express doubts about some details of the clash shown in a Pentagon video of the incident, Iran released its own audio-visual version of the story on its English-language Press TV.

The Pentagon's video featured a brief encounter between the speedboats and Navy ships, followed by a radio transmission, purportedly from Iran's Revolutionary Guard, that ends with a gruff, heavily accented voice saying in English, "You will explode after (indecipherable) minutes." AP has a full transcript.

In contrast, Iran's footage features a brief and seemingly routine encounter between the speedboats and U.S. ships, with very different audio to go with it, according to the Los Angeles Times' transcription:

"Coalition warship 73, this is Iranian navy patrol boat 16. Come in. Over," an Iranian sailor aboard a speedboat says in English to a U.S. warship apparently in the distance. "Request present course and speed."

"This is coalition warship 73," a voice says over the radio in American English. "I am operating in international waters."

Joints Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen said today he could not determine whether the threats heard in the Pentagon video came directly from the Iranian boats, a point first made by a U.S. Navy spokeswoman yesterday. Still, Mullen said "the incident ought to remind us all just how real is the threat posed by Iran and just how ready we are to meet that threat if it comes to it."

Continue reading "The Plot Thickens In The Strait Of Hormuz"

Posted at 3:54 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Middle East, President Bush, Robert Gates
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Christmas In Baghdad

Iraqis gratefully received a belated holiday gift today when the first snowfall in memory descended on their country.

"'When I was young, I heard from my father that such rain had fallen in the early '40s on the outskirts of northern Baghdad,'' 63-year-old Mohammed Abdul-Hussein told AP. "But snow falling in Baghdad in such a magnificent scene was beyond my imagination."

Snow is so rare in those parts that it seems some Iraqis don't have a word for it. By "such rain," Abdul-Hussein was referring to the flurries. NPR reported this morning that Baghdadis happily ran outside to snap photos of the snow with their cell phones; unfortunately, that segment isn't yet available on NPR's Web site.

"A few minutes ago, I was covered with snowflakes. In my hair, on my shoulders. I invite all the people to enjoy peace, because the snow means peace," a happy Hassan Zahar told Reuters.

The flakes melted on contact with the ground. Meteorologists told AFP that the last recorded snowfall in Baghdad was about 100 years ago, and that the flurries might be a product of climate change.

The country's mountainous north is no stranger to snow; that's where the pic in this post was taken. See the AFP story for a photo of an Iraqi couple frolicking in the Baghdad snow today. The photo in that AFP story was taken in Sulaimaniyah, in the country's northeast. AFP has switched out that photo with one taken in Baghdad. It's not great. Reuters has a much better one.

Posted at 11:27 AM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East
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Abu Ghraib Officer Cleared

The Army has dismissed charges against the only officer court-martialed in the scandal surrounding the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, erasing any criminal responsibility from Lt. Col. Steven Jordan's record. Jordan was convicted in August "of disobeying an order not to discuss the investigation of abuse at the jail" and was issued "a criminal reprimand as penalty," Reuters reports.

Yesterday, the Army reported that commanding officer Maj. Gen. Richard Rowe disapproved of the charges against Jordan. Jordan hasn't been completely excused -- he was still officially found guilty of some of the less-serious charges brought against him at the court-martial -- but he will face only an administrative letter of reprimand and not the dismissal from the Army or five years in prison he could have received.

Jordan ran an interrogation center at the notorious prison, where dramatic photos were taken of U.S. soldiers abusing and humiliating inmates. Jordan denied he had any involvement in the abuse, complained that he did not hold any authority over others at the prison and charged the military with making him a scapegoat when the international uproar about the photos hit.

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Posted at 8:45 AM
Posted to: Detainees, Iraq, Middle East, Military
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January 10, 2008

On Surge Anniversary, New Survey Shows Different Iraqi Death Toll

On this, the one-year anniversary of President Bush's televised address announcing the so-called surge strategy, the White House and congressional backers of the surge are praising the security gains made over the past year by the increased presence of U.S. troops in Iraq.

"Conditions in that country have been utterly transformed from those of a year ago, as a consequence of the surge," Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Joseph Lieberman, I/D-Conn., wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed this morning. "The number of car bombings, sectarian murders and suicide attacks has been slashed. American casualties have also fallen sharply, decreasing in each of the past four months."

During that time, Iraqi deaths have also decreased, although the numbers are still distressingly high. And a new study [PDF] published online today by the New England Journal of Medicine adds another layer of mystery to the question of just how many Iraqis have fallen since the U.S. invasion began nearly five years ago.

The new estimate, compiled by researchers from the Iraqi government and the World Health Organization, puts the death toll from violence at about 151,000 from March 2003 to June 2006. Conducted over the past two years, the survey stands in sharp contrast to a widely reported 2006 study [PDF] that estimated about 654,965 Iraqis had died in the war within a similar time frame -- a claim that quickly became a political lightning rod in the congressional elections that year.

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Posted at 3:35 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Iraq, Middle East, President Bush
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Bush: Peace 'Should Happen, And Can Happen' By Year's End

President Bush finished up his meetings with Israeli and Palestinian leaders today by predicting that both sides would reach a peace agreement by the end of this year.

"The establishment of the state of Palestine is long overdue," Bush said, speaking from Jerusalem. "The Palestinian people deserve it. And it will enhance the stability of the region, and it will contribute to the security of the people of Israel. The peace agreement should happen, and can happen, by the end of this year. I know each leader shares that important goal, and I am committed to doing all I can to achieve it."

He laid out three "tracks" essential to reaching that goal: a full commitment to the road map from both sides; the rebuilding of the Palestinian economy and "political and security institutions"; and the Arab League's cooperation and adherence to its own peace initiative. To ensure that the first track is followed, the White House today appointed Lt. Gen. William Fraser to oversee both sides' compliance with the peace road map.

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Posted at 12:21 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Israel, Middle East, Palestinians, President Bush
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January 09, 2008

Try, Try Again: Bush Begins Mideast Tour

Distracted by an election, Americans have paid little mind to President Bush's first trip to Israel and the West Bank in his seven years in office. Haunted by the failed peace-brokering efforts of former presidents, there appears to be little momentum for Bush's renewed Mideast push at home. But the story in Israel is markedly different.

Speaking at a press conference in Jerusalem following talks between their delegations, Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert conveyed optimism and determination that this new effort toward a two-state solution would be successful.

"I view this as a historic moment," Bush said. "We've heard a lot of rhetoric in the past, a lot of grand proclamations. But I wouldn't be standing here if I did not believe you all were serious. Our job is to help you seize that opportunity."

Olmert answered Bush with effusive gratitude and praise.

"I want to thank you for this opportunity, for your friendship and support for the security of the state of Israel that you have manifested for a long period of time, through your time as president of the United States of America," Olmert said. Later, turning to Bush, Olmert added, "Thank you for the courage you inspire in all of us to carry on with our obligations."

Continue reading "Try, Try Again: Bush Begins Mideast Tour"

Posted at 1:40 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Israel, Middle East, Palestinians, President Bush
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January 08, 2008

ICYMI: War In Iraq *Still On*

Hey everybody, we're still at war in Iraq! (And Afghanistan.) We know, it's easy to forget when every newspaper and news channel is focused on New Hampshire.

The Gate is going to let Granite State voters do their thing -- you know, democracy -- and will update with the results tonight when they are confirmed. In the meantime, here are some developments from Iraq that you will have missed if you're as glued to the TV as we are.

U.S. and Iraqi forces have begun a significant air and land raid in insurgent-infested Diyala River Valley. About 4,000 U.S. and Iraqi soldiers are involved in the effort, which launched overnight, the Los Angeles Times reports.

The Pentagon's new counterinsurgency strategy has successfully brought violence down, but commanders still face an uphill battle in their bid to scrub out/neutralize al-Qaida in Iraq. Part of the reason why is that militant fighters in Iraq are by now well-versed in dissipating into the general population when these U.S.-led missions begin.

According to the LAT account, "there were reports that the 50 to 60 senior insurgent leaders holed up northwest of Muqdadiya had fled."

Continue reading "ICYMI: War In Iraq *Still On*"

Posted at 5:09 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Middle East, Military, Palestinians, President Bush, Terrorism, WH 2008
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Bush Sets Off On First Major Swing Through Middle East

President Bush embarks today on a lengthy Mideast trip, making first-time visits to all the countries on his planned list -- including Israel but excluding Egypt -- as U.S. president. In the waning days of his term and in the wake of November's Annapolis summit, several questions have arisen: Why now, and what are Bush's goals? And what is it about the Middle East that makes presidents think about the L-word?

It's Iran (not "legacy") that's purportedly on Bush's mind as he heads to the region today. With stops in Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, he is trying to reaffirm the support of Iran's Arab neighbors for the U.S. campaign against the country.

Jerusalem is Bush's first stop. He will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Shimon Peres; on Thursday, he is scheduled to travel to the West Bank to sit down with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Although doubts about the strength of the brokering partners on all three sides continue to hang over the process, Bush promised in his Saturday radio address that he "will make clear that America is deeply committed to helping both parties realize the historic vision" of a two-state solution.

One editorial board characterizes Bush's visit as an "effort to bring about enormous changes at the last minute" -- hinting at his chance of success in an area where many others have failed. Another board, the Miami Herald's, goes a step further and calls it a "dangerous time for a Middle East visit" because of the escalating violence in the region, adding that it "is not clear what [Bush] hopes to accomplish, but... there is little reason to be hopeful about improving the chances for peace."

Posted at 9:35 AM
Posted to: Iran, Israel, Middle East, Palestinians, President Bush
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January 07, 2008

U.S.-Iran Tussle Averted, Just In Time For Bush Trip

UPDATED.

Iran has confirmed an incident in which U.S. and Iranian naval vessels appear to have come dangerously close to a military confrontation, but waved off alarm over the near-clash.

"The example that happened on Saturday was similar to previous cases and is an ordinary and natural issue," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said, according to Reuters. "This is an ordinary issue that happens for the two sides every once in a while and after the identification of the two sides the issue is resolved."

Earlier today, U.S. officials said that the "significant" confrontation between Iranian Revolutionary Guard vessels and three U.S. naval ships ended without a shot fired. The incident came just days before George W. Bush is due in Israel for the first Mideast visit of his presidency.

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Posted at 1:51 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Military, Palestinians, President Bush
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Sunni Leader Killed In Blast Targeting Councils

Iraq suffered three separate suicide bombings today, one of which killed a Sunni leader in northern Baghdad. Riyadh al-Samaraie was the "well-respected" head of a local council and played a key role in efforts to reduce violence in his neighborhood, CNN reports.

The double bombing took place inside a compound of an organization managing Sunni mosques and shrines, the Sunni Endowment, which is backed by the U.S. After one bomb exploded at the entrance and people rushed to help the victims of that attack, a second suicide bomber struck with a car bomb nearby.

At least 14 others -- including more members of the "awakening councils" supported by the U.S. -- were killed in the blasts. ABC reports that the councils are credited with stemming violence in Iraq but are increasingly becoming targets for al-Qaida.

Posted at 9:04 AM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East
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January 04, 2008

WH '08: A Brusque, But Not Brisk, Farewell To Iowa

We haven't matched the rest of the media's outsized coverage of the Iowa caucuses because of the very nature of the caucuses themselves. But we have to admit that what we saw last night was pretty astonishing, in part because a poll predicting the results actually turned out to be right.

Of course, that could just be a coincidence, but the Des Moines Register appears to have corrected for some of the factors that plagued surveys past. (Though it's still not without its problems, Mark Blumenthal points out.) The David-vs.-Goliath victory of Mike Huckabee (results) flew in the face of conventional wisdom, proving that a virtual unknown with hardly any money to campaign with and virtually no organization could sell himself to voters.

Huck's defeat of Mitt Romney does not, however, mean that the conventional wisdom won't prevail.

