February 26, 2008

North Koreans Reportedly Love 'Layla'

The Financial Times is reporting that the North Korean government has invited Eric Clapton to perform. The invitation comes on the heels of a historic visit by the New York Philharmonic to the Hermit Kingdom.

Judging by the New York Times' account of the intensely emotional concert, we can't even begin to imagine how "Slowhand" will be received. That is, by those North Koreans who have actually been permitted to listen to the British guitar icon's music.

FT reports that Clapton agreed to a concert "in principle," although his reps have yet to confirm it. Rock and pop are banned in North Korea. Some will have fun imagining Kim Jong Il rocking out to "Cocaine" -- but AP reports that his son, Kim Jong Chol, is the family's Clapton fan.

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Posted at 3:31 PM
Posted to: Asia, Japan, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, South Korea
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December 27, 2007

Breaking: Benazir Bhutto Killed In Attack

UPDATED.

Outraged supporters of Benazir Bhutto have taken to the streets following confirmation that the Pakistani opposition leader was assassinated today, with at least one province placed on emergency alert.

Bhutto had just spoken at a campaign rally in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad, and had gotten into a car when a gunman opened fire. The apparent assassin then blew himself up. There are conflicting reports on how she was killed. Some witnesses said she had been shot in the neck and chest, while a doctor at the hospital that treated her told the New York Times she had shrapnel wounds but would not confirm she had been directly shot.

At least 15 other people were also killed in the attack, according to various news reports. "Police in Sindh have been put on red alert," a police official told Reuters, referring to Bhutto's home province. "We have increased deployment and are patrolling in all the towns and cities, as there is trouble almost everywhere."

Television footage is showing mobs of people setting fires and destroying property in the streets.

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Posted at 12:52 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Bill Richardson, Bush Administration, Campaigns, Democrats, John McCain, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, President Bush, Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, Terrorism, WH 2008
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December 05, 2007

Bush: U.N. Security Council On Board With Iran Policy

President Bush sought today to quell skepticism over his administration's Iran policy following a new U.S. intel report [PDF] stating that the regime most likely stopped pursuing nuclear arms four years ago.

Speaking to reporters on a snowy tarmac in Nebraska, Bush said, "On the way out here I spoke with my team, who gave me a report on conversations the secretary of state and national security advisor have had over the last couple of days with their counterparts in the U.K., Germany, France and Russia. These countries understand that the Iranian nuclear issue is a problem, and continues to be a problem, that must be addressed by the international community."

In a press conference yesterday, Bush said that his administration's policy on Iran -- that it must disclose all about its nuclear activities and cease enriching uranium or face consequences as severe as military force -- remains the status quo, despite the National Intelligence Estimate's conclusions. But the intel community's assessment that Iran stopped pursuing nukes out of fear it would meet the fate of neighboring Iraq has led analysts to conclude that Washington no longer has the leverage it requires to get its P5+1 partners in the U.N. to keep pressure on Tehran.

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Posted at 11:03 AM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Terrorism
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December 03, 2007

Iran Watch: Over Before It Even Began?

Just when we thought war with Iran was inevitable, along comes a new National Intelligence Estimate telling us: Never mind!

"We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program," the declassified version of the report [PDF] reads. But then: "We also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."

What to make of all this?

The U.S. intelligence community believes "with moderate-to-high confidence" that Iran currently does not possess nuclear weapons. On the other hand, we know North Korea has as many as 10 bombs; it tested one last year. So why has the Bush administration been pointing all of its guns at Iran? Because of the neighborhood it's in. A potentially nuclear-armed Iran spells more immediate trouble for U.S. interests than a definitely nuclear-armed North Korea -- 28,000 U.S. troops on the peninsula notwithstanding.

Democrats and conservatives alike are highly critical of the different policy tracks President Bush has taken on these two problems. While the NIE indicates that the White House will have to lay off a bit on its rhetoric toward Iran, it seems that total transparency (with regard to IAEA inspectors, etc.) is still the baseline.

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Posted at 4:05 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Iraq, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Terrorism
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October 16, 2007

Superpower Watch: Picking Sides, Choosing Teams

Once again, the Bush administration is reminded that while it would be preferable to have the world at its back as it attempts to stabilize the Middle East, it simply does not. Iran and Russia have sealed an agreement among the Caspian Sea nations that "under no circumstances will they allow [the use of their] territories by third countries to launch aggression or other military action against any of the member states." Doesn't take a genius to figure out which third country might top that list.

This declaration accomplishes several things, none of which bode well for Washington's push for Iran to come clean on its nuclear program.

Continue reading "Superpower Watch: Picking Sides, Choosing Teams"

Posted at 1:36 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, China, Europe, IAEA, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Military, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Robert Gates, Russia, Terrorism, U.N., Vladimir Putin
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October 03, 2007

Is Kim Jong Il Coming In From The Cold?

It's a banner week for Korean diplomacy. The yearslong six-party negotiations have at last resulted in a promise by North Korea to disable all of its nuclear facilities by the end of the year. And in separate talks, the two Koreas agreed to stop pointing weapons at each other (figuratively, though, not literally).