If you know anything about how the caucuses work, you know that they are unrepresentative of party voters nationwide and are undemocratic, particularly on the Democratic side (irony, irony), to boot. So of course all the attention now goes to New Hampshire (but not Wyoming, which holds its GOP caucus tomorrow), for the first primary vote of the season. New Hampshire's results will almost certainly be different from Iowa's, so a lot of comparing and contrasting will ensue.

We purposely did not devote a lot of blog space to the caucuses for good reason. But yesterday's surprising results dispelled some long-standing prognostication about the 2008 presidential election. Since dispensing with conventional wisdom can be fun (OK, we're nerds), let's take out the trash after the jump.

Continue reading "WH '08: A Brusque, But Not Brisk, Farewell To Iowa"

Posted at 5:51 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, Economy, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, John Edwards, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Middle East, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, President Bush, Republicans, WH 2008
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January 02, 2008

Your Feel-Good Story Of The Week

Election craziness aside, we're in a particularly grim news cycle. Between Pakistan, various hot spots in Africa, ongoing violence in Iraq and the troubled U.S. economy, it's difficult to feel optimistic, and just two days in to 2008 no less.

Meet Majs. Laura Geldhof and Eric Olson. Olson was serving in Tallil, Iraq, last year, more than 200 miles from Balad, where Geldhof was sent, according to this AP report. So imagine Geldhof's surprise when she walked into a mess hall and found Olson standing under a banner that read, "Laura, will you marry me?"

Continue reading "Your Feel-Good Story Of The Week"

Posted at 3:55 PM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East, Military
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December 28, 2007

Why We Fight

Before the Christmas break, we wrote that Americans' dwindling interest in the Iraq war might be perilous to the national interest, as Alasdair Roberts recently contended in Foreign Policy. Now the war on terrorism -- which even critics of President Bush must admit now includes Iraq -- is back in the headlines, thanks to yesterday's tragic events.

The view from Washington is that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a serious kneecap blow to U.S. foreign policy. To quickly review: President Pervez Musharraf, an ally by necessity, is increasingly unpopular at home and for good reason. (People who live under military dictatorships generally do not enjoy the experience.) Meanwhile, there's a virulent strain of anti-Western, Islamic fanaticism seeping through Pakistan at the moment, which means this White House's usually cherished principles of liberty and democracy do not apply.

The Bhutto-Musharraf power-sharing compromise was seen as the most feasible shot at calming Pakistan's restive populace. In Bhutto, Washington saw a more reliable and transparent ally in the war against extremism, in part because of her shady ethical past. She had something to prove.

Now that she's gone, we're back to where we were, and less than two weeks before Pakistan's elections no less. No doubt there is panic in the Beltway today, if only for the dearth of available options now.

Continue reading "Why We Fight"

Posted at 3:06 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Bush Administration, Campaigns, China, Democrats, Iraq, John McCain, Joseph Biden, Middle East, Pakistan, President Bush, Republicans, Ron Paul, Russia, Terrorism, WH 2008
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December 21, 2007

...But That Won't Mitigate A Really Bad Decade In Iraq

In his year-end press conference, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced that the Pentagon would not be issuing furlough notices "at this time." The branches of the military have had to lay off employees and cut corners while Congress and the White House tussle over continued war funding. The result has been piecemeal funding for the military, as anti-war lawmakers continue to pressure President Bush to accept a withdrawal deadline.

A June Center for Strategic and International Studies report [PDF] advised the Pentagon to stop requesting funding through war supplementals, which aren't included in the defense budget in order to make actual spending appear smaller than it really is. Total U.S. defense spending is only about 4 percent of GDP -- a very low war-time figure. The constantly cash-strapped military need not be so, the authors conclude, and the Pentagon should be asking for much more money with which to fight the Iraq war, the most pressing security problem facing the country.

Gates seemed to dispute the criticism that his department was lowballing Congress in order to provide political cover for the president. "I actually think we had a very thoughtful conversation with the House Armed Services Committee earlier in the year over what percent of GDP devoted to defense and securing the nation should be. I got the impression from both sides of the aisle that it ought to be about 4 percent," Gates said.

"I will be putting out a letter later this afternoon that basically acknowledges that we have to do some planning because we didn't get all the money" requested from Congress, he added.

Continue reading "...But That Won't Mitigate A Really Bad Decade In Iraq"

Posted at 5:05 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, Iraq, John McCain, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Republicans, Robert Gates, WH 2008
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DOD: It Was A Pretty Good Year...

UPDATED

Thanks to the military's performance in Iraq, officials in the Department of Defense have genuine reason to clink glasses as the year winds down, though they know better than to go overboard in their celebrations.

In his year-end press briefing, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that the drawdown of five brigade combat teams (BCTs) by July 2008 was going as planned and should allow for yet more troop reductions. The first of the BCTs returned from Iraq earlier this month.

"My hope is the circumstances on the ground will continue to improve in a way that, when Gen. [David] Petraeus and the Joint Chiefs and Central Command do their analysis in March, will allow a continuation of the drawdown at roughly the same pace as the first half of the year," Gates said in the Pentagon briefing room.

Continue reading "DOD: It Was A Pretty Good Year..."

Posted at 5:00 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, David Petraeus, Iraq, Middle East, Military, Robert Gates
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December 20, 2007

President Bush's Passive-Aggressive Holiday Greeting

Speaking at his final White House press conference of the year, President Bush congratulated Congress on its 11th-hour legislative achievements while making sure to backhand lawmakers for taking so long to get there.

"I thank the members of both parties for their hard work," Bush said, cheering the passage this week of the alternative minimum tax (AMT) patch, a lending crisis fix, an energy efficiency package and new defense spending. "I am pleased we are able to end this year on a high note."

Returning later to the AMT bill, the president added, "Unfortunately, Congress passed this legislation after a lengthy delay. It is going to add to the time it takes to process tens of billions in refunds. We will work hard to minimize the impact of congressional delay."

And after thanking Congress for sending him new spending for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan before the New Year, Bush noted that it was "approved at the last minute, nearly three months after the end of the fiscal year." He continued, "When Congress wastes so much time and leaves its work until the final days before Christmas, it is not a responsible way to run the government."

The president later denied that his relationship with the Democratic-led Congress was truly "antagonistic," but his annual pre-holiday address to the press corps encapsulated the testy and wearying push-pull the two branches have been engaged in all year.

Continue reading "President Bush's Passive-Aggressive Holiday Greeting"

Posted at 12:18 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, CIA, Campaigns, Congress, Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, Lebanon, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Russia, Syria, Vladimir Putin, WH 2008
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December 19, 2007

Time Gets It Right With Person Of The Year

After being mocked and ridiculed for its gimmicky 2006 pick, Time magazine reverted to heft with this year's choice: Russian President (for Life) Vladimir Putin.

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Posted at 12:33 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Europe, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, President Bush, Russia, U.K., WH 2008
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December 18, 2007

DOD Nominee Gives Maliki Government An 'F'

The Bush administration's nominee to be assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs today gave the Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki an "F" for failing to meet key legislative benchmarks.

"At this time, I would give the Maliki government an 'F'," Mary Beth Long told the Senate Armed Services Committee during her confirmation hearing today. The nascent government has not performed in an "exemplary manner" to pass needed legislation, Long said. If confirmed, Long, who has served as the principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for international security for the last two years, would become a top Pentagon adviser on the Middle East, Africa and NATO. She acknowledged the Iraqi government has not yet succeeded in passing de-Baathification legislation or approving hydrocarbon laws including an oil revenue sharing agreement, among other legislative goals.

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Posted at 5:29 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iraq, Middle East
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Turkish Troops Withdraw From Iraq

Turkish troops who crossed into Iraq early this morning have pulled out, Reuters is reporting.

It is not yet clear why the 300 or so troops would withdraw so quickly, but this week's airstrikes on suspected Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) hideouts have outraged Iraqis. The Washington Post reported this morning that the airstrikes on the Kurdish separatist group, considered a terrorist organization by the U.S., were carried out with the Pentagon's assistance.

The incursion came and went as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice toured Kirkuk and Baghdad to apply pressure toward political reconciliation. Kurdish regional President Massoud Barzani refused to meet with Rice because of the Turkish assaults, BBC News reports.

Posted at 11:42 AM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Iraq, Kurds, Middle East
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December 17, 2007

Iran Watch: You've Got Fuel

So, Russia has just delivered the first shipment of 80 tons of uranium fuel rods to Iran's disputed Bushehr nuclear reactor. Now what?

Wait-and-see time, apparently. It is not clear how close the Bushehr facility is to full production capacity. A spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Agency said that Bushehr was 95-percent finished, according to the Los Angeles Times, but Iran has walked a tricky line between simultaneously exaggerating and denying its nuclear capacity for years.

Taking a question on Iran during a speech on the economy this morning, President Bush seemed to welcome news of the arrangement, but with a caveat.

"Interestingly enough, today Russia sent some enriched, or is in the process of sending enriched uranium to Iran to help on their civilian nuclear reactor. If that's the case, if the Russians are willing to do that -- which I support -- then the Iranians do not need to learn how to enrich," Bush said. "If the Iranians accept that uranium for a civilian nuclear power plant, then there's no need for them to learn how to enrich," he repeated.

Continue reading "Iran Watch: You've Got Fuel"

Posted at 5:20 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Iran, Israel, Middle East, North Korea, Palestinians, President Bush, Russia
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December 14, 2007

Is The Surge Working?

We said in our liveblog coverage of the final Democratic presidential candidates debate yesterday that the military component of the "surge" strategy in Iraq was working . An Iraq war vet who is now ex-military and a foreign-policy wonk in Germany weighs in (unedited):

Primacy of the Iraq war as an issue has slipped, but not because a tapering off of violence. It is still pretty constant, just down a little from the bloodiest season we've had since Nov 04 when the second Fallujiah was going on.

Continue reading "Is The Surge Working?"

Posted at 6:27 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, David Petraeus, Iraq, Middle East, Military, WH 2008
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Happy Holidays! Now Send Me Some Bills.

Flanked by the vice president and the rest of his Cabinet-level officials, President Bush cheerfully reminded Congress of the mountain of legislative work they must tackle before departing for the holidays.

"I thank the Senate and congratulate the Senate for passing a good energy bill," Bush said at a press conference on the White House lawn. "Now the House must act."

Bush emerged to speak with reporters this morning following his weekly Cabinet meeting. He scored a victory yesterday when the Senate overwhelmingly passed an energy package minus a Democratic-sponsored $21.8 billion provision that would have reduced tax breaks for oil companies. The overall bill remains tough on automakers, however, and is expected to make it through the House next Tuesday with relative ease.

Continue reading "Happy Holidays! Now Send Me Some Bills."

Posted at 11:44 AM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, Congress, Dick Cheney, House, Iraq, Middle East, North Korea, President Bush, Senate, Taxes
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December 13, 2007

Liveblogging The Final Dem Debate Of 2007!

4:10. All over, no more debates until next year, hurray!

Up until a couple of months ago, there seemed to be a critical mass of Democratic support building behind Clinton, in part because of her metamorphosis into a suddenly "human" and likable politician and the assumption that the Clinton machine could best take on the Republican nominee next year. The political press carried on that change vs. experience debate all summer and into the early fall.

But now the nomination fight has been upended, and polls [PDF] show (subscription) that Obama and Edwards are viable in general election matchups, too. That eliminates for some voters their primary thesis for supporting Clinton, and it's why she's been struggling to stay afloat this month.

Most of us can look forward to relaxing with family in a week or so, but for the presidential contenders and Iowans it's closing arguments time. One thought to keep in mind: Part of the shifting around in this field and in the GOP as well is that the Iraq war has largely dropped out of the debate. Iraq no longer dominates the front page because of the decrease in violence and because of the campaigns. That changes in March at the latest, when Gen. David Petraeus is due back in Washington to report on the ground situation. We know the military part of the surge is working, but we are not much farther than we were in September on political reconciliation. The "what's next?" question is still hanging out there, unanswered. The GOP front-runners have more or less indicated loyalty to the Bush administration's policies, so answers will have to come from the Democratic field.

Early reactions: boring, boring, nice, snark.

Continue reading "Liveblogging The Final Dem Debate Of 2007!"

Posted at 4:10 PM
Posted to: Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Campaigns, Christopher Dodd, Democrats, Economy, Education, Health, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iraq, John Edwards, Joseph Biden, Middle East, Republicans, Taxes, Trade, WH 2008
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December 11, 2007

What Is Al-Qaida In The Islamic Maghreb?

It's too soon to know for sure, but indicators so far point to a North African Sunni terrorist group, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (QIM), as the culprit behind today's twin bombings that killed more than 60 people in Algiers. U.S. and European intelligence agencies have been tracking al-Qaida-affiliated groups in North Africa for some time because of well-founded fears that it will be the next frontier in the war against Islamic terrorism.

The current incarnation of QIM is not even a year old. In January, the Algeria-based Islamic extremist group Salafist Group for Call and Combat, known by its French initials as GSPC, announced it was changing its name because its membership in al-Qaida had been formalized.

Washington counts Algeria's democratically elected government as an ally in the war on terror, and provides financial assistance [PDF] via the State Department's Middle East Partnership Initiative. QIM counts Western-friendly Algiers as its enemy, and in May the group released an audio message telling Algerians that participation in this year's elections would make them "the traitors in this great sin" of their leaders' "tyranny and infidelity and their fight against religion." A series of bomb explosions apparently targeting the elections resulted in dismal turnout for the May 17 vote.

Continue reading "What Is Al-Qaida In The Islamic Maghreb?"

Posted at 6:45 PM
Posted to: Africa, Al-Qaida, Bush Administration, Middle East, Military, Terrorism
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Axis Of Evil Watch: Ahmadinejad, Blogger

Even in the blogosphere, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gets a little tetchy.

From a post dated 11/18/07: "Since my last post on the blog, a few months have passed. But this doesn't ‎mean that I have not been keeping my promise of spending fifteen minutes per week ‎on it. As a matter of fact, I have spent more than the allocated time on the blog."

Hear that, world? Now back off. Ahmadinejad's most recent post is dated 12/1, so it looks as if the president's a little busy these days. If you'd like to send him a little note -- what's Persian for "wassup?" -- there's a comments section. The blog is available in Persian, Arabic, English and French. (Hat tip: IHT)

Now on to North Korea. A few developments here, but if you are keen to know what life is like inside the Hermit Kingdom, NPR producer Madhulika Sikka described her recent visit on "Morning Edition" today.

Posted at 11:27 AM
Posted to: Asia, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, North Korea
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December 07, 2007

What Did McConnell Mean?

TPM wants to know what Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell meant when he said the following during a re-election campaign stop in Grayson County, Ky., last week.

Unfortunately, most of our friends on the other aisle are having a hard time admitting things are getting better; some days I almost think the critics of this war don't want us to win. Nobody is happy about losing lives but remember these are not draftees, these are full-time professional soldiers.

Emphasis ours. Was McConnell really shrugging off the deaths of nearly 3,890 American soldiers since the Iraq war began four-and-a-half years ago, as TPM implies? It depends on where you are on the war.

Continue reading "What Did McConnell Mean?"

Posted at 3:04 PM
Posted to: Campaigns, Congress, Iraq, Middle East, Military, Senate
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December 05, 2007

Bush: U.N. Security Council On Board With Iran Policy

President Bush sought today to quell skepticism over his administration's Iran policy following a new U.S. intel report [PDF] stating that the regime most likely stopped pursuing nuclear arms four years ago.

Speaking to reporters on a snowy tarmac in Nebraska, Bush said, "On the way out here I spoke with my team, who gave me a report on conversations the secretary of state and national security advisor have had over the last couple of days with their counterparts in the U.K., Germany, France and Russia. These countries understand that the Iranian nuclear issue is a problem, and continues to be a problem, that must be addressed by the international community."

In a press conference yesterday, Bush said that his administration's policy on Iran -- that it must disclose all about its nuclear activities and cease enriching uranium or face consequences as severe as military force -- remains the status quo, despite the National Intelligence Estimate's conclusions. But the intel community's assessment that Iran stopped pursuing nukes out of fear it would meet the fate of neighboring Iraq has led analysts to conclude that Washington no longer has the leverage it requires to get its P5+1 partners in the U.N. to keep pressure on Tehran.

Continue reading "Bush: U.N. Security Council On Board With Iran Policy"

Posted at 11:03 AM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Terrorism
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December 04, 2007

May U.K. Hostage-Taking In Iraq Revealed

Al-Arabiya television has broadcast video of five Britons missing since May 29 in Iraq, BBC News reports. In the tape, dated Nov. 18, gunmen threaten to kill one of the hostages if British troops do not begin pulling out in 10 days.

The kidnapping is just coming to light because the U.K. Foreign Office had asked the media to back off on coverage while it negotiated the men's release, according to BBC News. The gunmen say they are from a group called the Islamic Shia Resistance in Iraq. The hostages are four guards and a computer expert.

Posted at 2:37 PM
Posted to: Europe, Iraq, Middle East, U.K.
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Bush: NIE Doesn't Change Iran Policy

President Bush denied that he was aware of new intelligence that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program before this week, but said the news would not change White House policy toward the "axis of evil" nation.

"Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous and Iran will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon," Bush said in a White House press conference. "The NIE said Iran had a hidden, covert nuclear weapons program. What's to say they couldn't start another covert nuclear weapons program?"

Bush said that earlier this fall, when the White House was ratcheting up pressure on Tehran, he was unaware of indications that Iran had stopped its weapons program in 2003, even though the intelligence community had been working on the new report [PDF] for months. According to U.S. intelligence agencies' latest consolidated findings, Iran stopped pursuing nukes in 2003 in part because of pressure applied by the U.S. and its allies as well as the Iraq war. The report notes that Iran has never disclosed its nuclear capability, and that it would be difficult to know if they decided again to weaponize the fissile material they already possess.

"We know that they're still trying to learn how to enrich uranium," Bush said. "I view this report as a warning signal."

"This is an opportunity to rally the international community," the president continued. "The best diplomacy is one in which all options are on the table."

Continue reading "Bush: NIE Doesn't Change Iran Policy"

Posted at 11:46 AM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, President Bush, WH 2008
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Iran Welcomes NIE News

After yesterday's announcement that a new National Intelligence Estimate shows Iran's nuclear program was frozen in 2003, Iran today heralded the revised assessment. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki praised the U.S. decision to "correct" its 2005 claim that his country was still actively engaged in developing its nuclear program.

Israel, on the other hand, is sounding the alarm, arguing that the NIE sharply diverges from Israeli intelligence reports, and even if the program had been halted in 2003, it has now been restarted.

The new NIE "complicates eventually launching a military operation against Iranian nuclear installations and makes it more difficult to justify an Israeli attack," Iran specialist Efraim Kam told Agence France-Presse.

President Bush is set to give an address from the White House at 10 a.m. to criticize Congress for failing to pass legislation to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but Iran and the NIE report are likely to take center stage. Stay tuned.

Posted at 7:26 AM
Posted to: Iran, Middle East
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December 03, 2007

Iran Watch: Over Before It Even Began?

Just when we thought war with Iran was inevitable, along comes a new National Intelligence Estimate telling us: Never mind!

"We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program," the declassified version of the report [PDF] reads. But then: "We also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."

What to make of all this?

The U.S. intelligence community believes "with moderate-to-high confidence" that Iran currently does not possess nuclear weapons. On the other hand, we know North Korea has as many as 10 bombs; it tested one last year. So why has the Bush administration been pointing all of its guns at Iran? Because of the neighborhood it's in. A potentially nuclear-armed Iran spells more immediate trouble for U.S. interests than a definitely nuclear-armed North Korea -- 28,000 U.S. troops on the peninsula notwithstanding.

Democrats and conservatives alike are highly critical of the different policy tracks President Bush has taken on these two problems. While the NIE indicates that the White House will have to lay off a bit on its rhetoric toward Iran, it seems that total transparency (with regard to IAEA inspectors, etc.) is still the baseline.

Continue reading "Iran Watch: Over Before It Even Began?"

Posted at 4:05 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Iraq, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Terrorism
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November 28, 2007

Mideast: Bush Pledges Personal Involvement But Few Trips

The world was treated to the sight of a united President Bush, Mahmoud Abbas and Ehud Olmert once again today after more meetings following by a brief photo-op on the White House lawn.

"Yesterday was an important day, and it was a hopeful beginning," Bush said of Tuesday's Annapolis Conference on Israeli-Palestinian relations. "No matter how important yesterday was, it's not nearly as important as tomorrow and the days beyond."

The Israelis and Palestinians along with the U.S. have been emphasizing that the work ahead will be painful but necessary to reach the goal of final agreement on a two-state solution by 2009. Washington is taking on the main oversight role in the negotiations after years of what administration critics say was neglect of the region.

Continue reading "Mideast: Bush Pledges Personal Involvement But Few Trips"

Posted at 5:58 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Palestinians, President Bush
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November 27, 2007

Mideast Summit: 'We Are Ready'

UPDATED.

Reading a joint statement issued by the international participants of the Annapolis conference on Israeli-Palestinian relations, President Bush heralded what is widely seen as a last-ditch attempt to broker a lasting peace between the two Mideast parties.

"We express our determination to bring an end to bloodshed, suffering and decades of conflict between our peoples; to usher in a new era of peace, based on freedom, security, justice, dignity, respect and mutual recognition; to propagate a culture of peace and nonviolence; to confront terrorism and incitement, whether committed by Palestinians or Israelis," Bush said before representatives of the U.N., EU, G-8 and nearly every major Arab League nation. "In furtherance of the goal of two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security, we agree to immediately launch good-faith bilateral negotiations in order to conclude a peace treaty, resolving all outstanding issues, including all core issues without exception."

Seated on stage to the president's side were Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the two leaders who will do the heavy lifting in the negotiations. The joint statement was, as expected, a declaration of support from the world community of the two-state solution advocated by both parties as well as the United States. The statement also included a recommitment to the 2003 road map established by the Quartet -- the U.S., EU, U.N. and Russia -- shepherding the peace process.

But Bush also clarified the role the U.S. will play during the coming stretch of talks. While Washington won't exactly be in the thick of negotiations, it will be overseeing and assessing Israel's and the PLO's progress on the road map requirements. Exactly how much of a taskmaster the U.S. is in the process will probably be determined by the depth of involvement by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the mastermind behind the new push for a two-state solution.

Continue reading "Mideast Summit: 'We Are Ready'"

Posted at 3:03 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Fatah, Hamas, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, Palestinians, President Bush, Saudi Arabia, Syria
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Iranians Claim New Missile Can Reach Israel

Government officials in Iran announced today that the country has developed a new long-range missile that can hit a target more than 1,200 miles away -- far enough to reach Israel and U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Iran already possesses a fairly wide arsenal of missiles as part of its existing arms program, which was begun in 1992 to make up for a U.S. weapons embargo.

Although it's not part of the nuclear program that negotiators are trying to wrestle Tehran into dismantling, the announcement of a new missile (regardless of whether it can live up to the hype) is likely to be a source of friction between the U.S. and Iran. Rumblings about the U.S. taking military action against Iran have persisted for several months.

Agence France-Presse has a full rundown of Iran's missile capabilities.

Posted at 8:14 AM
Posted to: Iran, Israel, Middle East, Military
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November 26, 2007

Mideast Summit: Can They Do It?

No doubt that helping forge an independent Palestinian state at peace with Israel would be the jewel in President Bush's pretty beat-up crown come 2009, hence his commitment to the Herculean task of getting the two parties to strike an accord before he leaves office. Analysts of the region are largely of two minds on whether Bush and his go-to on the issue, Condoleezza Rice, can get it done.