One can't blame the Wall Street Journal for optimistically comparing this week's events (subscription) to the thaw between the West and Libya, which voluntarily gave up its nukes and made sufficient amends to be taken off Washington's list of state sponsors of terrorism. As the Journal notes, the world needs a bit of this kind of good news, considering the gathering storm over Iran.

But there may be a cynical devil lurking over many a Korea-watcher's shoulder. And his name is former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton.

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Posted at 4:12 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, South Korea, Terrorism
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October 02, 2007

Kim, Roh Meet, But To What Effect?

Not far from the demilitarized zone that divides North and South Korea are gigantic signs facing the north, beckoning the oppressed citizenry there to come to the other side, "where life is happy."

If the Bush administration is frustrated at Seoul's seeming dearth of anger toward its northern neighbor, this is why: The north-south divide between the Koreans, one of the world's most homogenous people, is to this day a gaping hole in the national psyche. Some South Koreans are haunted by long-lost relatives who wound up stuck on the wrong side of the 38th parallel. Others, particularly those too young to remember the war, are sick of what they increasingly view as American paternalism and want the Koreas to sort out their affairs for themselves.

That's among the reasons lame-duck South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun has embarked on his first-ever visit with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il, the object of so much scorn and ridicule elsewhere in the world. A little paunchier and with fewer curls in that famous coiffure, Kim was on hand to greet Roh in Pyongyang today, despite previous announcements he wouldn't meet with his visitor until later.

Buoyed by the North's softening on its nuclear program, Roh seems intent on coming away with results, whether it's a step toward officially ending the 1950-1953 war or another guarantee Pyongyang is dropping its nuclear program. But the time for a "sunshine policy" toward the north, a bane of both the Bush and Clinton State Departments, may be coming to an end.

Continue reading "Kim, Roh Meet, But To What Effect?"

Posted at 6:43 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bill Clinton, Bush Administration, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, South Korea, Terrorism
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September 28, 2007

New Vote On Iran Sanctions Delayed

UPDATED.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice did not go out of her way to hide her disappointment at the latest setback in U.S. efforts to clamp down further on Iran.

"The international community has to have a greater sense of urgency about some of these issues," she said, speaking to reporters at the U.N. this afternoon. "We have two unanimous Security Council resolutions in place on Iran. We're working on a third, and using that track to try to invigorate the negotiations track." Rice conceded that there was already a "certain level of cooperation in Iran."

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Posted at 3:25 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, China, Condoleezza Rice, EU, Europe, France, Germany, IAEA, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Terrorism, U.K., U.N.
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September 26, 2007

U.N. General Assembly: Like Last Year, Only Worse

The astute Brits at the Economist called it.

By granting so many interviews to curious American journalists and agreeing to take questions from college students at Columbia, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made sure that this year's meeting of the U.N. General Assembly would revolve around him. It helps that his BFF in these parts, Venezuelan firebrand Hugo Chavez, sat this one out, which means Ahmadinejad's "no gays in Iran" statement remains the craziest (and most sinister) thing said all week.

Ahmadinejad put on his "serious" face (no smiling) yesterday when he delivered his U.S.-centric speech before the General Assembly. The American delegation didn't bother to stick around for its entirety, such was its predictability. If this scenario reminds you of last year's meeting at the U.N., it should. The bottom line for the Security Council has been no nuclear material for Iran, period. Yesterday, Ahmadinejad ensured that the U.N. will act to shut him down, one way or another.

Continue reading "U.N. General Assembly: Like Last Year, Only Worse"

Posted at 1:15 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, Chechnya, China, Condoleezza Rice, Hugo Chavez, IAEA, Iran, Iraq, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Russia, Terrorism, U.N.
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September 24, 2007

This Charming Man: Ahmadinejad & The U.N.

Another opening of the U.N. General Assembly, another chance for America's foes to take a whack at President Bush on a world stage.

The star of this year's production is Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. His visit to Columbia University and his request to visit Ground Zero (did anybody really think there was any chance that would happen?) have ensured that the theme of this week's convention, global warming, will be eclipsed by an entirely different kind of heat.

So why the fuss now, when Ahmadinejad's audience before the Council of Foreign Relations last year generated so much less controversy? Easy -- we're going to war in Iran.

Not really. (We think.) The jaw-jaw over taking Iran's nuclear facilities out by force has ratcheted beyond a level many thought possible, given the U.S. entanglements in Iraq.

But anyone who caught Ahmadinejad's squinty-eyed, non-response responses on "60 Minutes" last night probably has a clue into why the West finds this charismatic leader so very maddening.

Continue reading "This Charming Man: Ahmadinejad & The U.N."

Posted at 1:40 PM
Posted to: Bush Administration, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Terrorism
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September 18, 2007

In Case You Missed It...

... we're going to war with Iran. France is on board, too. (With us, not Iran.)

What?

The surreality of global relations this week is enough to make us wonder if we're trapped inside one of John Bolton's fevered dreams. Let's untangle this web of crazy carefully, lest all our heads collectively explode.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is now seeking to assure allies that his country will "negotiate, negotiate, negotiate" before resorting to the option of war with Iran. On Sunday, the socialist ignited a firestorm when he told an interviewer, "We must prepare for the worst," adding, "The worst, sir, is war."