Some have come to believe that the Bush administration, so heavily mired in Iraq, completely gave up on Mideast negotiations after the road map fell apart in 2003. "The Bush administration has hung a 'Closed for the Season' sign on serious Arab-Israeli diplomacy," Aaron David Miller declared in April. "The Rice initiative is almost certainly way too little, way too late."

As the Boston Globe reported today, that skepticism persists. But Miller, for one, hasn't written tomorrow's Annapolis summit off.

Both sides badly want an end to the bloody and costly conflict, and for the first time maybe ever, the Palestinians are being represented by a man the West views as an honest broker, President Mahmoud Abbas. The Palestinians and Israelis are still about as far apart as they ever were on their demands, yet the ground seems especially fertile for compromise -- the essential and long-missing component for these negotiations.

Continue reading "Mideast Summit: Can They Do It?"

Posted at 7:35 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Hamas, Israel, Middle East, Palestinians, President Bush
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November 15, 2007

Iraq: When A Door Closes...

UPDATED.

The Washington Post has an A-1 story this morning summarizing interviews with senior military officials who concur that the biggest U.S. obstacle in Iraq is not al-Qaida or sectarian violence, but the nascent Iraqi government itself.

"The lack of political progress calls into question the core rationale behind the troop buildup President Bush announced in January, which was premised on the notion that improved security would create space for Iraqis to arrive at new power-sharing arrangements," the Post reports. Army Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the commander of day-to-day U.S. military operations in Iraq, told interviewers that the drop in attacks against U.S. troops and Iraqis has opened a window of opportunity for the Iraqi government to reach out to former enemies, but "it's unclear how long that window is going to be open."

Meanwhile, at home, Bush is facing his own closing window in the form of war funding. The House yesterday passed a bill to fund further military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, but Democrats tied it to a host of measures -- including a troop withdrawal to begin within a month and to be nearly completed within a year -- that the administration wouldn't find acceptable.

Continue reading "Iraq: When A Door Closes..."

Posted at 11:01 AM
Posted to: Congress, House, Iraq, Middle East, President Bush
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November 14, 2007

Lebanese National Convicted Of Stealing FBI Secrets

A new window into problems at the nation's intelligence agencies popped up recently: Nada Nadim Prouty, a Lebanese woman who used a fake marriage to obtain citizenship and got jobs at the CIA and the FBI. She used her positions to access classified information about an investigation of Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based militant Islamic group the U.S. has designated a terrorist organization.

Prouty also used her position to find information about her brother-in-law Talal Chahine, who fled to Lebanon more than two years ago to avoid prosecution for tax evasion connected to his La Shish restaurant chain. Prouty's sister was convicted in May on charges of helping Chahine and is serving an 18-month prison term.

In a Detroit courtroom yesterday, Prouty pleaded guilty to charges of illegally using the FBI's computer system, naturalization fraud and conspiring to obtain U.S. citizenship. As part of her sentence, she will give up her citizenship and may face fines and jail time.

Continue reading "Lebanese National Convicted Of Stealing FBI Secrets"

Posted at 9:01 AM
Posted to: Hezbollah, Lebanon, Middle East
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November 13, 2007

Violence Mars Uneasy Approach To Mideast Talks

Overnight raids in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip netted hundreds of Fatah activists in the area after days of clashes between the two Palestinian factions. A Fatah spokesman said 400 activists were rounded up; a Hamas official disputed that figure and said it had been fewer than 50.

The clashes began yesterday, after about 200,000 people marched at a Gaza rally to commemorate the third anniversary of the death of former Palestinian President Yasser Arafat. Palestinian factions have splintered since the longtime leader's death disrupted the uneasy status quo between the Fatah leader's more moderate party and the radical Hamas.

The rally was the largest since Hamas took over Gaza in June. Seven people have been killed and more than 50 injured in the clashes, according to Fatah representative Hazem Abu Shanab.

Continue reading "Violence Mars Uneasy Approach To Mideast Talks"

Posted at 11:21 AM
Posted to: Fatah, Hamas, Middle East, Palestinians
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November 12, 2007

Things That Are Banned In Iran...

...now include makeup. The "morality" crackdown continues.

Hat tip: Radar

Posted at 3:50 PM
Posted to: Iran, Middle East
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Help Wanted In Baghdad

USA Today has had an ad up for an Iraq correspondent for three weeks. Why so few takers? Hmm, let's see...

Still, it's a little surprising that a major daily like USAT is having so much trouble filling this job -- if that's indeed the case. (A call to the newspaper's spokeswoman was not immediately returned.) (UPDATE: The job has been filled, said a spokeswoman who admitted that applications were not exactly pouring in.) Journalists generally don't go into this field to cover town hall meetings, even if that's where many of them start off. The way the war has been run has proved incredibly frustrating to the reporters covering it, yet those same correspondents continue to return to the line of fire again and again.

Though every moment in Iraq is a pivotal one, now seems an especially keen time to spend on the ground. The rate of rocket attacks has dropped significantly, and the government says Iraqis who fled previous violence are starting to return home.

Continue reading "Help Wanted In Baghdad"

Posted at 2:58 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iraq, Media, Middle East, Military, President Bush
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November 09, 2007

Iran On Tap For Merkel's First Visit To The Ranch

Completing this week's U.S.-Old Europe bonding experience, German Chancellor Angela Merkel heads to Texas today to discuss a host of global issues in the rustic setting of the Bush family ranch.

Like President Bush's meeting with new French President Nicolas Sarkozy earlier this week, the Bush-Merkel talks will hinge primarily on Iran, as the president seeks to shore up U.S. allies against Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, told Reuters that "strategically," Merkel and the Bush administration "see eye-to-eye" in opposing Iran's plans to develop nuclear technology. "Tactically, there are some slight differences," he said, adding that the discussions this weekend are part of an ongoing effort and aren't likely to yield any major developments.

Merkel is no softie on Iran, but Bush is seeking stronger commitments from allies to take a hard line against Tehran if it continues to defy orders to stop its nuclear program. In its preview of her visit this weekend, Germany's Der Spiegel notes that Germans are concerned about the Bush administration's perceived "saber-rattling" on Iran. Calling Merkel "the queen of the backroom deal," the magazine writes that "German politicians at both ends of the political spectrum will expect her to voice clear opposition to further military escapades" when she meets with Bush.

Continue reading "Iran On Tap For Merkel's First Visit To The Ranch"

Posted at 3:33 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Bush Administration, Europe, Germany, Iran, Middle East, President Bush
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November 08, 2007

House May Take Up War Funding Tomorrow

The House could vote as early as tomorrow on a measure providing a $50 billion bridge fund to continue military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan for about four months, on the condition that troops be withdrawn from combat zones in Iraq by Christmas 2008.

"This is not a blank check for the president," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The funding is a little more than one-quarter of President Bush's $189.3 billion FY08 request, and Democratic leaders hesitated to approve that much given heavy opposition to the Iraq war. But Democrats changed course under pressure from the Pentagon, which fears a significant funding shortfall in January, and from Republicans ready to pounce at any sign of "shortchanging" the troops.

The measure's target date of Dec. 15, 2008, is nonbinding, meaning it could lose support from die-hard Iraq war opponents in the House. It also faces a steep hurdle in clearing the Senate, where the measure would be open to amendment and would need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.

"I think we should take it a step at a time," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who said the Senate probably would take up the bill next week. He declined to comment on whether he expected more support from Republicans.

"I have in the past thought that we would have more Republicans than... we did. I hope so," Reid said.

Continue reading "House May Take Up War Funding Tomorrow"

Posted at 6:08 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Asia, Congress, House, Iraq, Middle East, Senate
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November 05, 2007

Progress On The PKK-Turkish Front

UPDATED.

In a sign that tensions may be lessening between Turkey and Kurdish militants in northern Iraq, members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, today freed eight Turkish soldiers who were captured last month.

Diplomatic talks have been going on for weeks to try to avert a conflict, but a massive Turkish force was still amassing on the border and PKK rebels continued to partake in skirmishes with Turkish troops in the region. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice traveled to Turkey last week to reassure the government that the PKK rebels were a "common threat."

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in Washington today to meet with President Bush. Erdogan was seeking American support for action against the PKK, while Bush sought to convince the prime minister to hold off on a full-scale incursion.

Following the meeting, Bush and Erdogan exuded a united front before the press.

Continue reading "Progress On The PKK-Turkish Front"

Posted at 4:30 PM
Posted to: Europe, Iraq, Kurds, Middle East, Turkey
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November 01, 2007

Foreign Service Revolt Is Latest Headache For State

The bad news keeps mounting for the State Department this week. In addition to the furor over immunity deals granted to Blackwater USA guards in an internal agency investigation, diplomats are now staging a revolt over the department's threats of dismissal for officers who refuse to work at the massive U.S. Embassy in Iraq.

Foreign Service Director General Harry Thomas sent e-mails to diplomats around the world last week informing them that State would need to fill nearly 50 slots at the embassy next summer and that if the agency did not receive enough volunteers for the "directed assignments," it would have to begin forcing officers to serve there or face dismissal.

Tensions ran high at a department town hall meeting addressing the issue yesterday. With several hundred Foreign Service officers attending, senior officials heard many concerns about the forced Iraq postings and the agency's overall handling of its personnel in the volatile region. Diplomats complained of inadequate training and a lack of care for those who returned from service scarred by the experience of working in a war zone. They also said the embassy in Baghdad is too large and that dangerous conditions in the Green Zone mean employees must travel in heavily guarded convoys, which hinders their diplomatic efforts.

According to the Washington Post, the meeting came to an abrupt end when a man who claimed to be a 46-year veteran of the Foreign Service called Iraq "a potential death sentence" for State employees.

Continue reading "Foreign Service Revolt Is Latest Headache For State"

Posted at 3:32 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Iraq, Middle East
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The Rumsfeld Files: Flurries Of Fury

He's been gone from the Defense Department for almost a full year now, but the ghost of Donald Rumsfeld continues to haunt Washington. The Washington Post today devoted a sizable, above-the-fold portion of its front page to a report on "a series of internal musings and memos" the former defense secretary sent to his staff over the course of his six-year tenure.

The so-called "snowflakes," recently obtained by the Post, offer a treasure trove of Rumsfeldian bluster and chutzpah, focused mostly on Iraq and the war on terror. Some of the more interesting flakes center on Rumsfeld's attempts to counteract negative press about the war and the Pentagon.

Read the WaPo story here. And earlier today, Post reporter Dana Priest addressed some questions about the Rumsfeld memos during a live Web discussion.

Posted at 1:38 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Donald Rumsfeld, Iraq, Middle East, Terrorism
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Iraqi Civilian Death Toll Drops

The number of civilian deaths in the war in Iraq fell again last month, hitting a new low for the year. Exact counts vary, but according to figures from the Iraqi Health Ministry, 758 civilians were killed in October compared with a high of 2,076 in January.

Military fatalities also dropped down to 36, about half of September's figure and the lowest since March 2006.

Officials are giving credit to multiple sources for the decrease in casualties. One is the U.S. military surge, implemented last summer, which flooded Iraq with about 30,000 more American troops. Another is more success from Iraqi security forces in quelling insurgents and militia groups.

The Los Angeles Times posits some darker reasons, too. Sectarian segregation is growing, with once-mixed neighborhoods now fully Sunni or Shiite, so opportunities for violence are decreasing. Baghdad is also emptying out, with scared civilians fleeing the sectarian violence. About 2.25 million are internally displaced within Iraq and 2 million more have left the country, the Times reports, and the refugee crisis doesn't show signs of abating.

Posted at 9:00 AM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East
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October 31, 2007

White House Watch: Another BFF Bites The Dust

Karen Hughes, the president's pick to be the face of America in the Arab world after 9/11, will be back home in Texas by year's end. Today's announcement that she is stepping down hasn't inspired very much fanfare, leading us to suspect only a dim awareness in Washington that Hughes was still on the job.

Hughes, of course, is among a cadre of longtime advisers and confidantes that President Bush brought to Washington after they helped him win the 2000 election. After a brief stint as White House counselor at the start of his presidency, Hughes was lured back in March 2005 to be the new undersecretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs. Despite the job description's global scope, there was little question Hughes' main task would be damage control in the Middle East.

It was a puzzling though largely uncontroversial nomination. Hughes spoke not a lick of Arabic and had no background in Middle Eastern affairs, a handicap that became painfully obvious in her first public tour of the region. Hughes appeared to be caught flat-footed by the customs and beliefs of the people she was meeting with at practically every stop. Slate's Fred Kaplan implored her in a headline, "Stay Home!"

Continue reading "White House Watch: Another BFF Bites The Dust"

Posted at 6:06 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Middle East, President Bush
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October 30, 2007

Bush Vows 'Three Veto Bill Pileup'

President Bush is seeking to get out ahead of negative headlines this week by accusing the Democratic Congress of holding U.S. troops and poor children "hostage" as part of a "cynical" political strategy.

"They haven't seen a bill they could not solve without shoving a tax increase into it," Bush said derisively. He called the brief press conference outside the White House following a meeting with the top Republican House leaders: John Boehner, Roy Blunt and Adam Putnam.

The president's press conference ushered in the annual appropriations tug-of-war between the White House and Congress, an autumn rite by no means unique to this administration. Tensions are superheated this year, though, because the bills concern an increasingly unpopular war with the prospect of yet another unpopular war and renewal of health care funding for poor children.

Bush also plans to veto a $23.2 billion water resources bill that he says is excessive. The bill is overwhelmingly popular in both chambers, however, and it is all but guaranteed an override if Bush follows through on his threat by the end of this week.

Continue reading "Bush Vows 'Three Veto Bill Pileup'"

Posted at 9:49 AM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Congress, Economy, House, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, President Bush
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October 29, 2007

Operation Venti Non-Fat Soy Macchiato

Sent from a soldier with the 2nd Brigade, 101st Airborne Division, which is in Kuwait awaiting its third deployment to Iraq since 2003.

"I live in Clarksville, third largest city in Tennessee behind Nashville and Memphis.* It has a military base (Ft. Campbell) and a large college (APSU). The population of Clarksville is appx. 150,000. Clarksville has 2 Starbucks.

I am now deployed for OIF [Operation Iraqi Freedom] and in Camp Buehring Kuwait. Buehring is a training post in the middle of a desert. It is where units spend about two weeks waiting to go into Iraq. Average population appx. 5,000 Soldiers, sometimes less. Camp Buehring has two Starbucks."

*Clarksville is actually the fifth-largest city in Tennessee with a population of about 115,000.

Posted at 10:32 AM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East, Military
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Olmert Says Prostate Cancer Won't Impact Work

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced today that he will undergo surgery sometime in the next few months for a cancerous tumor in his prostate. During a surprise news conference, Olmert told reporters that the tumor was "microscopic" and he would not need radiation or chemotherapy to treat it, emphasizing that it would not affect his work and he would not step down from his position.

He also reminded the public that he was under no obligation to disclose private health matters, but he felt Israelis "had a right to know." Olmert took over as prime minister in January 2006, after his predecessor, Ariel Sharon, suffered a debilitating stroke.

Meanwhile, over the weekend, a Kuwaiti newspaper quoted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas as saying that Olmert's government is holding talks with Hamas, and the faction should "pluck up the courage and admit it." The Israeli government also tightened restrictions on the fuel supply flowing into the Hamas-controlled Gaza strip this weekend in response to recent rocket attacks.

Posted at 7:36 AM
Posted to: Hamas, Israel, Middle East, Palestinians
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October 26, 2007

Iraqi & Turkish Officials Continue Diplomatic Talks On PKK Crisis

Diplomatic efforts to mend a rift between the governments of Iraq and Turkey over how to deal with Kurdish rebels near the countries' border continued today amid airstrikes by Turkish forces on rebel positions in northern Iraq.

U.S. and Iraqi officials are hoping that the talks will help stave off a major Turkish incursion into Iraq to fight the Kurdistan Workers Party, a rebel separatist group that Turkey claims has been using northern Iraq as a safe haven from which to launch attacks. The Turkish parliament has already voted to approve such an incursion, and the government has assembled about 100,000 troops at the border already.

Today in Ankara, Iraqi diplomatic and defense officials met with Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan and Interior Minister Besir Atalay; U.S. officials were also present. Turkey has been pressuring Iraq and the United States to step up their efforts against the PKK. U.S. officials, meanwhile, have been pushing for a diplomatic solution rather than a Turkish invasion, which they fear could further hinder the already formidable task of stabilizing war-torn Iraq.

Continue reading "Iraqi & Turkish Officials Continue Diplomatic Talks On PKK Crisis"

Posted at 1:32 PM
Posted to: Iraq, Kurds, Middle East, Turkey
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October 25, 2007

U.S. Unveils Unilateral Sanctions Against Iran

UPDATED.

The Bush administration rolled out a new round of sanctions targeting Iran's military today, including designating the powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction and the Quds force -- a branch of the Revolutionary Guard in charge of foreign operations -- a supporter of terrorism.

The unilateral sanctions are the toughest on Iran since university students overran the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and sparked the Iranian hostage crisis 20 years ago. The current round of sanctions is unprecedented, the Washington Post, reports, because its adoption "marks the first time that the United States has tried to isolate or punish another country's military."

At the White House news conference with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice this morning, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson also announced moves against three Iranian banks, designating them as terror financiers.

Continue reading "U.S. Unveils Unilateral Sanctions Against Iran"

Posted at 2:30 PM
Posted to: Iran, Middle East
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October 24, 2007

State Department Security Chief Resigns

Richard Griffin, the State Department official in charge of diplomatic security, announced his resignation today.

According to an internal e-mail read to AP, Griffin gave no reason for his departure upon making the announcement at a weekly staff meeting.

A review panel created after the Sept. 16 shooting of several unarmed Iraqi civilians by Blackwater USA security guards concluded that there was insufficient oversight of private contractors by State Department security personnel. Griffin, the assistant secretary of state for diplomatic security, effectively employs the private guards hired to protect U.S. diplomatic employees in Iraq.

Following the shootings, which prompted the Iraqi government to order Blackwater employees out of the country, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice ordered new operating guidelines for contractors. Yesterday, the State Department announced that future incidents involving contractors could be referred to the Justice Department, and that the ground rules for security guards would be brought closer in line to those of the U.S. military, according to Jane's Defence Weekly.

Earlier this month, Rice ordered all Blackwater convoys to be outfitted with cameras and accompanied by a State Department security official.

Posted at 2:45 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Iraq, Middle East
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Reports: Eight Turkish Soldiers Captured, Iran Seizes Opportunity

U.S. and Iraqi officials are working quickly to appease an angry Turkish government after tensions on its southern border boiled over this week. Efforts to negotiate an end to the fighting, however, are further complicated by reports that Kurdish separatists have captured eight Turkish soldiers and that Tehran is leveraging resentment toward Washington and Baghdad to its advantage.

Photos of the alleged captives have been published by several news outlets. The Turkish government has not confirmed the claims by a group of Kurdish fighters that the soldiers, missing since an ambush on Sunday, were captured. Turkey authorized a cross-border incursion earlier this week against militants with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, who have been launching discrete attacks on Turkey for years. Forty-two Turkish civilians and soldiers have been killed by PKK fighters this month alone, Bloomberg News reports.

Turkey has been warning its allies in the U.S. and Iraq that if they did not clamp down on the PKK's attacks, the Turkish military would be sent to do the job. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have sought to persuade Ankara to approach the problem diplomatically, but in Turkey's view neither ally has acted forcefully enough. In August, the Pentagon admitted that American weapons issued to Iraqis had been used by PKK rebels in cross-border attacks against Turks.

Continue reading "Reports: Eight Turkish Soldiers Captured, Iran Seizes Opportunity"

Posted at 12:50 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Europe, Iran, Iraq, Kurds, Middle East, Turkey
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October 23, 2007

'We're Going To Lose You'

Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Michael Mullen is getting an earful from soldiers who are stressed by the 15/12 deployment schedule for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

"That year we're back, it's just not good enough," an Army captain told Mullen during a stop on a two-day tour of bases.

Army Times reports that the press withheld the soldiers' names so that they could speak freely in the Q&A session at Fort Sill in Oklahoma. The resounding message was that the military has to restore the 1:3 or 1:4 deployment schedule to give soldiers sufficient time to train and be with their families.

Continue reading "'We're Going To Lose You'"

Posted at 6:15 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Asia, Iran, Iraq, Michael Mullen, Middle East, Military
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Judge Declares Mistrial In Holy Land Case

Disagreements over jury verdicts resulted in a Dallas judge handing a mistrial to five defendants connected to a Muslim charity. High-ranking officials in The Holy Land Foundation -- once the largest Muslim charity in the U.S. and a frequent target of FBI surveillance -- were accused of aiding terrorists and acting as an arm of Hamas.

The jury initially returned yesterday with a mix of not-guilty and deadlocked verdicts on the more than 200 combined charges ranging from tax fraud to providing material support for terrorism. But during routine polling of the jurors to determine that their votes were final, two female jurors spoke up and said their votes were not accurately reflected.

Continue reading "Judge Declares Mistrial In Holy Land Case"

Posted at 7:58 AM
Posted to: Crime, Israel, Middle East, Palestinians, Terrorism
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October 22, 2007

Bin Laden Urges Iraqi Muslims To Unite

In a new audio recording purportedly made by Osama bin Laden, the terrorist mastermind called on warring Islamic factions to look past their differences.

"Some of you have been lax in one duty, which is to unite your ranks," bin Laden says, in a tape broadcast by Al Jazeera. "Beware of division... The Muslim world is waiting for you to gather under one banner."

The recording, titled "A Message To The People Of Iraq," seems directed at Sunni and Shiite extremists. The U.S. maintains a heavy presence in Iraq four years after the fall of Baghdad largely because of ethnosectarian violence between the groups. Al-Qaida in Iraq, a particularly violent Sunni Muslim group, has so alienated many Iraqi Sunnis that they have joined forces with U.S. fighters in the Anbar province. More recently, Iraqi Shiites have begun distancing themselves from Shiite militias, led by the Mahdi Army.

Continue reading "Bin Laden Urges Iraqi Muslims To Unite"

Posted at 4:45 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Iraq, Middle East, Terrorism
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Bush Pressures Congress To OK $196B War Budget

Seeking to head off a fight that hasn't yet begun, President Bush warned Democratic lawmakers not to resist new emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as he tacked on $46 billion to the $150.5 billion the White House had already requested for the new fiscal year.

Recalling recent reports on progress in Iraq, Bush said that the extra funding was "crucial to maintaining this policy of success." General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker appeared on Capitol Hill in September to tell lawmakers that the "surge" strategy was making headway in Iraq, and that as a result troops could be safely drawn down back to pre-surge levels.

Continue reading "Bush Pressures Congress To OK $196B War Budget"

Posted at 3:28 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Asia, Bush Administration, Congress, David Petraeus, House, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush
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October 17, 2007

Bush: Who You Calling Lame?

Vowing to "sprint to the finish" during his remaining 15 months in office, President Bush went before the White House press corps this morning armed with a laundry list of complaints about Congress' performance on domestic matters. Reporters, on the other hand, came armed with a flood of questions focused mainly on the president's own foreign policy agenda.

"There's little time left in the year," Bush warned in his opening statement. "And Congress has little to show for all the time that has gone by." He listed eight areas where Congress has either failed to act or compromise with the White House: health care, intelligence, the budget, education, housing, trade, veterans care and the judiciary.