Kouchner said that France was "preparing" itself for the prospect of war in the event efforts to dismantle Iran's nuclear program were unsuccessful.

En route to a meeting with his counterpart in Moscow today, Kouchner sought to dial back his earlier remarks. "I do not want it said that I'm a warmonger. My message was one of peace, serious and determined," he told traveling reporters. Later, he blamed the media for running wild with what he'd said on Sunday. "As usual with journalists, they take one phrase and you don't know what came after," he said on a Russian radio talk show.

That's fair. Then again, maybe France picked a really bad time to propose Germany dump its historical baggage and dive into the nukes business.

Continue reading "In Case You Missed It..."

Posted at 6:30 PM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, China, Europe, France, Germany, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, Syria, Terrorism, U.K., U.N.
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September 14, 2007

Report: Germany Wavers, U.S. Revives Iran Planning

About a month ago, we wondered why White House officials were leaking word that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps was to be designated a terrorist organization. Looks like we may have an answer.

Reuters reports that the leak may have been a hawkish attempt to goad the State Department into taking a tougher line on Tehran. The White House alleges Iran is arming and funding Shiite insurgents in Iraq, compounding existing frustration over Iran's nuclear ambitions. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has mostly laughed off U.N. economic sanctions aimed at his uranium enrichment program.

Now, there are indications the sanctions process may have hit a roadblock.

Continue reading "Report: Germany Wavers, U.S. Revives Iran Planning"

Posted at 11:41 AM
Posted to: Asia, Bush Administration, China, EU, Europe, France, Germany, IAEA, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, President Bush, Russia, Terrorism, U.N.
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August 20, 2007

Survey: Foreign Policy Wonks Not So Keen On The Surge

The roller coaster ride that is the public debate over the Iraq troop surge just got a bit bumpier. In recent weeks, a growing number of military experts, former skeptics and even some high-profile Democratic lawmakers seemed to be coming around to President Bush's controversial decision to raise U.S. troop levels in certain areas of Iraq this year. And the apparent growing body of evidence showing that the surge was, in fact, helping to quell the violence there seemed to be giving hope to the American public, with opinion polls showing small bumps in confidence on the security front.

But a new survey shows the nation's top foreign policy experts singing another tune. The third Terrorism Index compiled by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress reveals deep concerns within the expert community about the Bush administration's policies in Iraq and the larger war on terrorism thus far.

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Posted at 4:20 PM
Posted to: Al-Qaida, Asia, Iraq, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, Pakistan, Terrorism
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July 25, 2007

Gadhafi: Still A Menace?

Libya's release of six Bulgarian medics who had been sentenced to die has earned that country loads of goodwill from Europe and the U.S. France's pledge of $400 million in compensation for the families who allege the group infected their children with HIV helped secure the deal; meanwhile, the EU is now preparing a substantial aid package for the northern African nation. President Bush recently named the first U.S. ambassador to Libya in more than three decades, and today, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said she looked forward to paying Tripoli a visit soon.

It's an odd reversal for a nation once considered to be a sponsor of terrorism. In the 1980s, Moammar Gadhafi was right up there with the late Ayatollah Khomeini on America's enemies list. An alliance of conservatives and human rights groups whose memories stretch back to the 1980s aren't happy with the turnabout.

Gadhafi's decision to give up his nuclear weapons logically precipitated warmer relations with the West, but the Wall Street Journal balks: "The blackmail habit is hard to shake, and rewarding a dictator for hostage-taking is fraught with moral hazards." A director of U.S.-based Physicians for Human Rights complained, "This is really an outrageous case, in which the lives of these nurses and medic were literally ransomed for $400 million.... There is nothing to prevent the future scapegoating of foreign health workers and holding them hostage in exchange for foreign aid."

Indeed, the West's embrace of Gadhafi comes as Taliban militants hold a South Korean church group hostage in Afghanistan. One was killed earlier today.

Continue reading "Gadhafi: Still A Menace?"

Posted at 7:23 PM
Posted to: Africa, Bush Administration, Condoleezza Rice, Europe, France, Libya, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Tony Blair, U.K.
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July 16, 2007

North Korea Shuts Nuclear Reactor. Now What?

The nuclear watchdog of the U.N. has confirmed that North Korea shut down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, nearly five years after the reclusive communist nation defiantly sparked a WMD standoff with the United States. Time for high-fiving in the White House, right?

Only if you've got a short memory. Washington has been down this road with dictator Kim Jong-il before, and while there's a startling amount that the U.S. doesn't know about the Dear Leader, one thing is certain: Kim isn't going to make the de-nuclearization process easy.

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Posted at 7:28 PM
Posted to: IAEA, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism
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April 20, 2007

Nuke Watch: Stops And Starts In 'Axis'

North Korea reaffirmed its commitment to the deal struck with the West over its nuclear program today as Iran inched closer to its dream of being a full-fledged nuclear power.

Continue reading "Nuke Watch: Stops And Starts In 'Axis'"

Posted at 11:43 AM
Posted to: Nuclear Weapons
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