Specifically, Bush urged the Democratic leadership to compromise with the White House on two contentious bills -- the expansion of the State Children's Health Insurance Program and the authorization of a controversial wiretapping program. The former has already earned a presidential veto, and the White House issued a fresh veto threat for the latter yesterday.

Continue reading "Bush: Who You Calling Lame?"

Posted at 1:55 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Congress, Health, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Palestinians, President Bush, Russia, Vladimir Putin
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October 16, 2007

DOD Opposes Afghan Reconstruction Oversight Measure

The Pentagon is urging House-Senate conferees on the FY08 defense authorization bill to drop a provision in the House measure that would create a special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction. The office would be modeled largely on the independent investigator examining rebuilding efforts in Iraq, where billions of dollars of contract waste and fraud have been uncovered.

In May, House Armed Services Chairman Ike Skelton, D-Mo., called the proposal one of his bill's most significant provisions, and stressed that the inspector general in Afghanistan would "ensure even greater accountability" of efforts there. But in a package of appeals on the authorization measure sent last week to the House and Senate Armed Services committees, DOD officials said they viewed the appointment of an Afghanistan investigator as a redundant move that would deplete the Pentagon's inspector general, who already is tasked with oversight there, of necessary personnel.

The Senate version of the bill also created the Afghanistan inspector general, but the Pentagon did not address that provision.

Continue reading "DOD Opposes Afghan Reconstruction Oversight Measure"

Posted at 5:54 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Asia, Congress, Iraq, Middle East, Military
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Superpower Watch: Picking Sides, Choosing Teams

Once again, the Bush administration is reminded that while it would be preferable to have the world at its back as it attempts to stabilize the Middle East, it simply does not. Iran and Russia have sealed an agreement among the Caspian Sea nations that "under no circumstances will they allow [the use of their] territories by third countries to launch aggression or other military action against any of the member states." Doesn't take a genius to figure out which third country might top that list.

This declaration accomplishes several things, none of which bode well for Washington's push for Iran to come clean on its nuclear program.

Continue reading "Superpower Watch: Picking Sides, Choosing Teams"

Posted at 1:36 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, China, Europe, IAEA, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Military, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Robert Gates, Russia, Terrorism, U.N., Vladimir Putin
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October 15, 2007

Putin Delays Iran Visit After All

UPDATED.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will be delaying his trip to Tehran amid concerns of an assassination plot, a news agency reported hours after Putin insisted he would arrive there tonight as scheduled.

According to AP, Iran's official news agency is reporting that "Putin will arrive in Tehran at the head of a delegation tomorrow morning." Neither government offered a detailed explanation.

Earlier today, Putin defiantly insisted that he would press on with the visit, despite intelligence that suicide bombers were targeting him in Tehran. "Of course I am going to Iran," Putin said after talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany. "If I always listened to all the various threats and the recommendations of the special services I would never leave home."

Russia's Interfax news agency had reported that security sources were picking up intelligence on a potential terrorist plot against Putin during his visit. An Iranian official dismissed the report as "part of a psychological war waged by enemies to disrupt relations between Iran and Russia."

Putin is scheduled to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a move akin to -- intentionally or not -- poking Washington in the eye.

Continue reading "Putin Delays Iran Visit After All"

Posted at 5:24 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Russia, Vladimir Putin
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Rice: Palestinian Statehood Now

In a sign that the Bush administration views a two-state Mideast solution as a critical accomplishment before the clock winds down to 2009, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that now was the time for the Palestinians to achieve statehood.

"Frankly, it's time for the establishment of a Palestinian state," Rice said today during a visit to the West Bank.

Rice appeared to indicate that she had grown weary of the negotiations process, which has been fraught with leadership changes and other stops and starts since President Bush rejuvenated Washington's role there in 2003.

Continue reading "Rice: Palestinian Statehood Now"

Posted at 12:14 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Fatah, Hamas, Israel, Middle East, Palestinians, President Bush, U.N.
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October 12, 2007

Let's Talk Before The Whole World Ends

A group of Muslim spiritual leaders and scholars from countries including Iran and Pakistan are reaching out to their Christian counterparts amid boiling conflicts between those two worlds. In an open letter [PDF] addressed to church leaders including Pope Benedict XVI, the Muslims warn that "the future of the world depends on peace between Muslims and Christians."

Muslims and Christians are enjoined to worship but one God and love their neighbors, the letter notes, and a 13-page treatise written by the scholars lists comparable passages of the Q'uran and the Bible. "Love of the [neighbor] is an essential and integral part of faith in God and love of God because in Islam without love of the [neighbor] there is no true faith in God and no righteousness," they write. "Without giving the [neighbor] what we ourselves love, we do no truly love God or the [neighbor]."

The document, released yesterday, already has its skeptics among those who believe Islam's leaders are unwilling to rid their institution of violent fundamentalists. Yet it is an unprecedented call for reconciliation at a time when the turbulent Middle East is the fulcrum of instability around the globe.

Continue reading "Let's Talk Before The Whole World Ends"

Posted at 6:27 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iraq, Middle East, Terrorism
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October 11, 2007

Could Marines Salvage Mission In Afghanistan?

The Los Angeles Times and the New York Times are reporting that the U.S. Marines Corps is requesting redeployment from Iraq to Afghanistan, where Taliban fighting has increased considerably. The reasons are not officially explicated, but there are a few obvious possibilities.

Now that Anbar province is relatively calm, the Marines sent there to wrest back control from Sunni insurgents seem mostly to be serving in an overwatch and training capacity, a role better suited for the Army. The LAT obtained an e-mail from one officer there, Lt. Col. Beau Higgins, noting the dramatic drop in attacks on U.S. forces. Higgins concluded, "It's critical that we stay here to continue to assist... but our role as fire fighters in the zone moving from hot spot to hot spot has truly gone."

The hallmarks of the USMC are rapid readiness and targeted strikes, not occupation. In 2004, for instance, the Marines were sent to calm the spiraling-out situation in Fallujah. The LAT reports that the 2nd Battalion, 5th Regiment returned from Anbar on Monday after a seven-month deployment without having lost one of their number; in an earlier deployment, the unit suffered 15 deaths.

The current military mission in Iraq is to replicate the successes of Anbar elsewhere. It's not clear what the mission now is in Afghanistan, mostly because it isn't talked about as much.

Continue reading "Could Marines Salvage Mission In Afghanistan?"

Posted at 1:23 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Asia, Bush Administration, Donald Rumsfeld, Iraq, Middle East, Military, Robert Gates
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October 10, 2007

The Armenian Genocide: When Purity Meets Pragmatism

Let's get this detail out of the way: The United States does not brook genocide. Maybe this country does not always go far enough to stop genocide where it occurs (Rwanda, Sudan), but it has not ignored, let alone denied, the mass extermination of an ethnic group since World War II. What the U.S. always does do in reaction to genocide is condemn the killing wherever it occurs.

So why the opposition to a nonbinding House resolution that compels the U.S. government to formally recognize the 1915-17 mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire as genocide -- something George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush did not do as commander in chief?

The answer, of course, is Turkey's resistance to the resolution. Almost anywhere else in the world, official government condemnation of genocide is an easy position for Washington to take. Not so with the Armenian genocide, because Turkey holds many cards, and the U.S. is in no position to strong-arm anyone it might still count as an ally in the war on terror.

Continue reading "The Armenian Genocide: When Purity Meets Pragmatism"

Posted at 3:50 PM
Posted to: Bill Clinton, Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Congress, EU, Europe, France, George H.W. Bush, House, Iraq, Israel, Kurds, Middle East, President Bush, Robert Gates, Senate, Turkey
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The Republicans Yuk It Up In Michigan

This is how low the bar is set for the 2008 Republican front-runners' debate performances: Don't screw up, and make us laugh at least once.

That's according to most of the news coverage, anyway. Of Fred Thompson's long-awaited debut in yesterday's GOP primary debate in Michigan, the general assessment is no, he didn't screw up, and yes, that one thing he said at the end was kind of funny.

"I've enjoyed watching these fellas," the former Tennessee senator said as things were winding down. "I've got to admit, it was getting a little boring without me."

Good line, were it not for the fact that the debate wasn't terribly exciting with him either. He didn't scuffle with any of his eight rivals there, so there were no fireworks. Nor, as Rich Lowry also observed, were any of the "Law & Order" star's lines very funny. Does it matter? Thompson's catching a lot of flak for a rocky campaign launch -- before CNBC aired the debate, Radar magazine went up with a YouTube-laden "blooper reel" feature -- but his ready-made support in the polls guarantees him top-contender status. That support, remember, was there even before he officially entered the race. Unless he goofs up horribly on the national stage, it isn't going away because of one disappointing debate performance.

Thompson's viability is rooted less in who he is than who he is not. So voters might be better served by also paying attention to how Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney fared, even though this was their umpteenth televised debate.

Continue reading "The Republicans Yuk It Up In Michigan"

Posted at 9:15 AM
Posted to: Campaigns, Democrats, Economy, Fred Thompson, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Iran, John McCain, Middle East, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, Taxes, WH 2008
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October 09, 2007

Soldiers Snatched In May Ambush Still Missing

The Fort Drum-based 2nd Brigade, 10th Mountain Division, is on its way back from Iraq -- but without two soldiers who've been missing for five months.

Spc. Alex Jimenez, 25, and Pvt. Byron Fouty, 19, were captured in an insurgent ambush on May 12, south of Baghdad. They have not been seen since then. Americans killed in captivity have been a prime source of propaganda for al-Qaida in Iraq, suggesting there is some chance that Jimenez and Fouty are still alive. In the face of little evidence indicating otherwise, the search for the missing soldiers continues.

"This is still our brigade's No. 1 priority," the brigade's commander, Col. Michael Kershaw, said of the missing soldiers on Friday. In June, the al-Qaida-linked Islamic State of Iraq claimed in a video that Jimenez and Fouty had been killed in the ambush. The soldiers' military ID cards were shown, but there was otherwise no proof that they were dead or even captured.

Continue reading "Soldiers Snatched In May Ambush Still Missing"

Posted at 5:02 PM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East, Military
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Contractors Fight Could Pose True Test Of Iraqi Sovereignty

Iraqi police are reporting that two women have been killed by private security guards for a civilian convoy in central Baghdad. The incident comes two days after the Iraqi government issued a report finding a Sept. 16 attack that killed 17 civilians and wounded 22 others was unprovoked.

Worrisomely for the Bush administration, the Iraqis seem determined to prosecute the Blackwater USA guards involved in that shooting, potentially setting a precedent for all future incidents, including today's.

Continue reading "Contractors Fight Could Pose True Test Of Iraqi Sovereignty"

Posted at 2:20 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iraq, Middle East
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October 05, 2007

Rice Implements New Rules For Blackwater

Following a preliminary report on the Sept. 16 shootings of several Iraqi civilians, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has ordered that all Blackwater convoys be outfitted with cameras. In addition, State Department security agents will accompany the convoys.

Rice's order only applies to Blackwater, not to other State contractors in Iraq including Triple Canopy and DynCorp. The FBI and State are both investigating the incident.

Reuters and CNN have more details.

Posted at 4:22 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Iraq, Middle East
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October 03, 2007

Polish Ambassador Injured In Baghdad Bombing

A car bomb hit a convoy of three SUVs carrying Polish officials this morning in a downtown Baghdad neighborhood, wounding Ambassador Gen. Edward Pietrzyk and several security guards. A bodyguard and an Iraqi civilian were killed in the blast.

CNN reports that Pietrzyk is in stable condition at the U.S. military hospital in Baghdad, and officials in Warsaw said the ambassador was not seriously injured.

Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski said today that his country would not withdraw its force in response to the attack. Poland has between 900 and 1,000 troops in Iraq, and its president announced last year that it would extend its military commitment there in support of the U.S.

Posted at 8:50 AM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East
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October 02, 2007

Blackwater CEO Confident -- And For Good Reason

In his testimony before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Blackwater USA chief Erik Prince defended his employees as patriotic veterans tasked with protecting Americans in hostile zones.

"Blackwater personnel supporting our overseas missions are all military and law enforcement veterans, many of whom have recent military deployments," said Prince, who founded Blackwater and is himself a former Navy SEAL. "No individual ever protected by Blackwater has ever been killed or seriously injured. There is no better evidence of the skill and dedication of these men."

The Democrats on the panel cited various reports in their portrayal of Blackwater as a lawless army whose hired guns have killed innocent civilians without repercussions. Indeed, Blackwater, which has a contract with the State Department, is not beholden to either Iraqi law or U.S. military law. And that's because Congress either forgot or did not bother to make it so.

Continue reading "Blackwater CEO Confident -- And For Good Reason"

Posted at 4:50 PM
Posted to: Afghanistan, Asia, Congress, Crime, David Petraeus, House, Iraq, Middle East, Military
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Israeli Military Acknowledges September Airstrike In Syria

For the first time since a Sept. 6 Israeli airstrike on Syrian soil that has been shrouded in secrecy, Israel's military censor is permitting discussion of the attack by Israeli officials.

"The military censor has authorized for the first time the publication of the fact that Israeli combat planes attacked a military target deep inside Syrian territory on September 6," Israeli army radio announced today. "It is the only element that the censor allowed to be published."

Despite the censor's permission, Israeli officials have so far remained tight-lipped about the incident. The Jerusalem Post reports that the country's "political echelon... was not consulted by the censor over its decision to lift its strict veil of secrecy over" the airstrike.

The decision came one day after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad publicly addressed the incident for the first time in an interview with BBC News. He said the strike showed Israel's "visceral antipathy towards peace" and affirmed his country's "right to retaliate." "Retaliate doesn't mean missile for missile and bomb for bomb," he added. "We have our means to retaliate, maybe politically, maybe in other ways."

AP and Haaretz have more on this story.

Posted at 2:25 PM
Posted to: Israel, Middle East, Syria
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Wyatt Admits To Role In Oil-For-Food Scandal

Jurors got a surprise yesterday in the trial of Oscar Wyatt: Well into the third week of testimony, the Texas oil mogul pleaded guilty to charges that he'd paid kickbacks to Saddam Hussein's government.

The octogenarian billionaire accepted a deal of an 18- to 24-month sentence for admitting to one count of wire fraud -- as opposed to the 70-year sentence he would have been handed if found guilty on all five counts. Wyatt had maintained his innocence since he was arrested in Houston two years ago.

Continue reading "Wyatt Admits To Role In Oil-For-Food Scandal"

Posted at 7:41 AM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East, U.N.
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October 01, 2007

Civilian And Military Deaths Down In Iraq

The number of violent deaths in Iraq has fallen to the lowest levels since February 2006, according to new reports from the Iraqi government and the U.S. Department of Defense.

The number of Iraqi civilians killed in September dropped to 884, less than half of the August count. That makes September the least violent month in Iraq since the bombing of the Golden Mosque, a sacred Shiite religious site, in February 2006 that set off waves of sectarian violence across the country.

Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the No. 2 commander of U.S.-led forces in Iraq, told reporters in Baghdad in late September that there has been a 50-percent drop in violence in Baghdad since January "and the trend continues to be down."

Continue reading "Civilian And Military Deaths Down In Iraq"

Posted at 10:57 AM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East, Military
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SNL Weighs In On The Ahmadinejad Love-Fest

UPDATED.

After the seemingly endless coverage of the Iranian president's recent visit to the Big Apple, Andy Samberg of "Saturday Night Live" injected some much-needed humor into the hype this weekend. See the hilarious results here. (The original YouTube link has been removed.)

Posted at 10:31 AM
Posted to: Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East
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September 28, 2007

New Vote On Iran Sanctions Delayed

UPDATED.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice did not go out of her way to hide her disappointment at the latest setback in U.S. efforts to clamp down further on Iran.

"The international community has to have a greater sense of urgency about some of these issues," she said, speaking to reporters at the U.N. this afternoon. "We have two unanimous Security Council resolutions in place on Iran. We're working on a third, and using that track to try to invigorate the negotiations track." Rice conceded that there was already a "certain level of cooperation in Iran."

Continue reading "New Vote On Iran Sanctions Delayed"

Posted at 3:25 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, China, Condoleezza Rice, EU, Europe, France, Germany, IAEA, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Terrorism, U.K., U.N.
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September 26, 2007

DOD Team To Investigate Security Contractors

Defense Secretary Robert Gates has ordered a Pentagon investigation of security contractors in Iraq after a deadly gunfight involving Blackwater employees raised questions about oversight of foreign contractors in Iraq.

AP reports that in a briefing today, Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said the initial round of answers to Gates' questions about the military's relationship with private contractors has "not been satisfactory" and that he is seeking a deeper probe into the matter.

Although he would not elaborate on the specifics of Gates' dissatisfaction with the investigation thus far, Morrell did say that a five-person team has already been sent to Iraq and "will talk to all the key players" there, including top U.S. commanders Gen. David Petraeus and Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno. The team is expected to report back to Gates by the end of the week.

Continue reading "DOD Team To Investigate Security Contractors"

Posted at 1:28 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, House, Iraq, Middle East, Military, Robert Gates
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U.N. General Assembly: Like Last Year, Only Worse

The astute Brits at the Economist called it.

By granting so many interviews to curious American journalists and agreeing to take questions from college students at Columbia, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made sure that this year's meeting of the U.N. General Assembly would revolve around him. It helps that his BFF in these parts, Venezuelan firebrand Hugo Chavez, sat this one out, which means Ahmadinejad's "no gays in Iran" statement remains the craziest (and most sinister) thing said all week.

Ahmadinejad put on his "serious" face (no smiling) yesterday when he delivered his U.S.-centric speech before the General Assembly. The American delegation didn't bother to stick around for its entirety, such was its predictability. If this scenario reminds you of last year's meeting at the U.N., it should. The bottom line for the Security Council has been no nuclear material for Iran, period. Yesterday, Ahmadinejad ensured that the U.N. will act to shut him down, one way or another.

Continue reading "U.N. General Assembly: Like Last Year, Only Worse"

Posted at 1:15 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, Chechnya, China, Condoleezza Rice, Hugo Chavez, IAEA, Iran, Iraq, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Russia, Terrorism, U.N.
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September 25, 2007

Bush's Other Legacy On Display At U.N.

President Bush called on the U.N. General Assembly to renew its focus on human rights, as he reminded increasingly distant member nations of America's outsized role in humanitarian work around the globe.

Placing the spotlight on the U.N.'s Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Bush told the audience, "The nations in this chamber have our differences. Yet there are some areas where we can all agree."

The president ticked off a laundry list of ills, some of them ancient, still plaguing the globe, from malaria to HIV/AIDS, starvation to closed markets, impositions on the freedom of speech and assembly, and "tyranny and violence."

The Universal Declaration is not being upheld, Bush said, "when innocent people are trapped in a life of murder and fear" or "when millions of children starve to death or die from a mosquito bite."

"Changing these underlying conditions is what the declaration calls the work of underlying freedom," he said.

Bush then turned his attention to the representatives of Myanmar.

Continue reading "Bush's Other Legacy On Display At U.N."

Posted at 12:17 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bill Clinton, Bush Administration, China, Climate Change, HIV/AIDS, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, President Bush, Russia, Terrorism, U.N.
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September 24, 2007

Liveblogging Ahmadinejad's Columbia University Speech

3:40. That's all for our liveblog coverage of Ahmadinejad's speech. Here are some questions to follow up on:

1) Will President Bollinger be called out for intellectual dishonesty after that introduction? At least one faculty member, professor of Iranian studies Hamid Dabashi, thought it hypocritical for Bollinger to invite Ahmadinejad to speak and then yell at him before he did.

2) How many prominent audiences does one Islamofascist dictator deserve? What Ahmadinejad had to say today wasn't that different from what he said to the Council of Foreign Relations last year, where experts on Iran and not students grilled him pretty hard on his positions on Israel, record on human rights, and so on. Speaking on CNN, Dabashi said, "In my own classes, I [will] have to undo what has been done today in order to continue their education."

We really can't blame the world for wanting to hear more from Ahmadinejad, though, not with the threat of a war with that country hanging over our heads. The central paradox of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is it's meant to strengthen the King Abdullah IIs and Fouad Sinioras. Instead, the influence of the Ahmadinejads appears to be growing.

3:12. On FOX, former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton. We didn't have time to transcribe, but here's the unsurprising gist: This visit was a stupid idea, our national security has been compromised, we've legitimized Ahmadinejad in the eyes of the world, they're going to attack us now.

3:11. On MSNBC, former U.N. Ambassador Bill Richardson, also a Democratic presidential candidate: "He's clearly here on a propaganda trip."

3:09. God bless Shepard Smith: "If you thought Ahmadinejad wasn't going to make news today, you were mistaken. Iran has no homosexuals."

Continue reading "Liveblogging Ahmadinejad's Columbia University Speech"

Posted at 4:00 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, President Bush
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This Charming Man: Ahmadinejad & The U.N.

Another opening of the U.N. General Assembly, another chance for America's foes to take a whack at President Bush on a world stage.

The star of this year's production is Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. His visit to Columbia University and his request to visit Ground Zero (did anybody really think there was any chance that would happen?) have ensured that the theme of this week's convention, global warming, will be eclipsed by an entirely different kind of heat.

So why the fuss now, when Ahmadinejad's audience before the Council of Foreign Relations last year generated so much less controversy? Easy -- we're going to war in Iran.

Not really. (We think.) The jaw-jaw over taking Iran's nuclear facilities out by force has ratcheted beyond a level many thought possible, given the U.S. entanglements in Iraq.

But anyone who caught Ahmadinejad's squinty-eyed, non-response responses on "60 Minutes" last night probably has a clue into why the West finds this charismatic leader so very maddening.

Continue reading "This Charming Man: Ahmadinejad & The U.N."

Posted at 1:40 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Terrorism
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September 21, 2007

Blackwater Returns Amid Questions About Private Contractors

UPDATED.

Blackwater USA, the private security contractor involved in a Baghdad shooting incident last weekend, is reportedly going back to work as normal this weekend.

Activity from the company had been suspended after an incident Sunday, during which U.S. and Iraqi officials agree that eight or more Iraqi civilians were killed by Blackwater guards who were trying to protect a diplomatic convoy. But that's where the stories diverge: U.S. officials claim the guards were responding to an attack on the convoy. (An American report is still pending, and officials are refusing to comment until the investigation is complete.)

The Iraqi government, on the other hand, claims the attack was unprovoked. In a new report on the incident, which the New York Times obtained yesterday, Iraq's Ministry of Interior says guards immediately began firing on a car that drove through a signal to stop in Baghdad's Nisour Square.

Continue reading "Blackwater Returns Amid Questions About Private Contractors"

Posted at 2:33 PM
Posted to: Iraq, Middle East
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U.S. & Israel Shared Intel On Syrian Nuke Target

North Korea was connected to a suspected nuclear facility in Syria that the Israeli military bombed earlier this month, and the Israeli government alerted President Bush before the strike, according to a story in the Washington Post this morning.

U.S. officials were "deeply troubled" by the idea that the North Koreans were helping a country affiliated with Iran, a potential nuclear threat, the Post continues, but "the White House opted against an immediate response because of concerns it would undermine long-running negotiations aimed at persuading North Korea to abandon its nuclear program."

"Ultimately, however, the United States is believed to have provided Israel with some corroboration of the original intelligence before Israel proceeded with the raid, which hit the Syrian facility in the dead of night to minimize possible casualties," sources told the Post.

Continue reading "U.S. & Israel Shared Intel On Syrian Nuke Target"

Posted at 8:54 AM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, Israel, Middle East, North Korea, Syria
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September 20, 2007

Bush Riffs On Iran, MoveOn And 'Missing' Rumsfeld

Proving yet again that his lame-duck status is the media's gain, President Bush treated the White House press corps to a freewheeling Q&A session this morning, in which the explainer in chief talked about the threat of war with Iran, that MoveOn ad, the GOP's record on race relations -- and even his feelings.

Before taking questions, though, the president scolded Democrats for failing to promptly renew a federal health insurance program for low-income children. "Unfortunately, instead of working with the administration to enact this funding increase to children's health care, Democrats have passed a bill they know will be vetoed."

Congressional negotiators are working to reconcile the House and Senate bills under threat of veto from Bush for provisions that raise the income ceiling for eligibility.

"One of the [Democratic] leaders said a veto would be a victory," Bush said, visibly irked. He was referring to Rep. Rahm Emanuel, who said this week that a White House veto of final SCHIP legislation might be read as opposition to insuring poor children, which would be a "political victory" for Democrats.

Bush said that he has backed SCHIP since his days as governor of Texas, but that he opposed offering federally funded health care to children from families earning $80,000. The income ceiling is actually not that high in either the Senate or House bills, though some states are permitted to issue waivers to families earning around that much. Democrats want to roll back a policy introduced by the White House last summer that prohibits SCHIP coverage for households earning two and a half times the poverty level, or $51,625 for a family of four. They contend that private insurance is prohibitively expensive for some middle-income households.

The president also said he opposed all new taxes, including the cigarette tax hike that would help fund SCHIP. "There's no need to raise taxes. I believe this is a step toward federalization of health care," Bush said. "Their proposal is beyond the scope of the program."

Continue reading "Bush Riffs On Iran, MoveOn And 'Missing' Rumsfeld"

Posted at 11:23 AM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Campaigns, Congress, David Petraeus, Donald Rumsfeld, Economy, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Republicans, Taxes, WH 2008
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Ahmadinejad Denied Ground Zero Visit

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won't get up close to the World Trade Center site when he visits New York City for a meeting of the U.N. General Assembly next week. Aides to the controversial Iranian president had requested that he be allowed to go to the site to lay a wreath in memory of the 2,700 victims of the 9/11 attacks.

White House hopefuls didn't miss the chance to pan the idea. Republican Rudy Giuliani, who was the city's mayor at the time of the attacks, issued a statement calling the idea of a visit "outrageous" and listing Ahmadinejad's connections to Osama bin Laden, insurgents in Iraq and pursuit of nuclear weapons.

At a campaign event in Florida, fellow Republican Mitt Romney expressed a similar sentiment: "Can you imagine the audacity, the shocking nerve, the chutzpah to suggest he would visit Ground Zero, the handiwork of terrorists of the very kind he supports?" New York Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton also called the idea "unacceptable."

But their protests were superfluous: According to city police, the request was denied because no one is allowed that close to the site. Ongoing construction means safety concerns for visitors.

Continue reading "Ahmadinejad Denied Ground Zero Visit"

Posted at 7:55 AM
Posted to: Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Terrorism
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September 19, 2007

Car Bomb Kills Anti-Syrian Pol In Beirut

UPDATED.

A car bomb in a Christian suburb of Beirut killed a prominent anti-Syrian lawmaker today, in what is now regarded as an assassination.

Antoine Ghanem, a member of the Christian Phalange party, died in the attack along with several others. BBC News and AP have confirmed at least six deaths in addition to Ghanem, and at least 20 people were wounded by the powerful car bomb. News footage showed several vehicles ripped apart and burning. Damage to nearby buildings extended to the top floors.

Ghanem's death marks the eighth assassination of an anti-Syrian political figure since 2005, and comes six days before a divisive presidential vote in the Parliament, AP reports. The BBC News reports that Ghanem "was a member of the governing 14 March Movement and his death has reduced the bloc's majority in the Lebanese Chamber of Deputies to just two." It is believed that pro-Syrian forces have been picking off political foes in that body to reduce the ruling party's majority.

Continue reading "Car Bomb Kills Anti-Syrian Pol In Beirut"

Posted at 2:12 PM
Posted to: Lebanon, Middle East, Syria, Terrorism
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September 18, 2007

In Case You Missed It...

... we're going to war with Iran. France is on board, too. (With us, not Iran.)

What?

The surreality of global relations this week is enough to make us wonder if we're trapped inside one of John Bolton's fevered dreams. Let's untangle this web of crazy carefully, lest all our heads collectively explode.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is now seeking to assure allies that his country will "negotiate, negotiate, negotiate" before resorting to the option of war with Iran. On Sunday, the socialist ignited a firestorm when he told an interviewer, "We must prepare for the worst," adding, "The worst, sir, is war."

Kouchner said that France was "preparing" itself for the prospect of war in the event efforts to dismantle Iran's nuclear program were unsuccessful.

En route to a meeting with his counterpart in Moscow today, Kouchner sought to dial back his earlier remarks. "I do not want it said that I'm a warmonger. My message was one of peace, serious and determined," he told traveling reporters. Later, he blamed the media for running wild with what he'd said on Sunday. "As usual with journalists, they take one phrase and you don't know what came after," he said on a Russian radio talk show.

That's fair. Then again, maybe France picked a really bad time to propose Germany dump its historical baggage and dive into the nukes business.

Continue reading "In Case You Missed It..."

Posted at 6:30 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, China, Europe, France, Germany, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Syria, Terrorism, U.K., U.N.
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September 17, 2007

Blackwater Incident Highlights U.S. Dependence On Contractors

One question immediately comes to mind following the Iraqi government's decision to give U.S. contractor Blackwater USA the boot: Can they do that?

Iraq's government is pretty much sovereign in name only, despite what anyone says, because of its existential dependency on the United States. The U.S. relies heavily on contractors like the North Carolina-based Blackwater, which provides security for American diplomats there, including Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

If the U.S. wants those services continued, the trick will be to dissuade the Iraqis from revoking Blackwater's contract without appearing to have bullied them into a reversal.

Continue reading "Blackwater Incident Highlights U.S. Dependence On Contractors"

Posted at 5:04 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, David Petraeus, Iraq, Middle East, Military
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Iran Fumes Over France's Nuke Warning

Iran is set to be the focus of discussions at both a Moscow meeting and the annual IAEA summit today, but a flare-up from French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner already has Iran on the defensive.

Kouchner commented that if Tehran possessed a nuclear weapon, it would pose a "real danger for the whole world," and the EU should prepare sanctions aimed at Iran's nuclear program even if the U.N. isn't ready to do so. Sanctions against Iran will be discussed among the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council in talks set for Friday.

Iran's official media responded angrily to Kouchner's comments, accusing the French government of wanting to "copy the White House" and French President Nicolas Sarkozy of taking on "an American skin."

Agence France-Presse has more on today's story, and The Gate has recent coverage of the international community's evolving attitudes toward sanctions against Iran.

Posted at 8:18 AM
Posted to: Europe, France, Iran, Middle East
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September 14, 2007

Bush's Iraq: The Future Is Now

The closest most Americans get to a frontline view of the war are the accounts of journalists on the ground. Increasingly, reporters are having trouble keeping their anger and frustration over the state of affairs in Iraq below the surface.

Last night, CNN's Michael Ware could not contain his disbelief after President Bush's address to the nation on the war.

"My first impression is -- wow," Ware responded after host Anderson Cooper asked for reaction to the speech. "It's one thing to return to the status quo, to the situation we had nine months ago with 130,000 U.S. troops stuck here for the foreseeable future. It's another thing to perpetuate the myth" of a stabilized Iraq.

The Aussie native proceeded to swiftly rebut some claims the president made during his prime-time address. "Let me go down this list of what the president said. That 'if America were to be driven out of Iraq, extremists of all strains would be emboldened.' They are now. 'Al-Qaida could gain new recruits and new sanctuaries.' They have that now. 'Iran would benefit from the chaos and be encouraged in its efforts to gain nuclear weapons and dominate the region.' It is now. 'Iraq could face a humanitarian nightmare.' It does now. And that 'we would leave our children to face a far more dangerous world.' That's happening now. That's 'wow.'" (Here's the YouTube video.)

Ware, for you cable news haters, was Time magazine's Baghdad bureau chief before joining CNN in June 2006, smack-dab in the middle of the raging insurgency that nearly engulfed the entire country.

Continue reading "Bush's Iraq: The Future Is Now"

Posted at 6:19 PM
Posted to: David Petraeus, Iraq, Middle East, Military, Terrorism
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Report: Germany Wavers, U.S. Revives Iran Planning

About a month ago, we wondered why White House officials were leaking word that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps was to be designated a terrorist organization. Looks like we may have an answer.

Reuters reports that the leak may have been a hawkish attempt to goad the State Department into taking a tougher line on Tehran. The White House alleges Iran is arming and funding Shiite insurgents in Iraq, compounding existing frustration over Iran's nuclear ambitions. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has mostly laughed off U.N. economic sanctions aimed at his uranium enrichment program.

Now, there are indications the sanctions process may have hit a roadblock.

Continue reading "Report: Germany Wavers, U.S. Revives Iran Planning"

Posted at 11:41 AM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, China, EU, Europe, France, Germany, IAEA, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Russia, Terrorism, U.N.
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September 13, 2007

Sunni Leader And U.S. Ally Killed In Iraq

A key Sunni leader who cooperated with the U.S. was killed by insurgents in Iraq today. AP reports that Sheik Abdul-Sattar Abu Risha and two of his personal bodyguards died when a roadside bomb exploded near his home in Ramadi, capital of Iraq's Anbar province.

Abu Risha was the leader of the Anbar Salvation Council, also called the "Anbar Awakening," an alliance of Sunni Arab tribes that have joined with American forces and the Iraqi government in an effort to reclaim the overwhelmingly Sunni province from al-Qaida in Iraq. The group has helped restore peace and order to Anbar, once considered by the U.S. to be firmly in the hands of the insurgency.

The group has been heralded by supporters of the war as an example of success in Iraq and a role model for the rest of the country. Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, testifying this week before Congress, frequently cited Anbar as evidence of a new bottom-up reconciliation process that they hope will spread to other provinces.

Continue reading "Sunni Leader And U.S. Ally Killed In Iraq"

Posted at 1:27 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush, Terrorism
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September 12, 2007

Not An Open-Ended Commitment. Just Really Bloody Long.

President Bush is expected to confirm tomorrow night that he will follow Gen. David Petraeus' and Ambassador Ryan Crocker's recommendations for the Iraq war. Get ready for a long, hard slog through this political season.

The dominant feeling on the Hill today is that after an agonizingly long five months of waiting for the Petraeus-Crocker report to arrive, nothing has changed with regard to a way out of Iraq. The "surge" strategy is working, lawmakers were told, but only in part. The missing link is national political reconciliation, and we still don't know how to get there. In summary: Give us more time.

Not good enough, appears to be the conclusion of most Democrats and even some Republicans. Their objection is twofold.

Continue reading "Not An Open-Ended Commitment. Just Really Bloody Long."

Posted at 7:53 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Congress, Constitution, David Petraeus, Iraq, Middle East, Military, President Bush
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A U.S. Mission Shift In Iraq?

In his testimony before House and Senate panels this week, Army Gen. David Petraeus urged a deliberative approach for shifting security responsibilities to the nascent Iraqi army, but it is not clear he will have the last word on timing.

Some top military and civilian officials are privately advocating that the Iraqis be given greater control over the primary U.S. mission in Iraq -- securing the population from insurgent and sectarian attacks -- on a faster timetable than Petraeus appears ready to embrace, reports Elaine M. Grossman of Global Security Newswire.

Grossman's article on a potential U.S. mission change in Iraq is available at NationalJournal.com for free. And in today's Poll Track (subscription), a new survey reveals Americans are resistant to a rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from